climate change - meteorologists in action c y lam hong kong observatory
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change- Meteorologists in Action
C Y Lam
Hong Kong Observatory
Paris, 2 February 2007
• IPCC – The evidence for human-caused global warming is now “unequivocal”.
• Now accepted by most, taken for granted
• But, it has taken three decades to reach this position.
(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
The 30-year Journey
330 ppm
380 ppm
WMO & Meteorologists
• Rational approach: data & research
• Engagement: partners & stakeholders, impacts & responses
• Community level: attitude change, teach & preach
1st WMO statement, 1976
• Carbon dioxide – 330 ppm
• Accumulation of carbon dioxide – potential impact on climate vs natural variability
• Food as key issue, other disruptions too
1st World Climate Conference, 1979(WMO, UNEP, FAO UNESCO, WHO)
• “a gradual warming of the lower atmosphere appears plausible”
• “some effects …. detectable before the end of this century”
• Declaration: urgent actions to improve knowledge and to foresee & prevent potential man-made changes
WMO World Climate Programme, 1979
• Data
• Applications
• Research
• Impacts on human activities
Multiple international partners
Data• WMO Global Observing System – based on national
meteorological services
• WMO Global Atmospheric Watch – specialized network to measure atmospheric composition
• Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), 1992 – WMO, IOC-UNESCO,UNEP, ICSU
• 380 ppm, 0.74°C/100 years (IPCC, 2007)
Research
• World Climate Research Programme, 1985
• WMO, ICSU, IOC-UNESCO
• Large scale projects, all climate components
• Underpins UNFCCC & IPCC assessments
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change WMO & UNEP,1988
• Assessment reports based on published literature, covering:– state of climate– potential impact– policy options in response
• 1st report, 1990; 4th report 2007
2nd World Climate Conference, 1990(WMO, UNEP, UNESCO, IOC, FAO, ICSU)
• Carbon dioxide 350 ppm
• After 1st IPCC Assessment Report
• Ministerial Declaration:– noted unprecedented rate of climate change
predicted by IPCC – association with greenhouse gases– call for negotiations →UNFCCC 1992– well-informed public
(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
The Long Journey
+20ppm
30 years after 1st WMO Statement
• IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
– “warming of the climate system is unequivocal”
– “very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”
(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
The Long Journey
“unequivocal”after
+50 ppm
↑30-year
wait↓
Current general acceptance of human-induced climate change
• It came about not by accident
• But by meteorologists
– sounding the alarm 30 years ago
– organizing observations & research
– engaging partners & stakeholders
Reaching Out- Teach and Preach
• A well-informed public – the responsibility of meteorological services working at the “local” level
• Must be based on– Observations– Understanding of the phenomenon– Projections into the future
Hong Kong Observatory
• Records since 1884
• Announced observed trends
• Also urbanization effects
• Projections for 21st century
Relating to people
People don’t appreciate :
“3.5°C rise in temperature in 21st century”
“Temperature varies more than this in a day.
What is the problem?”
“No winter by the end of the century”
“Less than one cold day per winter.”
“cold winter no more”
Hong Kong, August 2004
Reaching out to people
press conference radio &TV
openday
The public & green groups
partnering withgreen groups
lectures for students
public lectures
Road blocks
• Low public interest relative to economic and social issues
• Lack of sense of being “immediate” and “close”
• “Small city” psychology, but actually 0.1% of world population
More teaching and preaching
• Information on trend, potential impacts, basic causes and what people can do
• A matter of attitude and life style
• Education package & school activities
• More partners
Meteorologists – not purely scientists
• We sounded the alarm; now we should enable people to respond.
• Reach out, with clear message for people.
• Climate change is multi-disciplinary by nature; engage full spectrum of partners.
(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
Another 30 years for action?
“unequivocal”after
+50 ppm
↑30-year
wait↓
WMO & meteorologistswill act together with all
to stop the worlddrifting irreversibly into a state
unsuitable for human habitation.We cannot wait for
another 30 years.