city resilience strategy -...

City Resilience StrategySEMARANG’s adaptation plan in responding to climate change

Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN)

2010

TAHTA together with CWG (City Working Group) of Semarang City would like to

express deep appreciation for the cooperation and trust given by Mercy Corps

Indonesia. This activity is one form of support to Semarang City as one of the pilot

cities in the ACCCRN (Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network) program,

which was initiated by the Rockefeller Foundation (RF) and ISET (Institute for Social

and Environmental Transformation).

This document is a plan for Semarang City in order to adapt to the pressures and

shocks that may occur as a result of climate change. This document is not exclusive

in the context of planning for the city because its formulation and format has been

synergized with the substances of Semarang’s Medium Term Development Plan

(RPJM). The final section of this document can be an inspiration for agencies in

Semarang City about how they can contribute to climate change adaptation activities.

This document is not a static document as this can be quickly adjusted with

additional scenarios that may occur.

City Working Group of Semarang CityHernowo B. Luhur (BAPPEDA) Budi Prakosa (BAPPEDA), Feri Prihantoro (BINTARI), Joko San-

toso (BAPPEDA), Rukuh Setiadi (UNDIP), Hernowo (BAPPEDA), Gunawan Wicaksono (BLH).

Contributor Team (Technical Team for Climate Adaptation of Semarang City):Abdul Azis (LEPAAS), Budi Satmoko Adji (BAPERMASPER & KB), Wahju Fadjar (BLH), Tri S. Hadi

(DinKes), Gatot Hardhiyanto (Dinas Kebakaran), Tjipto Hardono (PDAM), Nora M. Istini (BLH),

Sucahyo K (BAPPEDA), Miswan (Dinas Kebersihan), Pasimin (Dinas Pertanian), Moch. A. Roh-

matulloh (DTKP), Prof. Sri Mulyani E.S (UNNES), Purnomo D. Sasongko (BAPPEDA), Handojo

Setio (PT. Djarum), Suhardjono (PSDA), Siswanto (DKP), Djoko Suwarno (UNIKA), Anniesa D.

Sari (BINTARI), Yoppy (TAHTA).

For further contact information: Rukuh Setiadi (Department of Urban and Regional Planning. Diponegoro University)

[email protected]

This study is sponsored by: The Rockefeller Foundation with Technical Assistance from: ISET and MercyCorps Indonesia

2010

Table of Content

1. Introduction 1

1.1. Background 1

1.2. Goal 3

1.3. Objectives 3

1.4. Scope of Planning 3

1.5. City Resilience Strategy Planning Stages 5

1.5.1. Preparation. 5

1.5.2. Brainstorming 6

1.5.3. Consultation and Prioritization 6

1.5.4. Finalization of City Resilience Strategy Document 6

1.6. The CRS Document Organization 7

2. Semarang City’s Vulnerability 9

2.1. Climate Change Trend in Semarang City 9

2.1.1. Temperature 9

2.1.2. Rainfall 12

2.1.3. Increase in Sea Level Rise 14

2.1.4. Wind Pattern 16

2.2. Vulnerable Areas and Its Impact 18

2.2.1. Lowland Regions which are Exposed to Coastal Flood and SLR 19

2.2.2. Settlement Areas Located in Riverbed which are Exposed to Flooding 23

2.2.3. Hilly Areas which are Exposed to High Winds 24

2.2.4. Areas which are Exposed to Land Movement, Landslides, and Abrasion 25

2.2.5. Settlement Areas in Urban Fringe which Far away from Water Sources 27

2.2.6. Areas as a Node of Movement 28

2.2.7. Functional Areas of Central Business District 30

2.2.8. Industrial Areas 30

2.3. Vulnerable Groups 32

3. National and City Policy 35

3.1. National Policy to Respond Climate Change 35

3.2. Semarang City Development Policies 39

3.2.1. Direction and Long-term Development Priorities 39

3.2.2. Direction and Medium Term Development Priorities 41

3.3. Current Issues and Dynamics of Semarang’s Urban Development Activities 42

4. Scenario Development 44

4.1. Assumptions 44

4.2. Climate Change Scenario Development in Semarang City 45

4.2.1. Dry Season Scenario 45

4.2.2. Dry Season Scenario After Dam Development and Without Upstream Conservation 45

4.2.3. Dry Season Scenario After Dam Development With Upstream Conservation 46

4.2.4. Rainy Season Scenario 46

4.2.5. Scenario of Flooded Areas due to SLR 48

4.2.6. SLR Scenario with Variation Area of Mangrove Conservation 48

5. Strategy and Priority for Actions 50

5.1. Goals and Strategies for Climate Change Resilience 50

5.1.1. Water Sector Resilience Strategies 50

5.1.2. Infrastructure Sector Resilience Strategies 51

5.1.3. Environment Sector Resilience Strategies 52

5.1.4. Marine and Fisheries Sector Resilience Strategies 52

5.1.5. Human Resource Capacity and Institutional Strategies 53

5.2. Criteria for Resilience Strategy 54

5.3. Prioritization Process 58

5.4. Qualitative CBA and Prioritized Strategies 62

6. Implementation and M&E 65

6.1. Implementation and Funding Priority for Actions 65

6.2. Monitoring and Evaluation 67

Reference 69

Annex 1: Scenario Development 70

Annex 2: Concept Proposal of Prioritized Actions 72

1. Introduction

1.1. Background

A significant changing on the climate system that we presently experience is not only an argument.

Some evidence from observation and studies mainly conducted by the International Panel for

Climate Change (IPCC) has shown that increasing air and ocean temperatures, melting snow and

ice, and an increase in sea level is real. UNEP (2009) has published a document that summarizes the

important studies and the latest information from the IPCC on global climate change.

It is no doubt that climate change is happening right now as a result of human activity. However the

most significant human activity is the activity within the last 50 years all over the world. In that

period, natural causes such as solar radiation does contribute in increasing the temperature of the

earth's atmosphere. Unfortunately, scientific evidence shows that human activity is the major

contributors in comparison with natural causes and they should be responsible for global warming

(IPCC within UNEP, 2009). This warming is not only related to temperature but also causes extreme

changes in other aspects that have effects on humans.

As it has been shown in the Vulnerability Assessment, global warming is a real phenomenon in

Semarang City. Based on two scenarios, the city’s temperature showed an increasing trend so did

the seawater elevation. Changes in temperature also create opportunities for change in the intensity

of precipitation, especially during the rainy season, which is predicted to increase. This extreme

climate change can contribute to the occurrence of floods in Semarang City. Meanwhile, sea level

rise will exacerbate flooding problems and seawater inundation that already exist.

Besides flood and inundation as one of the most obvious form of climate change in Semarang City,

it has also been confirmed that climate change also increases the risk of landslides, drought, and

abrasion in a number of areas in the city.

SEMARANG City Resilience Strategy

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These catastrophic events, in a large scale, lead to a concern that it might affect the sustainability of

city development. In a smaller scale, the impact of climate change can happen on the community

groups in particular areas of the city, especially the poor and marginalized groups.

Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN) in Semarang City has exceeded a number

of milestone achievements. These achievements begin with the completion of vulnerability

assessment (VA), implementation of pilot projects for climate change adaptation and sector studies.

Prior to the implementation of climate change adaptation in the city scale, all these achievements

are very important to be studied more in depth and followed up through the preparation of City

Resilience Strategy (CRS). Therefore, the CRS document within the ACCCRN framework is a basic

foundation for the future intervention projects and activities to increase Semarang City’s resilience

to climate change.

Rockefeller and ISET (2010) define resilience as the ability of a system to withstand from any

pressures and shocks and a system's ability to maintain its function. The city is a system that must be

made resistant (resilience). Resilience and adaptation are very important because of the vulnerability

of urban systems. As a system, the city consists of several regions (sub- systems) that each of them

has different functions and elements. As a system, each sub-system was connected to each other

and together creates a functioning city. An extreme damage to one of the sub-urban system or one

part of urban areas will be able to affect other sub-systems, even the overall system. Basically, A

resilient system is expected to maintain the resilience of the city's main functions of the various

forms of pressure and shock resulting from the impacts of climate change. The resilient system also

allows the city to make a quick recovery from such impact.

From practical perspective, CRS document can also be viewed as a roadmap to prepare the city in

dealing with the worst scenario which may arise from climate change. Without the resilience

strategy document, the functions of urban systems and vulnerable group will be threatened.


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1.2. Goal

The purpose of the CRS document of Semarang City is to produce a number of strategies to cope

with climate change impacts that will be integrated into urban development policy.

1.3. Objectives

To produce the above strategy, the following are a number of targets to be achieved:

1. Identifying the existing conditions of climate change impacts, vulnerability, and vulnerable

groups in Semarang City

2. Developing urban development and climate change scenario and their consequences on the

future

3. Formulating resilience strategies at city level in a multi-dimensional perspective

4. Translating strategies into several adaptation actions to enhance resilience

5. Prioritizing adaptation activities and preparing draft proposal of the prioritized actions.

1.4. Scope of Planning

The coverage of city resilience strategy (CRS) will include:

First, a review on the results of studies of climate change impacts and vulnerability (VA) of Semarang

City. The review would be sharpened by further discussion on current issues of city planning and

development, which is dynamics and keep changing. Therefore, the review of climate change and

vulnerability will be focussed continue to see its relevance to current issues and emerging

development plan in the city of Semarang.

