climate change adaptation – guidance to vulnerability ... · 10/7/2017 · climate change...

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ISO 14091:2020

ISO TC 207/SC 7/WG 11

Secretariat: DIN

Climate Change Adaptation – guidance to Vulnerability

Assessment

Pre-WD stage

Warning for WDs and CDs

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change without notice and may not be referred to as an International Standard.

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which they are aware and to provide supporting documentation.

ISO 14091:2020 (pre-WD)

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ISO 14091:2020 (pre-WD)

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Contents

Foreword .......................................................................................................................................................................... v

Introduction.................................................................................................................................................................... vi

1 Scope .................................................................................................................................................................... 1

2 Normative references .................................................................................................................................... 1

3 Terms and definitions.................................................................................................................................... 1

4 Principles: The conceptual framework of vulnerability assessments ......................................... 5

4.1 What is climate change vulnerability? ..................................................................................................... 5

4.2 How is vulnerability assessed? ................................................................................................................... 6

4.2.1 General ................................................................................................................................................................ 6

4.2.2 The normative aspects of a vulnerability assessment ....................................................................... 6

4.2.3 Uses and parts of vulnerability assessments ........................................................................................ 6

5 Preparing a vulnerability assessment ..................................................................................................... 7

5.1 Prepare the vulnerability assessment ..................................................................................................... 7

5.1.1 Understand the context of the vulnerability assessment ................................................................. 7

5.1.2 Identify purposes and expected outcomes ............................................................................................ 8

5.1.3 Involve decision-makers in the process .................................................................................................. 8

5.1.4 Determine the scope and the methodology of the vulnerability assessment............................ 9

5.1.5 Determine climate impacts, adaptive capacities and vulnerabilities of the system in

question ........................................................................................................................................................... 10

5.1.6 Prepare an execution plan ........................................................................................................................ 10

5.2 Develop impact chains ................................................................................................................................ 10

5.2.1 Introduction and general recommendations ..................................................................................... 10

5.2.2 Work with the impact chains ................................................................................................................... 11

5.3 Identify indicators ........................................................................................................................................ 13

5.3.1 General ............................................................................................................................................................. 13

5.3.2 Select indicators ............................................................................................................................................ 14

5.3.3 Create a list of indicators ........................................................................................................................... 14

6 Executing a vulnerability assessment ................................................................................................... 14

6.1 Data acquisition and management ........................................................................................................ 14

6.1.1 Gather data ..................................................................................................................................................... 14

6.1.2 Evaluate data quality and results ........................................................................................................... 15

6.1.3 Data management ........................................................................................................................................ 16

6.2 Normalize and aggregate indicators .................................................................................................... 16

6.2.1 General ............................................................................................................................................................. 16

6.2.2 Determine the scale of measurement ................................................................................................... 16

6.2.3 Normalize indicator values ....................................................................................................................... 16

6.2.4 Weight and aggregate indicators ............................................................................................................ 17

6.3 Aggregate vulnerability components to vulnerability .................................................................... 17

6.3.1 Aggregate indicators to vulnerability components ......................................................................... 17

6.3.2 Aggregate climate stimuli, exposure and sensitivity to climate impact ................................... 18

6.3.3 Aggregate climate impact and adaptive capacity into vulnerability where climatic

and non-climatic threats will be addressed........................................................................................ 18

6.3.4 Aggregate several sub-vulnerabilities into an overall vulnerability ......................................... 18

6.4 Evaluate the results ..................................................................................................................................... 19

6.5 Ensure quality and assess the confidence level................................................................................. 19

6.5.1 General ............................................................................................................................................................. 19

6.5.2 Transparency ................................................................................................................................................. 19

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6.5.3 Legitimation ................................................................................................................................................... 20

6.5.4 Robustness ...................................................................................................................................................... 20

6.5.5 Quality .............................................................................................................................................................. 21

6.6 Analyse cross-sectoral interdependencies and hot spots ............................................................. 21

6.6.1 Identify interdependencies between sectors ..................................................................................... 21

7 Report a vulnerability assessment ........................................................................................................ 22

7.1 Prepare a vulnerability assessment report ........................................................................................ 22

7.2 Describe the vulnerability assessment ................................................................................................ 22

7.3 Illustrate findings ......................................................................................................................................... 23

7.4 Report findings to allow for appropriate adaptation planning ................................................... 23

Annex 1 (informative) .................................................................................................................................................. 1

Annex 2 (informative) ................................................................................................................................................. 2



Bibliography .................................................................................................................................................................... 6

ISO 14091:2020 (pre-WD)

© ISO #### – All rights reserved v

Foreword

ISO (the International Organization for Standardization) is a worldwide federation of national

standards bodies (ISO member bodies). The work of preparing International Standards is normally

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The main changes compared to the previous edition are as follows:

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ISO 14091:2020 (pre-WD)

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Introduction

Even before the establishment of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, vulnerability assessments

have increasingly been used for the identification of climate change hotspots and to recognise needs for

adaptation actions and development planning at local, national and regional levels.

assessments gained particular significance in the context of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

process. This process was established in 2010 as part of the UNFCCC Cancun Adaptation Framework to

complement existing short-term national adaptation programs of action (NAPAs). It aimed originally at

reducing the vulnerability of developing countries, especially the least developed countries (LDCs).

Adaptation is also an important issue of the Paris Agreement 2015. Therefore, dealing more

comprehensively and consistently with climate change impacts is a global challenge, both for

developing and developed countries. The need for vulnerability assessments will become more and

more important in the coming years and addressing potential harm imposed by climate change is

gaining relevance for all kind of organizations.

Adding to the legal level, providing the means to gain explicit and comprehensive knowledge about

vulnerability is a prerequisite for providing a arious works exist about

applying and describing vulnerability assessments in different extents of geographical areas, addressing

different types of hazards and climatic trends, and different types of climate-changed induced impacts

on rural or urban structures. Many cities, regions and countries just start considering or really initiating

vulnerability assessments, but still wonder how to proceed. Therefore a standardized approach to

vulnerability assessments is needed covering a broad range of sectors and topics (e.g. water sector,

agriculture, fisheries, different ecosystems) as well as different spatial levels (community, subnational,

and national) and time horizons (e.g. current vulnerability or vulnerability in the medium to long term).

The standardized approach is particularly concerned with providing readily understandable, user-

friendly guidance in the development and implementation of vulnerability assessments. It

acknowledges the specific conditions which prevail in developing countries as well as in developed

countries – requirements as well as constraints.

This proposed standardized approach is based on:

- a cross-

Network’, as basis for the resulting first nation-wide vulnerability assessment for Germany (see

Buth et al 2015 and http://www.netzwerk-vulnerabilitaet.de/) and a guideline for making this

method available to third parties (https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/publikationen/

guidelines-for-climate-impact-vulnerability), and

- a guideline adopting the German approach by the German International Cooperation Agency

(GIZ) to support governmental and nongovernmental organizations worldwide (see Fritzsche et

The concepts and definitions of the national approach adopted by the German Government are based on

the terminology of the IPCC IPCC’s follow-up report AR5 changed the

vulnerability-related concepts by giving more prominence to the notion of risk. The IPCC AR5 definition

links vulnerability assessments to approaches such as risk-based analysis and assessments as applied in

flood protection, critical infrastructure, e.g. by re-insurances. It is envisaged that the standard will take

into account these new AR5-based concepts and will therefore fit in with risk-based approaches and

vice versa.

ISO 14091:2020 (pre-WD)

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Climate Change Adaptation – guidance to Vulnerability

Assessment

Scope 1

This International Standard provides a basic guidance for conducting a vulnerability assessment ( )

regarding the impacts of climate change. The document gives help to develop and implement a sound

. The standard is targeted at all kind of organizations to support their efforts in enhancing climate

change adaption planning and can be used by any planning entity.

The outcome of the standard aims to provide a sound assessment of vulnerability to climate change

giving a solid basis for:

- improving adaptation planning;

- enhancing the development of adaptation measures;

- supporting monitoring and evaluation of adaptation.

ulnerability assessments are used to identify climate change impact hotspots and to provide input for

adaptation and development planning at all levels (local, national and regional) and all sectors. This

aims especially at reducing the vulnerability by addressing medium- and long term adaptation needs.

