climate change effects -- grand junction

Download Climate Change Effects -- Grand Junction

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From our climate panel in Grand Junction on August 4: Our Forest, Our Water, Our Land: Local Impacts on Climate Change. Sponsored by Conservation Colorado, Mesa County Library, Math & Science Center

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  • 1. Global Climate Facts The Greenhouse Effect (interaction of sunshine, atmosphere and surface) isresponsible for a habitable climate on Earth Average temperature of deep space (distant from any sun) is:-520 F Average temperature on earth is:+57 F Max Temp. range of objects in near-earth orbit (above theatmosphere) is:+500 F to -150 F (in direct sun or in earths shadow) 650 F range Record seasonal range of earths surface (summer to winter inSiberia) is:+98 F to -90 F 188 F range Record daily range of earths surface (Montana) is:+44 F to -56 F 100 F range

2. Comparison of Temperature Ranges1 week in April in Montrose, CO45 F actual temprange (1 week) 3. Global Climate Facts The Greenhouse EffectFrom: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulderhttp://www.ucar.edu/learn/1_3_1.htm30% of suns energyIs reflected back into space.19% is absorbed by theatmosphere51% is absorbed by theearth. 4. Global Climate Facts The Greenhouse Effect Man made emissions of total CO2 into the atmosphere areincreasingEstimated Total Carbon Dioxideemitted by human activity 5. Global Climate Facts The Greenhouse Effect Water vapor dwarfs all other greenhouse gases As much as 95% of the greenhouse effect on earth is due to water vapor andclouds. As little as 3.6% of greenhouse effect is due to CO2From: http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html 6. Global Climate Facts The Greenhouse Effect Man-made gases account for as little as 1/3 % of the greenhouse effect.From: http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html 7. Global Climate FactsFrom: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunlight 8. Global Climate Factshttp://homepages.ius.edu/kforinas/ClassRefs/Climate/greenhouseeffect.htm 9. Surface Temperature RecordsTrend for about the last 150 years shows an overall warming trendFrom: http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/climate_change/change.htm 10. Surface Temperature RecordsTrend for about the last 150 years shows an overall warming trendFrom: http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/climate_change/change.htm 11. Surface Temperature Records Compared at the same scalesProxy data about the last 450,000 years shows warm and cold trends about evenly spacedFrom: http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/climate_change/change.htm 12. 400350300250200150Surface Temperature Records Compared to CO2 and Airborne Dust ConcentrationData over the last 450,000 years shows temperature positively correlated to C02(CO2 increases lag temperature increases by about 300-400 years, not so with dust)-350-360-370-380-390-400-410-420-430-440-450+10 F+5 F0-5 F-10 F-15 F1800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0101001000CO2Temp.Dust 13. Surface Temperature Records Compared to atmospheric dust-concentrationsDetailed study of the last 23,000 years shows temperature tracking dust concentration(1-5 micron size range)CoolingOlderFrom: Albani, S. Interpreting last glacial to Holocene dust changes at Talos Dome (East Antarctica): implications foratmospheric variations from regional to hemispheric scales (2012) 14. Atmospheric Chemistry andBiology Through TimeOrigin ofPhotosyntheticCellular ActivityFirst MetabolicCells(Prokaryotes)MulticellularOganismsFirst LandPlants 15. Fluctuations of pCO2 for the last 500 My, normalized by the estimate of pCO2 obtained fromthe most recent value of .Rothman D H PNAS 2002;99:4167-41712002 by National Academy of SciencesGrassesevolvePresentday 16. +20+15+10+50-5 17. Productivity vs. Preservation-Potentialhigher 18. Native Environments Over Time 19. Native Environments Over Time 20. Native Environments Over Time 21. Native Environments Over Time 22. Native Environments Over Time 23. Native Environments Over Time 24. Native Environments Over Time 25. Native Environments Over Time 26. Native Environments Over Time 27. Native Environments Over Time 28. Native Environments Over Time 29. Native Environments Over Time 30. Native Environments Over Time 31. Native Environments Over Time 32. Native Environments Over Time 33. Native Environments Over Time 34. Native Environments Over Time 35. Native Environments Over Time 36. Native Environments Over Time 37. Native Environments Over Time 38. Native Environments Over Time 39. Native Environments Over Time 40. U. S. Climate Reference Network114 state-of-the-art ultra-reliable triple redundantweather stations placed on pristine environmentsNow operational for almost 10 years 41. U. S. Climate Reference Network114 state-of-the-art ultra-reliable triple redundantweather stations placed on pristine environmentshttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/national-temperature-index/time-series 42. Average TemperatureContiguous U.S. over 100 