Climate Change:Climate Change: Causes and Causes and Implications for PakistanImplications for Pakistan

Climate Change: Some DefinitionsClimate Change: Some Definitions Weather: Weather: The state of the atmosphere at a The state of the atmosphere at a

given time and place, with respect given time and place, with respect to the variables such as temperature, to the variables such as temperature, moisture, pressure etc.moisture, pressure etc.

Climate: Climate: Average weather. StatisticalAverage weather. Statisticaldescription of mean weather description of mean weather

conditions conditions over a period of several years, over a period of several years, typically typically

2-3 decades.2-3 decades.

Climate Change: Climate Change: Climate Change in excess of natural Climate Change in excess of natural variability, attributable to human variability, attributable to human activity.activity.

Climate ChangeClimate Change UNFCCC …..”UNFCCC …..”a change of climate which is a change of climate which is

attributed directly or indirectly to attributed directly or indirectly to human activityhuman activity that alters the composition of the global that alters the composition of the global atmosphere which is in addition to natural atmosphere which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over a comparable climate variability observed over a comparable period of time”period of time”

CLIMATE CHANGE Global Warming

Increased Precipitation & its Uneven Distribution

Melting of Glaciers & Snow

Sea level Rise

Increase in Frequency & Intensity of Extreme Weather Events

IMPACTS

Uncertainty in Water Availability

Decrease in Crop Yields

Newer perspective for sources of energy

Loss of Biodiversity

IncreasedHealth Risks

Natural Climate Variability

Climate ChangeNatural + Anthropogenic

Anthropogenic Influences since the Industrial revolution

Spiraling Population

High pace of Industrialization

Increasing use of Fossil Fuels in

Industry & Transport

Deforestation for Agriculture and

Urbanization

Green House Gases (GHGs)Green House Gases (GHGs)

SIX SIX types of greenhouse gases with different types of greenhouse gases with different Global WarmingGlobal WarmingPotentialPotential (GWP). Usually expressed in (GWP). Usually expressed in CO2-equivalentCO2-equivalent::

Carbon dioxideGWP: 1

Carbon dioxideGWP: 1

HydrofluorocarbonsGWP: 11,700

HydrofluorocarbonsGWP: 11,700

MethaneGWP: 21

MethaneGWP: 21

Sulphur hexafluorideGWP: 23,900

Sulphur hexafluorideGWP: 23,900

Nitrous oxide

GWP: 310

Nitrous oxide

GWP: 310

PerfluorocarbonsGWP: 9,200

PerfluorocarbonsGWP: 9,200

Sector wise Energy Consumption of PakistanSector wise Energy Consumption of Pakistan

Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2008

Change in COChange in CO22 Emissions in Pakistan Emissions in Pakistan (1971-2006)(1971-2006)

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

1

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006

Climate Change/Global WarmingClimate Change/Global WarmingScientific EvidenceScientific Evidence

According to the 3According to the 3rdrd Assessment report of Inter-governmental Panel on Assessment report of Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001):Climate Change (IPCC 2001):

Average global temperature has increased by 0.6 Average global temperature has increased by 0.6 00C during the 20C during the 20thth Century.Century.

Future increases in global temperature are expected in the range of Future increases in global temperature are expected in the range of 1.4 – 5.8 1.4 – 5.8 00C by the end of this century.C by the end of this century.

In South Asia, average annual temperatures could rise between 3.5 In South Asia, average annual temperatures could rise between 3.5 to 5.5 to 5.5 00C by 2100.C by 2100.

Recent findings in the 4Recent findings in the 4thth Assessment Report of IPCC Assessment Report of IPCC (2007) indicate that global temperature rises of 2 – 4.5 (2007) indicate that global temperature rises of 2 – 4.5 00C C are almost inevitable.are almost inevitable.

Glaciers and PakistanGlaciers and Pakistan Glaciers in Pakistan cover 13,680 sq. km which is 13% of mountain Glaciers in Pakistan cover 13,680 sq. km which is 13% of mountain

regions of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). regions of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB).

Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to the flows Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to the flows from UIB.from UIB.

International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI)International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “ (1999): “ (1999): Glaciers Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them disappearing by the if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.year 2035 is very high”.

