Climate Change and Potential Impacts for the Aquaculture and Fisheries Sector in ASEAN+3

Dr. Nelson A. Lopez Chief, Inland Fisheries and Aquaculture Division

Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources 2/F PCA Bldg., Elliptical Rd., Diliman, Quezon City, 1101 Philippines

and

Dr. Marie-Caroline Badjeck

Scientist-Climate Change Quest_Fish Project www.quest-fish.org.uk

The WorldFish Center Penang, Malaysia

Regional Workshop on Climate Change and Food Security in the ASEAN +3 Countries Beijing, China

29-31 March 2011

Presentation Outline: PART I

• Overview/Objectives

• Program Implementation (Year 1-2)

• Synthesis of Country Reports

• Summary Recommendations

PART II

• Climate Change Research at the WorldFish Centre

PART III

• Conclusion

• Regional Networking Scheme

Objectives: Gain information from experts on climate change; impacts on aquaculture, measures to mitigate, and options to be able to adopt changes; Share within ASEAN and ROK the impact of climate change in their aquaculture based on their experience and observations; Present actions taken to address or prepare for the impact;

Create or develop a regional network that encourage and enable exchange/update of information and experiences on the issues on the effects of climate change in aquaculture; and Come up with unified regional policy guidelines and harmonized efforts to address emerging issues and actions applicable to address climate change impacts in aquaculture.

PART - I

Year 1 (2010) Program Implementation

• Seminar-Workshop on the “ASEAN-ROK Information

Exchange on the Impact of Climate Change in Aquaculture”

o August 16 to 25, 2010 o Busan, South Korea o Hosted by NFRDI o Organized by BFAR

• Thematic Lectures on : CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT IN GLOBAL FISH SUPPLY CLIMATE CHANGE IN FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE: REGIONAL

PERSPECTIVE - IMPACT AND ADAPTATION MEASURES ROK POLICY ON CC PROGRAM ADAPTATION IN AQUACULTURE

• Presentation of Country Experiences • Workshop/Action Planning/FGDs • Plenary/Adaption of Workshop Agreements • Observation and Field Trip

Year 2 (2011) Networking Projections

• Consultation Meeting with Regional Fisheries Institutions & Donor Agencies Date : 27-28 April 2011 Venue : Busan, Korea Host Institution : NFRDI Organized by : BFAR

• Program Presentation; Round-Table-Discussion; Workshop Consultation

• Objectives of the Regional Consultation-Workshop:

To present, discuss and evaluate Year 1 project outputs as focal subject of regional networking interventions by concerned institutions;

To present regional/international priority and pipelined programs of donor Institutions/agencies relative to climate change adaptation in aquaculture with the end in-view of addressing emerging issues and future trends of impacts to the industry in the region; and To harmonize, consolidate and integrate all institutional intervention approach into a cohesive and concerted efforts thru a regional networking.

Synthesis of Country Reports -Group A

Exposure to climate change potentials: Sea Surface Temperature rise Oceanographic variables

Sea level rise

Flood

Drought

Storms Cyclones

Water Stress /quality

Water body lake / surface temp rise

Highest Vulnerability indicator: Freshwater drought (El Nino/La Nina) Typhoons/Unpredictable Monson Rains/Floodings Highest vulnerable countries: Malaysia Cambodia Vietnam Thailand Philippines Indonesia Myanmar

Interventions: Inventory/assessment

GIS, knowledge base (LEK)

Water management

RAS, integrated systems

Livelihood of smallholders and private sector Policies o Public Private investments adaptation; o Funding Mechanism to assist adaption (e.g. farmers access to funds); o Implications for food importing countries/ to invest in adaptation (ROK)

Summary Recommendations-Group A

Recommendations: • To do a comprehensive mapping in the region to identify where the CC

will effectively impacts to aquaculture; • To enhance technology that can effectively address to impacts of CC; • To disseminate the information of the impacts of CC to all stakeholders

particularly to aquaculture industry; • To do a continuously monitoring and documentation of the impacts; • To establish the standard / unified format of action to overcome the

common impacts in aquaculture in region; • To establish such as regional guidelines to combat the impacts of CC to

aquaculture; • ASEAN Countries should be encourage to willingly support on

establishing the activity of combating CC in the region • One project of the network might involve all ASEAN countries to follow

up the inventory, setting priorities and organize new projects and funding – There should be three or four multilateral projects focusing on one

or two main exposure indicators, under participation of 3 to 4 countries and research institutions and private partners, e.g. a multinational regional project:

