climate change and biodiversity: developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for...
TRANSCRIPT
Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing
impacts and their implications for conservation
Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes
National Botanical Institute, Cape Town
With acknowledgements: Paul Williams, London Nat Hist Mus
Conservation investment
Conservation investment
Conserve species under natural conditionsConserve ecosystems and their natural processesConserve habitats for maintaining biodiversity
Maintain key processes (eg water yield)Support tourism and ecotourism
Support livelihoods (eg wildflower, medicinal)Support commercial agri-business
Protected Areas often selected ad hoc, developed before good species data were available,
on land not wanted or less valuable
Biodiversity no longer static, but dynamic!
Conservation investment
We address two main problems
• How to predict climate change impacts on ecosystems and species (biodiversity)
• How to assess ability of conservation strategies (current PA network) to cope with these impacts
Species distribution
Bioclimatic modeling methodBioclimatic modeling method
Environmental variables
34o 36o
# re
cord
s
34o 36o
Maximum temperature
Max temp envelope
Species distribution
Bioclimatic modeling methodBioclimatic modeling method
Environmental variables
34o 36o
Automated methods
Arcview
Access
SPlus
Grads
Data matching
Species data
Statistical model
Climate data
Future projectionrisk assessment
Protea Atlas database (NBI)330 species (Proteaceae), ~ 40 000 localities
HadCM2
Overall threat of climate change to Proteaceae diversity
Fynbos Biome distribution: current and future
Lowland species
Montane species
Leucospermum tomentosum distribution: current and ~2050(HadCM2 excluding sulphates)
Protea lacticolor distribution: current and future(HadCM2 excluding sulphates)
20 km
contract(highest risk)
persist(safe) colonize
(high risk)
Displacement risk = 1 – persist/current
Proteaceae - displacement risk
y = 0.8736e-0.0003x
R2 = 0.48
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Present Range Size (km2)
Ris
k o
f d
isp
lac
em
en
t
contract(highest risk)
persist(safe) colonize
(high risk)
Extinction risk proportional to range loss(with and without dispersal)
Uncertainties
Climate scenariosSpatial climate data (historic, current)
Species distribution dataBioclimatic modelling approach
Human land useDispersal and establishment
Ant-dispersal Wind-dispersal
Knowledge about dispersal syndromes is critical
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
current 2050 dispersal 2050 no dispersal
Ran
ge
size
(1'
x1' p
ixel
s)
Range size changes (HadCM2)(~250 Proteaceae, 2000 to ~2050)
Automated methods
Arcview
Access
SPlus
Grads
Data matching
Species data
Statistical model
Climate data
Future projectionrisk assessment
Dynamic rangemodelling method
Protected arearisk analysis
Simple rangeshift assumptions
Time-slice models 2000 2010 2020
2030 2040 2050
(se scop)
Richness of dispersal pathways for the 18 species that are committed to migration
Human land use, intensity of transformation
Dispersal pathways
Automated methods
Arcview
Access
SPlus
Grads
Data matching
Species data
Statistical model
Climate data
Future projectionrisk assessment
Dynamic rangemodelling method
Protected arearisk analysis
Simple rangeshift assumptions