This standard can be used for the assessment of present and the future climate impacts and

vulnerability.

Normative references 2

There are no normative references in this document.

Terms and definitions 3

For the purposes of this document, the following terms and definitions apply.

3.1

adaptive capacity

ability of systems, institutions, humans, and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, to take

advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences

[SOURCE: Fifth Assessment Report (AR5): Climate Change 2014, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change, 20 , modified]

3.2

climate

average weather or statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities

over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years

Note 1 to entry: The classical period for averaging these variables is 30 years, as defined by the World

Meteorological Organization.

Note 2 to entry: The relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature,

precipitation, and wind.

[SOURCE: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): Climate Change 2007, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change, 2007, modified - Note 1 and 2 to entry have been added.]

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3.3

climate change

change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the

mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades

or longer

Note 1 to entry: Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as

modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the

composition of the atmosphere or in land use.


Change, 2 - Note 1 to entry has been added.]

3.4

climate change adaptation

process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects

Note 1 to entry: In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial

opportunities.

Note 2 to entry: In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected

climate and its effects.


Change - Note 1 and 2 to entry have been added.]

3.5

climate stimuli (climate hazard)

potential occurrence of climate related physical events or trends – e.g. average precipitation, number of

days with heavy rainfall, or rainfall amounts – that affect lives and health as well as property,

infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and environmental resources


Change here the term climate hazard is used, modified]

3.6

(climate) impacts

effects of both extreme and slow onset climate events on natural and human systems

Note 1 to entry: Impacts generally refer to effects on lives, livelihoods, health, ecosystems, economies,

societies, cultures, services, and infrastructure due to the interaction of climate stimuli occurring within

a specific time period and the sensitivity of an exposed society or system.

Note 2 to entry: Depending on the consideration of adaptation, one can distinguish between potential

impacts and residual impacts:

–Potential impact: all impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without considering

adaptation.

–Residual impacts: the impacts of climate change that would occur after adaptation


Change ; Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): Climate Change 2007, Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change, 2007, modified - Note 1 and 2 to entry have been added.]

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3.7

climate projection

simulated response of the climate system to a scenario of future emission or concentration of

greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, generally derived using climate models

Note 1 to entry: Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions in order to emphasize

that climate projections depend upon the emission/concentration/radiative forcing scenario used,

which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological

developments that may or may not be realized.


Change , modified - Note 1 to entry has been added.]

3.8

climate scenario

plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set

of climatological relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential

consequences of anthropogenic climate change, often serving as input to impact models


Change ]

3.9

exposure

presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental functions, services, and

resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could be

affected

Note 1 to entry: Exposure can change over time, for example as a result of land use change.


Change , modified - Note 1 to entry has been added.]

3.10

indicator

quantitative, qualitative or binary variable that can be measured or described, in response to a defined

criterion

[SOURCE: ISO 13065:2015(en), 3.27.]

3.11

national adaptation plan

NAP

process that enables Parties to formulate and implement national adaptation plans (NAPs) as a means

of identifying medium- and long-term adaptation needs and developing and implementing strategies

and programmes to address those needs

Note 1 to entry: It is a continuous, progressive and iterative process which follows a country-driven,

gender-sensitive, participatory and fully transparent approach.

[SOURCE: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2017, modified - Note 1 to entry

has been added]

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3.12

national adaptation programmes of action

NAPAs

programmes that provide a process for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to identify priority activities

that respond to their urgent and immediate needs to adapt to climate change – those for which further

delay would increase vulnerability and/or costs at a later stage

[SOURCE: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2017, modified]

3.13

organization

person or group of people that has its own functions with responsibilities, authorities and relationships

to achieve its objectives

Note 1 to entry: The concept of organization includes, but is not limited to, sole-trader, company,

corporation, firm, enterprise, authority, partnership, association, charity or institution, or part or

combination thereof, whether incorporated or not, public or private.

, modified - Note 1 to entry has been added.]

3.14

climate risk

potential of negative impacts of climate change that reflects the interaction among vulnerability,

exposure, and hazard

Note 1 to entry: Climate risk can be reduced by enhancing the adaptive capacity, strengthening

resilience of the ecology, society and economy.


Change, 2007, modified - Note 1 to entry has been added.]

3.15

sensitivity

degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate stimuli and due to its

socioeconomic and biophysical properties

Note 1 to entry: The effect may be direct (for example, a change in crop yield in response to a change in

the mean, range, or variability of temperature) or indirect (for example, damages caused by an increase

in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise).



3.16

vulnerability

degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate stimuli,

including climate variability and extremes

Note 1 to entry:

which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity



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Principles: The conceptual framework of vulnerability assessments 4

What is climate change vulnerability? 4.1

The concept of ‘climate change vulnerability’ helps to better understand the cause-effect relationships

between climate change and its impact on people and societies, economic sectors and socio-ecological

systems. However, the term “vulnerability” is applied in different contexts and with various meanings.

The conceptual basis of this International Standard covers the following components of vulnerability:

The climate stimuli (or climate hazard), the climate change exposure and the sensitivity to determine

(potential) climate

impact also depends on the system’s adaptive capacity. In the light of this guidance the following five

factors can be regarded as the main components for a vulnerability assessment.

a) the climate stimuli;

b) the exposure of the system to climate stimuli;

c) the sensitivity of the system to climate stimuli;

d) subsequent (potential) climate impacts;

e) the capacity of the system to prepare for and to adapt to the (potential) climate impact.

Figure 1 - used in this standard1

Available vulnerability concepts do currently not provide complete information on how exactly the function among the components of vulnerability can be attained. Basically, however, the following calculation can be made: A (potential, thereby future) climate impact results from the climate stimuli, which influences an exposed system and the sensitivity of the system to the climate stimuli. The vulnerability results from the climate impact combined with the adaptive capacity of the system. The vulnerability concept used takes explicit account of the spatial exposure important for the assessment of certain climate impacts.

For the understanding of vulnerability in this standard, a concept was developed that touches upon the vulnerability concept of the IPCC 20 (see Figure 1 and Annex B ). In 2007 the

1 Compatible with the IPCC AR risk concept, based on the current discussion in Germany (Buth et al.

2017). IPCC may change it further in future report.

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and variation to which a system – ecosystem, economic or social system – is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. In the IPCC AR5 methodological framework, instead of vulnerability, the risk of climate change impacts is the end factor being assessed. In order to work in accordance with both approaches, it helps to recognize that a climate impact is comparable to a risk without considering additional adaptation. This additional adaptation is represented by the adaptive capacity, the possibilities of future adaptation actions or measures. Therefore, the final result can be named vulnerability (as in IPCC 2007) or risk with additional adaptation, if considering the new risk approach

.

Due to its forecasted effects over the mid- to long-term, vulnerability to climate change is generally assessed for a future period of time. This is also because the term adaptive capacity refers to future conditions, since it needs time to implement actions. However, other components (climate stimuli, exposure, sensitivity and climate impact) can also be assessed both present times. In those cases in which a vulnerability assessment focusing on the present time might me more suitable (for example in cases where immediate adaptation actions are needed), then only those capacities already existing to prepare for, and cope with, climate impacts should be considered.

How is vulnerability assessed? 4.2

General 4.2.1

components and factors in order to describe a system´s susceptibility to climate stimuli. It is therefore not a measurable characteristic of a system, such as temperature, precipitation or agricultural production. As a term, ‘assessing’ vulnerability is therefore more suitable than ‘measuring’ vulnerability.

A vulnerability assessment can be carried out for individual fields of action or sectors. If several fields of action are analysed comparatively, one usually speaks of a cross-sectoral assessment.

The normative aspects of a vulnerability assessment 4.2.2

. Physical, but also economic and social factors play a role. Not all of these can always be quantified. The great number of factors that determine the climate impacts on a system and its adaptive capacity lead to uncertainties, which increase the more complex the system under consideration is. All these parts do not only include decisions that are objectively justifiable, but also those that need to be taken on a normative, i.e. value-based basis.

