climate change, agriculture and food security: proven approaches and new investments, policy...
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Climate change, agriculture and food security: proven approaches and new investments, Policy Briefing 29, Brussels, 27 September 2012
Smallholder agriculture under climate change: challenges and outlook
Sonja Vermeulen, Head of ResearchCGIAR Research Program on Climate Change,
Agriculture and Food Security
Impacts
4 degrees by 2100 is likely
To 2090, taking 14 climate models
Four degree rise
Thornton et al. 2010
>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain
Length of growing period (%)
Impacts 1: Long-term trends in temperature and
rainfall
Good news: longer growing se
asons in parts
of Kenya and Tanzania
Bad news: shorte
r growing seasons a
lmost everywhere else
Impacts 2: Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events
Pulwaty 2010
Good news: hurric
anes likely to decrease in fre
quency
Bad news: hurric
anes more intense, category 4 & 5 hurric
anes twice as fr
equent
2050 compared with 2005 in A1B scenario
Cheung et al 2010
Impacts 3: Major transitions in ecosystems
and livelihoods
Good news: increased catches in
high latitudes o
f Pacific
Bad news: huge loss o
f species, c
oral bleaching, widely reduced catches
By 2050, severe childhood stunting up by 23% in central Africa and 62% in South Asia
(uses IFPRI IMPACT model + socio-economic models)
Lloyd et al. 2011 Environmental Health Perspectives
Impacts 4: Poorest at risk
Becoming “climate smart”
Food security
Adaptation
Ecological footprint
“Climate-smart agriculture” means building resilience, balancing trade-offs, suiting the context
US Malawi0
5
10
15
20
25
GHG CO2-eq tonne per capita
Adaptation
Adaptive capacity
Technology
Knowledge & skillsGovernance
& institutions
Income & assets
Access to
information
Infrastructure
Social capital
Key adaptation strategiesIncremental adaptation to
progressive climate change• Closing yield gaps (i.e. sustainable
intensification)• Raising the bar – technologies & policies for
2030sClimate risk management• Technologies (e.g. flood control)• Institutions (e.g. index-based insurance)• Climate information systems (e.g. seasonal
forecasts)Transformative adaptation• Changing production systems• Changing livelihood portfolios
• Example: Climate analogue tool
• Identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality
• These sites are used for cross-site farmer visits, & participatory crop & livestock trials
Adapting to long-term climate trends
Example: Climate services• Met services produce
forecast information downscaled in space & time
• Farmers & met services work together to ensure forecasts meet local needs
Adapting to greater climate
variability
• Relocation of growing areas & processing facilities
• Agricultural diversification, or shifts• Livelihood diversification, or shifts• Migration
To transformational adaptation?
Summary points
Climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture:
• Are more complex than often assumed – and happening faster than often assumed
• Are unevenly distributed geographically• Depend on household and national capacities
and contexts as well as on exposure to climate threats
• Pose major threats to nutrition, welfare, incomes and health among poorer households
Responding with climate-smart agriculture:
• Is foremost about development – addressing smallholder concerns, building assets & resilience
• Adds new actions on climate to sustainable development
• Deals with trade-offs, not only “win-win-wins”• Must be “landscape-smart” too• Will not solve future food security on its own
(need actions on distribution, diets, waste)
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