climate change & water resources: impact and adaptation

8/9/2019 Climate Change & Water Resources: Impact and Adaptation

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Climate Change & Water ResourcesImpact and adaptation

Dr. Guoqing WANG /Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, MWR

Research Center for Climate Change, MWR

March 25, 2010, Beijing


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Climate Change and Water Resources

Impact Assessment for Water Resources

Adaptative Strategies and Priorities

Contents


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Global Temperature /

Global annual mean temperature: +0.74 /0.74

The warmest decade: 1990s / 209010

Recent 11 years rank among the 12 warmest years / 1860

121119952006


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Temperature change in China /

Similar rising trend to global temperature / Temperature rise during the last 100yrs: 0.5~0.8 / 100

0.5~0.8

Rising rate during the last 50yrs: 0.22/10a / 50

0.22/10a


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Precipitation change in China

Trend ratios of precipitation during 1951-2002

Western: Increase

Southern: Increase

Increasing

Decreasing

Decreasing

Increasing

Northern: Decrease

Northeastern: Decrease


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Changes in 60mins rainfall

before and after 1980

Changes of extreme rainstorm events /

Short duration rainfall intensity: Increasing /Kuanping, Shanxi: 1998.071300mm/6-7hr

Zhanjiang, Guangdong: 2007.081188mm/24hr Rain

days of extreme rainstorms: Increasing /

Trend rate of rain days of

extreme rainstorms


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667mm

118mm

35mm

84%

12%

4%

Annual runoff depth: 288mm

288mmSurface water: 2737.5bm3

2737.5bm3

Water Resources in China /

Mountain

AreasPlain

areas

Overlap: 31.8 bm3

176.5 bm3677.2 bm3

Ground water: 821.9bm3

821.9bm3

82%

18%


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Characteristics of WR /

Uneven distribution in time and space/: 80%

Low water occupation per capita/< 30%

Serious shortage400/668 cities

: Gap=40bm3, in Normal Year

Huge losses due to flooding and drought /

>GDP1

Spatial distribution

Temporal distribution


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Water Issues in China /

Flooding / Decreasing /

Polluting / Losing /


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1.9 3.79.1 7.6

-0.8

-3.2

-33

-55.5

-4.8

-61.2

-40.1

-62.2

-30.9

-2.5 -2.2

-0.9-0.9

-77.9-76.6-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

(

%)

Changes in Recorded Runoff /

Significant decreasing : Haihe River, Yellow River

Slight changing: other rivers

Decreasing rate of runoff during 1980-2004 comparing to that

before 1980


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Global Warming

Hydrological cycle

Sustainable utilization

Changes in rainfall

Climate change and Hydrological cycle


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Contents


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Assessment approach

Horizontally integrated

Vertically

integrated

Assessment / Model

Impacts

Adaptation / Policy

Technology

Projected

Scenario / Projected

Hypothetical


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National Key Project (85-913-03-03 )

Socialeconomicdatabase

Tributaries GCMs

Random weather model

Water balance models

Assessment system of water

Effect assessment

Adaptation measures

Hydro-meteorologicDatabase

Study Catchments/Tributaries of six big rivers

Assessment Models/:

Lumped Water Balance

Models /

Assessment / : The future water

resources, based on outputs of 7

GCMs

Sub-area1

0

10

20

30

40

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968

Time/month

Runoff/mm


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National Key Project (96-908-03-04 )

GCMs or RCM

60km60km

Downscaling of P and T (30km30km)

30km30km grid based hydrological model

Spatial distribution and simulated discharge

Sensitivity analysis

GISdatabase

Hydro-meteorologicdatabase

Study basins /: 4 big river basins Assessment Models /: 3030km grid based hydrologic

model

Assessment /: sensitivity analysis

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-20 -10 0 10 20

DP(%)

DR(%)

-2

-1

0

1

2


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m

m

m

d IPII

PIWWP

IPIWWP

Q0

1

0max

00

0

max

00

11

max

22

max

2221

max

2221

WWWWWWdWd

WWWWdQ

SS

S

b

Study area: China

Assessment ModelVIC Assessmentvulnerability

National Key Project (2001-BA611B-02-04)


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( IPCC AR4, 2007 )

6.4

1.1

Temperature rise: 1.16.4/ 211.16.4Warmer globe /

Temperature trends in 21th Century21
http://news.cctv.com/special/C16312/


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Possible climate change in China21

PrecipitationIncrease in most areas, Decrease in NorthernChina and North-eastern China before 2040 /Temperature /20301.720502.2


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Probability of flood and drought hazards would increase /The pattern of south-flood and north-drought would aggravate.