Wherever justifications based on expertise reach their limits, normative decisions must be taken. Evaluations particularly require normative settlements. For example, there are no objectively verifiable criteria for many climate impacts, such as thresholds or the like, which allow for an expert-objective weighting. In these cases, it is necessary to define one’s own evaluation criteria that orient themselves using specifications such as legislation, planning bases or resolutions. It is therefore important for the interpretation of the results to be clearly distinguished: On the one hand, there are normative decisions and evaluations, i.e. the level of values. On the other hand, this contrasts with the level of objectivity, which includes scientifically determinable facts and expert decisions. Only by dealing transparently with all normative processes, results can be externally reproduced.

Uses and parts of vulnerability assessments 4.2.3

ulnerability assessments fulfil diverse purposes depending on the information needs of organisations, and on the challenges caused by climate change:

- Rising Awareness: ulnerability assessments help increase awareness of climate change among policy and decision makers as well as communities and other stakeholders;

ISO 14091:2020 (pre-WD)


- Identification of current and potential vulnerability hotspots ulnerability assessments allow to better understanding the factors driving the vulnerability of a particular climate change hotspot, and to prioritise climate change vulnerability of different geographical areas or organizations;

- Identification of entry points for adaptation intervention: By creating information on driving factors, vulnerability assessments serve as a basis for identifying adaptation measures;

- Tracking of changes in vulnerability and monitoring & evaluation of adaptation: Carrying out vulnerability assessments regularly can help to track changes in climate change vulnerability over time and generate additional knowledge on the effectiveness of adaptation.

Figure 2 – Parts of a vulnerability assessment with dependency on technical analysis and normative decisions

Climate impact evaluations, which consist of an analysis and evaluation of the results of climate and climate impact research, are always a part of vulnerability assessments, but they often are carried out on their own:

- Climate and climate impact research generates knowledge, help to understand driving factors and shows ranges as well as possibilities for action. As the work of the IPCC has shown, it is also suited to creating awareness of the necessity for adaptation, and thus to build pressure to act;

- A climate impact evaluation can strengthen this. Beyond that, it makes it possible to identify hot spots and needs for action when the adaptive capacity of the affected systems does not differ very much or when it is irrelevant to decision-making;

- The adaptive capacity evaluation also increases knowledge of linkages. This can lead to improved options for action that are directed towards meeting adaptation needs, or to identify hot spots for external support;

- Insofar as vulnerability evaluation connects the evaluation of needs for action and potentials for adaptation, they can show where systems are especially affected and where they require particular support in adaptation. In this way, they contribute to identifying hot spots and serve to derive adaptation measures.

The more intensively the actors who decide on the implementation of climate adaptation measures are already involved in the different assessment parts, the more likely they are to address the identified climate impacts and transform the need for action into concrete measures.

Preparing a vulnerability assessment 5

Prepare the vulnerability assessment 5.1

Understand the context of the vulnerability assessment 5.1.1

The very first step in the preparation of a vulnerability assessment is the definition of the context of the

assessment. Each vulnerability assessment takes place in a unique setting; therefore effective

preparation builds a basis for achieving the objectives of the assessment, for defining its scope and for

calculating the balance between available resources and intended outputs. The following key elements

should be kept in mind when preparing a vulnerability assessment:

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- Processes: Ongoing or planned processes and activities related to adaptation or in line with the

vulnerability assessment should be considered;

- Knowledge: Available knowledge around climate change and its impacts and existing

vulnerability and impact assessment should be taken into account;

- Institutions: Institutions that could be involved or have specific interest in the vulnerability

assessment should be determined;

- Resources: Availability of financial, human and technical resources and information/ data should

be planned in forehand;

- External developments: External factors that could potentially influence the system under

review should be involved in the assessment (e.g. demographic changes, land use changes, or

the influence of global developments).

Identify purposes and expected outcomes 5.1.2

In general, it is a particular need or information gap that drives the decision to conduct a vulnerability assessment. It shall therefore be clearly defined at the beginning of the process what the specific purpose and intended output of the assessment will be. This helps to manage the expectations of participating institutions and stakeholders and to choose the appropriate methodological approach for the assessment.

The following aspects should be considered when defining the overall objectives of the vulnerability assessment:

- Determine the purpose of the vulnerability assessment and the processes that the vulnerability assessment will support or feed into (e.g. ongoing activities in the field of adaptation);

- Identify what the information gap is and what the intended output of the vulnerability assessment will be (e.g. identification of climate change hotpots or specific vulnerabilities to be reduced with suitable adaptation measures);

- Define the further use of the knowledge and results that will be generated (e.g. input into on-going adaptation efforts, planning concrete adaptation measures at the local level);

- Clarify the expected outputs of the vulnerability assessment (map with vulnerability hotspots, ranking of vulnerable sectors, narrative analysis of vulnerability and its determining factors);

- Integrate the relevant experts, stakeholders and institutions, which are needed for executing the assessment, undertake normative assessments and supporting the implementation of the results in adaptation decisions;

- Inform the target audience about the vulnerability assessment, its process and its expected results early (e.g. ministries and national agencies, decision makers at different administrative levels, local communities).

Involve decision-makers in the process 5.1.3

When conducting vulnerability assessments and climate impact assessments, it is recommended to involve decision-makers in the working, and especially in the evaluation and decision phases, because

- there are normative decisions to be made, and - involvement leads the addressees to more strongly identify with the assessment and to derive

actions from it.

When undertaking collaboration between the working level and the decision-making level, there should be a transparent division of tasks for all parties. It is the task of the work level to prepare the different evaluative steps of the assessment, to elaborate the results and to assess them scientifically. The decision-making level decides on the basic procedure and, following the assessment, evaluates the results normatively, carries out quality control and, if necessary, adds further external competences. This approach requires continuous communication, for example through regular meetings to coordinate central assessment steps and results, providing human capacity and possibly political support. In addition to the substantive discussions, workshops with external experts can be organised

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to bring in further know-how for the assessment. It is also possible to focus the process of participation more scientifically and to strengthen the overall expertise by involving a larger number of researchers who contribute current research results.

Determine the scope and the methodology of the vulnerability assessment 5.1.4

After the exploration of the context in which the vulnerability assessment will be conducted, the incorporation of decision-makers in the process and the identification of the overall purpose and outcomes, the next step should be the definition of the scope of the vulnerability assessment. The following four aspects should be taken into account:

a) Thematic focus of the assessment - Narrow or wide focus: e.g. a certain sector or application field, such as wetland ecosystems,

urban development, or several sectors at the national level etc; - Consideration of particular social groups: e.g. rural communities, most vulnerable groups,

women; - Assessment focus on either just one subject, or on combined subjects: e.g. vulnerability of

agricultural production affecting crops and livestock.

b) Geographical scope of the assessment - Unit of the system under review: specific community, district/province or country, or a

single spatial unit (e.g. one district) or comparing areas (e.g. two or more districts); - Level of the assessment: specific systems such as a clearly definable ecosystem (e.g. a river

delta or a protected natural area); - Resolution of the assessment: decision on spatial scale might be influenced by the

availability of data relevant to the assessment (e.g. national or country level with resolution 10*10 km, subnational level (city or community)).

c) Time period of the assessment

- Climate change impacts under current and future climate conditions; - near future or distant future).

d) Methodology of the assessment

- Quantitative method or top-down approach (measuring, statistical surveys, modelling); - Qualitative method or bottom-up approach (narrative interviews etc.); - Mix of qualitative and quantitative methods.

5.1.4.1 Set the time period of the assessment

The observation periods for possible climate changes should, as a rule, be at least 30 years, i.e. the length of the climate normal period defined by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) (Trewin 2007). It is a good idea to consider at least three periods: a reference period of the recent past (e.g. based on the climate WMO reference period, currently - future (e.g. the next 3 decades) and one distant future (e.g. in 70-100 years). In addition, it may be useful to include the present (for example, the climatic period of the last 3 decades) in order to examine the impact of climate variability and climate extremes on the status quo of the system.

