Climate Change Impact Adaptation and Policy in China

Lin Erda, Ma Shiming

Agroenvironment & Sustainable Development Institute,

Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Global mean annual temperaturechange relative to preindustrial

20001950 2050 21000

1

2

3

4

5

6

Tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y (

o C)

1900

Extreme andirreversible effects

Aggregate impacts

Distribution ofimpacts

Unique and threatened systems

Risks of large scalediscontinuitiesSome increase in extreme climate events

Small positive or negative net monetaryimpacts (most people adversely affected)

Net negative for some regions

Risks to some systems

Net negative monetary impacts

Net negative for many regions

Risks to many systems

Some increase in extreme climate events

Small positive or negative net monetary impacts (most people adversely affected)

Net negative for some regions

Risks to some systems

OB

SE

RV

ED

OB

SE

RV

ED Extreme and

irreversible effects

Aggregate impacts

Distribution ofimpactsUnique and threatened systems

IMPACTS FOR HIGH WARMING SCENARIO

IMPACTS FOR LOW WARMING SCENARIO

IPCC High

IPCC Low

China’s Temperature Change

Frequent occurrence of abnormal weather conditions

Occurring frequencies of droughts, floods and typhoon in some regions of China are correlated with the occurrence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The summer rain belt has moved further to the south. The precipitation has reduced in northern China

The winter becomes warmer and the summer becomes cooler;

The typhoons reached to China are not so frequently as before.

Observed impacts of changes in regional climate warming

are related to increasing yield trends in Northeast China,

lengthening growing seasons in northern China, improved cotton quality in Xingjiang, and

expansion and advanced phonologies

of agricultural pests. rice, wheat, and corn production would meet adverse

impacts due to shorter growth period caused by continuous warming climate, but cotton different.

China’s Rice Production and Yield

Yie

ld (

t/h

a)

China rice production

China wheat production

China maize production

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Wheat

Irrigated Wheat

Spring W

heat

Irri S W

heat

Sin

gle Rice

Early R

ice

Late R

ice

Sp

ring C

orn

Irri. S C

orn

Su

mm

er Corn

Irri S C

ornThe Possible Impacts on Main Crops in China 2030

Increase

decrease

Concerning Issues

During the 1990s, the rice production and productivity in Asia has grown at a much slower rate than population

The current yield gap ranges from 10 to 60% between attainable and economically exploitable yields depending on the ecosystems and countries

The decline in cereal yield is due to shortening of growth period, decrease in photosynthesis ability, and increase in respiration demanding more water availability

Asian rice and other crops monoculture may be reaching productivity limits due to adverse impacts on soils

Legislation, policy and sustainable development

China has adopted 26 sets of laws and regulations in the agricultural sector.

Those laws and regulations have played an important role in promoting sustainable development in agriculture.

They also play an important role in adaptation of climate change

The Agricultural Law

The Agricultural Law, adopted in July 1993, is very conducive to a sustained and coordinated development in agriculture. Since 1993, an annual conference on rural development is convened each year by the central government, at which policies and measures aimed at protecting and encouraging farmer’s initiatives and increasing agricultural production are adopted.

1. Maintain the system of household contract responsibility with remuneration

linked to output

The extension of the contract period to up to 30 years has been embraced enthusiastically by the farmers at large, who are now motivated to increase agricultural production. So farmers have became a main bodies to adapt agriculture to CC

Adaptation policies for agriculture

2. Promoting the development of the agricultural production

3. Farmland water conservancy and shelter forest

4. Mechanization and Modernization of Agricultural Production

5. Agricultural insurance undertakings

6. Increasing allocations for agriculture

7. Enhancing science, technology and education

8. Resources use and the protection of rural environment

9. Prohibiting deforestation and the practice of slash-and-burn

The Forestry Law of China

Administrative rules and regulations such as Rules Governing the Implementation of the Forestry Law, Regulations on the Prevention of Forest Fires and Forest Pest Control Regulations were adopted 15 years ago. Up till now, China has issued four sets of forestry laws and legal instruments, 4 forestry administrative regulations, about 60 forestry sector rules and more than 200 local forestry regulations and local government rules. These laws, rules and regulations have played an important role in promoting sustainable forestry development and adaptation to CC.

China’s policies, laws and regulations on water conservation:

1. Water conservation

2. Flood control

3. Soil conservation

4. Water pollution control act

A UK-China Cooperation Project

To provide climate change scenarios for China, based on selected IPCC SRES emission scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.

