Climate Change in the Kawarthas

Part Two

SUMMER

Average summer temperatures are expected to rise from 4 to 8 C

More extreme weather is predicted – summer heat, windstorms, drought and severe rainstorms

Butterfly watching at its best

Giant Swallowtail – a brand new species for the Kawarthas! A warming climate may allow Giant Swallowtails and other southern species to become permanent residents in the Kawarthas. Butterfly diversity may therefore increase.

Climate change will impact our lake ecosystems •Earlier ice-out and warmer temperatures will mean an increase in the frequency of potentially harmful algae blooms (e.g., blue-green algae)• an increase in the number of invasive species (e.g., zebra mussel)• an increase in the abundance of aquatic vegetation, both native and alien invasive species (e.g., Eurasian milfoil) with warmer, clearer water • swimming and boating will be affected negatively• 2012 was one of the worst summers on record for aquatic plant-related problems for boaters (marina owner, Buckhorn Lake)

Eurasian-Milfoil

Zebra Mussels

Blue-green algae

Invasive species should thrive in a changing climate, thanks to their adaptability

Purple Loosestrife Common Reed (Phragmites)

Dog-strangling Vine Garlic Mustard

A decline in forest health and composition

• Forests will be negatively impacted by increased temperature, more frequent drought, competition with invasive plant species (e.g., European Buckthorn), greater risks from insect pests (e.g., Emerald Ash Borer, Gypsy Moth) and fungal infections (Butternut canker)

• By mid-century, we won’t have the temperature and precipitation regime for the kind of forest and vegetation we have now. “Our climate” will have moved into northern Ontario.

• A number of tree species are expected to disappear from our forests.

Late summer: a bad time for hayfever sufferers Hayfever sufferers can blame ragweed, a plant that’s thriving

with higher CO2 levels in the atmosphere (as is Poison Ivy)

FALL

• warmer falls are to be expected • first frost will occur at increasingly later dates• fall-like conditions are already lingering into early winter • like early spring, late fall is often when temperatures climb highest above normal

En route to Latin AmericaClimate change is happening there, too, and affecting “our birds” wintering grounds

as a result of drought, loss of cloud forest habitat, etc.

Costa Rica Yucatan, Mexico Panama

Brazil

Argentina

Colombia

Monarchs heading to Mexico

A precarious future

• Climate change is threatening Monarchs on their migration route (drought, heat) and Mexican wintering grounds (winter storms causing hypothermia; warming climate in the mountains threatening future of Oyamel fir trees) • Climate change may also be the reason why many Monarchs returned to Ontario too early last spring – before milkweeds had emerged.

Photo from Mexican wintering grounds

Tagging at Presqu’ile P.P.

Trout are spawning

Coldwater species like Brook and Lake trout may decline substantially with increased air and water temperatures

Warming water, for example, may disrupt Lake Trout reproduction as eggs hatch too early

A decline in Gray Jays-Gray Jays are disappearing from the Kawarthas (e.g., Petroglyphs Provincial Park, Kawartha Nordic Ski Club)- these birds are “hoarders” in that they cache food in summer and fall to be eaten during the winter - warmer autumn temperatures may be leading to spoilage of these perishable food items - Gray Jays are late winter nesters- Breeding success partly depends on the availability of these cached food items. So, with less food available at time of nesting, fewer young are being raised (Algonquin Park study)

A number of bird species are delaying their autumn departure

Common Merganser

Red-winged Blackbird

Common Loon

Trumpeter Swan

Three numbers to remember

2° The degrees Celcius of warming of the atmosphere that is considered “safe” (0.6 °C of warming so far)

565 The gigatons (billions of tons) of carbon dioxide that can be emitted without going over 2°C of warming

2,795 The gigatons of carbon dioxide that would be emitted if corporations sell the fossil fuels they presently have in their reserves – five time the safe amount!

Bill McKibben, 350.org

What now? • Simultaneously pursue policies of adaptation (e.g., improving infrastructure) and reducing carbon emissions• Not too late to avoid the worst case scenarios by drastically reducing carbon emissions (eventually 80 – 90%)•Biggest impediment may be a lack of a sense of urgency on the part of the public… confusing “weather” with climate •Climate change denial industry has successfully created doubt about the reality of climate change • Sadly, it may require more severe weather events like the floods of Toronto, Calgary and Peterborough to sway public opinion and therefore allow for political action. • Easiest way to solve C02 problem: Simply tax carbon emissions in proportion to the amount of carbon they release. Coal, oil and natural gas would be more expensive. Income taxes could then be reduced to balance out a new carbon tax. It is the solution economists prefer, because there are no complicated regulations such as gas mileage requirements for cars.

A carbon tax?