The near future (the next 15 to 30 years) is often more decisive for political decision-making than the distant future often used in climate analyses, up to 80-100 years. For individual sectors and systems that require very long periods of time to adapt, e.g. forest ecosystems, using the distant future is essential. If vulnerability assessments are re-executed or updated at a later stage, the same period should be maintained as a reference period, while the present and the near futures should be updated in ten-year increments.

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Determine climate impacts, adaptive capacities and vulnerabilities of the system in 5.1.5

question

It is advisable to start with existing knowledge on key climate impacts and vulnerabilities related to the

subject and existing adaptive potentials of the system. This knowledge might come from previous

studies or already existing literature.

Existing information and sources on climate change, impacts and adaptive capacities which might be

useful for the preparation

- IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DCC): climate, socio-economic and environmental data (past and

future scenarios): http://www.ipcc-data.org/,

- Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP): the World Bank s central information hub on

climate change: http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm.,

- UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: a database of observed and modelled climate data for

61 developing countries: http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/climate/projects/undp-cp/,

- Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC): part of NASA s Earth Observing System,

- Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSML): observed sea level data from the global network

of tide gauges: http://www.psmsl.org/,

- ci:grasp: web-based climate information service which supports decision makers in developing

and emerging countries in adaptation planning: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~wrobel/ci_2/,

- Climate Information Portal (CIP): The University of Cape Town´s climate information platform:

http://cip.csag.uct.ac.za/webclient2/app/,

- Data and Information System (EOSDIS), focussing on human interactions in the environment:

http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/.

Prepare an execution plan 5.1.6

It is recommended to develop a concrete work plan for executing the vulnerability assessment after having defined the above-mentioned steps. The three following aspects should be covered in the execution plan:

- Specific tasks: What needs to be done? - Responsibilities: Who will be doing what? - Time planning: What is going to happen when?

In order to define tasks, responsibilities and resources of the different partners, participating stakeholders and institutions should be involved when developing the execution plan.

Develop impact chains 5.2

Introduction and general recommendations 5.2.1

An impact chain is an analytical tool that helps to better understand, visualize, systemize and prioritize

those factors that drive vulnerability in the system under review.

Impact chains serve as a logical basis for the overall vulnerability assessment, as seen in Figure 3. They

accentuate which climate stimuli influence with possible climate impacts. They thus represent the basic

structure for the vulnerability assessment. They also serve as important communication tools for

arranging with the impacted actors what is to be analysed and which climate and socioeconomic or

biophysical parameters should play a role. In this way, they facilitate the derivation of targeted

adaptation measures in the ensuing creation of the vulnerability assessment.

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A sound understanding of the system and expert knowledge are indispensable for the successful

development of impact chains Therefore, two aspects are recommended to be considered for the

development of the impact chains:

- It is recommended to prepare impact chains with the help of experts (e.g. scientists, association

representative, insurances, local authorities) to review known impacts and cause-and-effect

relationships;

- The use of participatory methods such as workshops involving key institutions and experts as

well as representatives of affected sectors or communities is highly recommended. This will

broaden knowledge, create a common concept and encourage ownership. Several activities such

as brainstorming on additional impacts, prioritization of impacts and drafting of impact chains

should therefore be made in a participative way.

Work with the impact chains 5.2.2

5.2.2.1 Identify relevant impacts

Identifying relevant climate impacts is the most crucial step when developing an impact chain. When

assessing several topics or sectors, at first all potential climate impacts should be collected from which

those impacts have to be selected and addressed separately, which are considered as relevant for the

vulnerability assessment.

It is recommended to develop on the working level simple impact chains for all climate impacts and

building on existing (literature) knowledge. This should be done independently of whether these

impacts can be quantitatively assessed or not. If more possible impacts of climate change were

identified than could be analysed within the framework of the assessment, then the decision-making

level should select those climate impacts which appear particularly relevant in the respective

assessment and for their purposes. This has the advantage that anticipated and/or regional/local

sensitivities can be considered in the assessment, which ultimately increases the acceptance of the

results. The more concrete the purpose has been defined, the more concrete selection criteria can be

identified.

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Figure 3 – Example of impact chain [SOURCE: translated into English from Klimawirkungsketten, eurac

research et al., 2016.]2

5.2.2.2 Determine climate stimuli, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity factors

When designing impact chains, each relevant climate impact must be linked to its climatic causes, the climate stimuli. Also the other vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity which influence the vulnerability of the affected system have to be identified. Therefore for each component at least one relevant factor, for example precipitation has to be determined. Then indicators which can be quantitatively or qualitatively estimated are attributed to the factors, for example mean daily precipitation as one climate stimuli factor (see 6.3).

Climate stimuli:

Climate stimuli usually follow a sequence which leads from readily measurable direct factors, such as temperature and precipitation, to more complex, indirect factors such as evapotranspiration, sea level rise or runoff. For determining climate stimuli factors within the impact chain context, it is recommended to define the potential impact as a starting point and to follow a bottom-up direction identifying related intermediate impacts and lastly the climate stimuli.

Exposure:

2 Impact chain description: The upper row represents the different climate impacts and its related climate stimuli.

The bigger central field shows all climate impacts and interconnections between them. On the upper left side the

sensitivities of the different components can be found. And in the lower left corner the spatial characteristics of

exposed elements are enumerated.

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Exposure defines the system exposed to the climate change impacts and its spatial character. Factors can be identified by answering the following questions: “what or who is exposed to the climate stimuli and the related impacts?”, and “which spatial factors contribute to the degree of exposure?”

Sensitivity:

Sensitivity factors can be approached like exposure factors. The guiding question is: what are the characteristics/ existing attributes of the system which make it susceptible to adverse effects of the changing climate stimuli(s) identified in the previous step? The task is to identify attributes or properties that influence the extent of the impacts. Sensitivity includes not just the physical environment but also socio-economic and demographic components.

Adaptive capacities:

After putting together exposure and sensitivity factors, adaptive capacities of the organization(s) to address the system are to be identified. The key question for this step is: “which capacities and resources of, and within, the system will allow addressing climate change impacts?” In order to structure the impact chain, four dimensions of adaptive capacity will be captured:

- Knowledge: is there knowledge or expertise inside or outside the organization which might support adaptation?

- Technology: are there technical options available and affordable which could enhance adaptive capacity?

- Institutions: how does the institutional environment contribute to adaptive capacity? - Stakeholders: how might be their reaction on climate change adaptation measures? - Economy: which, economic and financial resources are available for enhancing adaptive capacity

or implementing adaption measures?

All adaptive capacity factors identified will explicitly contribute to reducing vulnerability.

5.2.2.3 Compile adaptation measures (optional)

Impact chains can also bring forward the selection of suitable adaptation measures. This can be achieved through a brainstorming session with relevant stakeholders involved in the process. Possible entry points for the identification of adaptation options in the impact chain should be sensitivity and adaptive capacities. This can be facilitated by questions such as: “what is the best way to tackle sensitivity factors and enhance adaptive capacities to moderate impact (i.e. formulating an adaptation hypothesis)?” Results may help to further foster the process of adaptation planning.

Identify indicators 5.3

General 5.3.1

In general, indicators are parameters providing information about specific states or conditions, which are not directly measurable. The objective of applying indicators in a vulnerability assessment is to use quantitative, qualitative or semi-qualitative information to estimate and evaluate the effects of climate change on vulnerability dimensions, i.e. by comparing indicator values against critical thresholds or previous estimations. Often, quantitative information does not exist and/or thresholds are not defined. Then, evaluation of indicators will depend on normative, and often qualitative, expert judgements.

At least one indicator for each relevant factor in the analysis should be selected. These indicator values are later to be aggregated to vulnerability components (climate stimuli, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and thus contribute to the composite vulnerability score. Annex D provides examples of sample indicators for vulnerability assessments.

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Select indicators 5.3.2

There are two aspects (spatial and temporal) that should be considered for selecting indicators, especially for making sure that they are specific enough:

- Spatial coverage and resolution; - Temporal coverage and time frame.

The process of indicator selection is very iterative, often time-consuming, and sometimes driven by the necessity to reformulate indicators. In order to select the relevant indicators for each factor, they should be discussed in expert workshops with the pertinent specialists. In practice, data availability or resource constrains (time and budget) normally limit the number of indicators.