Second, formulating a series of resilience actions or intervention strategies. This is the most

important part of the whole process. In this formulation, every single actions will be assessed: (a)

their contribution qualitatively or quantitatively in creating resilience of the city, (b) their benefits for


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vulnerable groups, (c) the role of government and stakeholders to support, and (d) their association

with other activities.

Third, prioritization of intervention strategies and resilience actions. The prioritization includes a

comparison of every single the activities or strategies with a set of agreed prioritization criteria. The

strategies and actions that have been prioritized is equipped with a draft proposal and their

monitoring and evaluation mechanisms. Table 1.1 below will give a systematic explanation of the

scope of CRS document preparation.

Table 1.1: CRS Document Scope

Scope 1: Scope 2: Scope 3: Scope 4:

Review of Climate

Impacts Assessment and

Vulnerability

Strategy Formulation &

Proposed Action Plans

Prioritization of Action

plans

Annex Draft Proposal

Synthesis document's

ACCCRN (VA, CBVA,

Sector Studies, Pilot)

Additional issues of

SLDs

The actual and dynamic

issues in urban

development

Supporting studies

Development of climate

and city scenarios

Produce the series of

activities to create

resilience

Assess the contribution

the proposed activities

Identify benefits for

vulnerable groups

Role of stakeholders

Development of

prioritization

criteria

Comparative analysis of

the proposed activities

Identify of complementary

activities and actors

Development of M &E

mechanisms

Outline budget of the

prioritized activities

Preparation of timeline

Establishment of a

leading agency /sector

Source: Rockefeller Foundation and ISET (2010)


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1.5. City Resilience Strategy Planning Stages

The methodology developed in the preparation of CRS document in Semarang City is not different

from the method that has been developed by the Rockefeller Foundation and ISET (2010). However,

a little simplification was applied to adjust with the development planning process and realities that

took place locally. Firstly, the process began with the preparation phase and was followed by

brainstorming stage. The next stage was consultation and prioritization. Finally, the stage was ended

up with the preparation of documents and draft proposals. The general approach in the preparation

of the CRS of Semarang can be explained as follows:

1.5.1. Preparation.

This stage is similar to 'plan for planning’. This phase includes efforts to bridge the gap of perception

and knowledge among the City Working Group (CWG) and between CWG and the Technical Team

(City Team) on ClimateChange Adaptation of Semarang. Besides, this early stage also begins with

the gathering of support and synchronization with the preparation of City’s Mid-term Development

Plan 2010-2014.

This activity is conducted through a workshop to conduct a comprehensive review on the results of:

(1) SLD; (2) VA, (3) Sector Studies and (4) lesson learn from the Pilot Projects. Besides, the workshop

also examines the trend of development and urban planning that will affect on the adaptation

strategies and actions. The participant of this workshop was CWG and City Team. This workshop also

introduced the participant about the city resilience concept and practice and its formulation

process.

From this workshop the knowledge gap between the CWG and the city team was minimized and

the contribution of each party in CRS preparation context was clarified. At this stage,

communication and coordination with the City Mid- term Development Plan’s drafting team was

also conducted through several of informal workshops meeting.


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1.5.2. Brainstorming

The second activity is an activity that is dedicated to develop resilience strategies. In general, city

resilience can be achieved by various activities adaptation, both physically or non physically and of

various dimensions such as infrastructure, environmental, socio-economic, or institutional. However,

to be relevant and have a strong base, the formulation of adaptation strategies and actions should

be based on the results of climate scenarios. Therefore, the activity is manifested in a series of

brainstorming workshops. In the first series, the aim of workshop was to develop climate scenarios.

The scenario was linked with the tendency of urban development in Semarang City. The second

series, the workshop aimed to formulate a strategy and action in multi- sector resilience based on

previous generated urban and climate scenarios.

1.5.3. Consultation and Prioritization

The third activity, consultation and prioritization, is intended to verify the formulated adaptation

strategies and actions to improve city resilience. This phase also included several workshops. In

prioritizing the adaptation strategies to climate change, Qualitative Methods Cost and Benefit

Analysis was applied. Besides, this stage is also intended to gain legitimacy from the target groups

and to get a further operational input from expert in each prioritized strategies or actions.

1.5.4. Finalization of City Resilience Strategy Document

This phase is the last technical activities within the CRS preparation framework in Semarang City. The

proposed strategies and action to resilience is integrated with the normative mid-term

development planning documents (RPJMD) in term of its format or association with other grand

strategy in the normative document. The proposed strategies and actions consider their consistency

with other documents (such as RTRW City). It is expected that the CRS document does not collide

each other and then can be used by government agencies in the translating the CRS into of annual

activities. In finalizing this draft proposal also included the preparation of a strategy or action

adaptation increased durability. In this stage, a concept proposal of prioritized strategies and actions

is developed as a complement of CRS document. The concept proposal can be detailed as a

proposal that may be filed by various parties involved in the preparation of the CRS from local


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government, central, and international donors. The concept proposal will include prioritized

activities, budget requirements, timeline or work schedule, and responsible parties (PIC). Thus,

resilience strategy will consist of a series adaptation of action and come with priority adaptation

action proposals. And no less important, urban resilience strategy is a document that can connect

and coordinate additional activities to donor funding. From the above explanation, the stages of

preparation of the CRS in the city of Semarang can be illustrated in Figure 1.1 below.

Figure 1.1: Approach to Development of CRS in Semarang City

PREPARATION

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1.6. The CRS Document Organization

The CRS document of Semarang City consists of 6 Chapters. After this introduction the second

chapter contains the description of Semarang vulnerability to climate change in which would


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include climate change scenarios in the city, its impact on the internal system of the city, and

description of vulnerable groups. Furthermore, the third chapter of this report will describe the

direction and policy development within the city that includes the existing policy in response to

climate change impacts and issues of actual and dynamics of development as the basis for the

development of Semarang city scenario.

The fourth chapter describes the development of climate scenarios and scenario development of

Semarang. From the development of this scenario, a synthesis process is conducted to determine

sectoral coverage of issues related to climate change in the city of Semarang. The fifth chapter

contains the translation of resilience strategies and actions derived from the development scenarios.

The detailed elaboration of proposed strategies and actions are grouped by related sectors and

followed by prioritization. The last chapter contains a framework for implementation and monitoring

and evaluation of the proposed resilience strategies and actions.


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2. Semarang City’s Vulnerabil ity

2.1. Climate Change Trend in Semarang City

Climate change trend in Semarang will be evaluated from some climate features such as

temperature, rainfall, seawater elevation, and wind patterns. This trend is based on the vulnerability

assessment (VA) report and it is also supported from climate change studies in the north coastline of

Java (DKP, 2008).

2.1.1. Temperature

Based on the CRU TS2.0 temperature data extracted for Semarang, CCROM-IPB (2010) found the

increasing trend of mean temperature in each season in the last 100 years (Figure 2.1). In the wet

season (DJF), the mean temperature increased from 25.9 to 26.3 degree C, while in the dry season

(JJA) it increased from 25.3 to 26.3 degree C.

Figure 2.1: Average Temperature in Semarang City 1902-2002 (CCROM-IPB, 2010: 44)


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The increasing trend is also related to the presence of increase in daily maximum temperature

trends (Figure 2.2). In the wet season (DJF) the maximum temperature increased from 31.4-31.9

degree C; while in the dry season it increase from 31.2 to 32.2 degree C. In addition, it is found that

the daily temperature range (DTR) showed a downward trend (Figure 2.3) indicating that the

increase of daily minimum temperature is more rapidly occurred than the maximum temperature.

Figure 2.2: Average of Maximum Temperature in Semarang City 1902-2002 (CCROM-IPB, 2010: 45)

Gambar 3.9.

Figure 2.3: The Decreasing Trend of DTR (Daily Temperature Range) in Semarang (CCROM-IPB, 2010: 42)


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Figure 2.4: The Increasing Trend of Temperature in Semarang City (DKP, 2008)

Gambar 4.1.6 Temperatur rata – rata bulanan di wilayah Semarang, Prov. Jawa Tengah

!"%

!&%

!'%

!(%

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)*#"+$

Y = 0,0017X + 27,16

R² = 0,066

Another study from DKP (2008) shown that in the last 30 years, the monthly average temperature in

the Semarang Region can be seen in Figure 2.4. The figure shows that monthly average temperature

from 1977 to 2007 increased slightly and quite significant. Linear equations obtained from the graph

is Y=0.0017 X + 27.16 (where x = month x starting from January 1977). From this equation it can be

seen that the increase in average monthly temperature for 3 last decade is about 0.62 C or 0.02

degree C annually. Changes in air temperature in the Semarang Region is expected to increase, even

for 100 years prediction air temperature in this region will rise 2.7 degree C from 2007 temperature.

Meanwhile, studies conducted by CCROM-IPB (2010) mentions that the increase in temperature is

estimated to range between 0.5-0.7 degree C in 2025; between 1.1-1.2 C degree in 2050, and

between 1.9-2.9 C degree in 2100. These prediction are relative to temperature in 2002. There is a bit

difference between in the analysis of temperature change scenarios. Changes in temperature as

indicated on the following table will lead some others changes in precipitation intensity, especially

during the rainy season which is predicted to increase.


