climate change group dr. g. midgley (leader) dr. c. musil dr. m. rutherford dr. w. thuiller
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Technical Staff Mr. S. Snyders Mr. D. de Witt Mrs. J. Arnolds. Climate Change Group Dr. G. Midgley (leader) Dr. C. Musil Dr. M. Rutherford Dr. W. Thuiller Mr. Les Powrie Mr. B. Kgope Mr. G. Hughes. Climate Change and Plant Biodiversity. Barney S. Kgope - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Climate Change Group
Dr. G. Midgley (leader)
Dr. C. Musil
Dr. M. Rutherford
Dr. W. Thuiller
Mr. Les Powrie
Mr. B. Kgope
Mr. G. Hughes
Technical Staff
Mr. S. Snyders
Mr. D. de Witt
Mrs. J. Arnolds
Climate Change and Plant Biodiversity
Barney S. Kgope
South African National Biodiversity Institute,
Kirstenbosch Research Center,
Background
What is climate? - An aggregate of daily weather - whose variables interact to support life on earth.
Climate system includes processes involving - land, ocean and sea and these influence - atmosphere.
Biodiversity - variety of life on Earth - significantly influences climate.
Is the climate changing?
Previous Climate
We live on a predominantly cool-adapted planet!
Human Influence - fossil fuels
Where are we now?
UncertaintyDetectionPrediction
PolicyBehaviourTechnology
Adaptation
Climate Change Consequences
Human and animal health - e.g. heat and diseases.
Agriculture - food security (warming and drying).
Sea level rise - melting polar ice caps (potential to submerge coastal cities).
Natural ecosystems - changes in structure and function.
Water supply - decline due to potential decrease in rainfall.
South Africa and Climate Change
[PMG note: photograph not included]
5 spatially dominant biomes - SA
How did past climate change affect this region?
Climate reconstruction
6
12
15
18
0
Time (Kya)
+0.05ºC
-1.82ºC
-3.67ºC
Pollen evidence?
6
12
18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 5000 10000 15000 20000Time (kya)
Restionaceae Ericaceae
------------ traces of both groups ----------
1
1
Shi et al (1998)
Potential Future ?
Water impacts on physiology
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
20 25 30 35 40
Am
ax (
m mol
m-2
s-1
)
Amax TS
Amax GF
Amax AM
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20 25 30 35 40
Am
ax (
mm
ol m
-2 s
-1)
Amax CA
Amax DA
Amax AN
0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.160.180.20
20 25 30 35 40
Leaf Temperature (oC)
Gs
(mo
l m-2
s-1
)
Gs CA
Gs DM
Gs AN
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
20 25 30 35 40
Leaf Temperature (oC)
Gs
(mo
l m-2
s-1
)
Gs TS
Gs GF
Gs AM
Potential shift with climate change (~2050)
Potential for more species. extinction ?Aloe dichotomaAloe dichotoma
(quiver tree)(quiver tree)
Elevated and sub-ambient CO2 worksupporting mechanistic modeling
Test ideas about impacts of fire and CO2
on vegetation structure and function
[PMG note: photograph not included]
DGVM predictions for CO2 sensitivity of African mesic Savanna saplings
Simulated effects of CO2 on stem height Mesic savanna
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Years since burn
Ste
m h
eig
ht
(m)
180
270
360
700
Implications and testsPast contraction of woody elements with
LGM low CO2 (180ppm) – paleoecological record
Bush encroachment since the pre-industrial, and accelerating into the future with significant implications for livelihoods, ecosystem function and carbon sequestration – empirical experiments
Modelled effects of CO2 level alone on
tree success (i.t.o. LAI)using a DGVM
Bond W.J., Midgley G.F. & Woodward, F.I. (2003) The importance of low atmospheric CO2 and fire in promoting the spread of grasslands and savannas. Global Change Biology 9:973-982
Bond W.J., Midgley G.F. & Woodward, F.I. (2003) What controls South African vegetation – climate or fire? South African Journal of Botany.69:1-13
Experimental tests on 3 Savanna woody species and 1 C4 grass
Plants exposed to a full range of CO2 levels viz. 180, 280, 370, 550, 700 and 1000 ppm, in Open Top Chambers
Plants - Acacia karoo, Acacia nilotica, Dichrostachys cinerea and Themeda triandra.
Acacia karroo
550 ppm180 ppm
[PMG note: photographs not included]
Acacia karoo
R2 = 0.71
0
20
40
60
80
0 250 500 750 1000
Chamber [CO2] (ppm)
shoo
t ext
ensi
on (c
m)
From pre-industrialto current CO2 levels?Trees have increased world-wide in savannas
Open savanna, S. Africa1955
Same place, 1998
(from T. Hoffmann, IPC)
[PMG note: photograph not included]
What about potential impacts of the predicted
increases in ambient temperatures?
Scale up research - biogeochemical cycles
•Long Term Ecological Research Sites
•Scale up leaf-canopy-ecosystem-regional-global
•Integrative studies
•Networks – Afri-flux
[PMG note: photograph not included]
RecommendationsSupport – Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to
Climate Change (AIACC)Support International efforts to curb/limit greenhouse
gas emissionsKey intervention - policies promoting sustainable
management of biodiversity on private and communal land.
Expansion of protected areas an important adaptation option being implemented in SA
Increase capacity of research on climate change and sustainable development in South Africa
Science is Fun
Thank you