For the collection of climate stimuli indicators, quantified data will largely consist of directly measurable or modeled climate parameters such as average temperature, amount and distribution of precipitation.

For exposure and sensitivity factors, ideally there will exist bio-physical or socio-economic data from measurements or models such as demographic / hydrological/ crop models. More likely, the definition of indicators will rely on the availability of national statistics, past observations, expert opinion, or a combination thereof. It should be considered, that also exposure and sensitivity might change in the future.

For the adaptive capacity component, indicators are usually less direct. Local expertise should be integrated in order to find consensus between the involved experts and stakeholders.

Create a list of indicators 5.3.3

It is recommended to capture the total of indicators identified in a table or sheet, and to record all with further relevant information (metadata). These include:

- Description: A brief description of the indicator; - Component and factor: The vulnerability component (e.g. climate stimuli) and factor (e.g.

precipitation) the indicator represents; - Reasoning: A brief explanation outlining the reason for selecting each of the indicators; - Spatial coverage: The spatial coverage required for the indicator data; - Unit of measurement: The unit of measurement or spatial resolution required; - Temporal coverage: The temporal coverage required; - Monitoring: The required period for updating indicator values; - Data source: Existing and/or potential data sources.

An indicator factsheet template is provided at Fritzsche, Kerstin, et al. Indicator and data factsheet. Annex to Concept and guidelines for standardised vulnerability assessments [viewed 2017-03- . Available at: http://www.adaptationcommunity.net/?wpfb_dl=207

Executing a vulnerability assessment 6

Data acquisition and management 6.1

Gather data 6.1.1

Data for the reference period and the future is necessary. For the past and present, measurement data are often available. For the future, scenarios and projections need to be used for the description of the climate stimuli, sensitivities as well as exposure, provided that these are available or determinable. If no quantitative data for the future is available, qualitative data is needed.

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- Climate projections: The climate of the future is typically represented by the outcome of a regional climate model, based on specific emission or concentration scenario and a global climate model. In order to describe the range of uncertainties, so-called ensembles of climate projections based on different combinations of global and regional climate models are used. If there are insufficient ensemble approaches for the object of investigation, at least two different climate projections should be used to represent a range of potential futures;

- Sensitivity scenarios and scenarios for exposure: Sensitivity and exposure scenarios should, where possible, be consistent with climate projections. Since the exposure is closely linked to the development of (socioeconomic) sensitivity, sensitivity and spatial scenarios should be developed together. The existing uncertainties can be taken into account by using at least two sensitivity and spatial scenarios;

- Scenario combination: Climate projections and scenarios for sensitivity and spatial occurrence have to be combined for the analysis of potential climate impacts in future.

The data required for the estimation of climate stimuli, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators will be collected by using different methodologies:

- Measurement: Physical measurements are carried out for indicators such as air humidity, water runoff and soil moisture. Measurement may also encompass ‘remote sensing’ methods, such as analysis of satellite data to determine land use/ land cover;

- Censuses and surveys: Information on household income, education and traditional irrigation techniques are normally determined by census and/or survey data. Some commonly used methods to incorporate socio-economic data obtained through censuses or surveys in a vulnerability assessment are aggregation (e.g. from community to province level) and/or extrapolation;

- Modelling: Models are used in vulnerability assessments to estimate future climate stimuli (e.g. change in temperature or precipitation), sensitivity or exposure factors as well as potential future climate change impacts (e.g. runoff for a certain amount of precipitation, change in crop yields due to temperature change). Modelling can be based on the results from scenario development, but usually still is a time- and resource-intensive method of developing data. Models are very complex and normally require expertise of research centers, universities and private companies. The quality of the model is also highly dependent on the quality of the input data´;

- Expert judgement: Expert judgment should only be used when quantitative data is not available.

Evaluate data quality and results 6.1.2

Quality control and analysis of data and indicators is an important step of the process. Once data have been gathered, a quality check needs to be conducted. To this end, a range of quality checks and criteria should be followed:

- Quality and format of the data and legibility of files; - Spatial and temporal coverage; - Missing data values or ‘outliers’ in the data (see for example OECD 2008); - Geographical projection of the data.

Both the input data as well as the results, either calculated or obtained through expert interviews, are subject to uncertainties. Sources of uncertainty for calculated climate impacts can be found in the used models and scenarios, the data and the nature of the selected indicators themselves. In order to facilitate the interpretation of the results, an assessment of the confidence level of the results is recommended (see also MASTRANDREA, M.D. et al. Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. IPCC. 2010.). An assessment of the degree of confidence for each indicator and climate impact is recommended, at least on a scale from "low" to "medium" to "high", and better still on a five-stage scale, but the scale format should be case specific.

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Data management 6.1.3

Experience has shown the importance of documenting data, particularly when qualitative or quantitative questions about data arise. Insufficient knowledge about data from third-party organizations can easily lead to duplication of effort.

Datasets should therefore be stored in a database to avoid the risk of redundancy and data loss. Metadata shall be documented in a systematic way. They describe the content and characteristics of the different datasets and give instructions for interpreting values.

International standards ) are available and can provide guidance on structure and mandatory fields for metadata. Editors for standardization of metadata are also often included in GIS software products.

ulnerability Sourcebook can be used as a guideline for documenting indicators.

Normalize and aggregate indicators 6.2

General 6.2.1

The term ‘normalization’ refers to the transformation of indicator values measured on different scales and in different units into unit-less values on a common scale. A standard value range from 0 to 1 is commonly used in vulnerability assessments. If possible the normalization is to get from numbers to a meaning by evaluating the criticalness of an indicator value. One possibility is to define ‘0’ as ‘optimal, no improvement necessary or possible’ and ‘1’ as ‘critical, system no longer functions’.

issues related to defining, collecting, processing, interpreting and presenting quantitative environmental information; including normalization and aggregation.

Determine the scale of measurement 6.2.2

The scale of measurement is determined by the observed indicator (temperature, soil type, population

age in absolute numbers or grouped in classes). Depending on the observed phenomena different

mathematical operations can be applied to analyze a dataset. Different methods apply for indicators

with categorical and metric scales.

Table 1: Scales of indicator measurements

Scale of measurement/ category Measurement unit Example Metrical ° C Temperature

mm Precipitation

Categorical Ordinal ranking in classes Education level

Global ranking in risks from

extreme weather events

Global Climate Risk

Index

Nominal descriptive classes Type of crop

Male/Female Type of Gender

Normalize indicator values 6.2.3

In order to combine the information on the different indicators, it is necessary to harmonize the dimensions and scales of them by conducting normalization. Such normalization removes the measurement units of the indicators.

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For the normalization of metric indicator values, it is recommended to bring all values on a dimensionless scale of 0 - 1. If available one can rely on agreed or technically justified thresholds for this purpose. Should there be no such threshold available, a so-called "min-max normalization" can be applied. In this case, the smallest value across all periods considered is set to "0", while the largest value is set to "1". If indicators are normalized this way, they do not contain information on the strength of the indicator nor as to when it is critical. This type of normalization does not necessarily imply that the extreme values of the scale indicate optimal or critical conditions.

When the min-max method cannot be applied normalizing categorical indicator values, it is recommended to use a rating scale by defining classes in negative or positive terms, for example by applying an evaluation scheme consisting of a predetermined amount of values (e.g. five, but the scale format should be case specific). The allocation of indicator values in a scale should be made on the basis of the best knowledge available (from existing literature, expert knowledge or any other reliable source). To aggregate them further, it should be ensured that all indicators integrated in the five class evaluation scheme values are transformed into the value range of 0 to 1 afterwards.

For further details and practical examples it can be looked closely on the methods described in the Sourcebook.

Weight and aggregate indicators 6.2.4

One or more indicators are used to describe the different vulnerability components, such as climate stimuli, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. It sometimes happens in a vulnerability assessment that these indicators do not have equal influence on the respective vulnerability component. In some cases there might be valid reasons for assigning non-equal weights to all indicators (e.g. lack of information, consensus or resources for defining different weights).