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Table 2.1: Temperature Scenario inSemarang City (CCROM IPB, 2010)

2000 2025 2050 2100

SRESA2: moderate 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.9

Range 0.15-0.25 0.3-0.7 0.8-1.6 2.0-4.1

SRESB1: moderate 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.9

Range 0.15-0.25 0.5-0.9 0.7-1.6 1.2-2.27

2.1.2. Rainfall

Based on 100 years rainfall CRU TS2.0 dataset, it is known that rainfall in Semarang City and number

of rainy days is very volatile. However, in general it is known that rainfall increased in its intensity on

the wet season (SON and DJF). In DJF, the seasonal rainfall increased approximately from 950 to 1000

mm, while in SON it increased from 250 to 300 mm (see figure 2.5). The upward trends of rainfall

during wet seasons (SON and DJF) are associated with increasing trends of wet days frequency at

the same seasons, from 44 to 47 days in SON and from 67 to 68 days in DJF (see figure 2.6). This

indicates that the increasing rainfall during 20th century over Semarang city is caused by the rains

that came more often, raising the probability of floods in the region.

In contrast, a downward trend appears in dry season (MAM), indicating a decrease of wet days

frequency from 70 to 67 days that is associated with greater chance of dry season that comes earlier

(see figure 2.5 and 2.6). For the wet days frequency during JJA, the trend seems to be relatively flat at

40 days with a slight increase.

CCROM-IPB (2010) also provides threshold analysis of rainfall of Semarang City and concluded that

the flooding would occur if rainfall is 302 mm or above, while drought will happen if rainfall is less

than 84 mm. Unfortunately, a future projection on rainfall and the number of wet days is not

available in Semarang City. This report then assumed that the dry season will increase one month

longer than the trend and the rainy season will increase up to 2 months longer than the current

trend.


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Figure 2.5: Trends of Seasonal Rainfall in Semarang City (CCROM IPB, 2010: 42)

Gambar 3.5.

Figure 2.6: Trends of Seasonal Wet Days Frequency in Semarang City (CCROM, 2010: 43)

Gambar 3.6


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2.1.3. Increase in Sea Level Rise

The elevation of Semarang seawater continued to rise from 1985 until the year 2008 (Figure 2.7). Sea

level rise in Semarang Coast from the year 1985-1998 is 58.2 cm, with an average annual sea level

rise at 4.47 cm/ year (DKP, 2008). Later in the year 1998-2003 sea level decreased. But the declining in

sea level that occurred from the years 1998-2003 are considered not valid due to the instrument

failure (DKP, 2008). Based on water level data from year 2003-2008 it was known that sea level trend

turned high again (Figure 2.7). While for sea level rise in Semarang waters year 2003 -2008 is 37.2 cm,

the average sea level rise per year is 7.43 cm/ year (DKP, 2008).

In order to know the level of sea level rise due to the influence of global warming in Semarang, the

difference between the rise sea water with a total value of land subsidence on the location of tidal

stations were calculated. Data of sea level elevation sea years 1985-1998 and 2003-2008 were used.

The calculation of sea level rise due to global warming by considering the reduction of land

subsidence is about 5.165 cm/ year, so rising sea levels due to global warming is about 7.8 mm/year.

Figure 2.7: Sea Elevation in Semarang City 1985-2008

Source: Bakosurtanal Data analyzed by DKP (2008)


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Meanwhile, the vulnerability assessment (VA) estimates that the average increase in sea level

elevation will approximately at 21 cm in 2050, and 48-60 cm in 2100. Here is a table of climate

change scenarios obtained previously from the VA in Semarang City (CCROM IPB, 2010).

Table 2.2: Sea Level Rise Scenario in Semarang City (CCROM IPB, 2010)

2000 2025 2050 2100

SRESA2: moderate 2 10 21 60

Range 0-4 4-20 9-41 15-112

SRESB1: moderate 2 10 21 48

Range 0-4 4-22 9-42 18-85

Source: CCROM-IPB (2010)

Estimation made by DKP slightly more pessimistic than the estimation of CCROM-IPB, with the SLR

difference about 20 cm in 100 years to come. However, DKP provides more complete spatial analysis

information about the consequences of such changes. With the estimated level rise sea water of 0.8

m for the next 100 years, the estimated sea water inundation in Semarang City will reach distances

ranging from 1.7-3.0 km to the ground, where the total inundated area will up to 8537.9 ha.

Figure 2.8 (a): Sea Water Inundation in Semarang City in The Next 100 Years with SLR Estimation at 80 cm


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Figure 2.8 (a) shows a

simulation of sea water

inundation over next 100

years in Semarang City.

The dark blue color in

the eastern and western

part of city represents 20

cm inundation. The dark

blue color becomes

lighter overtime. The

lightest represents 80

cm inundation. The blue

gradation in between

represents 40 cm and

60 cm sea water inunda-

tion

Figure 2.8 (b): Sea Water Inundation in Semarang City in the Next 100 Years with SLR Estimation at 80 cm

Source: DKP (2008)

2.1.4. Wind Pattern

Study of DKP (2008) mentioned that the average distribution of wind direction in Semarang City

from 1977 to 2008 was not dominated by a particular direction because the percentage wind

distribution is almost the same (for wind direction mostly from the Northwest, North, East and

Southeast). The wind speeds from 1980 to 2008 ranged between 1-3 m / s (75.2%). In addition, DKP

(2008) divides the season in Semarang City into 4 seasons, namely West season, Transition season 1,

East season and Transitional season 2. During the West season the domination of wind coming from

the west-northwest direction and with speeds between 1-3 m/sec (70%). In Transition season 1, the

largest direction of the wind coming from the North, East and Southeast with the average wind

speeds between 1-3 m / s (70.7%).


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Figure 2.8 (b) illustrates

the projections of the

range of pressure from

sea level rise to Sema-

rang City areas. The

range is between 1.7

km (the shortest) in the

north eastern part of

city and 3.2 km (the

furthest) in the northern

of Semarang.

Figure 2.9: Data of Wind Speed in Semarang City 1994-1999 (CCROM IPB, 2010)

Gambar 3.2.

Source: CC-ROM, 2010: 39


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In East season, the domination of winds blow from the East and Southeast. Wind blowing to

eastward is faster than the wind that comes from Southeast direction. The average wind speed is

vary between 1-3 m/ s (77.9%). In transition season 2, the condition is almost the same with

transition season 1, however the largest distribution of the wind coming from four directions namely

North West, North, East and Southeast. The range of average wind speeds at 1-3 m / s (78.4%). In

general there are no significant changes in term of wind patterns in Semarang City, where the

domination of winds direction from the year 1977-2008 is from the East and Southeast.

Besides the influence of extreme climatic events caused by climate variability between years, the

Semarang City is also influenced by extreme weather conditions, like high winds. Based on data

record collected daily from the weather station and Ahmad Yani Airport in Semarang, CCROM IPB

(2010) states that the extreme wind speeds tend to occur locally (Figure 2.9). At the Semarang

station, extreme wind speed above 60 km / h (17.2 m / s or 62 km / h) occurred on June 15, 1994,

while the highest wind speed at station Ahmad Yani Airport occurred at 5 March 1995 (12.5 m / s or

45 km / h).

2.2. Vulnerable Areas and Its Impact

Community vulnerability assessment which has been done previously also indicated a number of

characteristics of vulnerable areas in Semarang City. Vulnerable areas and its possible impacts can be

grouped as follows (Mercy Corps, 2009):

1. Lowland regions which are exposed to coastal flood and sea level rise

2. Settlement areas located in riverbed which are exposed to flooding

3. Hilly areas which are exposed to high winds

4. Areas which is exposed to land movement and landslides

5. Neighborhood residential areas on the city outskirts which far away from water sources


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In addition to above categories, there are other areas that are important to consider as a vulnerable

area since they has a broad impact on Semarang City. These categories include (Setiadi and Kunarso,

2009):

6. Areas as a node of movement (Such as airports, seaports, train stations, and terminal)

7. Functional central business district (with emphasis on the areas of business, trade and industry)

8. Historical area and cultural assets (old town area of Semarang)

The following is the explanation of each categorization of the above vulnerable areas .

2.2.1. Lowland Regions which are Exposed to Coastal Flood and SLR

Neighborhood residential located in coastal areas which are threatened by inundation as a result of

sea level rise have nearly 300 thousand inhabitants. It is estimated that the total area which will be

flooded is approximately 7,500 hectares. The following table presents sub-districts and the total area

in each district that will be flooded due to sea level rise:

Table 2.3: Estimation of Residential Areas that will be Flooded by SLR

District Sub-District Area (Ha) % Area of

District

GenukTrimulyo, Terboyo Wetan, Terboyo Kulon, Muktiharjo Lor,

Genuksari, Gebangsari, Bangetayu Kulon1892.4 1.65

Tugu Mangkang Kulon, Mangunharjo, Jerakah, Tugurejo 1952.1 0.56

Semarang Utara

Panggung Lor, Panggung Kidul, Bulu Lor, Purwosari,

Plombokan, Bandatharjo, Kuningan, Dadapsari, Tanjung

Emas, Plombokan, Panggung Kidul,

1481.2 4.95

Semarang BaratKarang Ayu, Tawangsari, Tawang Mas, Gisikdrono, Krobokan,

Tambakharjo, Krobokan, 1287.1 2.22

Gayamsari Kaligawe, Tambak Rejo, Sawah Besar 257.3 0.98

Semarang

TimurKemijen, Mlatibaru 184.7 0.23


19

District Sub-District Area (Ha) % Area of

District

Pedurungan Muktiharjo Lor, Muktiharjo Kidul 431.7 0.12

Semarang

TengahPandansari, Purwodinatan 280.1 0.13

TOTAL 7487 10.85

Source: Setiadi and Kunarso (2009).

Similarly, fishpond areas in Semarang City will be flooded as a result of sea level rise. 44.5 hectares of

fishpond areas in Semarang City is expected to have stagnant water. It is also possible that the

fisheries sector of Semarang City will experience a decline in production. The decrease of production

in the fisheries sector will have a derivative impact on population livelihood especially fish farmers.

