NCAR Annual Budget Review

October 8, 2007

Tim KilleenNCAR Director

NCAR MTDC ExpendituresActuals 1997- 2006; 2007-2008 projection

2.24%2.6%2.2%3.3%

7.0%8.1%

10.5%3.7%

5.6%9.3%

0.1%

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

100,000,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Proj

2008Proj

MTDC

MTDC Growth 1998 -

MTDC Growth 2000 - 2008: 46.8%

69.4%

NCAR Total Funding (Excludes HIAPER Expenses)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06

NSF Base Funding & Supplemental Expenses Non-NSF Expenses

NCAR’s Annual Budget Review (ABR)

• Strategic Planning and the ABR• Overview of 08/09 ABR• Managing NCAR’s Budget• Summary of Laboratory Presentations

Strategic Planning and the ABR

• NCAR’s long-range planning provides the context for our short-term planning process – the ABR.

• The ABR ensures that our activities are consistent with our values and goals and illustrates where we need to make adjustments.

Strategic Planning

and the ABR

Annual Budget Review

Operating Plan

NCAR Annual Report

NCAR Strategic Plan

NSF Priorities

FY 2008/09 ABR Process

• Internal Lab ABRs

• Labs developed budget and program materials • Accomplishments to date• Plans and priorities for FY 2008 and FY 2009 • 5-year challenges and opportunities

• Presentations to NCAR Executive Committee

• Series of Executive Committee discussions on allocations

• Met with NSF on interim allocation proposal

• With NSF input, implementation and ABR close-out meetings held in late August

Budget Assumptions for FY 2008

• Plan at a conservative level

• Assume 0% to +3%, or $2.4M (Base) NCAR’s projected cost-of-business: 5%, $4.4M

Director’s ABR Guidance Letter for FY 2008

dated March 1, 2007

Long-term Institutional priorities are:• Support for community user facilities and models• Creation of budgetary and programmatic flexibility• Support for Early Career Scientists • Support for programmatic innovation• Support for strategic integrative science• Proposed actions in response to the NSF review of

NCAR/UCAR

NSF Guidance Letter for FY 2007

dated May 5, 2007

• “[S]upport and stewardship to the atmospheric science community through its observing and computing facilities, including its community models.”

• “[C]reate programmatic and budgetary flexibility to ensure participation in community-driven atmospheric science research activities.”

2009/2010 Annual Budget Review

On-going dialogue with NSF through:

• Planning Meetings • NSF visits to the Laboratories • Programmatic Presentations at NSF

Managing our Budget

• Appropriation process uncertain and drawn-out.• NCAR frequently receives its target in the third

or fourth quarter of the year.• Program activities must fall within the fiscal year.• Base funds carryover is limited to 3% (or ~$2.4M) of

its program target. • SPERs - Allows NCAR to accumulate funds for large

events, i.e., aircraft inspections, super computer acquisitions.

• Carryover is always below 3% and NCAR has not had a deficit.

Summary of Laboratory ABR Presentations

CISL Priorities

• Data Center Replacement

• Computer acquisition fund

• Mass Store Archive

CISL Discussion Items

• Balance of service and research • Managing risk in the data center

replacement project• NCAR participation in NSF

cyberinfrastructure competitions

EOL Priorities

• HAIS• Support for Deployment Pool observational

systems• Field Program support and data services• Commitment to 2 aircraft concurrent operations• Wing-Inspection• Build up a long-term equipment replacement

reserve (i.e., C-130 Avionics)• Provide high level of service to increasingly

complex field projects

EOL Discussion Items

• Balance of facilities with development• Budget flexibility to support minor

fluctuations in field program support levels.

• Facility Development Concepts• CAPRIS• Modular Profiling Network• Virtual Operations Center

ESSL Priorities

• Climate Prediction (emphasis on short-term)• Biosphere-Hydrosphere-Atmosphere-

Interactions• Water System• Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting

System• Space Weather• Chemical Weather• Prediction Across Scales: Towards Earth

System Modeling

ESSL Discussion Items

• Plans for the Earth System Model

• Promising integrated research (e.g., BEACHON)

• Strategic Partnerships

RAL Priorities and Discussion Items

• Ensure the continued success of the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) and the Data Assimilation Testbed Center, expanding their testing and evaluation efforts to better serve the modeling community.

• Continue to demonstrate the value of improved weather and climate information through the Societal Impacts Program.

• Improve short-term forecasts of convective weather through the NCAR-wide Short-Term Explicit Prediction (STEP) program.

• Develop innovative methods and techniques to improve the verification of weather forecasts.

• Develop advanced decision support tools for water resource planning and management.

• Work with partners in developing countries to build expertise and infrastructure needed to address weather and climate hazards.

Societal-Environmental Research and Education Laboratory (SERE)

Priorities and Discussion Items

• Build capacity required to ensure resilient communities prepared to cope with and mitigate against climate, water and weather uncertainties.

• Development of the Societal-Resilience System of Systems (SRSS) Conceptual Framework, its Strategic Partners, and Guiding Questions.

• Use of coupled human and natural scientific information in the development of decision processes and assessment tools.

• Design and implement educational programs to ensure the availability of a scientifically literate and engaged workforce and the diversity of scientific excellence required to advance, implement and sustain SRSS.