Neither participatory nor statistical processes provide an ‘objective’ way of defining weights. Consequently weights should be defined as value judgments. It is therefore recommended to use participatory and therefore transparent approaches as a more practical way of applying weighting, since statistical procedures for deriving weights require substantial resources as well as sophisticated statistical knowledge.

For aggregating individual indicators into composite indicators a method called ‘weighted arithmetic aggregation’ is recommended. To this end, individual indicators are multiplied by their weights, summed and subsequently divided by the sum of their weights to calculate the composite indicator of a vulnerability component. If equal weighting applies, indicators are simply summed and divided by the number of indicators.

Literature, especially by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (for example, OECD. Handbook on constructing composite indicators: methodology and user guide. 2008. Paris: OECD [viewed 2017-03- ), provides various methods for weighting and aggregation that should be consulted and applied depending on the available resources for the vulnerability assessment.

Aggregate vulnerability components to vulnerability 6.3

Aggregate indicators to vulnerability components 6.3.1

If more than one indicator for each of the four vulnerability components climate stimuli, exposure,

sensitivity and adaptive capacity exists, they need to be combined into a composite indicator for each

vulnerability component. For enabling meaningful aggregation of individual indicators, it should be

noted that all indicators of the four vulnerability components must be aligned in the same way. This

means that a low or high score represents a ‘low’ or ‘high’ value in terms of vulnerability.

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Aggregate climate stimuli, exposure and sensitivity to climate impact 6.3.2

After developing composite indicators from the three components climate stimuli, exposure and sensitivity, they have to be combined to form the climate impact. Once more, weighted arithmetic aggregation is applied to calculate the climate impact.

Alternatively the results of climate impact models may be used, in which parameters for climate stimuli, exposure and sensitivity has already been integrated. These model results have the advantage that the units are still available and thus the information is easy to grasp.

Aggregate climate impact and adaptive capacity into vulnerability where climatic and 6.3.3

non-climatic threats will be addressed

In case relevant quantitative indicators for adaptive capacity are determined, the composite indicator for climate impact can be aggregated with the composite indicator adaptive capacity for resulting in an overall composite vulnerability indicator of the system under review. To this end, weighted arithmetic aggregation will be applied once more. Often, though, adaptive capacity has to be assessed based on normative decisions what makes aggregation with climate impact less feasible. Anyway, adaptive capacity should better be communicated separately from the results of the climate impact and vulnerability assessment. It can only reduce future climate impacts if it is also used to implement the necessary measures. Therefore, a single communication of vulnerability is not sufficient.

The following aspects should be taken into account during the process of aggregating potential impact and adaptive capacities into one vulnerability composite:

- Weighting of climate impact and adaptive capacity: Due to the aggregation methodology that allows full compensability, a high value for adaptive capacity has the potential to largely offset a high impact value. Consequently, the overall result from the vulnerability assessment will be low vulnerability - despite a high potential impact. When adaptive capacity is defined only as a generic factor (e.g. income or educational status), its result on the potential impact might be arbitrary. It is recommended to consider these potential pitfalls when weighting different potential impact and adaptive capacity factors. Expert judgment or a participatory process, such as a stakeholder workshop, will help to decide whether, and how, to distribute weights;

- Visual overlay of climate impact and adaptive capacity: Depending on the focus of the assessment, a composite vulnerability value may not always be required. In some cases, the identification of areas of high climate impact and low adaptive capacity (hotspots) may be enough for the purpose of the assessment. A visual overlay of climate impact and adaptive capacity on the map of a particular geographic area is therefore considered optional, but not mandatory;

- Making single indicators and vulnerability components visible: For displaying how underlying factors of vulnerability influence its overall state, again it is recommended to follow a transparent approach. This can be achieved for example by illustrating the influence of single indicators on vulnerability components using pie charts.

Aggregate several sub-vulnerabilities into an overall vulnerability 6.3.4

In those cases in which the vulnerability assessment covers different climate impacts in one sector, several sectors or regions, different sub-vulnerability factors can be further aggregated stepwise into one single, overall vulnerability value using the above-mentioned approach (weighted arithmetic aggregation). It is important to recall that such an overall vulnerability value represents highly aggregated information, which might provide no exact information on the influence of the underlying indicators and vulnerability components. In order to make best use of the underlying information, intermediate results of the assessment should be included in any report of the vulnerability assessment. One way to keep detailed inner information in the aggregation process of a vulnerability assessment is presenting the results in a spider- web chart.

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In practice, the question as to how far such aggregations are feasible and justifiable, and how the necessary decisions are made, are particularly relevant in the case of more complex and cross-sectoral analyses. If these questions are not adequately answered, a qualitative, interpretative summary of the individual results should be preferred - since the decision to weight all the climate effects at the same time would be arbitrary and would ultimately have to be justified by normative criteria.

Evaluate the results 6.4

It is important to clearly distinguish between the evaluation of the results and the technical analysis.

The strength of a potential climate impact cannot be equated with its significance. While even small

changes can be of great significance in some systems – for example certain ecosystems – other climate

impacts that may be stronger can be easier compensated. The strength of a change can represent its

significance only if thresholds or other benchmarks can be used.

The criteria and the scheme of the evaluation depend on the assessment’s objective. If the aim is to

compare impacts or vulnerabilities across different impacts or action fields, the evaluation should be

considered in an integrated way. Such an integrated evaluation can take place in various approaches:

a) Quantitatively using climate-specific benchmarks (threshold values);

b) Quantitatively using common reference quantities, for example through normalization or

monetarization;

c) Qualitatively by experts based on comprehensive evaluation criteria, developed in

agreement with the decision-making level.

Determining evaluation criteria that are climate impact specific and comprehensive usually represents

a challenge. In order to merge single evaluations, one also needs a measure for the weighting of these

evaluations.

Specific thresholds for determining when a climate impact becomes critical are difficult to establish, and

(so far) many climate impacts cannot be quantified anyway. Therefore, a qualitative comprehensive

evaluation often is the only way to draw comparative conclusions. Even if climate impacts can be

calculated using models or quantitative indicators, uniform quantitative evaluation criteria such as

monetarization are difficult to apply to all climate impacts. A whole series of normative assumptions are

for instance needed in order to monetarize climate impacts on natural habitats and ecosystems, for

example spread of invasive species.

Ensure quality and assess the confidence level 6.5

General 6.5.1

In order to ensure the applicability of transparency, legitimation, robustness and quality criteria in a vulnerability assessment, the following principles shall be established:

Transparency 6.5.2

It is extremely important to choose a transparent approach for decision-making during the assessment and when presenting the results. This helps to gain and maintain comprehensibility throughout the process and to assure a high degree of usability of the final products. Transparency is especially needed in the following:

- Methodology: Is the methodology known to everybody involved and well enough documented to allow newcomers to understand the steps and decisions taken?

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- Normative decisions: How are decisions on identifying impacts, selecting indicators, normalization, weighting and aggregation of indicators taken? How are aspects of data scarcity and other challenges dealt with? Are the decisions and responses documented and communicated?

- Uncertainty: What is the methodological response for dealing with uncertainties? And how will this response be communicated?

- Strengths and weaknesses: Are the strengths and weaknesses of the approach explained in the final products in order to assure credibility and allow a realistic use?

Strongly linked to transparency is the comprehensibility of the approach and its findings. Even the most appropriate methodology and the highest quality of the assessment will be meritless if results are not understood and used for the planning, mainstreaming and implementation of strategies and measures for adaptation to climate change. The presentation of the results thus shall a) be tangible and b) contain conclusions and recommendations.

- Tangibility: Do the stakeholders involved in adaptation planning understand the results of the assessment even if they have not been involved (the latter of which should be avoided)? Can they retrace the steps and decisions taken, correctly interpret the maps and be aware of the key strengths and weaknesses of the results?

- Conclusions and recommendations: Do the results give (or allow for) first orientation about adaptation priorities? Do they provide recommendations on how to fill gaps and improve the methodology or data availability for monitoring purposes?

Legitimation 6.5.3

The objectives of following a participatory approach in the context of a vulnerability assessment are manifold. On the one hand, participation will be needed for assuring the involvement of all available expertise required for a comprehensive assessment and high quality decision-making (e.g. vulnerability factors, indicators, weighting and normalization of indicators). On the other hand, participation engenders awareness raising and capacity development among the involved stakeholders as well as a common understanding and ownership. These are needed in order to assure that the results are used for adaptation planning, mainstreaming and implementation.

