City Scenario Applications in EMME : Earthquake Model of Middle East

Understanding Risk Forum, 30 July – 4 July 2014, London,UK

EMME - EARTHQUAKE MODEL OF THE MIDDLE EAST REGION

Regional Application of GEM (Global Earthquake Model)

TurkeyCyprusLebanonJordanIranIraqPakistanAzerbaijanArmeniaGeorgia

EMME PROJECT MODULES AND WORKFLOW

CITY SCENARIO APPLICATIONS OF EMMEIn the content of “City Scenario” application of EMME, deterministic seismic risk assessment methodology has been applied associated with specified earthquake scenarios.

Scenario assessments has been conducted for calibration / validation purposes for selected cities (such as Istanbul) for which inventory, site condition and vulnerability information are available.

Following the evaluation process, Mashhad, Iran, Gulshen-Karachi, Pakistan, Irbid, Jordan, Tbilisi, Georgia, Yerevan, Armenia and Tyr City, Lebanon proposals have been selected as city scenairo applications within WP5 activities.

Mashhad is the capital of Khorasan Ravazi province, located 850km Northeast of Tehran with an area of 650km2.Mashhad with around 700,000 dwelling provides accommodation for 2.8 Million resident and more than 25 Million pilgrims of Holy Shrine of Imam Reza each year.

MASHHAD CITY SCENARIO (IRAN)

The loss estimation for the Gulshan-e-Iqbal Town of Karachi is conducted for five possible earthquake scenarios. The town has an area of about 65 sq. km. and comprises of 13 Union Councils. The building and lifeline inventory is developed for the town and the fragility curves are developed the buildings, bridges and pipelines.

GULSHAN CITY SCENARIO (PAKISTAN)

PGA map for 50 years return period PGA map for return period of 100 years

PGA map for return period of 475 years PGA map for return period of 1000 years

PGA Distribution Building Typology

GULSHAN CITY SCENARIO (PAKISTAN)Distribution of Damaged Buildings [TOTAL] (Mod + Ext + Com)

Total of: 20

66 60' E 67

30' E

25 00' N

0 10 20 30 km10

ELER v3.0 0.00.20.30.50.60.80.91.11.21.41.5

Distribution of Pipeline Repairs [TOTAL]Total of: 84

66 60' E 67

30' E

25 00' N

0 10 20 30 km10

ELER v3.0 0.00.10.30.40.50.60.80.91.01.21.3

Damage distribution of a) buildings, b) bridges and c) pipelines

a b

c

Irbid city is a hub of educational, economic and commercial activities in north Jordan; therefore it was vital to accurately examine the extent of earthquakes risk. The population of the city is about 317,000, which occupy 29,351 buildings as of 2011 according to authors' projection.

IRBID CITY SCENARIO (JORDAN)

Vs30 Distribution Building Damage Distirbution

Yerevan, home to 40 percent of Armenians, is in one of the highest seismic risk areas; a recent analysis of Yerevan building stock revealed that an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 or greater would destroy most buildings. This confirms the consequences of the Spitak earthquake (1988, M = 6.9), which showed a low earthquake resistance of buildings built in the former Soviet Union

YEREVAN CITY SCENARIO (ARMENIA)

PGA Distribution Building Damage Distirbution

The primary scientific objective of the project was to combine analysis of the contemporary elements at risk inventories, seismicity and vulnerability to assess seismic hazard and seismic risk for the capital of Georgia – Tbilisi.

TBILISI CITY SCENARIO (ARMENIA)

PGA Distribution Building Damage Distirbution

The overall area of Tyr is 9.3 km2 while the populated area is 1.78 Km2 approximately, except for the Palestinian camps that were not included in the study. The populated area was divided into 19 blocks and a vulnerability survey was performed for buildings in these blocks .

TYR CITY SCENARIO (LEBANON)

Building Inventory DistirbutionBuilding Damage Distirbution

The city scenario activities summarized above has provided valuable results for the officials of the relevant municipalities.

CONCLUSION

The above mentioned activities can be updated based on the data provided in terms of building and population inventory.

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