Sr. Scientist Departures as of 9/21/07

Name

Reas on

Date o f S eparation

Phas ed Retirement

Date

S KUMANICH, ANDREW P . Retired 10/1/2001

MADDEN, ROLAND A. Retired 6/5/2002

CLARK, TERRY L. Retired 11/25/2002

MANKIN, WILLIAM G. Retired 1/4/2003

ERRICO, RONALD M. Voluntary 6/30/2003

ATLAS , ELLIOT L. Retired 8/16/2003

DYE, J AMES E. Retired 3/31/2004

SWARZTRAUBER, P AUL N Retired 10/31/2005

BLACKMON, MAURICE L. Retired 12/31/2005

HARRIS S , ROBERT C. Voluntary 2/2/2006

CROOK, N ANDREW Deceas ed 2/11/2006

BOGDAN, THOMAS J . Voluntary 5/31/2006

BOVILLE, BYRON A. Deceas ed 7/6/2006

HOLZER, THOMAS E. Retired 8/11/2006

RIDLEY, BRIAN A. Retired 2/9/2007

COLLINS , WILLIAM LOA 4/2/2007

BROWN, TIMOTHY LOA 6/18/2007

J ENNE, ROY L. Retired 7/13/2007

HACK, J AMES J . LOA TBD-1/08?

GILMAN, P ETER A. P has ed 5/31/2009

ROBLE, RAYMOND G. P has ed 5/31/2009

LEMONE, MARGARET A. P has ed 12/25/2009

Summary

• Continued augmentation of EOL (HAIS)• Increased climate and weather modeling• Initiated new diversity program• Enhanced the central visitor program• Began Earth System Modeling strategic initiative• Augmented CISL supercomputing fund• Sub-inflationary base budgets elsewhere• Slowed rejuvenation program (temporary)

Discussion

NCAR All Funds Summary

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07

$ x 1,000

NSF BASE (Target) STRAT INITIATIVES OPP FUNDS USWRP OTHER BASE TRSF NON-NSF (exp) NSF SPEC (exp)

HIAPER

FY07 expenses are assumed level at this time.

NCAR MTDC, Laboratory and Directorate Indirects% Expenses to MTDC

Actuals 2000 - 2006; 2007 Rate Submission

14.4%14.7%14.6%12.6%12.6%12.0%12.7%12.5%

2.3%2.2%2.4%2.2%2.3%2.1%2.0%1.9%

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Rate Sub

MTDC NCAR Lab Ind Director Indir

Difference of MTDC Rate Submission to Actual

(2,000)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

$ 000 Change

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

%Change

_ $ Actual from RS _ % Actual from RS

Laboratory IC Spending Trends: Actual Vs. Rate Submission

1,790,502140,720764,985

-2.5%

9.1%1.5%

18.0%-0.9%

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Rate Sub Actual IC

764,985

140,720

1,790,502

(204,967)

(113,910)

Note: FY07 represents preliminary targets & partial transfers

Facilities & Science Targets* Compared to CPI Inflation

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

33,000

35,000

37,000

39,000

41,000

43,000

45,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Facilities Target

Facilities in CPI Dollars

ScienceTarget

Science in CPI Dollars

* Includes Directorate Transfers

# of NCAR Total Non-Base Proposal Submissions by FY

117103

144132

157

186

157

185

244

183

246

276

253

294

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Fiscal Year

# of Proposals

Note: Includes no-cost proposals, yet excludes proposals that have been voided or withdrawn.

251% Increase

from 1993

FY 2008 Proposed NSF Base Directorate Transfers

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

DIR E&O CISL ESSL EOL RAL SERE

Director Reserves

Diversity Funds

Opportunity Funds

USWRP

Strategic Initiatives

Director Research

Scientist I

Aircraft Reserves

NSF Fee

Visitor Program

Support for ISS-GAUS, S-Pol and HAIS

Graph 2. Non-NSF Proposed University Collaborators FY 1997 - 2006

0

50

100

150

200

250

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Fiscal Year

# of Collaborators

* This graph has been updated to reflect university collaborators on proposed non-NSF funding.

NCAR Total Proposals Awarded vs. DeclinedFY 1998 - 2006

97 97 96

125

94

133 131

107 108

80

4763

105

74

102121

10690

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 * 2006

Fiscal Year

Number of Proposals

NCAR Awards NCAR Declines

55% Win

67% Win

60% Win

54% Win

56% Win

57% Win

Note: Excludes MOU's and zero $ proposals.

Excludes proposals that are still pending or

have been voided or withdrawn.

52% Win

* FY 2006 has 63 proposals still under review,

therefore they are not yet awarded or declined.

50% Win

NCAR Total Non-Base Proposal Submissions

$ Amount Proposed

0

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

150,000

Fiscal Year

$ Amount Proposed

'000

$ Amount '000 125,171 38,161 51,190 108,098 75,731 142,442 98,709 86,890

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Total $ Amount Proposed by Fiscal Year to Total $ Amount Awarded by Proposal Number

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005

Total $ Amount Proposed Total $ Amount of Approved Awards by Proposal Number

$ x 1,000

NCAR Total Non-Base Proposal SubmissionsTotal $ Amount Proposed and Total $ Amount Proposed

for Subawards

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

FY 2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005

$ Amount Proposed $ Amount for Subawards