Hewitt (2005): Hewitt (2005): reported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in reported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the Central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain the Central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain glaciers. glaciers.

Some Projected Changes in River Flows due to Some Projected Changes in River Flows due to Melting of HKH Glaciers Melting of HKH Glaciers

(As reported in recent studies)(As reported in recent studies)

World Bank (2006): World Bank (2006): Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years.fifty years.

IPCC AR4 (2007): IPCC AR4 (2007): Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. glaciers recede.

These conflicting findings make the impact of climate changeThese conflicting findings make the impact of climate change on Karakoram glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain. on Karakoram glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain.

Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on Indus FlowsAssumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):

Temp: +3°C, Glacier Area: - 50%

Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Dis

ch

arg

e (

Cu

me

cs

)

Base Runoff CCS Runoff

Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt

Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced by 15%2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed

Vulnerability of Water ResourcesVulnerability of Water Resources

Increased variability of MonsoonIncreased variability of Monsoon More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers

threatening IRS Flowsthreatening IRS Flows Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due

to rise in snowlineto rise in snowline Shortage of irrigation water for agriculture and Shortage of irrigation water for agriculture and

water supply for industrial and domestic sectors. water supply for industrial and domestic sectors. Increased risks of floods and droughtsIncreased risks of floods and droughts

VulnerabilityVulnerability

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. variability and extremes.

Vulnerability is the function of:Vulnerability is the function of: Character, magnitude, and rate of climate change to Character, magnitude, and rate of climate change to

which it is exposed which it is exposed Sensitivity and adaptive capacity of system itselfSensitivity and adaptive capacity of system itself

The adaptive capacity and vulnerability may vary The adaptive capacity and vulnerability may vary from region to region and even within the regions from region to region and even within the regions

Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Pakistan

Agriculture Systems in Pakistan Agriculture Systems in Pakistan

Total Geographic area: Total Geographic area: 79.61 mha79.61 mha Cultivated areaCultivated area : 223 mha (28%) : 223 mha (28%) Irrigated areaIrrigated area : 19.12 mha (84% of cultivated) : 19.12 mha (84% of cultivated) Rainfed (Barani) cultivated area: 3.67 mha (16% of Rainfed (Barani) cultivated area: 3.67 mha (16% of

cultivated)cultivated)

Irrigated Agriculture: Consumes >80% of fresh water Irrigated Agriculture: Consumes >80% of fresh water resources and contributes >90% to national productionresources and contributes >90% to national production

Pakistan is highly Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate vulnerable to climate

change variabilitychange variability

Geographic Diversity Geographic Diversity and Hazards in Pakistanand Hazards in Pakistan

The country The country has high has high climatic and climatic and geographic diversitygeographic diversity

A large part of our A large part of our economy is in economy is in vulnerable sectorvulnerable sector (i.e., (i.e., agriculture)agriculture)

Majority of the Majority of the rural rural population is poorpopulation is poor ~ ~ increases vulnerabilities increases vulnerabilities

Mountains

•Earthquake•Landslide•Flashfloods•Avalanches•GLOFs•Wild fires•Epidemics•Windstorms

Plains/deserts

•Floods•Drought •Earthquake•Epidemics•Wind storms

Coastal Belt

•Cyclones•Floods•Drought•Epidemics•Storms

Vulnerability of Agriculture to Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate ChangeClimate Change

Irrigated areas: Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier melt in the wake of climate shortage due to glacier melt in the wake of climate changechange

Semi-arid and Arid areas: Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to Vulnerable to changes in quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.changes in quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.

