Climate Change in the Kawarthas

March 2014 Part 2

Thriving Poison Ivy

higher CO2 levels in the atmosphere may explain increase in size and abundance

Bridgenorth Trail Poison Ivy

A huge decline in Monarchs (especially in 2013)

Elimination of milkweed is main cause (Round-up ready GMO corn and soybean in mid-western U.S.)

However, climate change is also a cause- during migration (drought, heat)- on the breeding grounds (arriving before milkweed is up) - Mexican wintering grounds (winter storms causing hypothermia; warming is threatening future of Oyamel fir trees)

Photo from Mexican wintering grounds

Tagging at Presqu’ile P.P.

A decline in aerial foragers - birds that feed on the wing

Linked to decreased insect prey abundance; may be a connection to temperature changes

Barn Swallow Chimney Swift Purple Martin

Vesper Sparrow

Bank Swallow holes

Common Nighthawk

Whip-poor-will

A decline in Gray JaysUsed to be regularly seen in Petroglyphs, Apsley area

Gray Jays are “hoarders” in that they cache food in summer for fall & winter consumption

Warmer fall temperatures may be leading to spoilage of food

Late winter nesting success partly depends on the availability of these cached food items

Conclusion: less nesting success?

Algonquin Park study

Later freeze-up means later fall departure of waterbirds

Common Merganser Canada Geese

Common Loon

Trumpeter Swan

Extreme Events March 2012

• 8 days of 20 C temperatures mid-March (Mar. 22 – 26C)

• Frogs calling four weeks early

• Mourning Doves beginning to nest

• Trees came into flower

• Many flowers were killed by April frosts, resulting in an 80% loss in Ontario’s apple production. • Ice-out on March 20, a full month earlier than the long-term average

Extreme events –Red Admiral invasion of April 2012

Unprecedented numbers (300 million plus) of Red Admirals, a migratory species Linked to drought conditions in Texas (climate change?) where they winterAll predatory insects were killed off With rains, abundant wildflowers and huge reproduction success Wave after wave came north out of Texas from April through May Arrived too early to reproduce here since nettles, their host plant, had not yet emerged-Monarchs arrived early, too, in some areas before milkweed were up. Poor reproductive success.

Red Admirals feeding on tree sap

Extreme Events – abundant aquatic plants in summer 2012

2012 was maybe worst summer on record for aquatic plant-related problems for boaters (marina owner, Buckhorn Lake)

Linked to above hot summer and early ice-out (March 20) which meant a longer growing season

Eurasian Milfoil

Extreme Events Winter 2014

• Peterborough temperatures cooler than average since November

• Feb. 4 C cooler, Mar. 6 C cooler

• Great Lakes frozen over 90%

• Displaced ducks turned up on the Otonabee River

• Unprecedented invasion of Snowy Owls due to population explosion on Arctic breeding ground (abundant lemmings; CC connection may explain lemming abundance )

• Polar Vortex and cold weather may be related to warming of the Arctic causing changes in the Jet Stream

Red-breasted Merganser on Otonabee

Chemong Rd. Snowy Owl

Concern for the future: Decline of cold-water fish

Coldwater species like Brook Trout, Lake Trout and Walleye will decline substantially with increased air and water temperatures.

Brook Trout range is on track to decrease by 50% by 2050 (MNR) In Pennsylvania, now at 10% of historic range because of warming.

Warming water, for example, may disrupt Lake Trout reproduction as eggs hatch too early.

Warm water species, such as bass and sunfish, should do well.

Concern for the future Tropical migrants may arrive too late Their arrival may no longer coincide with peak insect numbers, leading to less reproductive success. Some species

may extend their range northward and therefore no longer nest in the Kawarthas.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Ruby –throated Hummingbird

Baltimore Oriole

Barn Swallow

Bobolink

Concern for the future Less winter mortality of insects; new species

House Mosquito (Culex pipiens)

Black-legged Tick

Milder temperatures are allowing more insects to successfully overwinter.

• Lyme disease is present along Lake Erie and Lake Ontario as Black-legged Ticks are now able to overwinter in Ontario. Will have spread over all of Southern Ontario by 2020. May already be in the Kawarthas.

• Insects in general – including pests - should thrive in a warming climate and have more lifecycles.

Concern for the future a decline in forest health and composition

• Increased temperature, more frequent drought, competition with invasive plant species (e.g., European Buckthorn), greater risks from insect pests (e.g., Emerald Ash Borer, Gypsy Moth) and fungal infections (Butternut canker)

• By mid-century, we won’t have the temperature and precipitation regime for the kind of forest and vegetation we have now. “Our climate” will have moved into northern Ontario.

• A number of tree species are expected to disappear from our forests.

Concern for the future emotional distress

• A change in how it “feels” to live in the Kawarthas - new species, new climate

• The disappearance of some seasonal rituals we’ve had for so long (e.g., a backyard rink, cross-country skiing)

• A decline in the quality of our experience of the natural world (e.g., decrease in biodiversity)

• A sense of loss when valued natural environments are disrupted or degraded (e.g., loss of trees in wind storms, loss of species like nighthawks)

• Less of a sense of “what to expect” and what is normal. New Rule: expect the unexpected

Huge obstacles to change

• Right-wing and ideologues media (e.g., Sun News), corporations and religious fundamentalists have created a very successful “denial industry” • Their argumentation means climate scientists are either corrupt (i.e., only working for research grants), incompetent or that the “jury is still out.” You would have to believe that all science – from health care to computers - is suspect. • We have a federal government that is hostile to environmental science… cut backs, muzzling • Gratification is in the distant future … Are we able to act for future generations? • The public lacks a sense of urgency and confuses “weather” with climate. • We are disconnected from nature. All seems fine.• We have a poor understanding of how science works and are quick to reject “inconvenient truths.” • The human brain does not react well to a slow motion phenomenon like climate change • We are not reminded of it enough … not even on CBC weather reports! • Individual action seems meaningless. • A meaningful solution means a massive move away from fossil fuels and possibly an end to economic growth. • It is much easier to live in denial. Humans are good at this!

Clair Martin – CBC

Best case scenario: Price of oil at $100 + may itself put an end to growth Jeff Rubin “End of Growth”

How to support a better understanding of a changing climate

Take part in Citizen Science monitoring programs such as FrogWatch, PlantWatch, Reptile & Amphibian Atlas

• Report bird sightings to eBird.org worldwide bird data base

• Learn what to expect, given the time of year – subscribe to “Step Outside” nature guides at resources4rethinking.ca

• Report unusual species or events to me: dmonkman1@cogeco.ca

• Make climate change a regular topic of conversation with friends and relatives

• Challenge deniers or those who don’t consider it an important threat

• Demand action by politicians

In conclusion

Earlier calling Earlier floweringNew mammals

Invasives

Uncertain future for some species

New pests

New birds New butterflies

Declines

Concern for the health of our forests

Extreme events