Today approximately 2,500 inhabitants (not including dependent family members) who have

livelihoods as fish farmers would be threatened with losing their jobs in the future. Information on

the number of people displaced due to sea level rise are not available. However, migration data in

the last five years showed a decreasing number of net migration in the inundated areas.

Figure 2.10: Net Migration in Coastal Areas (Year 2003-5 and 2007-8)

!"###$

!%##$

#$

%##$

"###$

"%##$

&###$

&%##$

"$ &$ '$ ($ %$

)*+,$"$ )*+,$&$ )*+,$'$

Source: Setiadi and Kunarso (2010)


20

Figure 2.10 shows a decreasing trend in the

net migration of the areas of Semarang City

that are potential to inundation due to SLR.

Unit data at sub-district level from BPS

(2003-2008) were used to develop this fig-

ure. Zone 1 consists of some sub-district

that is currently inundated, while zone 2 and

3 consist of sub-district that will be flooded

by SLR in the medium (at 35 cm SLR) and

long term (at 65 cm SLR) respectively. Since

2005 (axis 3) the net migration decreased

indicating that less people come to the ar-

eas. It also possible to say that the areas

have not attracting for migration anymore.

Even in some sub-districts have negative

net-migration.

Figure 2.11: The Impact of SLR in Semarang City


21

An economic valuation study on the impact of SLR in general has been carried out by the Marine

and Fisheries Ministry or DKP (2008). A more detailed economic valuation study on the impact of SLR

and flooding in dense residential areas of Semarang has been done by the BINTARI foundation

(2007) and it is then updated by the Sectoral Studies Mercy Corps (2010). Table below summaries

the economic loss as a result of sea level rise and flooding in Semarang City.

Table 2.4: Economic Valuation of Coastal Degradation (DKP, 2008)

Type of Activities Impact Economic Loss (IDR)

Mangrove Ecosystem Hectare 729,351,612*

Fishponds 2,889 Hectare 110,937.600

Rice Fields 902 Hectare 29,221,560,000

Settlements 10,425 Houses 208,500,000.000

Infrastructure 2.27 Km 5,602,961,405

Note: * calculated from the total economic value (Per Ha/Year)

Table 2.5: Annual Average Economic Loss Each Respondent due to Flood and SLR in Kemijen Sub-district

Assessment Aspects Year 2007 (IDR) Year 2010 (IDR)

Housing 5,000,000 5,004,000

Productivity 1,000,000 10,800,000

Education 0 1,110,000

Health 0 1,440,000

TOTAL 6,000,000 18,354,000

Source: Bintari (2007) and PLRT FT UNDIP (2010)


22

The economic loss of education and health had not been emphasized by 2007 study but it is in 2010 sector study. In the later study, eco-

nomic loss of education sector is calculated from the disfunction of school properties and additional transport cost to children who study

outside of Kemijen Sub-district. The economic loss of health sector is counted from the people expenses to medical service following the

flooding. The loss of productivity is calculated from the direct income loss due to flooding. The differences of economic loss due to the num-

ber of days off as a result of flooding increased significantly. On the other hand, the average income of people in Kemijen is relatively stag-

nant.

2.2.2. Settlement Areas Located in Riverbed which are Exposed to Flooding

Residential areas located in flood plains areas are also classified as areas vulnerable. The following

figure is the map of settlements around the banks of the major rivers in Semarang City.

Figure 2.12: Residential Areas in Riverbed of Semarang City


23

2.2.3. Hilly Areas which are Exposed to High Winds

As a result of extreme weather, high winds also often provide a serious threat to Semarang City.

There is no accurate record of the intensity of this event. However, strong winds incident was

encountered by some sub-district in the hilly area of Tembalang District, such as Sendangguwo,

Bulusan, and Tandang. On the other hand, high winds in the lowland areas have occurred in

Tugurejo Sub-district, Tugu District and Tanjung Mas Sub-district in North Semarang District.

However, the most intense incident located at Tandang Sub-district.

Figure 2.13: Areas Prone to High Winds in Semarang City


24

2.2.4. Areas which are Exposed to Land Movement, Landslides, and Abrasion

A more intense rainfall in the wet season due to climate change could exacerbate the possibility of

land movements and landslide in some hilly areas of Semarang City, while the wave circulation leads

to abrasion in western part of coastal areas. The following figure shows areas of Semarang City

which are prone to soil movement, landslides, and abrasion based on a study that have been

conducted by CCROM IPB (2010).

Figure 2.14: Area Prone to Land Movement, Landslide, and Abrasion

The result of sector studies (FT PLTR UNDIP, 2010) recommend a specific site which are crucial to be

managed to deal with catastrophic landslide. These locations are priority to handle because: (1) the


25

settlements have a slope above 25%, (2) at the same time they do not have an appropriate drainage

network, and (3) the location itself is in the high vulnerability category based on the VA study. The

following map is the specific site in question.

Figure 2.15: Highly Prioritized Areas to be Managed in Dealing with Landslide (PLRT FT UNDIP, 2010)

!"#$"% &'()

*"+","- ./#012#"- .%23%24", ./-"-5"-"- 6%"2-",/ 72-510-5"-

8"90- :;;)

!"#$"% &'()< *"+","- ./#012#"- .%23%24", ./-"-5"-"- 6%"2-",/ 72-510-5"-

!"#$"% &'()

*"+","- ./#012#"- .%23%24", ./-"-5"-"- 6%"2-",/ 72-510-5"-

8"90- :;:<

!"#$"% &'()= *"+","- ./#012#"- .%23%24", ./-"-5"-"- 6%"2-",/ 72-510-5"-


26

2.2.5. Settlement Areas in Urban Fringe which Far away from Water Sources

CCROM IPB (2010) identified a number of Semarang City’s areas experiencing drought because they

are far away from water sources. The identification results can be seen from the following map.

Figure 2.16: Drought-Prone Areas in Semarang City


27

2.2.6. Areas as a Node of Movement

Transportation facilities which are vital to Semarang City such as Ahmad Yani Airport, Tanjung Mas

Harbor, Tawang Railway Station, and Terboyo Bus Terminal are located in potential-flooded areas.

Ahmad Yani Airport has experienced paralyzed in a day because of heavy rains that triggered

flooding on the runway. Tawang Railways Station also experienced the same story. This strategic

infrastructure, particularly Tawang Railway Station, Tanjung Emas Harbor, and Terboyo Bus Terminal

often suffered from flooding and high tide. These facilities are the pulse of the movement of people,

goods, and commodities that are vital to the urban economy. The following figure shows where one

of node movements areas in Semarang City threatened due to climate change .

Figure 2.17: A Railway Station which Located on Inundated and Flood Prone Areas

Source: DKP, 2008


28

Figure 2.18: Nodes of Movement which are Prone to Increasing of SLR


29

Sea-level rise has influence to the increasing of Wave Set-up and Wave Run-up contained in the

vertical sea wall port building (on the eastern part of Semarang’s west flood canal). Based on the

calculation of sea level rise average at of 8 mm/ year with 20 years simulation, 16 cm sea level rise

would increase the Wave Set-up and Wave Run-up at 4.1 cm or 10.59% and at 7.7 cm or 1.51%

respectively. In contrast, with the same assumption, there would be a decreasing in security factors

(FS) equal to 0.37 cm or 18.45%.

If it is calculated over the next 100 years when there is 80 cm sea level rise, Wave Set-up and Wave

Run-up will rise by 10 cm or 51.73% and at 1.6 m or 31.64% respectively, while safety factors will at

1.16 m or 57.67%. This means that the higher its SLR the greater both wave set-up and run-up, but

the lower its safety factor (DKP, 2008).

2.2.7. Functional Areas of Central Business District

The condition of seawater inundation in Semarang City has reached an alarming stage. Besides as

the impact of sea level rise, such condition is exacerbated by land subsidence. The inundation

infiltrate into the mainland through urban drainage networks, which their conditions are

unfavorable. The impact caused by seawater inundation is very broad such as: disruption of

industrial activities and regional markets. Inundation in Semarang City and its impact to functional

areas of central business district can be seen in Figure 2.19..

2.2.8. Industrial Areas

In the northern areas of Semarang city there are a number of industrial areas, particularly in District

Genuk and District Tugu. Based on projections of sea level rise, the industrial area will be flooded.

These industries consist of various kinds, ranging from household industries, small industries, to large

industrial companies. If these industrial areas flooded so it would result in some impacts, including

(Setiadi and Kunarso, 2009): (1) existing production activities will inhibited, (2) import-export

activities will be disrupted, (3) coastal areas are not attractive anymore as an interesting location for

investment , (4) reduced demand for labor in the industrial sector, and (5) regional income declining.

The industrial area that will be flooded approximately 108.2 Ha. Threatened industrial areas in the


30

northern part of Semarang due to rising sea levels also has an impact on livelihoods, especially those

who are working as laborers. In addition, the number of workers as industrial workers in the area will

be around 65,737 inhabitants. They are people who are vulnerable to loss their source of income

when their livelihood collapsed. In the long-run, this might decrease the city economic performance

and reduce the quality of life.

Figure 2.19: Semarang's Functional Areas which Threatened by Climate Change


31

Figure 2.20: Semarang’s Old Town which are Threatened as a Result of Climate Change

2.3. Vulnerable Groups

From the above explanation, it is clear that climate change is closely related to disasters such as

landslides, high winds, and drought. The rising sea levels and high precipitation followed by

flooding is not only result in physical impacts to the city, but also impact on social, economic,

cultural, and public health. The impacts may lead to ineffectiveness of government and community

investment in the region.


