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MSSRF

S. Bala Ravi

Advisor, MSSRF – Chennai

sbala@mssrf.res.in

Regional Economic Integration, Climate Changeand Food Security Agenda for the Decade 2011-2020 Session: Regional cooperation on climate change

Climate change, Agriculture and

Biodiversity

MSSRF

Biodiversity, its distribution and

role in human well being

Biodiversity and Food Security

Climate change-the extent and

impact

Mitigation efforts and adapting

agriculture to Climate Change

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MSSRF

Biodiversity, its distribution and

role in human well being

Biodiversity and Food Security

Climate change-the extent and

impact

Mitigation efforts and adapting

agriculture to Climate Change

90% Sp. Occur in 10% of land around Equator The 12 Megadiverse Regions have 70 % total biodiversity.

MEGADIVERSE COUNTRIESUNEP Estimate (1995):

NUMBER OF SPECIES 17,50,000Protozoa : 4.6 %Bacteria : 0.2 % Animals Vertibrate : 3.0 % Invertibrates: 73.0 %

Fungi : 4.1 %Plants : 15.4 %

• Australia

• Brazil

• China

• Colombia

• Dem. Rep Congo

• Ecuador

• India

• Indonesia

• Madagaskar

• Malaysia

• Mexico

• Papua New Guinea

• Peru

• Philippines

• South Africa

• United States

• Venezuela

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17+17

Western Ghats & Sri Lanka

Himalaya© Conservation International

5170

15040

139220

15540

1804 10938

SOUTH ASIA

A Center of

Rich biodiversity

and

Agro-biodiversity

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MSSRF

GLOBAL LAND COVER

Forest-30.3%Agri-land-39.6%

Others-30.1%

GLOBAL LAND USE PATTERN

HUMAN POPULATION DENSITY LIVESTOCK POPULATION DENSITY

MSSRF

BIODIVERSITY DISTRIBUTIONFRESH WATER FISH DIVERSITY

90% Sp. occur in 10 % of land around Equator: 12 Mega-biodiversity Regionsaround Equator are home of 70 % of total bio-diversity- IUCN

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MSSRF

49 34

100

31

99

88

100

56

Figures indicate % of crop production accounted by non-native crops

62

DISTRIBUTION DENSITY OF PLANT GENETIC RESOURCES

Direct Consumptive Value

BIODIVERSITY

Food

Fodder

Fuel

Medicine

Clothing

Industrial Raw material

Ca. 80,000 edible spCa.900 Domesticated sp

Ca. 150 now cultivated

Mere 15 sp supply 90%of our food

About 25 000 sp of plants

Ca. 7500 in India

Cultural heritage

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Many species in each year

Now:

One Species in every 500-1000 Years

Before 200 Yrs :

RATE OF SPECIES LOSS

IUCN Red Alert

IUCN-2004 : 15,589 species are threatened

MSSRF

Biodiversity, its distribution and

role in human well being

Biodiversity and Food Security

Climate change-the extent and

impact

Mitigation efforts and adapting

agriculture to Climate Change

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Global Poverty-Biodiversity Map

455.8

139.8

313.2

90.7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2005 2015

IndiaRest of S.Asia

Population in Million

Source:FAO, 2010

Source: World Bank, 2009

388.4

1145.1

17.3

316.2

595.6

East Asia & Pacific

Sub-Saharan AfricaSouth Asia

M. East & N. AfricaL. America & Caribbean

Europe & Central Asia

Number of people living on < $1.25/day (millions)- 2005 World Bank (2009)

Figures in Million: Total 1373.5 MillionPrevious estimate of 984 million @ 1 $/day

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SOUTH ASIA

STATE OF FOOD

SECURITYShare of Global Population and

Cereal Production0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Cere

al P

roduction, M

ln t

23.4

23.6

23.8

24

24.2

24.4

24.6

24.8

25

S.A

sia

Popula

tion, as G

lobal %

World-All cereals, mln t

S.Asia-All cereals, mln t

% Population

Source: FAO, 2009

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2015

2030

2050

Pro

ductio

n, m

illio

n t

0

50

100

150

200

250

Popula

tion, m

illio

n p

ers

ons

World S.Asia Popln. Million

RICE PRODUCTION RISE & POPULATION INCREASE IN S.ASIA

Source: FAO, 2009

CLIMATE INDUCED

SET BACK TO

AGRICULTURAL

PRODUCTION

COULD BE

DISASTROUS

MSSRF

PLANT DIVERSITY AND AGRICULTURE

About 7000 species are estimated to be useful

About 150 Species

are largely used in

farming

About 60 % of calorie and protein supply to humans is provided by just three crops –Rice, Wheat & Maize

Plants Useful in

Agriculture

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MSSRF

Biodiversity, its distribution and

role in human well being

Biodiversity and Food Security

Climate change - The extent and

impact

Mitigation efforts and adapting

agriculture to Climate Change

Schematic Framework of Anthropogenic Drivers, impacts & Responses

Source: IPCC, 2007

Governance HealthLiteracy

Equity

Socio-Economic Development

Technology Population

Production & Socio CulturalConsumption PreferencesPattern

Trade

ECOSYSTEMS WATER RESOURCES

IMPACTS & VULNERABILITY

Food Settlements HumanSecurity & Society health

Emissions

Temperature PrecipitationChange Change

C L I M A T E C H A N G E

Sea level Rise Extreme Events

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Source: IPCC, 2007

POSSIBLE IPMACTS ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC PATHWAYS

WITH GLOBAL RISE IN MEAN TEMPERATURE

Major Predicted Differentiated Impacts in Agriculture & Water Sectors

Expected causation Expected Impacts

Agriculture, forestry & ecosystems Water resources

Most land areas, warmer and fewer cold days and nights,warmer and more frequent hot days &nights

Increased yields in colder regions;

Decreased yields in warmer regions; Increased insect outbreaks

Effects on water resources relying on snow melt;

Some water supplies affected

Warm spells/heat waves

Decreased yields in warmer regions due to heat stress, Increased danger wildfire

Increased water demand; water quality problems, e.g. algal blooms

Heavy precipitationevents. Frequency increases over most areas

Damage to crops; Heavy soil erosion-Degradation, Inability to cultivate land due to flooding and water logging

Quality of surface and ground water adversely affected; Water supply contaminated; Water scarcity reduced

Area affected by drought increases

Land degradation; Lower yields/crop damage & failure; Increased livestock deaths; Increased risk of wildfire

More widespread water stress

Intense tropical cyclone activity increases

Damage to crops; Wind throw (uprooting) of trees; Damage to coral reefs

Power outages causing disruption of public water supply

Increased incidence of extreme high sea level(excludes tsunamis)

Salinisation of irrigation water, estuaries and fresh water systems;Salinity adaptation for food prodn

Decreased fresh water availability due to saltwater intrusion;

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Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India & South Asia

At 1oC mean To rise, about 50% of current high potential,wheat production area may become heat-stressed. Thiswill shorten the growing season & reduce yield;

Yield loss for 1oC rise is predicted to be about 6 m t/year,(value $1.3 b), for 2oC about 24 m t and for 3oC about 43m t;

IFPRI predicts decrease in rain-fed wheat yields in S.Asia by about 44% at 2oC rise by 2050, withoutadaptation measures

Spurt in pests, diseases and weeds mal also cut downsignificant yield,

Grain quality and on nutrient-use efficiency may also beadversely affected

These decreases in yield far out weigh the potentiallybeneficial impacts of elevated CO2 levels on cropproductivity.

FAO Review Team, September 2009

MSSRF

Huge scarcity of Water may demand more water efficient crops for food production,

Prolonged & harsher drought & high floodingmay adversely affect crop production & soilhealth

Heavy soil degradation may turn many of thecurrent food production areas unfit foragriculture

Low lying areas including vast coastal & delta regions would turn saline

Hot growing season will be more common, leading to shortened crop season and decreased yield,

New pests and pathogens may breakout with To rise,

IMPACT OF CC ON AGRICULTURE

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MSSRF

Drastic reduction in livestock population

Good part of global biodiversity and crop genetic resources and ecosystems may degrade

Hunting of more wildlife for food would lead to their faster depletion.

Increased ocean heating and acidity would deplete marine fish production

Decrease in livestock production due to loss of grazing land

Low production of animal waste may make farming more fertilizer-dependant

Poultry may become less viable in most tropicalregions

IMPACT OF CC ON AGRICULTURE

India’s Current Wheat Production & Impact of Climate Change on Production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1950-5

1

1953-5

4

1956-5

7

1959-6

0

1962-6

3

1965-6

6

1968-6

9

1971-7

2

1974-7

5

1977-7

8

1980-8

1

1983-8

4

1986-8

7

1989-9

0

1992-9

3

1995-9

6

1998-9

9

2001-0

2

2004-0

5

2007-0

8

+3oC

+2oC

+1oC

Source: Min. of Agric, Govt of India, 2009

Start of Wheat

Revolution

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To increases could cause significant reductions in yields of rice — thestaple food for over half of the world's population The IRRI research found that rice yields had decreased by >10 % whilethe night temperatures rose by 1.1 º C in the dry season.

India’s Current Rice Production & Impact of Climate Change on Production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1950

-51

1953

-54

1956

-57

1959

-60

1962

-63

1965

-66

1968

-69

1971

-72

1974

-75

1977

-78

1980

-81

1983

-84

1986

-87

1989

-90

1992

-93

1995

-96

1998

-99

2001

-02

2004

-05

2007

-08

RICE PRODUCTION IN INDIA, Million T

+1oC

Source: Min. of Agric, Govt of India, 2009

MSSRF

Biodiversity, its distribution and

role in human well being

Biodiversity and Food Security

Climate change - The extent and

impact

Mitigation efforts and adapting

Agriculture to Climate Change

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MSSRF

The IPCC predicts a To rise between 2oC and 6.4oC by 2100

Mitigation and adaptation are two major strategies to cope with the warming up to 4oC and above.

Some models on CC predicts – Major changes on the planet with 4oC rise.

Some other predict such chages will be there much earlier to 2050

Current global policies and strategies are based on a benchmark of 2o C rise in To

L’Aquila Summit - July 9, 2009 – Agreed to such benchmark

THE STRATEGY FOR ADDRESSING

CLIMATE CHANGE

MSSRF

Enhanced CO2 concentration may promote photosynthesisoffering advantage to crops with C4 photosynthetic pathway

But rise in To and drought may drastically bring down thecrop yield

CC adapted agriculture will require crops and varieties tolerant to higher To, flooding and longer drought, low water use, salinity and better biotic resistance, but still offering high yield

Crops like rice and sugarcane requiring more water maynot be preferable

Traditional crops and varieties, now being neglected may gain preference due to their adaptive value

Genetically engineering conferring superior adaptive traitsto crops may become more preferable.

NEW AGRICULTURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

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Neglected and Underutilized Species (NUS) or The Lost Crops or The Crops of the Future

This group of crops offer high adaptive strength under the predicted CC conditions. They offer valuable genes to mitigate the CC.

More than 500 species

MSSRF

Few Examples of Neglected Underutilized Species

MSSRF

1. Finger millet

(Elucine coracana)

2. Little millet

(Panicum sumatrense)

3. Italian millet

(Setaria italica)

4. Kodo millet

(Paspalum scrobiculatum)

5. Barnyard millet (Echinochloa crusgalli

& colona)

6. Proso millet (Panicum miliaceum)

7. Grain amaranth (Amaranthus cruentus)

Many of these NUS also have high nutritional and nutraceutical value to address hidden hunger and better health

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MSSRF

Strategic Importance to Ex situ Gene Banks(Total NBPGR accessions, as on July 2008 : 1,63,155)

INDIA124 254210235

186118397

41388

33288

118138

41220

Cereals and PseudocerealsMilletsGrain LegumesOilseedsFibre CropsFruits, vegetables and spicesMedicinal & Aromatic Plants and NarcoticsDuplicate Safety SamplesOthers

The National Bureau of Plant Genetic Resources, New Delhi (ICAR) was

established in 1976Conservation as

seeds, cryo-preservation & in vitro repository.

DATABASE: Passport Information; Evaluation Data; DUS information; Information System for PGR Exchange; Global Plan of Action (GPA)

163155

24755

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

India Pakistan

PGR ACCESSIONS IN THE GENE BANK

MSSRF

Ex situ accessions maintained in National and

CGIAR Gene Banks

Source: FAO Report, 1998

Crop National

Collections

CGIAR Centres Total

Cereals 19,71,000 3,62,000 23,33,000

Food Legumes 7,58,000 1,32,000 8,90,000

Vegetables 4,81,000 NA 4,81,000

Forages 3,50,000 58,000 4,08,000

Fruit 2,79,000 NA 2,79,000

Root and Tubers 77,000 24,000 1,01,000

Oil Crops 95,000 NA 95,000

Banana 1,350 2,500 2,500

Others 13,89,000 21,500 14,10,500

Total 54,00,000 600,000 60,00,000

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MSSRF

CLIMATE CHANGE

PAST, PRESENT & FUTURE

CLIMATE CHANGE, SEEDS & FOOD

SECURITY

IMPACT OF IPR ON SEEDS &

FOOD SECURITY UNDER CC

MSSRF

CONCLUSIONSThe biodiversity, which is the basis of human life and

livelihood will be severely threatened and weakened;High biodiversity loss is on card by anthropogenic and

climate change drivers; Poverty and malnutrition in the present biodiversity rich

regions will be accenuatedGood part of the current productive agricultural land is

likely to become unfit for production.

Huge human migration, conflicts and culling are on card; South Asia is predicted to face brunt of these changes;

Food production may demand new varieties and new crops, which are better adapted to changing climate in terms of tolerance to high To , flooding, long drought, and epidemics of new pests and diseases;

National and international gene banks would assume moretactical importance in supplying PGR with adaptive traits

Increased opportunity and need for cooperation among countries to achieve collective food security

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MSSRF

THANKS