BUILDING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY IN THE CONSERVATION OF CLIMATE-TOLERANT TRADITIONAL RICE VARIETIES

IN TAMIL NADU, INIDIA

By

KUDUMBAM LEISA Network

In collaboration with Pesticide Action Network Asia and the Pacific

April 2011

PAN AP CLIMATE CHANGE AND RICE REPORTS

Building Adaptive Capacity in the Conservation of Climate-Tolerant Traditional Rice Varieties in Tamil Nadu, India Research Organization: KUDUMBAM LEISA Network Coordinated & Written: Dr. A. Sathya Suresh Kannak Oswald Quintal Publisher: Pesticide Action Network, Asia and Pacific PO Box 1170, 10850 Penang, Malaysia www.panap.net Editor: Peter Gillespie Proofreading and Layout : Brigette DePape Enquiries may be directed to: Mr Oswald Quintal, KUDUMBAM LEISA Network, at

kudumbamtry@yahoo.co.in or panap@panap.net.

This study was part of a regional project conducted by the Save Our Rice Campaign of PAN AP in collaboration with sixteen network partner organizations. The aim was to assess the level of vulnerability and adaptive capacities of rice-growing communities in the Philippines, Indonesia, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh by documenting the impacts of climate change on the communities and their adaptation practices. The longer-term goal was to identify ways to improve the adaptive capacities of these and other vulnerable communities. From 2009 to March 2011, twenty studies were carried out. This publication may be reproduced in full or in part as long as the research organization and publisher are properly acknowledged as the sources and PAN AP is furnished with copies of the final work where the reproduction appears. April 2011

Table of Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Objectives of the Project 1 1.2 Mapping Rice Growing Areas Vulnerable to the Impact of Climate

Change 2

1.3 Identification of Varieties and Selection of Study Sites 3 1.3.1 Climatic change condition 1: drought 4 1.3.2 Climatic change condition 2: flood 5 1.3.3 Climatic change condition 3: salinity 6 2.0 CAPACITY BUILDING 7 2.1 Results Analysis, Comparison and Conclusions 7 2.1.1 Drought conditions 7 2.1.2 Flood conditions 8 2.1.3 Salinity conditions 8 3.0 OUTPUTS 9 4.0 FOLLOW-UP AND UP-SCALING 10 4.1 Challenges 10 4.2 Lessons Learned 11 4.3 Recommendations for Policies & Up-scaling 11 5.0 A STUDY ON ONGOING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN TAMIL

NADU, INDIA 12

List of Tables Table 1 Farmers experimenting with drought tolerant varieties 4 Table 2 Farmers experimenting with flood tolerant varieties 5 Table 3 Farmers experimenting with saline tolerant varieties 6 Table 4 Results of analysis of varieties in drought conditions 7 Table 5 Result of analysis of varieties in flood conditions 8 Table 6 Result of analysis of varieties in saline conditions 8 List of Figures Figure 1 Crop region map, Tamil Nadu, India 12 Figure 2 Statement showing Tamil Nadu monthly rainfall departure in

percentage for 5 years 14

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1.0 INTRODUCTION

Rice is a crop of paramount importance in India. Climate change is perceived as a

serious threat to rice farming systems in the Cauvery river basin and Tamil Nadu as a

whole. The district of Nagapattinam, Tamil Nadu is severely affected by cyclones, floods

and salinity which have led to a decline in rice production. Pudukottai district is under the

rain shadow region with a prolonged dry climate. Tamil Nadu is already extremely

vulnerable to the vagaries of weather. Due to erratic rainfall in quantity and distribution, the

state is often confronted with drought and floods. Moreover, the expected effects of

climate change range from changing rainfall patterns to increased salinity of the soil.

Natural selection and breeding techniques have evolved many cultivars of rice in Tamil

Nadu and have the potential to perform well in different climatic stresses like drought,

floods and salinity. But due to the advent of the Green Revolution, the landraces have

slowly been replaced with HYVs (High Yielding Varieties). It has been reported that 400

traditional varieties have been slowly replaced by HYVs, narrowing the number to

hundreds. This has led to the loss of the genetic pool of many landraces that can adapt

to the ongoing climate change in Tamil Nadu.