32

A number of vulnerable groups in Semarang City has been identified and they need to be

considered in the preparation of city resilience strategy. These vulnerable groups consist of (Mercy

Corps, 2009: 9-11):

• Urban poor residents. Urban poor residents are considered vulnerable since they often occupy

those areas of the city that are the most exposed to risk. Seeking areas which are inexpensive, easy

to occupy and close to employment opportunities the urban poor often are forced to settle in

places that are precarious, such as riverbanks, steep hillsides, beside train tracks, on abandoned

land or on unsuitable land (rubbish dump sites for example). Since there is often no legal

recognition of these settlements, or at the very least they are tolerated by city governments for

their temporary status, they occupy an ambiguous situation. They are not fully recognized and yet

they are allowed to remain, so few public investments are made and their vulnerability persists.

• Groups of families moved in government relocation programs. Government’s relocation

program in the past was not well prepared. Families who have been moved from one settlement

to another by government relocation programs are particularly vulnerable given the sudden

changes to their lives and the difficulty in restarting life in new surroundings. A number of people

who are currently living in Tandang and Sukorejo Sub-district are the example relocated

community as the government implemented major improvement on drainage system

(Semarang’s western flood canal). Often without access to jobs, little capital and having been

uprooted and dislocated from their previous communities, these communities often suffer

prolonged hardship in starting up their lives anew. As a result they live in precarious

circumstances, with little or no social safety net to support them if they fail to adjust to their new

communities.

• People who live in locations that will be the site of major infrastructure projects. Given the

continually development and demands of major infrastructure projects in Semarang-such as large

pumping facilities, dam, toll road, riverbank restoration, newly industrial and housing estate, etc-

continually create demand for areas of land for development. Cities continually are redeveloping

plots of land. Those who have settled on these lots often do not have legal tenure and little


33

recognition are vulnerable to being moved without just compensation or the opportunity to

negotiate a favorable outcome.

• Residents who depend on the industry in the lowlands. Those communities that are dependent

on specific industries, such as the port, fishing, and manufactures are vulnerable since they are

very reliant on jobs coming from that one sector. This is for two reasons: (i) if there was to be a

sudden change in the conditions of that market these communities are situated with few other

economic opportunities other than those providing advantages by their proximity to the sea. (ii)

Another reason is that they are not inclined to move their houses to safer areas despite them

draining their resources, because they depend so heavily upon a constant salary offered by the

industries related to the port and manufacture.

• Urban poor migrants. New arrivals to the city from the interior or other coastal areas are

vulnerable since they have few housing opportunities open to them other than precarious areas

which may otherwise not be occupied, or have an illegal status, but which are often in the most

vulnerable parts of the city.

• The elderly. A particular group that is vulnerable are the elderly since they are often unable or

unwilling to adapt to changes in their environment. Given adverse conditions such as flooding or

relocation for an infrastructure project the elderly are often resistant to changing their ives so

dramatically having gotten used to inhabiting one place, or are unable to adapt quickly to new

environments. Elderly who have no families or a support network to assist them are particularly

vulnerable.

• Families headed by women. Female headed families, either widowed women or single parent

households, carry a heavy burden of supporting children and the elderly and so are vulnerable to

sudden changes in livelihood, their surroundings and adverse weather conditions. They may have

difficulty with maintenance of housing or other manual labor which men are usually responsible

for, compromising their security.


34

3. National and City Policy

3.1. National Policy to Respond Climate Change

Climate change sectoral roadmap document or more known as The Indonesia Climate Change

Sectoral Roadmap (ICCSR) has been the main reference on national-wide policy in dealing with

climate change. The document advises National RPJM 2010-2014 and National RPJP until 2030. The

document emphasizes a number of challenges that arise over climate change in forestry, energy,

industry, agriculture, transportation, coastal area, waste, and health. Climate change adaptation

strategies are formulated mostly in agriculture, clean water, coastal, healthy than other sectors.

Table 3.1 The Direction of Adaptation Policies According to ICCSR

Sectors Policy Direction in Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

Agriculture On food crops and horticulture through: Improved management of water management, including systems

and irrigation networks; Development of water harvesting technologies (ponds, trench dams) and the

efficiency of water use such as irrigation drip and mulch; Development of species and varieties of plants

tolerant to environmental stresses such as increase in air temperature, drought, inundation (flooding), and

salinity; Development of soil management technologies and crops to improve crop adaptation, and

Development of farm protection system of failure due to climate change or weather crop insurance.

In plantation crops through: Development of commodity which can survive in stress drought and excess

water; Application of soil and crop management technologies to increase crop’s power adaptation;

Development of water-saving technology; Application of water management technologies, especially on

land prone to drought.

On farm management: Development of livestock more adaptable to extreme environments (such as

Drought, high temperature, inundation); Development of silage technology to cope with food shortages,

Seasonal Development of integrated crop-livestock systems (CLS) to reduce the risk of and optimizing the

use of land resources.


35


Health Strengthening early warning systems and emergency response in the community; Strengthen review on

vulnerability and risk assessment of the health sector due to climate change: Developing a policy

framework supported by legislation and regulation; Develop planning and evidence-based decision-

making areas; Improving cross-sectoral cooperation; Increase community participation, private and higher

education; Strengthen the ability of local governments; Development of networking and sharing of

information; and improve the quality and quantity of clean water and community sanitation.

Waste Carry out a more complete and perfect review of GHG inventory of waste sector to accompany a

systematic plan for GHG reduction; Applying environmentally sound waste management policies in the

field of infrastructure development supported by environmentally sound development and applied

technology research; Develop environmental policy implementation to the principle of 3R (reduce,

reuse,recycle) in waste management: Developing a sustainable infrastructure development (By balancing

three pillars of development, namely economic, social, and environmental) with reducing GHG emissions

(GHG) and increasing carbon sequestration; Conducting solid waste infrastructure development sector

that put concern the capacity of human resources and institutions including local government

competence and independence to promote environmentally sound infrastructure development and to

encourage the role of the private sector and communities; Develop waste management technologies that

are environmentally friendly and anticipative to climate change; Developing the application of EPR

(Extended Producer Responsibility) to hazardous waste producers and importers; Develop quality

improvement of landfills technology.

Marines In the group of inventory data and research activities include: Strengthening the capacity of research on

the phenomenon, hazards, and potential impacts of climate change; Strengthen the capacity of

adaptation and mitigation assessments more appropriately in accordance with the conditions of

vulnerability and local wisdom.

In the group of planning activities: Integrate climate change in planning documents and management of

maritime affairs and fisheries.

In the group of policies, regulations, and capacity building: The preparation of norms, standards and

guidelines adaptation and mitigation of climate change; Adjustment of regulations and activities related to

climate change; Accelerate regional head decision in the preparation of Strategic Planning Document

(RENSTRA) in Maritime Affairs and Fisheries has to consider climate change issues; Improved institutional

capacity and monitoring and control.

In groups of implementation activities: Adjustment strength of coastal structures, Maintenance and

rehabilitation of coastal ecosystems and small islands, Anticipating the sinking of small islands, especially

outermost Indonesian island, Developing disaster reduction and climate variability on the coast,

Anticipation of fishing ground’s shifting area towards the sea and their sustainability of fisheries production

capture, in anticipation to particular fish species that are not resistant to temperature changes.


36


Water

Resources

Carry out hazard assessment, vulnerability, climate change impacts on natural resources sector which is

more detailed; Increasing the capacity of data and information in term of national resources, including its

availability, needs, resources, and how residents obtain water through updates, upgrades, and providing

public access to data and information resources; Strengthen the capacity of water resources in order to

improve the situation of water supply; Increase or apply the concept of conjunctive use of surface water

potential of the area is less; Increase provision and public access to data and information concerning

water- related disasters and climate change such as floods, droughts, and landslides; setting (regulation)

of the Act further resources at the national level and areas that consider climate change issues; Set or

secure areas or water catchment or protection of water resources and protected areas of socialization and

adaptation to climate change campaigns water sector.

Energy Fuel pricing with more balanced (fair); Policy natural resource price of renewable energy; Requiring

renewable energy resources; Tax or carbon tax from fuel burning activities; Development of the fuel gas

supply infrastructure; introduction of new technologies and cleaner technologies using coal, and mixing

policy with biofuels

Industry Improving energy efficiency and energy diversification; Monitoring GHG emissions; Modification and

replacement of technology

There are two ways of funding in order to implement policies pointed out in the ICCSR into actions.

Firstly, the ICCSR policies will be funded by national government budget (APBN) after the polices are

elaborated as programs within national mid-term development planning (RPJMN). Still from the

same funding source, additionally the implementation of the ICCSR at city level is through a Special

Budget Allocation (DAK) mechanism from national ministries and departments to province

government before they forwarded to the city level. Semarang City so far received DAK from two

ministries namely environmental ministry (KLH) and marine and fisheries ministry (KKP).

Secondly, the ICCSR policies will be funded through the Indonesian Climate Change Trust Fund

(ICCTF) which are coordinated by Ministry of National Development/ National Development Board

(BAPPENAS). The ICCTF taps the funding and grants coming from donor agencies and APBN. It is

expected that the ICCTF can be accessed by any organizations, including local governments at city

level or local NGOs at the grassroots who are concern with climate change adaptation and

mitigation. Therefore, availability an organization at city level which specifically able to support local


37

government to transform ICCSR policies into action is imperative. While the former is basically a

formal mechanism, the later is more quick and flexible. Unfortunately, there are many critics on the

clarity of procedure to access the ICCTF.