To provide socioeconomic scenarios for China relevant to agriculture, for the 2020s and 2050s.

To provide an overview of the overall effects of climate change on agriculture in China, including economic costs of damages and /or adaptation.

Boundary Map of China

Grid partition of China

Land use map

FAO Soil data

Crop Variety and Planting details

Yield change map

Seven different climate scenarios (baseline, 2025, 2050 and 2080 under two emission scenarios (A2 and B2 SRES)

The resolution of climate scenarios for China is 50×50km with 19 levels in the atmosphere

Simulation period: 1961-1990, 2071-2100. For the period of 2011-2040, 2041-2071, can be get from pattern scaling

Climate Change Scenarios for China

Modeling results——Land use Change Scenario(2010)

Tilled land, grain output and demand during

2000-2080 （ High） •Yea

r•populati

on•（ x108

）

•land （ x104）

•Output （x108）

•Demand（ x108）

•Import/Demand（ %）

•Per capita

demand（ kilogram/perso

n）•200

0•12.65 •9546.65 •5.084 •4.8 •380

•2010

•14.03 •9250 •5.34 •5.40 •1.11 •385

•2020

•14.95 •9070 •5.50 •5.83 •5.66 •390

•2030

•15.48 •8890 •5.67 •6.20 •8.55 •400

•2040

•15.70 •8720 •5.84 •6.52 •9.82 •415

•2050

•15.69 •8550 •6.02 •6.66 •9.61 •425

•2060

•15.54 •8465 •6.18 •6.60 •6.40 •425

•2070

•15.25 •8380 •6.20 •6.48 •4.32 •425

•2080

•14.88 •8296 •6.20 •6.32 •1.90 •425

GIS technology

Climate change scenarios

Boundary Map of China

Grid partition of China

Land use map

FAO soil data

Crop Variety Distribution

Sowing date, Planting type

Running regional crop model

Yield Change of every cell

validating

The scale of China boundary map is 1:1,000,000

The resolution of the cells is 50*50KM, which is corresponding to the climate change scenarios.

Current and future land use map, the future land use map were predicted through the GDP and population

Get the soil attributes of physical and chemical characters, using the central soil model, adjusting the soil organic carbon under different climate scenarios.Crop variety and planting details will distributed to every cell. Form the data base for running crop model.

Flowchart

Yield Change Map all over China

Highlights of the projects so far

The more exact mapping results show the larger difference of crop yield distribution with the previous results; even involving adaptation climate change still will result in a reduction of between 5 and 10% in production of main crops in China in the next 30 years

.A further adverse impacts will happen, large adaptation costs will need, but will not seriously influence food security

Possible Adaptation for Agriculture

•Adjust cropping calendar and crop rotation

•develop and promote use of high-yielding varieties

•Promote irrigation and water-saving technologies

•shift from conventional crops to intensive greenhouse agriculture;

•Adopt heat-resistant crops, water-efficient cultivars with resistance to pests and diseases

Distribution Changes of Pinus tabulaeformis Carr油松

Distribution Changes of Pinus tabulaeformis Carr油松

Possible Adaptation for Forestry

•Improving the management of the ecological system of natural forests

•Selecting improved varieties of trees

•Integrated management of forest diseases , pets and weeds

•Improving the control of forest fires

Possible Adaptation for Water

•Improving the protection and maintenance of facilities •Intensify scientific research on water resources •Strengthening flood-control ability of dams and river dykes •Establishing modern forecasting, assessment systems •Protecting water environment and preventing pollution •Tree-planting and afforestation to prevent soil erosion •Establishing interregional water diversion

Significant actions taken by

the strengthening of research on (1) the science of the climate system and climatic change, (2) greenhouse gas emissions and the national inventory, (3) impacts on social and economic development, and (4) response strategies. China has also established a high-level cross-ministerial body, the National Coordinating Committee on Climate Change Policy, to address policy issues.

Has already made contributions

to alleviating the longer-term trends of climate change by such national measures and "win-win" strategies as population control, energy conservation, renewable energy development, and large-scale afforestation

A targeted research will need

A Capacity built and results obtained in V & A area will serve as a basis for sectoral vulnerability and adaptation analyses and input for climate change related policy, some of which may be included in the "general description of steps to implement the Convention" required in National Communications