A2scena

rio

Change in runoff distribution under the scenario A2

2071-2100A2

Projected water resources distribution


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Similar to that under scenario A2, exacerbating the instability of water

system / B2A2

Change in runoff distribution under the scenario B2

2071-2100B2

B2scen

ario

Projected water resources distribution


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Sensitivity /Sensitivity of hydrology to climate change is response degree of

hydrological variable to climate change. High response under the

same climate change means more sensitive to climate change

Cold regionYilihe RiverSemi-arid regionYellow R

Semi-humid region

Huai RHumid regionDongjiang R

Study basin

Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change

Sensiti it of WR to Climate Change


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T RISE: increases Spring discharge, decreases runoff in other seasons

Surface runoff: more sensitive to climate change

Human activities: could decrease sensitivity of runoff

Yilihe RiverYellow River


S iti it f WR t Cli t Ch


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-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

(%)

(%)

-3 -2 -1

0 +1 +2

+3

Precipitation change: result in larger runoff change than T does

Same change range: P+ result in larger runoff change than P-

Arid region: more sensitive; while humid region less

Huaihe River

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

(%)

(%)

-3 -2 -1

0 +1 +2

+3

Dongjiang River



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Sensitivity comparison of Hydro-variables

Response Lawsimilar between actual evaporation and soil moisture

P changesRunoff, actual evaporation, soil moisture, (bigger->less)

T changesSoil moisture, runoff, actual evaporation, (bigger->less)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

(%)

(mm)

-3 -2 -1

0 +1 +2

+3

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

(%)

(mm)

-3 -2 -1

0 +1 +2

+3

-40

-20

0

20

40

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

(%)

(mm)

-3 -2 -1

0 +1 +2

+3

RUNOFF

SOILMOISTURE

ACTUALEVAPORATION


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Human activities are main reasons of runoff reduction in YR

Contribution of Climate change accounts for 39

39

Identification of CC contribution (YRB)

PeriodsReco-ed

(108m3)

Simu-ed

(108m3)

Total redu

(108m3)

Climate-induced Human-induced

108m3 (%) 108m3 (%)

Baseline 237.5

1970-1979148.5 198.5 89.0 39.0 43.82 50.0 56.18

1980-1989 172.7 217.6 64.8 19.9 30.67 44.9 69.33

1990-2000 95.3 181.1 142.2 56.4 39.64 85.8 60.36

1970-2000 138.8 199.5 98.7 38.0 38.53 60.6 61.47


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Contents


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Climate Change, IWRM and Resilience

Many climate change impacts

are just extreme examples ofexisting challenges. /

Water resources are already stressed due to

economic growth, population pressure and lifestyles.

Many challenges not new, nor product of climatechange alone. /


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Flooding Flood management

W Pollution Green economic

W LosingSelf restoration+ engineering

Water savingW Shortage

Integrated WR Management /


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1. Water-Saving Society /

ChinaDeveloped

Countries

Consumed Water/ 10000GDP(RMB) 537 m3

0.70.80.40.5

Index of water usage

4WorldMean value

The effective-utilization coefficient of

agricultural irrigation water


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2. Non-Traditional water sources /

High cost /.

Technology Support /

Waste water treatment

Storm water harvest

Sea water desalination
http://www.chinacitywater.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=8098http://www.chinacitywater.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=8098


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Reservoirs / River dikes /

Flood retention areas /

Water transfer projects /

3. Water Controlling Projects /

JingJiang dyke

Embankment

Three Gorge Reservoir Reservoirs: 87,000

87,000

Total storage capacity: 600 billion m3

6000 m3


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Haihe river

Huaihe riverYellow river

Yangtze river

WL

ML

EL

Water transfer project /


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4. Water Resources Management /

Toward WDM rather than

WSM /

Perfect policy, laws, and

regulations /

Public education /

Priorities of Adaptation
http://book.coatren.cn/103/95493.shtml


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Priorities of AdaptationImprovements /

New scenario /

Assessment model, especially for ungauged areas /

Limitation of adaptation /

More strategies at state level /Lack of regional adaptation strategies / More strategy on mean, less on extreme /


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Different issues for different regions /

Different adaptation strategies for different regions /

1. Regional adaptation strategies /

Principle /

Key Regions


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2. Strategies for extreme events/

Flood

Drought


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For more

information


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Thanks for your attention

climate change & water resources: impact and adaptation

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