Tamil Nadu has now been left with nearly a hundred traditional landraces of paddy that have

the capability to cope with ongoing climate change in Tamil Nadu. In order to assess the

possibilities of conservation and restoration of traditional varieties and landraces of rice

that can cope with the drought, flood and salinity, a study was planned to evaluate the

hardiness and climate adaptability of traditional varieties of paddy. This project aimed to

restore climate tolerant traditional varieties in selected districts of Tamil Nadu with

respect to hardiness, adaptability, sustainability and productivity.

1.1 Objectives of the Project

1. To identify rice-growing areas in Tamil Nadu (TN) vulnerable to and impacted by drought, floods and salinity as a result of climate change.

2. To identify drought, flood and saline tolerant traditional local rice varieties in TN and determine their ecological conditions, yield, taste preference criteria etc.

3. To identify 3 study sites for each hazard (droughts, floods and salinity) with similar ecological conditions as in (2) above

4. To conduct capacity-building exercises with selected farmers/farms in the 9 study sites to propagate each climate-tolerant variety of rice along with supportive ecological practices like green manuring, eco-friendly microbial inoculants etc., and establish community seed banks.

5. To draw conclusions and comparisons between the results of the different study sites.

6. To ensure a follow-up support plan for the study sites.

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7. To make recommendations for policy advocacy and scaling-up the project to other vulnerable areas in TN.

1.2 Mapping Rice Growing Areas Vulnerable to the Impact of Climate Change

The present study enabled a mapping of areas largely concentrated with rice and the region seriously affected by climate change with special reference to rice. This is the Cauvery delta zone. In Tamil Nadu, the Cauvery Delta has a geographical area of 8.21 lakha hectares (20.5 lakh acres) that spreads in Thanjavur district, Musiri, and Tiruchirapalli, Lalgudi, Thuraiyur and Kulithalai taluks of Major Tiruchirapalli district, Aranthangi taluk of Pudukottai district and Chidambaram and Kattumannarkoil taluks of Cuddalore, Nagapattinam and Villupuram districts. The Cauvery watershed covers nearly 4.86 lakh hectares (12.0 lakh acres), i.e. 58 % of the geographical area, of which 1.62 lakh hectares (4.0 lakh acres) is a double cropped area and the balance of 3.24 lakh hectares (8.0 lakh acres) is a single crop area of rice. In these districts, rice is the principal mono- crop. This zone receives an annual normal rainfall of 956.3 mm. It covers the rivers of Cauvery, Vennaru, Kudamuruti, Paminiar, Arasalar and Kollidam. The major dams utilized in this zone are Mettur and Bhavanisagar. Canal irrigation, well irrigation and lake irrigation are practiced. Other major crops grown in this zone are sugarcane, cotton, groundnut, sunflower, banana and ginger. The five districts that depend on the Cauvery for irrigation produce over 40% of the food crop in Tamil Nadu. The agricultural economy directly employs over 4.4 million people in the delta. Cultivation failures have impacted the economy as a whole, causing ripple effects with far-reaching consequences. Thousands of farmers in the Cauvery delta are being forced to come to terms with a new reality: perennial water scarcity. The lack of water in the rain-fed Cauvery is destroying livelihoods and disrupting communities. The region has been affected by an acute drought after three years of failed monsoons (2002-2004) and an ongoing, acrimonious and unresolved dispute with the upper riparian neighboring state of Karnataka over the waters of its lifeline, the river Cauvery. Water supply from the Cauvery is erratic. When the farmers need water for the Kuruvai crop in July, the water is released sometime in September-October and only for a very short period. There is also inequity in the irrigation system where upstream farmers deny the share due to downstream farmers - in traditional systems, the first rights belonged to the downstream agriculturist. In the present study, farmers of Velankanni and Poraiyar regions were facing this late release of water for irrigation and hence they chose short duration traditional varieties for the experimentation of their adaptability to climate change. Traditional cropping patterns, tested over millennia, are now unfeasible. This is a reality farmers find hard to accept. Typically, the upland area is covered by kuruvai (main cropping, long duration paddy) and thaladi (optional third cropping, subject to the availability of water). The middle and tail-end holdings raised the samba crop (short-duration paddy). Traditionally, water from nearby tanks was used to raise nurseries of paddy saplings. The water from the Cauvery meets the irrigation water demand after