Both of the irrigated and dry areas: Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable to climate extreme events of floods, droughts, vulnerable to climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, dust storms, hail storms, etcheat waves, cold waves, dust storms, hail storms, etc

Impacts on CropsImpacts on Crops

Shortening of growing season lengthShortening of growing season length Loss in yieldLoss in yield Heat stress at sensitive growth stages, e.g. Heat stress at sensitive growth stages, e.g.

flowering, grain initiation stagesflowering, grain initiation stages Increased pest/disease incidenceIncreased pest/disease incidence Increased crop water requirementsIncreased crop water requirements

Enhanced risk of pests and Enhanced risk of pests and diseasesdiseases

Some insect pests and diseases Some insect pests and diseases proliferate under high rainfall conditions proliferate under high rainfall conditions (e.g Bollworm of Cotton, and Wheat Rust (e.g Bollworm of Cotton, and Wheat Rust and Root Rot diseases), while others and Root Rot diseases), while others thrive under warm moist (e.g thrips) and thrive under warm moist (e.g thrips) and dry conditions (e.g. locust)dry conditions (e.g. locust)

LivestockLivestock Plays a significant role in national economy – Potential Foreign Exchange Plays a significant role in national economy – Potential Foreign Exchange

earnerearner Contributes to agricultural GDP equal to crop sub-sectorContributes to agricultural GDP equal to crop sub-sector Source of fuel and fertilizer in the rural areasSource of fuel and fertilizer in the rural areas Not much research conducted in Pakistan on assessment of impacts, and Not much research conducted in Pakistan on assessment of impacts, and

appropriate adaptive measures on animalsappropriate adaptive measures on animals

Likely Impacts on LivestockLikely Impacts on Livestock

Physiological stress on animal due to high temperaturePhysiological stress on animal due to high temperature Productivity losses (milk and meat) due to high temperatureProductivity losses (milk and meat) due to high temperature Stress on conception and reproduction due to high temperatureStress on conception and reproduction due to high temperature Climate-related disease epidemicsClimate-related disease epidemics Reduced productivity of fodder cropsReduced productivity of fodder crops Decreased quality and palatability of foragesDecreased quality and palatability of forages Increased water requirements of animals and fodder cropsIncreased water requirements of animals and fodder crops

Land DegradationLand Degradation Water-logging in coastal areas: Water-logging in coastal areas:

Rising of water table depth to near the soil surface resulting in saturation of Rising of water table depth to near the soil surface resulting in saturation of soil profile hindering respiration of rootssoil profile hindering respiration of roots

Salinity: Salinity: Deposition of excessive soluble salts at the land surface or in the soil profile Deposition of excessive soluble salts at the land surface or in the soil profile due to capillary action inhibiting germination and growthdue to capillary action inhibiting germination and growth

Erosion: Erosion: Detachment of top soil layer due to the action of water or windDetachment of top soil layer due to the action of water or wind

Impacts on LandImpacts on LandLand degradation enhanced due toLand degradation enhanced due to

Wind and water erosion, as a result of low and high rainfallWind and water erosion, as a result of low and high rainfall Water-logging and Salinity, as a result of greater evaporation from land Water-logging and Salinity, as a result of greater evaporation from land

surface.surface.

Land Degradation in PakistanLand Degradation in Pakistan

Water Erosion Water Erosion : 17%: 17% Wind Erosion Wind Erosion : 8%: 8% Salinity and SodicitySalinity and Sodicity : 9%: 9% Waterlogging Waterlogging : 5%: 5% Low organic matter Low organic matter (<1%)(<1%) : 96%: 96%

Impacts on ForestryImpacts on Forestry

Loss of BiodiversityLoss of Biodiversity More frequent forest fires resulting in More frequent forest fires resulting in

deforestation, soil erosion and landslidesdeforestation, soil erosion and landslides Shifting of forest areas northwards (to Shifting of forest areas northwards (to

cooler places)cooler places)

Impact of Climate Extreme Events Impact of Climate Extreme Events

Climate Extreme EventsClimate Extreme Events Flash floods, Droughts, Heavy precipitation Flash floods, Droughts, Heavy precipitation

events, Hailstorms, Dust storms, Cyclones, Heat events, Hailstorms, Dust storms, Cyclones, Heat waveswaves

Cause damage to life and propertyCause damage to life and property Destroy standing cropsDestroy standing crops Destroy stored food grain Destroy stored food grain Spoil quality of food grainsSpoil quality of food grains

FisheriesFisheries

At higher elevations, fisheries are likely to be adversely affected by lower At higher elevations, fisheries are likely to be adversely affected by lower availability of oxygen due to a rise in surface air temperatures. availability of oxygen due to a rise in surface air temperatures.

