clara deser, ncar symposium in honor of maurice blackmon
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Clara Deser, NCAR
Symposium in Honor of Maurice Blackmon
Clara Deser, NCAR
Symposium in Honor of Maurice Blackmon Mentor Extraordinaire
CDCPostdoc 1990-1991Res. Sci. 1992-1996NCARScientist 1997-
Clara Deser Marika HollandBette Otto-Bliesner
CGD Women Scientists Hired by Maurice Blackmon
Blackmon and Bjerknes:Air-Sea Interaction in the North Atlantic
Clara Deser, NCAR
Blackmon J.Bjerknes
Synoptic MeteorologyENSO
North Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction
Year-to-year variability
Multi-decadal trends:Ocean forcing atmosphere?
Composite SLP, SSTHigh (1904, 1913, 1920) minusLow (1902, 1909, 1915)
1920-1924 minus 1894-1898
“Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction” Jacob Bjerknes, 1964, Adv. in Geophysics 82 pp
Year-to-year variability:
Multi-decadal trends:Ocean forcing atmosphere?
Composite SLP, SSTHigh (1904, 1913, 1920) minusLow (1902, 1909, 1915)
1920-1924 minus 1894-1898
W
C
H
L
“Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction” Jacob Bjerknes, 1964, Adv. in Geophysics 82 pp
Year-to-year variability:Atmosphere forcing ocean
Multi-decadal trends:Ocean forcing atmosphere?
Composite SLP, SSTHigh (1904, 1913, 1920) minusLow (1902, 1909, 1915)
1920-1924 minus 1894-1898
W
C
H
L
“Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction” Jacob Bjerknes, 1964, Adv. in Geophysics 82 pp
Year-to-year variability:Atmosphere forcing ocean
Multi-decadal trends:Ocean forcing atmosphere?
Composite SLP, SSTHigh (1904, 1913, 1920) minusLow (1902, 1909, 1915)
1920-1924 minus 1894-1898
W
C
H
L
H
L
C
W
“Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction” Jacob Bjerknes, 1964, Adv. in Geophysics 82 pp
Year-to-year variability:Atmosphere forcing ocean
Multi-decadal trends:Ocean forcing atmosphere?
Composite SLP, SSTHigh (1904, 1913, 1920) minusLow (1902, 1909, 1915)
1920-1924 minus 1894-1898
W
C
H
L
H
L
C
W
Gulf Stream “Warming”(Bjerknes, 1964)
+3 °C
+3 °C
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930
Year-to-year variability:Atmosphere forcing ocean
Multi-decadal trends:Ocean forcing atmosphere?
Composite SLP, SSTHigh (1904, 1913, 1920) minusLow (1902, 1909, 1915)
1920-1924 minus 1894-1898
W
C
H
L
H
L
C
W
“Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction” Jacob Bjerknes, 1964, Adv. in Geophysics 82 pp
North Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction Revisited
“Surface Climate Variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during Winter: 1900-1989”
Deser and Blackmon (J. Climate 1993)
“Interdecadal Variations in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Associated Atmospheric Conditions”
Kushnir (J. Climate 1994)
Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS)
NOAA OGP “Atlantic Climate Change Program”
Percent of months with data
1901-1920
1881-1900 1941-1960
1961-1980
1861-1880 1921-1940C
OA
DS
Dat
a C
over
age
Warm minus Cold Years 50-60NYear-to-year variability:
Atmosphere forcing oceanW
C
H
L
H
L
C
W
Kushnir 1994
W
W
C
H
L
Kushnir 1994
1950-1964 minus 1970-1984
Multi-decadal trends:Ocean forcing atmosphere?
W
L
Deser and Blackmon (1993)Objective Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature Variability
1960 1970 1980 1990
Sea Ice
SST
EOF 2 (1900-1989)
+-
Deser and Blackmon (1993)Objective Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature Variability
1960 1970 1980 1990
Sea Ice
SST
EOF 2 (1900-1989)
C
W
Associated Surface Winds
+-
Deser and Blackmon (1993)Objective Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature Variability
1960 1970 1980 1990
Sea Ice
SST
EOF 2 (1900-1989)
C
W
Associated Surface Winds
SST, Air T
+-
Deser and Blackmon (1993)Objective Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature Variability
1960 1970 1980 1990
Sea Ice
SST
EOF 2 (1900-1989)
C
W
Associated Surface Winds
ICE
SST, Air T
ICE
SST1960 1970 1980 1990
+-
Atmospheric Response toNorth Atlantic Sea Ice and Sea
Surface Temperature Anomalies
Recent Work
Atmospheric Response toNorth Atlantic Sea Ice and Sea
Surface Temperature Anomalies
Recent WorkShiling Peng
with Ting, Whittaker, Hoerling, Alexander, LiNOAA Climate Diagnostics Center
“The Transient Atmospheric Circulation Response to North Atlantic SST and Sea Ice Anomalies”
(Deser, Tomas and Peng: J. Climate 2007)
Transient Atmospheric Response
Imposed SST AnomalyDec 1 Apr 30
SST climatology + anomaly
SST climatologyInitialCondition
1
InitialCondition
240SST climatologySST climatology + anomaly
Atmospheric GCM Experiments (NCAR CCM3)
+6 °C
Geopotential Height ResponseDay 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5
Positive Negative Contour interval = 10 mshading: 95% significance
WeeklyResponse 1-5
6-10
11-15
WeeklyResponse 1-5
6-10
11-15
Baroclinic Barotropic
Amplification
Local Hemispheric
Spatial Correlations Between1000mb and 300mb Geopotential Height Responses
Transition at 4 weeks
Bar
ocl
inc
B
aro
tro
pic
Geopotential Height Response
Intrinsic Variability
Geopotential Height Response
Forced byDiabatic Heating
Transient eddy vorticityflux convergence
+ SST - SST
Equilibrium Geopotential Height Response
+ SST
Clara Deser, NCAR
Symposium in Honor of Maurice Blackmon