a 1 lakh = 100,000 units

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transplantation. Multiple-cropping depended entirely on water from the Cauvery, either stored or released or through rain overflow. Consecutive failure of the monsoons and the short-sighted policies of the governments have added to the water management problems in the Cauvery basin. Hence, the rice farms in the Cauvery delta have been seriously affected by climate change. The present study, carried out at Pudukottai, Velankanni and Poraiyar, has shed light on the practical difficulties faced by rice farmers.

1.3 Identification of Varieties and Selection of Study Sites

After earmarking the vulnerable areas under rice cultivation and identifying the Cauvery

delta region, a detailed surveillance of the extent, type and number of traditional rice

varieties that are still extant and prevalent in the areas prone for either

drought/salinity/flood was undertaken by the field staff. They collected details and

information pertaining to the nature of each traditional variety, the agro-climatic

conditions suitable for the cultivation of traditional varieties, etc.

A detailed study format was developed and circulated to the staff to record information

about traditional paddy seeds and its characteristics in withstanding specific climatic

conditions, special properties such as medicinal use, place of present availability,

climatic requirements, nutritive value, resistance to pest and diseases, etc.

Formats also included names of the varieties, other synonyms, their special nutritional,

agronomical and medicinal characters, appropriate, season, water requirement and

other environmental parameters, and their adaptability to any of the stresses including

drought, flood and salinity were recorded.

Based on the format, the field staff were involved in data collection on traditional paddy

varieties by visiting the identified districts and farmers’ fields. They also collected

samples of different varieties for analysis and selection. The data collected has been

analyzed carefully considering the characteristics of the variety and its growing ability in

the agro ecological conditions before selecting the varieties for each location.

A discussion and meeting was then organized to shortlist and select varieties based on

availability and adaptability. Initially 15-20 varieties were enlisted with adaptability to

drought, flood and salinity. Later, based on availability and preferences by farmers and

considering practical problems such as late onset of monsoon and late release of water,

the varieties were shortlisted to 3 per stress condition. After identifying and short-listing

the varieties, efforts were taken to procure them from traditional farmers and NGO seed

banks.

Cauvery delta

4

Names of varieties chosen for drought adaptability trial: (1) Sivappu Kuruvikkar (2)

Kallundai Samba (3) Suran Kuruvai

Name of varieties chosen for flood adaptability tiral: (1) Kumbaalai (2) Paal

Kudavaalai (3) Sivappu Kudavaalai

Name of varieties chosen for salinity adaptability: (1) Kalundai Samba (2) Suran

Kuruvai & (3) Arupatham Kuruvai

The project started in August 2009 for a period of one year, covering one season –

purely under rain fed conditions with organic methods of crop cultivation. As a pilot

project, this research project involved 3 farmers for each climatic condition i.e., 3

farmers with 3 varieties for drought, 3 farmers with 3 varieties for Salinity and 3 farmers

with 3 varieties for flooding. Hence, this project involved 9 experimenting farmers

(including 2 women farmers and wives of male farmers) in 2 districts, namely

Pudukkottai and Nagappattinam in the Cauvery delta. Out of the selected 9 farmers,

only 8 farmers participated to the end of the pilot project. Moreover, the farmers

experimenting with drought tolerant traditional varieties were willing to spare 10-20 cents

for the pilot project. In the case of flood and drought conditions, the farmers were willing

to conduct the pilot project with less than 5 cents. So it was not possible to conduct this

trial uniformly in 25 cents in the chosen 3 conditions as outlined in the proposal. After

completion of the pilot project, the farmers were ready to scale up to ½ an acre per

variety. The details of the farmers, experimental varieties, size of the experimental fields

and yield details are presented as follows:

1.3.1 Climatic change condition 1: drought

Village name: Valiyampatti, Valiyampatti Panchayat, Pudukkottai District.