years5151.55252.55353.5546/1/191112/1/19136/1/191612/1/19186/1/192112/1/19236/1/192612/1/19286/1/193112/1/19336/1/193612/1/19386/1/194112/1/19436/1/194612/1/19486/1/195112/1/19536/1/195612/1/19586/1/196112/1/19636/1/196612/1/19686/1/197112/1/19736/1/197612/1/19786/1/198112/1/19836/1/198612/1/19886/1/199112/1/19936/1/199612/1/19986/1/200112/1/20036/1/200612/1/20086/1/2011http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/usAverage temperature (degrees F) 43. IPCC Climate AssessmentsFrom: IPCC Fifth Climate Assessment Report, 2013 44. IPCC Climate AssessmentsU.S Data 1911-2011From: IPCC Fifth Climate Assessment Report, 2013 45. Multi-decadal Oscillation 46. Multi-decadal OscillationU.S Data 1911-2011 47. The radiative forcing due to clouds and water vapor (2006)V. Ramanathan and Anand InamdarCenter for Atmospheric Sciences, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California,San Diego, CACloud feedback. This is still an unresolved issue. The few results we have on the roleof cloud feedback in climate change is mostly from GCMs.Their treatment of clouds is so rudimentary that we need an observational basis tocheck the model conclusions. We do not know how the net forcing of 18 W m2**will change in response to global warming.Thus, the magnitude as well as the sign of the cloud feedback is uncertain..** This study indicates water vapor has a positive forcing of +30 W/m2 (absorption=warming)and a negative forcing of -48 W/m2 (reflection/scattering =net cooling effect)IPCC reports a CO2 forcing value of 1.66 W/m2 (absorption=warming only).This study suggests that C02 is only 5.5 % as effective as water vapor in absorbing heat intothe atmosphere. 48. Attribution of the presentday total greenhouse effect (2010)Gavin A. Schmidt et al.NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA.With a straightforward scheme for allocating overlaps, we find that watervapor is the dominant contributor (50% of the effect), followed by clouds (25%)and then CO2 with 20%. All other absorbers play only minor roles.In a doubled CO2 scenario, this allocation is essentially unchanged, even though themagnitude of the total greenhouse effect is significantly larger than the initial radiativeforcing, underscoring the importance of feedbacks from water vapor and clouds toclimate sensitivity.. 49. From IPCC AR5 Physical Science Basis Report (2013)Water Vapor and Clouds:Many of the cloudiness and humidity changes simulated by climate models in warmerclimates are now understood as responses to large-scale circulation changes. However, some aspects of the overall cloud response vary substantially amongmodels, and these appear to depend strongly on sub-grid scale processes in whichthere is less confidence.Cloud-Aerosol Interactions:The quantification of cloud and convective effects in models, and of aerosolcloudinteractions, continues to be a challenge. Climate models are incorporating more of therelevant processes than at the time of AR4 (2009), but confidence in the representationof these processes remains weak.Cloud and aerosol properties vary at scales significantly smaller than those resolved inclimate models, .Until sub-grid scale parameterizations of clouds and aerosolcloudinteractions are able to address these issues, model estimates of aerosolcloudinteractions and their radiative effects will carry large uncertainties. 50. Scientists questioning the accuracy of IPCC climate projectionsScientists in this section have made comments that it is not possible to project global climateaccurately enough to justify the ranges projected for temperature and sea-level rise over the nextcentury. They may not conclude specifically that the current IPCC projections are either too high ortoo low, but that the projections are likely to be inaccurate due to inadequacies of current globalclimate modeling.Freeman Dyson, professor emeritus of the School of Natural Sciences, Institute for Advanced Study;Fellow of the Royal Society [16]Richard Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan emeritus professor of atmospheric science at the MassachusettsInstitute of Technology and member of the National Academy of Sciences[17][18][19]Nils-Axel Mrner, retired head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics department at StockholmUniversity, former chairman of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution(19992003)[20]Garth Paltridge, retired chief research scientist, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research and retireddirector of the Institute of the Antarctic Cooperative Research Centre, visiting fellow AustralianNational University[21]Peter Stilbs, professor of physical chemistry at Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm[22]Philip Stott, professor emeritus of biogeography at the University of London[23]Hendrik Tennekes, retired director of research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute [24]Fritz Vahrenholt, German politician and energy executive with a doctorate in chemistry[25] 51. Scientists arguing that global warming is primarily caused by natural processesScientists in this section have made comments that the observed warming is more likely attributable to natural causes than to humanactivities. Their views on

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