Participation shall be assured in many, if not all, phases of the assessment. Stakeholders to be invited to participate in a vulnerability assessment may vary according to the scope and context of a vulnerability assessment. In a national vulnerability assessment, for example, participation will be mostly focused on technical experts at the national level, who are involved in adaptation planning, i.e. representatives of involved sectors as well as climate change and modelling experts. In this setting, then, it shall be assured that specific characteristics of the system that is assessed are cautiously considered, such as regional particularities, gender differences and the specific needs of vulnerable groups.

The specific kind of participation needed in the vulnerability assessment will ultimately depend on its specific objectives, but also on the range of stakeholders available and the underlying modalities of participation.

- Objectives of participation: What kind of participation will be needed, and for which purpose? - Stakeholders: Who is involved in the assessment? Are gender differences and the interests and

specific characteristics of especially vulnerable groups represented? - Participation modalities: How and when will stakeholders be involved? What are existing time

constraints? Which cultural and/or governance mechanisms of participation need to be taken into account?

Robustness 6.5.4

A climate change vulnerability assessment has to deal with high degrees of uncertainty, concerning both climate change projections and limited availability of required information on biophysical and socio-economic vulnerability factors. Additionally, current and future vulnerability factors and their relevance

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can differ from one region to another and from one sector to the next. Some of the factors are highly interdependent, too.

The complexity of the analysis is therefore extremely high and it is not possible to exactly represent the current and – even less – future reality. Nonetheless, science is advancing and understanding of climate change effects, vulnerability patterns and adaptation needs is growing. It is thus highly important to gather the existing up-to-date knowledge on all vulnerability factors and their inter-linkages in order to make sure that results represent reality as closely as possible. This implies for a common understanding about the following:

- Climate information and modelling: What is the best climate information and modelling that can be used to understand climate change effects on the assessed territory, considering the most recent scientific standards and the most appropriate scale?

- Information on sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacities: Will up-to-date knowledge on the focused territory / sectors / exposure unit be considered? Are all relevant vulnerability components taken into account?

Quality 6.5.5

Once again, at the beginning of the assessment process, the following elements need to be discussed and defined in order to make sure that aspects of quality and utility of the results as well as of a common understanding and of ownership among the stakeholders are sufficiently considered. In case of a , this means that the key stakeholders responsible for the planning and implementation of adaptation strategies, will need to agree on a common objective and approach.

- Objective: What do we need the vulnerability assessment for and what are the desired products and outcomes?

- Scale, focus and time period: What is the geographical and sector scope of the assessment? Will a regional, sector-wise or climate stimuli-based approach be applied? Or will the focus rather be on specific exposure units or potential impacts? Additionally, a common understanding of the time period of the assessment shall be created;

- Sound conceptual framework: What is the conceptual framework to be used for the assessment? Is this framework in line with nationally and internationally recognized frameworks (e.g. IPCC; NAP, NAPA)? How to assure a common understanding of the key concepts and definitions among involved stakeholders?

- Sound methodology: Which methodology will be needed to be applied in order to assure high quality results and to reach objectives in an effective and efficient way?

- Work plan, actors and resources: Who is responsible for which part of the process? Who will be involved? When and with which resources?

Analyse cross-sectoral interdependencies and hot spots 6.6

Identify interdependencies between sectors 6.6.1

Impacts chains can also serve to analyse the interrelationships between the individual sectors. In the graphical representation, such relationships can be shown, for example, by different colour assignments per sectors of action, or when a climate effect in one sector causes an environmental impact in another sector.

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Report a vulnerability assessment 7

Prepare a vulnerability assessment report 7.1

The vulnerability assessment report is one of numerous ways to present its results and outcomes. The report should especially provide a clear description of the objectives of the vulnerability assessment, the methods applied as well as the key findings. It should also provide the reader with all the background information needed to understand and interpret the results.

Some relevant aspects that should be considered before writing the report are mentioned as follows:

- Objective of the assessment: The objective of the vulnerability assessment should be emphasized in the beginning of the report. For example, if the study is aiming at providing a sound basis for monitoring and evaluation of adaptation measures, it will be essential to give a clear and extensive description of the methodology and all the steps undertaken within the vulnerability assessment. This is because stakeholders will need to be able to recapitulate on the methodology and approach when repeating the vulnerability assessment a few years later;

- Target audience: The content, style and language of the report should be appropriate to its main audience. The skills and technical expertise of the target group should determine the format, vocabulary and the way in which the concept is explained;

- Lessons learnt: Lessons learned are very valuable. By describing them in a transparent way they can support others facing the same concerns while also helping the audience to understand the results of the vulnerability assessment.

Describe the vulnerability assessment 7.2

After having made clear what the objective, the target audience and the lessons learnt of the vulnerability assessment report are, the next step should be a description of the vulnerability assessment, by keeping four core sections in mind.

a) Context and objectives: - The context, in which the vulnerability assessment is conducted (for example as part of a

specific program); - Objectives and approach of the vulnerability assessment institutions and key

stakeholders or target groups involved; - The system and impact(s) under review, as well as the geographical scope and

timeframe. b) Methodology and implementation:

- The assumed cause-effect relationships underlying the assessment, including the impact chains;

- Selected factors and indicators and the method(s) used in quantifying the information on data quality, listing any data gaps and how to deal with them;

- The selection criteria for the stakeholders and experts (in case of an expert assessment); - The number of experts that were consulted for the expert assessment including the

sectors/geographic areas or professional background that were represented by the experts;

- The weighting used and the process(es) by which it was determined (e.g. stakeholder process);

- The aggregation approach used for assessing vulnerability; - Information on data sources and calculations for future assessments in the case of M&E.

c) Findings: - climate stimuli, exposure,

sensitivity, potential impact and adaptive capacity, as well as overall vulnerability; - Challenges and opportunities encountered at the various stages of the vulnerability

assessment; - Lessons learnt.

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d) Conclusions and lessons learnt: - Conclusions for on-going or forthcoming (policy) processes, such as adaptation

strategies and planning; - Concrete recommendations for further assessments or adaptation measures.

Illustrate findings 7.3

Illustrations appeal to the reader’s attention and improve the comprehensibility of texts. Maps, diagrams and graphs are valuable and compelling, yet optional, tools for illustrating assessment findings. Illustrations can be part of the reporting, but can also be used in a separate manner.

a) Illustrating by using maps: Maps are the method of choice for geographical data and comparisons. They can have a wide range of content, styles and functions depending on available technology, resources, knowledge and the intention of the cartographer. Formal requirements clear and comprehensible maps are presented as follows: - Title and a description text avoid misinterpretations when the map is examined

independently from the report; - Scale, a north arrow and labels for key elements to foster the regional understanding and

highlight the relationship between two map elements; - Source and the year of data; - Legend to specify on the features in the map w (e.g. land use classes) and to avoid

misunderstandings; - Map explanation (as all other graphs, diagrams etc.) in the text body of the report with a

reference to the respective object. b) Illustrating by using diagrams and graphs: Maps are just one way of illustrating findings and

making comparisons. Another alternative is to use various types of diagrams and graphs. When designing a chart, it is particularly important to include any information the reader needs.