Figure 3.1: ICCSR Implementation at National and City Level

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38

3.2. Semarang City Development Policies

As stipulated in law and national development planning system 25/2004, Semarang development

policies outlined in the document long-term development plan (RPJPD) and regional medium-term

development plan (RPJMD). Each of the documents described in the following sub-chapters.

3.2.1. Direction and Long-term Development Priorities

By reviewing documents RPJP Semarang City Year 2005-2025, the direction of Semarang city

development in recent decades to come might be outlined. Long-Term Development Plan of

Semarang City contains several strategic issues and expected conditions to Semarang city within

the next 25 years. The following table presents a concise direction and priorities of long-term

development plan.

Table 3.2: Review of Long-Term Development Plan (RPJP) Semarang City

PROGRAMS GOALS EXPECTED OUTCOMES

ECONOMY

Trade and Serv-

ices

Increasing the contribution of re-

sources trade to reach at 35.45%

in 2014

Increasing economic growth followed by com-

munity per capita income

Anticipating the impact of trade globalization,

which has impacts on the strict competition.

SMEs and Micro

Finance

Strengthen middle down economic

community

Finding the economic potential and

improve competitiveness of SMEs

Pressing the level of poverty in the community

who experience increase of 0.21% during 1993 -

2004 Promoting economically independent

community

Penetrate export markets and increase national

incomes

Investment Creating a conducive climate in-

vestment, ie mainly the protection

of investors and simplification of

bureaucracy for investment

Attract investors, both domestic and external

country because of security and convenience for

investing

Increasing economic growth

Industry Socializing environmentally friendly

industry/ Green industry

Building partnerships, capital-in-

tensive industry with a small indu-

stry to have mutual benefit

Social sensitivity to global warming and increa-

sed environmental health

Support the existence of small scale industries

with the partnership with large industry.

Contribute to economic growth which showed

positive trends 3.35% to 3.95% from 2000 to

2004


39


Employment Creating new jobs for growing la-

bor force.

Reducing the social gap

Pressing the crime rate caused by high unem-

ployment problems

Pressing the projected high rates of unemploy-

ment that will reach at 62.84% in 2025

Transportation Improving and optimizing the con-

ditions of damaged roads throug-

hout the 638,754 km of the total

road length reaches 2,762,731 km.

Achieve an effective and efficient transportation

system in accordance with the hierarchy and the

function of roads as well as the realization of

transportation system on land, sea and air in an

integrated way.

Realization of rapid and mass transportation

(mass and rapid transportation).

GOVERNANCE

Public Services Increasing public satisfaction on

government service by establishing

a unit integrated service (UPT),

standard applications of minimum

service, complaints and hotline

service to improve performance,

develop the quality of the bu-

reaucracy, develop infrastructure,

and create space for public partici-

pation.

Increased public confidence to the government

that can generate public support for government

programs

Law Improving the performance of law

enforcement and quality of regional

law.

Increasing law enforcement stability that can

support programs government programs.

INFRASTRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENTINFRASTRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENT

Spatial Planning The creation of structure and spa-

tial pattern effectively and efficiently

in accordance with hierarchy and

its development function

The harmony, sustainability and optimum utiliza-

tion of space in accordance with the potential

and carrying capacity of the region

Water Resources Support the sustainability of water resources for

urban activities

Drainage The creation of coherence in ma-

nagement of drainage from

upstream to downstream

Sustainable urban drainage system

Waste The integration of waste manage-

ment systems at urban scale

The sustainable urban waste management sy-

stem

Pollution Pollution management and en-

vironmental friendly development of

green open space system

Improving the quality of urban environment

Housing and

Settlements

Meeting the needs of housing qu-

antity and quality as population

grows

Management of a healthy housing environment

based on community


40


Public Facilities Meeting the needs of urban com-

munities and facilities

The provision of urban public facilitiescommuniti-

es and urban facilities that can support Sema-

rang City as a city of trade and metropolitan sca-

le services

HUMAN RESOURCESHUMAN RESOURCES

Health Improving community health status

through: Promotive, preventive and

curative activities

Creation of healthy environment

Support medical professionalism

Adequate health facilities and in-

frastructure

Development of the community

health care system

Increasing the degree of community quality of life

that can be seen in the following indicators:

Life Expectancy in 2025 will reach 75 years,rea-

ching 4.00 Infant Mortality / 1000 birth, maternal

mortality rate reached 42/100.000 give birth

Health care coverage to 100% of the total popu-

lation

Tourism and

Culture

Development of tourism as a ful-

fillment of community needs and

assets to create city’s magnet.

The development of local culture

as tourism potential

Development of tourism as a ful-

fillment

Increased contribution of tourism in the city eco-

nomy Preservation of local culture as an aspect

of community characteristics forming

Education Improving community awareness

for the importance of education for

the effort to improve quality of life

9 years mandatory up to secondary level for the

basic education level of Semarang community

Increased community participation to education

Achieving gross enrollment rate in each educa-

tion stage

By understanding the development of Semarang to come, it is hoped the strategy and climate

change adaptation action will be formulated remain synergistic and contributive within the

comprehensive urban development framework.

3.2.2. Direction and Medium Term Development Priorities

RPJP as a long-term development of plan has been translated into medium-term development plan

(RPJM). In this medium-term plan, issues and directions of development in every organization, which

cover different types of authorities is outlined.


41

The development of medium-term Plan 2010-2015 in Semarang was in progress, at the same time

with the preparation of the CRS. Therefore issues related to and strategies to deal with climate

change adopted from CRS was introduced in the preparation and the formulation of Semarang

City’s strategic issues and mission of Semarang City’s medium-term Development Plan. It is stated in

the medium-term development plan that: “environmental degradation and quality in Semarang are

exacerbated by the climate change and it is urgent for the local government institution to take

action in dealing with the climate change”.

3.3. Current Issues and Dynamics of Semarang’s Urban Development Activities

There are several development projects based in Semarang City, which is allegedly significant to

affect climate change adaptation activities. These projects are:

1. Kali Banger Polder Development Project, as a part of cooperation with the Dutch and funding

from JBIC (Japan Bank for International Cooperation). Polders Development expected to reduce

the pressure of floods in the Northern and Eastern Region of Semarang.

2. Jatibarang Reservoir and Dam Development, as a part of cooperation with JBIC (Japan Bank for

International Cooperation). The construction is expected to increase the supply of water in

responding to the increasing demand of clean water and to the possibility of shortfall especially

in the dry season.

3. Sea Embankment Construction. Sea dike will be stretched across the northern part of town. The

discourse on the construction of sea dikes is initiated by Semarang City Government. The dike is

proposed to deal with flooding and seawater inundation which had a long story that has not

handled thoroughly.

These three projects are to be regarded as the mega-project in Semarang City which should be

noted their existence in the analysis of development scenarios. The analysis of development

scenario will be presented in next chapter. The following figure is some components of Masterplan


42

Drainage which its implementation will have a positive contribution to deal with flooding and

seawater inundation.

Figure 3.2: Infrastructure Components Development Plan Drainage in Semarang City&!5!'%&0')$'3-!$%-!"!#!$%7!$,%')2!*%')(:.=)(%#0#')4%&(!0$!#)6%%

%

!"#$"% &'&( )*#+*,-, .%"/,"0- )*1" 2-#"%",3

Source: Semarang’s Masterplan Drainage in PLRT FT UNDIP (2010)


43

4. Scenario Development

4.1. Assumptions

The following points are the data and assumptions used to perform development climate scenarios

in Semarang City.

1. Area city of Semarang is 37,330 hectares (BPS), while the coastal area of Semarang is 4,575

hectares (DKP).

2. The rate of population growth for the projection is 1.2% (using the same rate used in Semarang’s

City Masterplan - RTRW) by using the model exponential estimates.

3. The intensity of the floods of 1989-2007 is 21 months, equivalent to 1.2 months per year or

equivalent with 36 days. Margin rainfall brought flooding are 302 mm/month (CC-ROM IPB,

2010). While the increase in the maximum rainfall was 50 mm/month. Number of months wet

and dry months based on CRU TS2.0 dataset analyzed by CCROM-IPB (2010)..

4. The basis data for the assumption of SLR in 50 years from now is SRESA B1/A2: 21 cm (CCROM

IPB, 2010) and the more extreme projections is 38 cm (DKP, 2008).

5. The number of people served by PDAM today is 11,000 households, or it is equivalent to 550 000

inhabitants.

6. With the Jatibarang reservoir upstream conservation, discharge produced by the reservoir is 0:26

m3. Standard clean water needs are 120 liters/people/day or it is equivalent to 600 liters/

household/day (BPS), thus producing an additional reservoir of clean water for 37,500 homes

ladder. Without conservation in the upstream, the contribution expected from the reservoir will

decline by half or only provide for 18,500 additional households.


44

7. Semarang long coastline is 25 km from the east to the west. The ideal thickness of mangroves for

coastal protection is 100 meters, so the ideal total area of mangroves to coastal city of Semarang

is about 250 hectares.

8. The total area of current fishponds is according to data in 2009 covering 1002.1 hectares area.

The rate of decreasing fishpond is about 42 hectares within 5 years (DKP, 2010) and the

economic loss per hectare of ponds is equal to Rp.18 Million.