Table 1: Farmers experimenting with drought tolerant varieties

Name of the farmer Name of the varieties

experimented

Size of the

experimental field

Ms. Ponnammal Suran Kuruvai 20 cents

Kallundai Samba 20 cents

Osuvakottthalai 20 cents

Mr. Murugesan Sivappu Kuruvikkar 20 cents

Suran Kuruvai 13 cents

Osuvakotthalai 10 cents

Ms. Chinnapoonu Sivappu Kuruvikkar 10 cents

Kallundai Samba 10 cents

5

1.3.2 Climatic change condition 2: flood

Village name: Orathur & Gramathu Medu, Nagappattinam District.

Table 2: Farmers experimenting with flood tolerant varieties

Name of the farmer Name of the varieties

experimented

Size of the

experimental field

Mr. Balu Koombaalai 1.5 cents

Sivappu Kudavaalai 1.5 cents

Mr. Shankar Sivappu Kudavaalai 4 cents

Paal Kudavaalai 2.5 cents

Mr. Murugananathan Koombaalai 2 cents

Paal Kudavaalai 9 cents

Balu’s field with Koombalai variety shows excellent growth and distinct look

Different stages of Kallundai Samba variety in Ponnammal’s field

6

1.3.3 Climatic change condition 3: salinity

Village name: Vepencherry and Mauthampallam village, Nagappattinam District.

Table 3: Farmers experimenting with saline tolerant varieties

Name of the farmer Name of the varieties

experimented

Size of the

experimental field

Mr. Kaliyamoorthy Kallundai samba 3.1 cents

Suran Kuruvai 6.5 cents

Arupatham Kuruvai 6.5 cents

Mr. Shanmugam Kallundai Sampa 6.8 cents

Arupatham Kuruvai 5.8 cents

Suran Kuruvai 6.5 cents

Objectives and significance of the study. After training, the field staff selected the

villages (study sites) for the study in the identified districts and also identified interested

farmers willing to participate in the experimentation with traditional paddy varieties to

address the climatic challenges in rice farming.

In order to document the process of the research, a documentation format was

developed and the field staff recorded plant height, number of tillers, number of

productive tillers, length of panicle, number of grains per panicle, 100 grain weight,

duration, etc.

Comparison of grains between Kalundai samba and ADT 38 varieties in Shanmugam’s field

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2.0 CAPACITY BUILDING

The field staff made periodic visits, practical

demonstrations of bio-manure production

and other technical methods on organic

agriculture methods. Kudumbam

collaborated with SASTRA university to

engage one of its scientists, Dr. A. Sathya,

to facilitate the study and she made periodic

visit to the experimental fields, reviewed the

progress of documentation, and gave

appropriate guidance and technical support to the field staff and farmers in the pilot

study. Particular importance was given to provide technical inputs to women farmers.

Farmers were also oriented on the importance of conservation of traditional varieties,

seed banks through one to one discussions, meetings and field visits.

2.1 Results Analysis, Comparison and Conclusions

The results collected from various sites and varieties are tabulated as follows:

2.1.1 Drought conditions

Table 4: Results of analysis of varieties in drought conditions

Name of the

farmer

Name of the

varieties

experimented

Size of the

experimental

field

Yield from

the

experimental

field

Yield per

acre

1bag=60kg

Ms.

Ponnammal

Suran Kuruvai 20 cents ------------ Crop failure

Kallundai Samba 20 cents 4 bags 20 bags

Osuvakottthalai 20 cents 3 bags 15 bags

Mr. Murugesan Sivappu Kuruvikkar 20 cents 1 bag 5 bags

Suran Kuruvai 13 cents -------------- Crop failure

Osuvakotthalai 10 cents 25 kgs 4 bags

Ms.

Chinnapoonu

Sivappu Kuruvikkar 10 cents 40 kgs 6.5 bags

Kallundai Samba 10 cents --------------- Crop failure

The varieties introduced (Kallundai Samba and Sivappu Kurivikkar) for drought tolerance

were able to germinate in the absence of rain for 45 days after the seed sowing.

