climate change water.ppt

8/12/2019 Climate Change Water.ppt

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Climate Change, Water Resources &

Deep CO2 Sequestration

Graham E. Fogg

Dept. of Land, Air and Water Resources

Hydrologic Sciences Graduate Group

HYD/SAS 10

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Outline Current CA water resources.

Potential effects of climate change on

water resources.

New paradigms in water resources

management.

CO2sequestration in the deep

subsurface.


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3CA Water Plan 2005

4CA Water Plan 2005


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5CA Water Plan 2005

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Likely Climate Change Effects

on CA Water Resources

More precipitation, less snow.

Greater winter flooding hazard.

Less available water because of timing andless capture by reservoirs.

Greater stress on groundwater. But moregroundwater recharge?

Sea level rise -- Impacts on Sac. - San Joaquin Bay-Delta

Impacts on coastal groundwater basins


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Likely Effects Globally (IPCC, April 2007)

By 2050 wetter (10-40%) in high latitudes andsome wet tropical areas; drier in mid-latitudesand in dry tropics.

Drought-affected areas will expand.

Higher risk of extreme precipitation eventsand flooding.

Reduced flow from glacial melt, upon which

1/6 of population depends. 100s of millions of people exposed to

increased water stress.

CA Water Plan 2005


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CA Water Plan 2005

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CA Climate Change Center (2006)


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11Zhu, Jenkins & Lund (2006)

Water AvailabilityModeling Results

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Water Availability in CA (Zhu, Jenkins & Lund, 2006)


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Sacramento-San Joaquin

Bay-Delta System

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Sacramento-San Joaquin Bay Delta System


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15Cayan et al. (2006)

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Delta Elevations

(Black is below

sea level)

http://www.regis.berkeley.edu/baydelta.html


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Flooding


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Sutter Bypass, Sutter Co., 1997 flood

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From Driscoll (1986)

Discharge

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Water Availability in CA (Zhu, Jenkins & Lund, 2006)

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High-Resolution Subsurface

Characterization for Optimal

Groundwater Reservoir

Management and Protection


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31Orange Co., CA (Tompson, Carle,

Rosenberg, and Maxwell, 1999)

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Where Paleosols Channeled Out,

Vertical Flow Enhanced


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Local Zones of Groundwater-Surface Water Interconnection, Cosumnes River, CA

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Groundwater Age Distribution &

Sustainability


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City of Davis, CA Well Data,


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Why do Societies

Fail to Address

Fatal Problems? Failure to anticipate a

problem before itarrives.

Failure to perceive aproblem after it hasarrived. Creeping normalcy

[Groundwater quality]amnesia.

Monitoring

Failure to try to solve theproblem.

Failed attempts to solvethe problem.

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39CO2Sequestration in the subsurface

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Prospective Sedimentary Basins for CO2Storage


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44Orange Co., CA (Tompson, Carle,

Rosenberg, and Maxwell, 1999)


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Summary

Major decreases in CA water supply likely, withgreatest impacts on agriculture.

High-resolution characterization andmanagement of groundwater mightsubstantially mitigate the problem.

Flooding will be worse, but could be used toenhance groundwater storage.

Declining groundwater quality in many areaswill jeopardize subsurface storage and

recovery feasibility or efficiency. Deep CO2sequestration is feasible, but

demands substantial advances in subsurfacecharacterization.

climate change water.ppt

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