Adapting a Rice Farm to Climate Change.

Laurie ArthurRice Farmer

The problem

Date

1895

1899

1903

1907

1911

1915

1919

1923

1927

1931

1935

1939

1943

1947

1951

1955

1959

1963

1967

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

NSW Murray Allocation announcements modelled since 1892 on todays development

Oct Announced June Announced

Year ending June

% A

llo

cati

on

91/92

92/93

93/94

94/95

95/96

96/97

97/98

98/99

99/00

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

09/11

09/12

91/92

92/93

93/94

94/95

95/96

96/97

97/98

98/99

99/00

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

09/11

09/12

Cereal ton

NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 1938

1947

2429

2297

3410

2170

2341

2558

3742

2325

460 220 713 2900

NaN

Rice ton

1676

2373

2640

2721

2434

3356

3306

2799

3524

4877

4600

188 3103

3187

4807

936 0 0 544 4200

NaN

Allocation

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 45 100 100 10 56 50 60 0 0 9 21 100 NaN

500

1500

2500

3500

4500

5500

10

30

50

70

90

110

Grain tonnage per financial year

Cereal ton

Rice ton

Allocation

Financial Year

To

nn

es o

f g

rain

% o

f al

loca

tio

n

Managing Climate change Risk

• Invest in on farm efficiency• Move to dry land farming systems• Reduce gearing to allow opportunity cropping• Move to new crops and cropping systems• Spend nothing and tough it out• Create a rice industry in Northern Australia

All after several years of minimal income

Why rice in the Ord?

• Tired of no water in south• Australia’s highest security water• Murray Valley and Ord Valley rainfall patterns

seem to be counter cyclical• With a critical mass it has a logistical

advantage• Rice has a deep world market• Australians have the expertise

Moulamein to Kununurra 3800km

Rice out in head

The magpie geese stayed away

Lessons to date

• M Valley Quest med grain 150 days12ml/ha• Ord Quest medium grain 100 days- 6ml/ha• M Valley yield 10.5 tons / ha • Ord yield 8 tons / ha• Sowing rates need to increase• M V grain quality- premium 65% w g mill-out• Ord grain quality- results from PNG soon

Will there be a rice industry up north?

• Must contain rice handling costs• Need to increase the yields• Need additional storage facilities• A rice R&D program must breed

dedicated northern varieties• Must reach a critical mass

(10,000 ton) soon

• Grow 800 ha each year in the north• Grow up to 800 ha in the south when water is

available• Run both enterprises as related units• Help to establish an agricultural powerhouse

in the north• Not break the southern operation pursuing

the north

What I would like to do