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2.1.2 Flood conditions

Table 5: Result of analysis of varieties in flood conditions

Name of the

farmer

Name of the

varieties

experimented

Size of the

experimental

field

Yield from

the

experimental

field

Yield per

acre

1bag=60kg

Mr. Balu Koombaalai 1.5 cents 50 Kgs 62 Bags

Sivappu

Kudavaalai

1.5 cents Crop failure Crop failure

Mr. Shankar Sivappu

Kudavaalai

4 cents 1.5 bags 37.5 bags

Paal Kudavaalai 2.5 cents 1.5 bags 59.5 bags

Mr.

Murugananathan

Koombaalai 2 cents 0.5 bags 27.5 bags

Paal Kudavaalai 9 cents 2.5 bags 27.5 bags

Grains were filled very intact without any gaps in the panicle. Though the culms bent

down, the panicles did not bend but stood upright. Hence, there was no loss due to

lodging (Paal Kudavaalai)

Stem size and thickness was more and the leaf was also very thick and hence less

pest attacks observed. Grains were large in size. The stem of the plant was very firm

and stiff.(Paal Kudavaalai)

There was no damage to the crop during the torrential rain in November 2009 and

the crop was able to withstand flood conditions very well. (Koombaalai)

2.1.3 Salinity conditions

Table 6: Result of analysis of varieties in saline conditions

Name of the

farmer

Name of the varieties

experimented

Size of the

experimental

field

Yield from

the

experimental

field

Yield per

acre

1bag=60kg

Mr.

Kaliyamoorthy

Kallundai samba 3.1 cents 54 Kgs 29 Bags

Suran Kuruvai 6.5 cents ----------- Crop

failure

Arupatham Kuruvai 6.5 cents 36 Kgs 9 Bags

9

Mr.

Shanmugam

Kallundai Sampa 6.8 cents 54 Kgs 13 Bags

Arupatham Kuruvai 5.8 cents 36 Kgs 10 Bags

Suran Kuruvai 6.5 cents ------------ Crop

failure

3.0 OUTPUTS

As per the expected outcomes, it was possible to identify adaptable varieties to

climate change. For each climatic condition, out of the 3 varieties chosen, at least 2

traditional paddy varieties under screening seemed to be adaptable and have been

identified as potential varieties with adaptive capacity to ongoing climate change.

Moreover, a detailed documentation on their vegetative and reproductive phase was

conducted. General documentation collected about many traditional paddy varieties

now serve as a reference record to many other special properties of traditional

varieties. Salient features like large grain size, more grain length, longer panicle,

increased tillers, plant height, increased grain yield per acre, and increased stalk

yield were recorded in all the climatic options.

The seeds were procured from the farmers and seed banks established in the

respective villages. The experimenting farmers are given the responsibility to

maintain the seed bank. Based on the feedback by experimenting farmers, the other

farmers of their respective villages are now showing interest about these tolerant

traditional varieties. Moreover, the organic farming approach with minimal expenses

but with appreciable returns has made a positive impact for conservation and

propagation of these varieties through biodiversity-based ecological agriculture.

Conservation strategies have been formulated: Based on the results of this pilot

study, the difficulties and benefits experienced by the farmers have been shared with

fellow farmers. The self help groups sponsored by Tamil Nadu governments located

in each street/village can be supplied with sample seeds for trial in interested

farmers’ fields. The importance of climate change, identification of varieties to cope

with climate change, and conservation and propagation of varieties identified in the

pilot study, can be undertaken by these groups by organizing a workshop for them.

Above all, if the yield obtained could be procured for a reasonable price, many

farmers will definitely opt for these climate tolerant traditional varieties. Creation of

market and procurement has to be borne by us. For this, financial support and value

addition methodologies have to be developed.

Other areas vulnerable to climate change in Tamil Nadu have been earmarked for

immediate attention and for further up-scaling of this project, including Kanyakumari,

Ramanathanpuram, North Arcot districts. But up-scaling this project and promoting

these varieties in these districts will need financial investment and co-ordination

among NGOs located in these districts.