4.2. Climate Change Scenario Development in Semarang City

4.2.1. Dry Season Scenario

Based on the trend data in Semarang City, the average of the dry season is 3 (three) months at MAM.

Along with climate change, drought is expected to become longer presumably at 4 (four) months. If

the current Semarang City’s population is for about 1.4 million inhabitants, then in the next 50 years

Semarang’s future population will be 2.9 million inhabitants. The dry season, which is getting longer,

will have effect on the availability of the PDAM taps water. If the current 60% population of the city

not served by PDAM and there is no additional raw water and the long dry season remained about

four months, then 80% of the population in 50 years from now will not get service PDAM taps. If

within a near one-month dry season becomes longer, the number of people who are not served

taps will increase up to 70% and in 50 years that will come, it is predicted approximately 85% of the

population does not get service PDAM taps.

4.2.2. Dry Season Scenario After Dam Development and Without Upstream Conservation

Jatibarang Reservoir Development which will be completed in 2015 will give positive implications

although still leaves a problem. With the reservoir development but without appropriate

conservation in 2015 and long 3-month dry season there will be 54% of people without clean water

taps and underserved that number increased to 63% when the dry season occurred 1 month longer.

With the same scenario, by 2050 the number of people without clean water taps increase at 78%

and 82%.


45

4.2.3. Dry Season Scenario After Dam Development With Upstream Conservation

Conservation Jatibarang upstream reservoir will provide a better effect for water availability.

Reservoir development supported by conservation activities, in 2015 and it is assumed that there will

be 3-months long dry season, the number of people without clean water taps served is about 47%

of people and that number increased to 58% when the dry season occurred 1 month longer. With

the same scenario, by 2050 the number of people without clean water taps service increase at 75%

and 80%.

Table 4.1: Scenario Dry Season in Semarang City

Population:1.4 Millions

(Current)

Population:1.4 Millions

(Current)

Population: 2.9 Millions

(Next 50 years)

Population: 2.9 Millions

(Next 50 years)

People Uncovered by PDAM Water TapPeople Uncovered by PDAM Water Tap

3 Months Dry Season 60%60% 80%80%

4 Months Dry Season 70%70% 85%85%

Post Development of

Dam

wo/ Upstream

Conservation

w/ Upstream

Conservation

wo/ Upstream

Conservation

w/ Upstream

Conservation

3 Months Dry Season 54% 47% 78% 75%

4 Months Dry Season 63% 58% 82% 80%

4.2.4. Rainy Season Scenario

Based on trend data in Semarang City, the average of rainy season will take place in 2-3 months.

Along with climate change, the rainy season is expected to become longer than 4-6 months. If the

current urban drainage masterplan realization is only 9%, then in a normal situation 10.8% of

Semarang City area will be inundated by floods with a total of 36 days per year. In 50 year a half of

the drainage master plan will be realized, the inundated areas will decrease at 6.5% with only 22-day

flooding per year. Longer rain season will give effect on the extent of inundation areas. If

achievements drainage masterplan has not changed and still the same as present condition,

inundated areas will increase at 13%. Total flooding-days per year will also increase to 72 days.


46

With the realization of half of the masterplan urban drainage in the next 50 years, a longer rainy

season still causes inundation to about 7.8% of city area and the possibility to have a 44 flooding-

days per year.

With less optimal drainage system at this time, it is estimated about 30% of public and private wells

are used by approximately 51,000 households are contaminated. If the rainy season getting intense,

the number of wells contaminated will increase, where the number of affected communities will

increase to approximately 58,500 households. Repairing drainage system in 50 years from now is

estimated a reduction to the number of wells contaminated to 20%. However, the number of

households utilize these resources will be higher at about 92,800 households. Then if in 50 years

from now, a rainy season has become longer the number of people affected will increase to

approximately 98,600 households.

Table 4.3 Scenario Rainy Season in Semarang City

9% Drainage Masterplan

are Implemented (Current)

50% Drainase Masterplan will be

implemented (Next 50 years)

Percentage of Inundated AreasPercentage of Inundated Areas

2-3 Months Rainy Season 10.8% 6.5%

4-6 Months Rainy Season 13% 7.8%

Number of Days with FloodingNumber of Days with Flooding

2-3 Months Rainy Season 36 22

4-6 Months Rainy Season 72 44

Flooded Houses and Contaminated WellsFlooded Houses and Contaminated Wells

2-3 Months Rainy Season 51.000 92.800

4-6 Months Rainy Season 58.500 98.600

Areas Prone to LandslideAreas Prone to Landslide

2-3 Months Rainy Season 23 Sub-district 8 Sub-district

4-6 Months Rainy Season 38 Sub-district 19 Sub-district


47

Landslide prone areas in Semarang City are also predicted to increase along with the rate of extreme

precipitation. Based on the previous VA study, there are 23 Sub-districts are categorized as a

vulnerable area and have a high slope. The number will increased to 38 Sub-district in 2050 if the

rainy season lasts 4-6 months. In the future, improvement of the drainage system is assumed to be

able to reduce 65% risk at the normal rainy season 2-3 months and it will reduce 50% risk at the

more extreme rainfall season (4-6 months).

4.2.5. Scenario of Flooded Areas due to SLR

At present the achievement of Semarang city drainage master plan (MercyCorps, 2010) is only about

9% and it is predicted in the next 50 years the ability to carried out masterplan drainage is up to 50%.

In the next 50 years to come SLR will increase by 21 cm (CC-ROM IPB, 2010). A more extreme

prediction states that SLR will increased by 38 cm (DKP, 2008). If no efforts to accelerate the

implementation of the masterplan drainage, SLR at a moderate level will result in seawater

inundation for about 53% of the total area of coastal in Semarang City. The improvement of

drainage system in 50 years from now, there will be 13% of total coastal area will be flooded. With a

more more extreme SLR, drainage system at this time will make 68% of the total coastal area of

Semarang will be flooded. In the next 50 years if half of the target drainage masterplan can be

realized the inundated areas will decrease approximately at 28% of the total area in coastal.

Table 4.3: Inundated Areas in Coastal and SLR Scenario in Semarang City

9% Drainage Masterplan

are Implemented (Current)

50% Drainase Masterplan will be

implemented (Next 50 years)

Percentage of Inundation in Coastal AreasPercentage of Inundation in Coastal Areas

SLR 21 Cm 10.8% 6.5%

SLR 38 Cm 13% 7.8%

4.2.6. SLR Scenario with Variation Area of Mangrove Conservation

At this time Semarang City has only 37% of ideal on the total area of mangrove conservation. With


48

such percentage, 21 cm increase in SLR (CC-ROM IPB, 2010) will cause 40% of fishpond at this time

will disappear, with total loss of about 7.2 Billion per year. A more extreme prediction where the SLR

will increase by 38 cm (DKP, 2008), 75% of current area of fishpond will disappear with total losses

reached 13.2 billion per year. On the other hand, the total area of mangrove in Semarang City shows

a declining trend. If this declining rate is taken into account and it is assumed there is no

intervention, In the coming 50 years, it is estimated that Semarang City will only has 18% of ideal on

the total area of mangrove conservation. In other words, mangrove conservation area will decrease

by half from now. In this situation, an increase of 21 cm SLR will cause 50% of the current fishponds

will disappear with total losses of around 9 billion per year. With a more extreme prediction in which

SLR will increase by 38 cm, 90% of the existing fishpond will disappear with total economic loss at

16.3 billion per year.

Table 4.4: SLR Scenario with Variation Area of Mangrove Conservation

Mangrove 37% of Ideal

(Current)

Mangrove 18% of Ideal

(Next 50 Years)

Percentage of Loss on Fishponds from Existing (2009 data)Percentage of Loss on Fishponds from Existing (2009 data)

SLR 21 Cm 40% 50%

SLR 38 Cm 75% 90%

Production Loss (in Billions IDR)Production Loss (in Billions IDR)

SLR 21 Cm 7.2 9

SLR 38 Cm 13.2 16.3


49

5. Strategy and Priority for Actions

5.1. Goals and Strategies for Climate Change Resilience

Based on the understanding on urban vulnerability assessment to climate change and climate

change scenarios as described in the previous section, there are five sectors that need to be focused

in the formulation of resilience strategy in Semarang City. These five sector are clean water,

infrastructure, marine and fisheries, environment, and human resources and institutional

development. The purpose of resilience strategy in each sector as follows:

5.1.1. Water Sector Resilience Strategies

Resilience strategy on water is intended as an effort to ensure the availability of drinking water for

community in Semarang City under extreme climate conditions, both when flooding and

prolonged drought. Target of this strategy is prioritized for the community groups which are not

covered by PDAM tap service and those living far away from water sources. Several alternative

actions to create the city resilience of this water source are:

• Rainwater harvesting. Rainwater harvesting is targeted to support the deficit of water supply

with application a particular technology which fits to local condition ‒ whether as hilly upstream

regions, dense city center, or coastal. There are some technical options to rain harvesting such as

through construction of ponds, water tanks on the roof building, dam, artificial well and biophore.

• Water saving. The goal of this intervention is reduction the utilization of clean water both

individually and collectively. Developing awareness, technology applications, and promoting

incentive and disincentive regulation are some actions to translate this strategy.

• Purification of public wells/ contaminated water source. The goal of purification is a guarantee

that both private and public well owned by community is still feasible to consume. The

purification can be done with conventional methods or advanced technology depends on the

contamination level.


50

• Seawater desalination. Desalination will significantly improve resilience on clean water, especially

in emergency situation. Provision of mobile water treatment is one of possible intervention.

