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DR. R. K. PACHAURIChairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeDirector-General, The Energy and Resources Institute

Director, Yale Climate & Energy Institute

CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE CHANGE AND CREATING A SUSTAINABLE CREATING A SUSTAINABLE

FUTUREFUTURE

9th October 2011, Mongolia

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OBSERVED CHANGESOBSERVED CHANGES

Global average sea level

Northern hemispheresnow cover

Global average temperature

Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007

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PROJECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES

(2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5

(oC)

Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century

(best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC)

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INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC SINCE ABOUT 1970 - Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate

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AVERAGE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES INCREASED AT ALMOST TWICE THE GLOBAL AVERAGE RATE IN THE PAST 100 YEARS- Annual average arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7% per decade

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MORE INTENSE AND LONGER DROUGHTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER WIDER AREAS SINCE THE 1970s, PARTICULARLY IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS P

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IMPACTS ON HUMAN HEALTHIMPACTS ON HUMAN HEALTH

• Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts

• Exacerbation of the abundance and toxicity of cholera due to increase in coastal water temperature

• Increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts

Projected climate change-related exposures are likely to affect the health status of millions of people, particularly those with low adaptive capacity

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• Glaciers in Asia are melting faster in recent years than before, particularly the Zerafshan glacier, the Abramov glacier and the glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau

• Glacier melt is projected to increase mudflows, flooding, rock avalanches and adversely affect water resources within the next 2 to 3 decades as well as affect people dependent on glacial melt for their water resources.

• Rapid thawing of permafrost and decrease in depths of frozen soils due largely to rising temperature has threatened many cities and human settlements, has caused more frequent landslides and degeneration of some forest ecosystems, and has resulted in increased lake-water levels in the permafrost region of Asia.

IMPACTS ON WATER IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCESRESOURCES

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IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITYIMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY

• Water stress at low latitudes means losses of productivity for both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture

• Possible yield reduction in agriculture: 50% by 2020 in some African countries

30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia 30% by 2080 in Latin America

• Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa due to climate variability and change

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VULNERABLE VULNERABLE POPULATIONSPOPULATIONS

Vulnerability in developing regions and among poor & marginalised communities is aggravated by low adaptive capacity and non-climate stresses, such as:

Dependence on climate-sensitive resources Integrity of key infrastructure Preparedness and planning Sophistication of the public health system Exposure to conflict

Without appropriate measures, climate change will likely exacerbate the poverty situation and continue to slow down economic growth in developing countries

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POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CLIMATE CHANGE ON

MIGRATION AND CONFLICTSMIGRATION AND CONFLICTS

Numbers of environmental refugees could increase as extreme events, floods and famines become more frequent

Rising ethnic conflicts can be linked to competition over increasingly scarce natural resources

Climate change could force hundreds of millions of people from their native land by the end of the century

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Stabilizationlevel

(ppm CO2-eq)

Global mean temp.

increase (ºC)

Year CO2

needs to peak

Global sea level rise above pre- industrial from

thermal expansion

(m)

445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 – 2015 0.4 – 1.4

490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 – 2020 0.5 – 1.7

535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 – 2030 0.6 – 1.9

590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 – 2060 0.6 – 2.4

CHARACTERISTICS OF CHARACTERISTICS OF STABILIZATION SCENARIOSSTABILIZATION SCENARIOS

POST-TAR STABILIZATION SCENARIOS

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GDP without mitigation

GDP with stringent mitigation

2030

GDP

TimeCurrent

Mitigation would postpone GDP growth of one year at most over the medium term

Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP

IMPACTS OF MITIGATION ON GDP IMPACTS OF MITIGATION ON GDP GROWTHGROWTH

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All stabilization levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a

portfolio of technologies that are currently available or expected to

be commercialized in coming decades

This assumes that investment flows, technology transfer and

incentives are in place for technology development

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BEYOND TECHNOLOGY BEYOND TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIONINNOVATION

The pace, cost and extent of our response to climate change will depend critically on the cost, performance, and availability of technologies

The move towards a low-carbon development pathway requires the adoption of adequate measures:

Effective carbon-price signal Regulations, standards, taxes and charges Changes in lifestyle

INSTRUMENTS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES

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RENEWABLE ENERGY GROWTHRENEWABLE ENERGY GROWTH

RAPID INCREASE IN RECENT YEARS

•140 GW of new RE power plant capacity was built in 2008-2009

•This equals 47% of all power plants built during that period

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TECHNICAL ADVANCEMENTSTECHNICAL ADVANCEMENTS: : Growth in size of typical commercial wind turbines

17

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RE costs have declined in the past and further declines can be expected in the future.

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RE and Climate Change Mitigation PoliciesRE and Climate Change Mitigation Policies20042004

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RE and Climate Change Mitigation PoliciesRE and Climate Change Mitigation Policies20112011

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LaBLaBllLIGHTING A BILLION LIVESLIGHTING A BILLION LIVES

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A technological society has two choices. First it can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies,

distortion and self-deceptions…Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures.