Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector:

Impacts and Adaptation Options in the ECA Region

By: Ziad Nakat

Transport Specialist, MNSSD

May 11th, 2009

Introduction

Climate factors directly affect:

the planning, design, construction and maintenance of

transportation infrastructure

the operation and provision of transportation services

The demand for transportation and modal choice.

There has been relatively little research on Climate

change adaptation in the Transport sector

While Adaptation is not likely to significantly alter

the sector, its costs might be substantial given its

size and the issues at stake

Projected Change in Mean Temperature, 2030-2049

Projected Change in Daily Rainfall Intensity, 2030 2049

Impact of Climate Change on Transport Infrastructure

Hazard Impact on Transport Infrastructure Country/Region

Sea level rise &

Storm Surge

- Flooding of costal land infrastructure

- Damage to port infrastructure

- Baltic

- Black Sea

-

Higher recurrence of

extreme events

(wind and storms)

- Greater likelihood of infrastructure

failures

- Increased threat to long span bridges

stability

- Damage to cranes, terminal facilities, and

railways overhead line

- Central Europe

- Baltic

- Black Sea

Increased

Precipitation

intensity

- Flooding of roads, railways, and Tunnels

- Slope failures and landslides (Rail, Road)

- Washout of gravel and earth roads

- All of ECA

Extreme heat - Increased pavement deterioration,

softening, cracking, rutting, and bleeding

- Thermal expansion of bridge joints

- Increased forest fires affecting land

infrastructure

- Rail track deformation and buckling

- Central Asia

- South East Europe

- Caucasus

- Turkey

- Central Europe

Changes in

precipitation pattern

(averages)

- Increased drought will reduce the

navigability of Inland Waterways

- Lower water table will affect base

stability and results in settlement of

infrastructure

- South East Europe

- Caucasus

- Turkey

Permafrost

Degradation

- Base stability of most infrastructure is

affected resulting in substantial failures

- Eastern and

Northern Russia

Impact of Climate change on Transport Operations

Hazard Impact on Transport Operations Country/Region

Higher recurrence of

extreme events

(wind and storms)

- Disruptions of transport operations for all

modes of traffic

- Delays and cancelation of flights, and

unreliable air travel service

- Reduced travel speed

- Central Europe

- Baltic

- Black Sea

Increased

precipitation

intensity

- Increased risks from accidents,

particularly on roads

- Flooding of railways and roads

- Increased travel costs due to increased

vehicle failure and decreased speeds

- All of ECA

Overall warming

- Reduced de-icing costs for all vehicles

- Longer shipping seasons in Arctic

- Increased mobility and demand

- Longer construction season

- Most of ECA

Sea level rise &

Storm Surge

- Disruptions to port operations

- Flooding of costal infrastructure

- Baltic

- Black Sea

-

Extreme heat - Increased ventilation and safety concerns

in Tunnels

- Additional costs due to refrigeration of

transported goods

- Reduced mobility

- Central Asia

- South East Europe

- Caucasus

- Turkey

Impact on Transportation Demand

There is little research on this topic

Transportation demand is not likely to be directly

impacted by adaptation

Adaptation might affect Transportation demand

through its impact on other sectors

Impact on Transport Modal Shares?

=> Mitigation to impact transport Demand while

Adaptation to impact transport Supply

Some Benefits

Longer construction seasons, improved

efficiencies, and reduced costs

Lower winter maintenance costs

Longer navigation seasons on some Inland

Waterways and Seas

Possible Long term changes in navigation

routes? (Arctic/Northern Passage)

Sample Adaptation Challenges in Transport

With increased precipitation intensity, keep

repairing a gravel/earth road or pave it?

Where to build my port, and how to dimension it?

Should I build a larger breakwater to protect city,

and who will pay for it?

Will I have more severe snow storms and how to

prepare/manage transport operations and services?

What type of communication/institutions needed?

Where will the money come from?

Adaptation Strategy

Approaching the Challenge

Strategy function of timeframe of planned activity, existing

institutions, and available resources

CC Adaptation an incremental challenge

Bottom up approach to decision making:

Given available resources, how to best design my system? =>

less dependency on climate models

Adaptation Options

Wait & See: For short lived activities & scarce resources

No regret: particularly for maintenance & drainage

Win-Win: Mitigation & Adaptation

Adaptation Strategy‘Decision’ tools

System approach => Robustness, Reliability and Redundancy

Probabilistic approach to decision making: (vulnerability

assessment, prioritization of interventions, fail safe concept)

Policy and Institutions

Harmonize Mitigation & Adaptation policies

Strengthen Institutional capacity & cooperation within a

System- Not necessarily a sector

Institutions function of resources and challenges

Adaptation Strategy

Funding and insurance

Strengthen contingency planning & emergency funds

Ensure Private sector properly insured

‘Technical’ Solutions

Transport Operations and Safety => weather forecasting

Improve design criteria for long lived infrastructure (how?)

Improve land use planning

Collect data on climate variables, costs, and report failures

Use of construction techniques and new materials

Use sensors and ITS for monitoring

World Bank Role

Help design and implement adaptation programs

Continue emphasis on maintenance

Strengthen Institutional capacity and cooperation

Strengthen regional cooperation

Strengthen contingency planning-emergency funds

Watch for Transparency Issues

Assist in knowledge dissemination

Promote innovative solutions and techniques

=> Important Bank additionality to counterparts

How to Build/Integrate Adaptation in

Existing Tools

Asset management: include ‘climate proofing’,

drainage, slope stability

Performance based contracts: More attention to

climate, particularly for winter maintenance

Safety & Operations: Consider a larger WB role

Institutional: Reinforce Coordination, particularly

during climate related emergency

PPP: Further attention to climate related risks and

their allocation, as well as insurance

Conclusions

Climate Change impacts transport infrastructure, services,

and demand

Impacts on the sector result from:

Extreme events (‘tail of the distribution’) => related to the

disaster mitigation agenda

Recurrence of high frequency low impact events =>

Particularly important from sectors point of view as it

results in gradual attrition of resources, with rare

compensations from Budget

Change in Mean variables => Chronic trends

Conclusions Climate Change Adaptation an incremental challenge

However the costs can be very large given the size of

the sector

Relation of Transport & other sectors

Part of the Problem: Roads/Railways can channel flood

water into cities/areas

But mostly part of the solution:

Transport essential for preventive measures (infrastructure,

emergency routes…)

Transport essential for post-crisis recovery (access, channeling

of relief/aid, evacuation…)

Conclusions

Climate change adaptation measures and policies

shall address system issues

Thinking should shift partly from optimal/efficiency

to robustness

World Bank has an important role to play, and

significant value to add

Adaptation a ‘new business line’?

Adaptation directly affects counterparts assets

Adaptation mostly affects the supply side