Summary Recommendations-Group B ADAPTATION/MITIGATING MEASURES: • Some countries have initiatives on researches/policies/plans/actions on

climate change (CC) adaptation and mitigation measures (agriculture, environment, industry, transport, etc); e.g. on researches, Thailand have activities on shrimp farm adaptation on climate change and mitigation CC on shrimp farming system; on policies and plans, Thailand has a 10-year Strategic Plan on CC.

• Particular emphasis /focus on aquaculture is still wanting; • All countries have established national organization dealing with Climate

Change Adaptation and Mitigation; • Existing national action plans on CC adaptation/mitigation are not

necessarily focused on aquaculture;/mitigation in aquaculture; • There are no concretete/direct actions done to respond to CC

adaptation. • R and D is weakly supported, thus there is a need to encourage

governments to invest more in R and D on aquaculture, especially on CC adaptation/mitigation measures.

• Public-Private investment needs should be highly considered; and • Major importing countries need to be working to invest in adaptation in

producing countries because their food supplies depend on it.

Workshop Group B Recommendations: On Objective No. 4:

• Support/fund CC initiatives on aquaculture in ASEAN;

• Provision of technical assistance to countries impacted by CC;

• Push for public awareness activities;

• Set country initiatives to ensure that the aquaculture sub sector CC adaptation/mitigation measures are considered in national plans, specifically a Masterplan on Aquaculture;

• Set up a network of country focal points in aquaculture (regional and international);

• CC on aquaculture needs to be considered as an agenda in existing working groups in ASEAN (e.g., ASEAN WG on fisheries);

• Country initiatives on aquaculture related to CC

• Set up database/benchmarks;

• Inventory of existing policies, plans, programs and projects;

• Info on advers/beneficial effects of CC;

• Institutions/persons that deals partly/wholly in aquaculturecc adaptation/mitigation;

On Objective No. 5:

• Guidelines should be regional in scope;

• Assistance/support should focus on aquaculture appropriate technologies for member countries impacted by CC;

• Application of sustainable development principles in aquaculture;

• Involvement/consultation between and amongst government, private sector and communities in activities dealing with CC;

• Specific guidelines dealing on aquaculture matters need to be drafted (e.g., adaptation on SLR, protection of shorelines/aquaculture areas);

Summary Recommendations-Group C Researchable Areas: • Appearance of new species- Bio-diversity on certain area to convince present & vulnerable, positive benefits; • Altered breeding cycle/migration path- Simulation Study; Physiology and ecology; Tracking-tapping; Domestication; • Diseases outbreak-Identify pathogen; Host and environment; Cure through vaccination, SPF, SPR program; • Culture system- Introduce new livelihood, apply new system/technique, i.e.Modified technique: Physical , health, water management , stocking density and time , culture protocol , cropping season; • Fish Nutrition- as fish is more than protein , consider the use of micronutrients • Green growth technology- LC analysis; primary productivity; BMP, GAqP, CoC;

• CO2 emission - Integrated farming system; supporting productivity (plankton, see weed); food chain;

• Aquaculture species - New strain; Domestication & Genetics improvement program; Tolerance to new

economic system;

• Antibiotic and chemical application - Introduce new products (probiotics, prebiotics) as applicable/allowable;

• Socio-Economic study-impacts of climate change to the fisheries/aquaculture industry over-time (e.g. losses in GDP; displacements of the industry; loss of jobs, etc.)