The teaching and demonstration of technical know-how in cultivation of climate

tolerant traditional rice varieties, organic farming, in-situ conservation, community

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seed banks, watershed conservation, etc has equipped this handful of farmers with

the capacity and confidence to adopt traditional varieties to face the climate change

challenge.

Capacity-building with a few farmers and self-help groups can be scaled up.

4.0 FOLLOW-UP AND UP-SCALING

All the participating farmers who realized the adaptive capacity of the traditional paddy

varieties with respect to yield (grain & stalk) are ready to scale up and extend the area of

these paddy varieties in the next season to a minimum of half an acre. The following are

the varieties proposed by the farmers for scaling up.

For drought conditions: Kallundai Samba and Sivappu Kuruvikkar

For Flood conditions: Koombaalai and Paal Kudavaalai

For Saline conditions: Kallundai Samba and Arupatham Kuruvai

The performance of traditional paddy varieties for climatic stress conditions has

encouraged the experimenting farmers to up-scale research in the next year. The

availability of climate tolerant varieties within the village has motivated other farmers to

choose to cultivate traditional paddy varieties. In each location, 10 more farmers are

willing to cultivate these varieties in the next cropping season.

The organic method of cultivation and conservation has opened the eyes of many

farmers and hence biodiversity-based ecological agriculture can be gradually restored in

more and more areas.

The encouragement and support given to women farmers in this project has motivated them to up-scale the project if assurance to procure their produce can be provided.

4.1 Challenges

Lack of marketing support on par with existing hybrid paddy varieties such as Ponni

is a major concern expressed by the farmers. Procurement cost is less than 50%

compared to the commercial Ponni variety. This discourages farmers from

continuing to farm traditional rice varieties.

Traditional varieties tolerant to extreme climatic conditions were identified and ranked (based on yield, duration and tolerance capacity) through the survey and by oral discussion with experienced farmers, in order to select and evaluate them for 3 different conditions (Drought, Flood and Salinity). As our project aimed to identify and evaluate the climate tolerance of traditional rice varieties, we need to identify promising traditional varieties based on a preliminary survey. The farmers were ready to undertake trials for the evaluation of climate tolerance capacity of these traditional varieties only if they were convinced that these selected traditional rice varieties had some reported level of capacity without ending up with total failure. We initially listed climate tolerant traditional rice varieties based on

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our survey. But we faced the following problems while we tried to procure these preliminarily listed varieties:

Seeds of some varieties enlisted were not available to be evaluated in the study.

While some varieties were available, sufficient quantity was not available in order to

supply the farmers in season.

Non-available traditional varieties which were included in the preliminary survey had to be abandoned. Remaining varieties which were available in time and reportedly with some level of tolerance (but not proven/evaluated) based on oral communications, were procured and supplied to the farmers with respect to the character of these traditional varieties in the three different climatic problems.

Although the preferred traditional varieties were not available, this does not mean that they are the best/worst; this project is evaluating and screening the extent of climate tolerance capacity of identified varieties. We can select and evaluate only from available traditional varieties. There are reports from elderly farmers that some better traditional rice varieties exist but which were not available to include in the study.

Farmers experienced total crop failure with one of the chosen varieties because of

the poor seed qualities (Suran Kuruvai)

The emergence of speedy and deeper roots of seedlings in the flood tolerant variety

(Sigappu Kudavaalai) in the nursery made the transplantation process very difficult.

4.2 Lessons Learned

Participatory learning processes are required to motivate farmers on the importance of

traditional seed varieties that will sustain their household income during difficult times.

With such a small group of farmers, the space for collective learning and sharing is

minimal. Moreover, the small size of the experimenting farmers minimized community

involvement in the research for retrieval and up-scaling. Ensuring wider publicity and

dissemination of any research activity requires the minimum involvement and interaction

of 10-15 farmers in each locality.