Report findings to allow for appropriate adaptation planning 7.4

Adaptation should be incorporated into core policies, planning, practices, and programs whenever

possible. That is why there should be a section in the vulnerability assessment report looking at

planning and strategy considerations regarding climate change adaptation. In line with the ISO/WD2

Coordinating Task Force, following points when planning to establish adaptation policies and strategies

should be considered and included in the vulnerability assessment report: - Prioritization of vulnerability and actions: to prioritize vulnerability to climate change of (most

vulnerable group/ most vulnerable area and sector within the organization) and early actions (to be taken in order to maximize economic benefits and minimize potential damages to the organizations);

- Planning of adaptation measures: to include a time table for adaptation measures and actions in the short- / and middle term and to consider the trends of current climate change impacts and the projected climate change for long-term actions to adapt to climate change;

- Consider internal and external policies and strategies: to pay special attention to the organization´s internal policies and strategies and external drivers like the National Adaptation Strategies and National Adaptation Plans, the NDC (Nationally Determined Commitment) under UNFCCC, the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals: Goal 13 Climate Action and other related goals;

- Contemplate risk management methods and tools: to consider risk management methods and tools to help identify, assess, and prioritize options to reduce vulnerability to potential environmental, social, and economic implications of climate change;

- Acknowledge ecosystem-based approaches: to take into account, where relevant, strategies to increase ecosystem resilience and protect critical ecosystem services on which humans depend to reduce vulnerability of human and natural systems to climate change;

ISO 14091:2020 (pre-WD)


- Consider maximize mutual benefits: to look at strategies that complement or directly support other related climate or environmental initiatives, such as efforts to improve disaster preparedness, promote sustainable resource management, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions including the development of cost effective technologies.

ISO 14091:2020 (pre-WD)


Annex 1

(informative)

Guidelines on Vulnerability Assessments

-

SCHNEIDERBAUER, S., SCHAUSER, I.

Assessments. Recommendations of the Interministerial Working Group on Adaptation to

Climate Change of the German Federal Government. 2017. Dessau-Roßlau: Umweltbundesamt

(UBA) available at https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/publikationen/guidelines-for-

climate-impact-vulnerability

- FRITZSCHE, K., SCHNEIDERBAUER, S., BUBECK, P., KIENBERGER, S., BUTH, M., ZEBISCH, M.,

KAHLENBORN, W. The Vulnerability Sourcebook. Concept and guidelines for standardised

vulnerability assessments. 2014. Eschborn: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale

Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH

- National Performance

and Benefit Measurement Framework. Section B: Selecting and Monitoring Adaptation Indicators.

2012 [viewed 2017-03-

http://www.kccap.info/index.php?option=com_phocadownload&view=category&download=31

2:section-b-selecting-and-monitoring-adaptation- -performance-and-

benefit-measurement

- PROVIA Guidance on Assessing

Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change. Consultation Document. 2013 [viewed

2017-03-

- FCCC). Assessing

climate change impacts and vulnerability making informed adaptation decisions. 2011 [viewed

at 2017-03-

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/pub_nwp_making_informed_adaptation_decision

s.pdf

- UNITED STATES AGENCY Spatial climate

change vulnerability assessments: A review of data, methods, and issues -

03-

ISO 14091:2020 (pre-WD)


Annex 2

(informative)

Linking vulnerability and risk management concepts. Change of the

conceptual framework between IPCC AR4 and IPCC AR5

for determining the impacts of climate change from a

vulnerability-based approa -oriented conceptual framework (IPCC

AR5 is highly influenced by the Special Report on Extreme Events (SREX) which links

climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction approaches.

Table 2 - Differen risk concept (AR5) and vulnerability concept

(AR4)Concept:

Vulnerability

(AR5) Concept: Risk ISO Concept: Vulnerability

(Risk with Adaptation)

Source ,

IMA Leitfaden

Main

Risk (R)

Key

Components

Exposure (E), Sensitivity

(S), Adaptive capacity (AC)

Hazard (H), Exposure (E),

Climate Stimuli (CS), Exposure

(E), Sensitivity (S), Adaptive

capacity (AC)

Function /R= f (CS, E, S, AC)

Short

definition of the character,

magnitude, and rate of

climate change and

variation to which a

system is exposed, its

sensitivity, and its

adaptive capacity. (IPCC

2007)

Risk results from the

interaction of vulnerability,

exposure, and hazard. In this

report, the term risk is

primarily to refer to the risks of

climate-change impacts. (IPCC

sensitivity or susceptibility to

harm and lack of capacity to

cope and adapt.

adaptation) depends on the

vulnerability to a (potential)

climate impact and on the

system’s adaptive capacity.

The climate stimuli, the

climate change exposure

and the sensitivity

determine the (potential)

impact of climate changes to a

given system.

Conceptual

differences

Climate related signal =

Exposure (based on the

Sourcebook

interpretation of IPCC

2007)

Climate related signal + direct

physical impact = Hazard (IPCC

Climate related signal=

Climate stimuli

Exposure = Climate related

signal (based on the

interpretation of IPCC

Exposure = The presence of

settings that could be adversely

affected + (spatial

consideration)

Exposure = The presence of

settings that could be

adversely affected + (spatial

consideration)

ISO 14091:2020 (pre-WD)


5.

Figure – Illustration of the core concepts of vulnerability based on the Impact Chain from the

(AR5) based on the IPCC AR5 with a strong influence of the (SREX)

Special Report on Extreme Events framework.

2007)

Sensitivity = the degree to

which a system is affected,

either adversely or

beneficially, by climate-

related stimuli (IPCC 2007)

Sensitivity = same as in (IPCC

2007)

Sensitivity = same as in (IPCC

2007)

Adaptive capacities = Ability of systems,

institutions, humans, and

other organisms to adjust

to potential damage, to

take advantage of

opportunities, or to

respond to consequences (IPCC 2007)

Adaptive capacities = same as

in (IPCC 2007)

Adaptive capacities = same as

in (IPCC 2007)

ISO 14091:2020 (pre-WD)


Annex 3

(informative)

Vulnerability Assessments and uncertainty: climate and non-climatic

scenarios

Future changes in climatic or socio-economic factors, and the effect they will have on societies, cannot

be predicted. This is why climate scientists usually make use of climate change scenarios or projections

instead of predictions. The same applies for socio-economic factors and related scenario development

methodologies. These are used to project the dynamic nature of vulnerability and its changes over time

and space.

Any assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities is dealing with uncertainties for the

following reasons:

- The magnitude of climate change depends on future greenhouse gas emissions, which are

unknown. Climate models are usually driven by more than one emission scenario, which leads

to multiple results. Different climate models produce different results. While all models agree

that average global temperatures will increase, their projections for precipitation trends or the

geographical distribution of changes often diverge;

- Climate extremes, which are often highly relevant for climate impact assessments, are more

difficult to project than slow onset, long-term trends. Projections of extreme events (heavy rain,

storms, hail), their frequency and severity, are particularly subject to uncertainty;

- Models used for impact assessments, such as changes in crop yields, encompass additional

uncertainties;

- Developing estimates about future vulnerability and response capacities is at least as

challenging as estimating the likelihood of physical events and so-called extreme events. These

also increase the uncertainty of vulnerability assessments;

- Different scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments are used to project e.g. shared

socio-economic pathways (SSPs). These scenarios were created by the climate change research

community for establishing a framework to improve assessment of climate change, its impacts,

and response options. Depending on the methodology (top-down approach or bottom-up

approach) the uncertainties will be located in different dimensions of the scenario development.

As a conclusion, addressing these uncertainties is crucial when designing, planning and conducting a

vulnerability assessment. However, uncertainties in scenarios should not serve as an argument for

inaction.

ISO 14091:2020 (pre-WD)


Annex 4

(informative)

Examples of sample indicators for vulnerability assessments

Table 3: Examples of sample indicators for vulnerability assessments based on the

Sourcebook

Vulnerability

component

Indicator

category

Example indicator Possible data source

Climate stimuli Climate stimuli Number of nights with

T(min) above 25°C

Met. offices, global

circulation models (GCMs),

regional circulation models

(RCMs)

Frequency of

(experienced)

storm events

Statistical office,

national disaster or loss

databases

Met. offices

Exposure Socio-economic

characteristics

Location and types of

traffic infrastructure,

industrial parks, etc. at risk

Statistical office,

national disaster or loss

databases, own data

Bio-physical

characteristics

Location and types of

habitats, resource basis,

etc. at risk

Statistical office, Environmental

agencies

Sensitivity Bio-physical

characteristics

Crop type

Irrigation system

Statistical office/geodetic

institutes.

Geodetic institutes

Socio-

economic

characteristics

Population density Statistical office/

hazard maps

Adaptive

capacity

Socio-

economic

characteristics

Access to efficient

irrigation technology

Access to health facilities

Statistical office/

World Bank

Literature/target population

ISO 14091:2020 (pre-WD)


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