Climate Change Research at the WorldFish Centre

www.ccafs.cgiar.org www.climatefish.org http://web.pml.ac.uk/quest-fish

• 45 million fishers & fish farmers, 520 million people depend on fisheries

• 142 million tonnes of fish in 2008, 115 million tonnes for human consumption; 17 kg per capita

• 15 % or more of animal protein for 3 billion people

• 48 % from aquaculture, current value US$106 billion, fastest-growing animal-food-producing sector

What is at stake? Aquatic food production

FAO SOFIA 2010

Effects on: Impacts on:

Production Ecology

Fishing & Aquaculture operations

Communities Livelihoods

Species composition Production & yield Distribution Diseases Coral bleaching Calcification

GLOBAL WARMING

Ocean currents

ENSO

Sea level rise

Rainfall

River flows

Lake levels

Thermal structure

Storm Severity

Storm frequency

Acidification

Safety & efficiency Infrastructure

Loss/damage to assets Risk to health & life Displacement & conflict

Wider society & Economy

Adaptation & mitigation costs Market impacts Water allocation

Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries

Badjeck et al 2010 Marine Policy

Four research themes:

1. Diagnosing vulnerability

2. Understanding current coping mechanism and adaptive responses

3. Contributing to mitigation

4. Building the capacity to respond and adapt at different scales

Climate Change Research at the WFC

FAO

What is the nature and extent of vulnerability at different scales?

Vulnerability to the impacts of climate change on the fisheries sector under scenario SRES B2. Mekong amongst the most vulnerable with Vietnam (27) and Cambodia (30) out of 132. (Allison et al 2009 Fish and Fisheries)

Diagnosing vulnerability – Global scale

FAO

Moderate High No data

Low Very low

Diagnosing vulnerability – Regional & Local

FAO

• World Bank study on the Economics of Adaptation – WF case study Vietnam

• Modeling salinity intrusion in Mekong River Delta under a 50 cm scenario

• Inland catfish aquaculture and rice culture sensitive to changes in salinity =>=> impacts on aquaculture yields

Increment of maximum salinity intrusion (ppt) during the dry season for 50-cm sea level rise scenario (in Kam et al 2010, adapted from SIWRP, 2009)

• How current responses to climate variability confer resilience to future climate change?

• Do short-term coping mechanisms undermine long term adaptive capacity?

Projects:

• Adaptation in floodplains => Encourage rural households to innovate and develop locally appropriate technology for fish culture in seasonal floodplains in Asia

• Responses to disasters (Aceh & Solomon post-tsunami rehabilitation)

Current coping mechanism & adaptive responses

Contributing to mitigation

• How can fisheries and aquaculture contribute to reducing GHGs and emissions?

• What are the effects of mitigation strategies in other sectors on fisheries and aquaculture?

Projects:

• Life-cycle analysis in aquaculture

• Carbon offsets as payments for mangrove ecosystem services for coastal communities in Solomon Islands (AUSAID)

• Mitigation potential in aquaculture (CCAFS)

Building the capacity to respond and adapt

• How to promote, finance and implement adaptation?

• What is the cost of adaptation?

Projects/ Policy engagement • Identify and appraise adaptation

options in aquaculture in the Mekong river Delta (WF/World Bank study)

• Raising the profile of fisheries it’s importance for food security, livelihoods and national economies

• Participation in COP and UNFCC process

Evaluate costs for raising dykes and bunds with incremental flood depth (Kam et al 2010)

Thank You!

Climate change team at the WorldFish Center Dr. Edward H. Allison E-mail: e.allison@cgiar.org Dr. Marie-Caroline Badjeck E-mail: M.Badjeck@cgiar.org

www.climatefish.org

http://web.pml.ac.uk/quest-fish

www.ccafs.cgiar.org

CONLCUSION • Evident Impacts in Fisheries & Aquaculture • Requires monitoring, report validation, impact

assessment, documentations, socioeconomic study

• Capability Building, IEC, awareness, EWS, measures to adapt and mitigate

• Investment to adaptation (i.e. Public-Private & trade of importing countries)

• Urgent needs for R&D interventions • Maximized fund utilization (donorship from intl.

source) to benefit farmers • The need for an institutionalized regional

networking

ADRESSING ISSUES ON: Research and Development Capability Building Information and Education Campaign Awareness &Early Warning System (EWS) Adaptation & Mitigation Measures Policy Guidelines Funding & Donorship

NACA ADB

WFC NFRDI

KOICA JICA

ASEAN-AMS-ASec

MAL THA LAO INA PHI

REGIONAL NETWORKING SCHEME PRINCIPLES OF: Co-operation Collaboration Coordination Complementation

+3 CAM ROK VIE

ADB

NACA SEAFDEC

NFRDI WFC

KOICA JICA

<Lopez, N.A., 2011>

ELIMINATES: Duplications Competitions Bureaucracy Waste of time, money & efforts

THE END