4.3 Recommendations for Policies & Up-scaling

Kanyakumari, Ramanathanpuram, and North Arcot districts are other areas

vulnerable to climate change in Tamil Nadu and have been earmarked for immediate

attention and for further up-scaling of this project. But scaling-up this project and

promoting these varieties will need financial investment and co-ordination among

NGOs located in these districts.

Up-scaling can also be done in the villages under the present study by involving

more farmers and promotion in more areas.

Many other villages in the presently identified vulnerable districts of Cauvery delta

can also be included in future studies and up scaling.

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The self-help groups sponsored by Tamil Nadu governments located in each street/village can be supplied with sample seeds for trial in the fields of interested farmers and field demonstrations can be undertaken through additional promotion at the grassroots levels.

Arrangements for the procurement of produce has to be made to assure financial returns to farmers, not only in bags but also in cash.

5.0 A STUDY ON ONGOING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN TAMIL NADU, INDIA

Figure 1: Crop region map, Tamil Nadu, India

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A special effort was undertaken to assess ongoing climate change in Tamil Nadu. The field staff collected data from local meteorological offices and overall data was also collected from the meteorological department of Tamil Nadu about the deviations and departures of monsoon in all districts. Above all, the personal experiences shared by the participating farmers about climate change served as the best source of information. The unpredictable and sudden torrential rain due to depressions and late onset of monsoon with scanty rainfall has been common during the last 3 to 4 years. The data and the observations presented below demonstrate that within a single season the amount of rain varies unpredictably. Due to unprecedented rainfall, water logging is common in coastal districts and salt water intrusion from rising sea levels has been reported by participating farmers. The drought prone districts, including Pudukottai, experienced late onset of monsoon with scanty rainfall making rain fed agriculture impossible. Implications on overall climate change scenario in Tamil Nadu based on observations of rainfall data collected over five years are as follows: 1. The amount of rain fall in the year 2005 and 2008 has been excessive, by 44% and

31% respectively. In the year 2008, the NISHA cyclone caused massive losses to crops and property. The tsunami hit coastal Tamil Nadu in 2008, affecting land and crops and thousands of coastal people.

2. The North-east monsoon period is the beneficial rain period in Tamil Nadu. In 2006, 2007 and 2009, there was deficient rainfall. In December 2006 (-68) November 2007 (-51) and October 2009 (-65). Uneven rainfall patterns lead to non-availability of water for rain fed agriculture. In the present study, since there was deficient rainfall in October, the raising up of seedlings, establishment of seedlings and transplantation operations could not be carried out in time, leading to loss of seedlings.

3. Only in the month of May, the amount of rainfall was categorized as ‘Normal’ in the five year period. But May is the hottest month of the year when all the agricultural operations in Tamil Nadu come to a standstill. So this pattern has no practical use, especially for Paddy.

4. During the Southwest monsoon period, June to September: In 2005 - June and August recorded deficient rainfall In 2006 - July, August and September recorded deficient rainfall In 2007 & 2008 - September alone recorded deficient rainfall In 2009 - June and July recorded deficient rainfall During the Southwest monsoon period, even short duration crops are hampered due to fluctuating rainfall patterns. In Tamil Nadu, a short duration variety of paddy that was once cultivated regularly is no longer cultivated.

5. The distribution of rainfall over various districts has not been uniform over these years and has been the main cause of crop failures in rain fed districts like Pudukottai. In coastal districts such as Nagapattinam, Karaikal, and Cuddalore, incessant rains and storms due to climate change have led to water logging and submergence.

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The Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research reported that if the predictions related to global warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change come to fruition, climate-related factors could cause shifts in the growing seasons for major crops such as rice, and production could fall by 40%. Around seven million people are projected to be displaced due to, among other factors, submersion of parts of Mumbai and Chennai, if global temperatures were to rise by a mere 2 °C (3.6 °F).b

b Sethi, Nitin (3 February 2007). "Global warming: Mumbai to face the heat". Times of India.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/India/Global_warming_Mumbai_to_face_the_heat/articleshow/msid-1556662,curpg-1.cms.

Appendix 1 - Monthly Rainfall in Percentage

Figure 2: Statement showing Tamil Nadu monthly rainfall departure in percentage for 5 years