In the plains, the timing and amount of precipitation could affect the In the plains, the timing and amount of precipitation could affect the migration of fish species from the river to the floodplains for spawning, migration of fish species from the river to the floodplains for spawning, dispersal, and growth (FAO, 2003) dispersal, and growth (FAO, 2003)

Future changes in ocean currents, sea level, sea water temperature, Future changes in ocean currents, sea level, sea water temperature, salinity, wind speed and direction, and predator response to climate salinity, wind speed and direction, and predator response to climate change have the potential to substantially alter fish breeding habitats and change have the potential to substantially alter fish breeding habitats and food supply for fish and ultimately the abundance of fish populations in food supply for fish and ultimately the abundance of fish populations in Asian waters Asian waters

Coastal ZonesCoastal Zones Inundation of coastal areas will pose risk to Mangrove forests, coral Inundation of coastal areas will pose risk to Mangrove forests, coral

reefs breeding ground of fish and infrastructurereefs breeding ground of fish and infrastructure

Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta will pose risk to Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta will pose risk to agriculture, fresh drinking water and livelihood of dependant agriculture, fresh drinking water and livelihood of dependant communities, thousands of hectares of fertile soil will become salinecommunities, thousands of hectares of fertile soil will become saline

Temperature increases could also adversely affect local flora and Temperature increases could also adversely affect local flora and fauna of coastal areas, as well as the biological equilibrium of marine fauna of coastal areas, as well as the biological equilibrium of marine life. life.

Even with drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, sea level Even with drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, sea level will continue to rise for centuries beyond 2100 because of the long will continue to rise for centuries beyond 2100 because of the long response time of the global ocean system. response time of the global ocean system.

Human HealthHuman Health

Build-up of high concentrations of air pollutants Build-up of high concentrations of air pollutants such as CO2, NO2, ozone, and air-borne such as CO2, NO2, ozone, and air-borne particulates in large urban areas will lead to particulates in large urban areas will lead to adverse health impacts adverse health impacts

Increased incidence of respiratory and cardio-Increased incidence of respiratory and cardio-vascular diseasesvascular diseases

Increased incidence of Vector borne disease Increased incidence of Vector borne disease epidemics of malaria, dengue fever, etcepidemics of malaria, dengue fever, etc

Human DimensionsHuman Dimensions The elderly, women and children are most vulnerable to The elderly, women and children are most vulnerable to

severity of climateseverity of climate

Heat strokes to increase Heat strokes to increase

Heat exhaustion incidences to increaseHeat exhaustion incidences to increase

Weakened immune systemWeakened immune system

Climate refugees to increaseClimate refugees to increase

Impacts on EnergyImpacts on Energy

Greater demand of energyGreater demand of energy Reduced hydropower generation because Reduced hydropower generation because

of low water supplyof low water supply Windmills – vulnerable in coastal areas to Windmills – vulnerable in coastal areas to

cyclonic activitycyclonic activity Reduced utilization of solar energy – due to Reduced utilization of solar energy – due to

increased cloudiness as a result of high increased cloudiness as a result of high evapotranspirationevapotranspiration

Coping with the Climate ChangeCoping with the Climate ChangeAssessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts of Assessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts of

vulnerable areas and communitiesvulnerable areas and communities

Reliance on climate-sensitive sectors Reliance on climate-sensitive sectors Over-stressed natural resourcesOver-stressed natural resources

Identify and prioritize adaptation options in Identify and prioritize adaptation options in key sectors key sectors (e.g. drought resistant crops, early (e.g. drought resistant crops, early warning systems)warning systems)

Complement national development Complement national development policies and mitigation measures;policies and mitigation measures;

Actions on climate changeActions on climate changeMitigationMitigation::

Promoting low-carbon energy sources and technologiesPromoting low-carbon energy sources and technologies Promoting energy conservation and efficiencyPromoting energy conservation and efficiency Reducing emissions from deforestationReducing emissions from deforestation AdaptationAdaptation::

Integrating climate risks into policies Integrating climate risks into policies and planning at different levelsand planning at different levels

Addressing climate impacts Addressing climate impacts in various sectorsin various sectors

Building the capacity of communities to Building the capacity of communities to cope with climate change related problemscope with climate change related problems

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