5.1.2. Infrastructure Sector Resilience Strategies

Infrastructure resilience strategy is intended as an effort to reduce the negative impact from

flooding when the intensity of rainfall extremely increase. Target of this strategy is prioritized on

communities living around the flood plains and the survivability economic centers and the nodes

movement to perform their functions. Several alternative actions to foster resilience from

infrastructure point of view are:

• Construction of sea wall. Basically sea wall is one of required infrastructure to protect infiltration

of seawater into coastal land. The sea wall can be developed on the land and on the shallow water

areas. Besides to perform its basic function, the sea wall will increase accessibility if the top part of

the dike is designed as transportation road.

• Construction of the channel belt. The channel belt is a citywide infrastructure to split or distribute

rainwater flowing in major rivers from the south to the north of Semarang City. The channel belt

lying from the west to the east of Semarang City will slowing down the water velocity and reduce

risk of flooding in center business districts.

• Neighborhood drainage network development. Neighborhood drainage is one of infrastructure

• component to improve resilience especially on settlements which are prone to landslide with 15%

and more gradient. Inappropriate neighborhood drainage often causes landslide and erosion. The

urgency of neighborhood drainage as a tertiary system is less considered in city drainage

masterplan and got less priority of funding. In fact, this tertiary system will have influence on the

bigger drainage system.

• Construction of flood shelter. This intervention is important to increase resilience when extreme

rainfall or the failure of drainage system occurs. The construction of flooding shelter is allocated to

settlement centers with time and distance consideration. The shelter can be a new building or it

just integrated its function with others available building.


51

5.1.3. Environment Sector Resilience Strategies

Environmental sector resilience strategy is intended as an effort to support sustainability various

development programs of the water sector as well as existing infrastructure. With this strategy it is

expected that the benefit of clean water programs and infrastructure project can last for a long time

and immediately be perceived by the target. Several alternative actions to create resilience from

environmental point of view are:

• Upstream Conservation of Jatibarang Dam. Upstream conservation is basically a set of activity

covering planting activity with suitable vegetation and advocating regulation to limit and control

development of Dam Jatibarang’s upstream. The conservation will help to minimize siltation

process that reduce the dam’s function.

• Protecting sources of clean water.through household liquid waste management. This

intervention covers construction of wastewater treatment which locally specific and development

of micro-finance scheme to increase poor people access to sanitation. This intervention is

important to reduce a serious risk of drinking and clean water following flood or sea level rise.

• Vegetative treatment for settlement areas which are prone to landslides. There are several

vegetation species that can be chosen such as vetiver grass and bamboo. Vegetative treatment is

less costly for community and more environmentally friendly in comparison to other structural

approach.

5.1.4. Marine and Fisheries Sector Resilience Strategies

Resilience strategy of marine and fisheries sector has a strong relationship with environmental

sector. Resilience strategy is intended as an effort to protect aquaculture activities in Semarang City

from the threat of SLR and abrasion. Target of this strategy is prioritized to communities in coastal

area in general and fish farmers in specific. Several alternative actions to create the resistance of this

sector are:

• Development of green belt along the beach surround aquaculture zone. A variety of

techniques of coastal vegetation planting are available, from the conventional to innovative one.


52

The utilization of used tire to wave breaker, instead of as planting medium is one of technique

currently initiated in Semarang City.

• Diversifying marine and fisheries business and product. The goal of diversification is to

economically strengthen people who are working in marine and fisheries sector. So they will be

more stable and are able to afford individual adaptation action if necessary.

5.1.5. Human Resource Capacity and Institutional Strategies

Human resource development through formal and informal education and training public and

government officials become an important strategy in climate change adaptation. Knowledge and

skills obtained will facilitate implementation and encourage the success of the program and climate

change adaptation action. Several interventions that can be proposed are:

• Mainstreaming climate change into education curricula. The goal of this action is public will

have a more understanding on the climate issues, impacts, and challenges. The content of

education material and methods depend on different education level, begin with elementary

school to university.

• The establishment of Center for Cities and Climate Change (C4). This institutional development

is to increase government capacity by providing information and data base to support decision

making process. This organization also provides training for government staffs especially to equip

them with skills to translate strategic strategies into implementable actions. This organization is

possible to train other party on request. Although this institution located under government

organization structure (called Pusat Informasi Pembangunan), partnership with human resource

from universities and NGOs is possible. Semarang City’s Technical Team on Climate Change which

exist currently can be an embrio of this institution.

• Involving Private Sector in Climate Change adaptation. The goal of this intervention is better

allocation of CSR of private organizations to climate adaptation activities. This activities can be

done by developing a communication forum between government and private or business

sectors with a specific topic on CSR and climate change.


53

• Strategic Environmental Assessment of City Masterplan with Climate Change Criteria. The

Semarang City Masterplan 2010-2030 might not workable given the extreme changes in rainfall

and sea level rise occurs in the city. New development in the coastal and what are maintained the

masterplan such as airport, railway station, industrial areas, and centers of trade and services might

fail to perform their function under such condition. In addition, new land use that are allocated in

other part of Semarang City will influence or will be influenced by climate change. Therefore a

comprehensive strategic environmental assessment of the city masterplan are needed.

5.2. Criteria for Resilience Strategy

In the proposed adaptation activities to urban resilience, resilience criteria should be taken into

account. These criteria include (the Rockefeller Foundation and ISET, 2010):

• Redundancy: the various ways to accomplish tasks that are essential to system must be

developed in the formulation of actions to improve resilience.

• Flexibility: the actions that are developed must have the flexibility because the system is also

expected to accommodate condition without an error (when extreme situations do not occur). If

an error occurs under extreme conditions, it is also predictable and controllable and it can be

recovered quickly.

• Reaction ability/ reorganization: the actions that are developed are expected to support system

in reshaping itself quickly in undesirable conditions.

• Learning: the developed actions should attempt to utilize the experiences that already exist to

speed up the process of accumulation of knowledge. In other words, the proposed adaptation

actions should not be untested.


54

Table 5.1: Resilience Criteria of Proposed Climate Change Adaptation Actions

CLIMATE ADAPTA-

TION STRATEGIES

REDUNDANCY FLEXIBILITY/

ROBUSTNESS

REORGANIZATION/

RESPONSIVENESS

LEARNING

1. Rain Harvesting Can be done by making

ponds, recharge wells,

or catch water directly

from the roof building.

The rainwater can be

directly used to wash-

ing and toileting or

through processing

prior as drinking water.

Rain harvesting re-

duces run-off which

potentially caused

flooding.

There are individual

initiation on rain water

harvesting implemen-

tation

2.Water Saving The reduction could also

include reuse

in using water and can

be done in various

household activities.

Water savings can be

done in the dry or rainy

season.

Water saving can also

provide water supply

in the dry season.

There have been

many campaigns

about water savings.

3. Purification of pub-

lic wells / contami-

nated water sources

Purification can be done

with various ways, both

traditional and with im-

plementation appropriate

technology.

Filtration systems de-

signed in order to run

during floods and sea-

water inundation.

inundation, purifica-

tion guarantee the

availability of clean

water for community

and reduce commu-

nity fees to purchase

clean water.

Purification has been

applied, for example,

in Aceh

4.Seawater desalina-

tion

Desalination is con-

ducted in emergency

situation only, especially

when flooding occurs.

Desalination facilities

are designed with mo-

bile concept to reach

flooding areas.

In emergency case,

seawater desalination

will guarantee avail-

ability clean water for

flooding victims.

Desalination projects

has been imple-

mented in in Aceh

and Bali

5. Sea wall Sea dike will also serve

as the north outer ring

road of Semarang City

Sea dikes can over-

come SLR at the

most extreme level

It has been imple-

mented in several

other countries,

such as the Nether-

lands and South Ko-

rea.

6. Channels belt

network

Can be designed to

accommodate rain-

water runoff in extreme

conditions, the volume

channels can be design

to consider extreme

rainfall conditions.

Could reduce the

pressure of flooding in

the central part of

Semarang City

It was pointed out in

the drainage master-

plan of Semarang. It

has been imple-

mented in some part

of Semarang at small

scale.


55

CLIMATE ADAPTA-

TION STRATEGIES


ROBUSTNESS

REORGANIZATION/

RESPONSIVENESS

LEARNING

7. Neighborhood

Drainage System

Can be designed to

accommodate presipi-

tation runoff in extreme

conditions. The drain-

age design

such as volume and

materials may consider

availability material at

the local level.

Could reduce the

pressure flooding in

the central part of

Semarang City, espe-

cially in neighborhood

settlements. It can

improve the quality of

public health.

It has been imple-

mented in some parts

of the city at small

scale, such as KIP.

8. Flooding Shelter Should be designed with

minimum elevation which

higher than flooding level

at the most extreme

rainfall.

The construction of

flooding shelter is allo-

cated to settlement

centers with time and

distance consideration.

The shelter can be a

new building or it just

integrated its function

with others available

building.

Community resilience

increase when ex-

treme rainfall and the

failure of drainage

system occurs.

The victims of flood

disaster often evacu-

ate their self inde-

pendently to higher

locations used to

public building close

to their home such as

mosques, curchs,

and schools.

9. Upstream Conser-

vation of Jatibarang

Dam

Can be done with vari-

ous ways, such as agro-

forestry.

Planting can be done in

rainy season, and

treatment will be fo-

cused on dry season.

Can deliver value

added economically

for the community

besides

reduce sedimentation

to Jatibarang Dam

It has been studied by

Central Government,

Local Government,

and JICA.

10. Protecting water

resources through

domestic liquid

waste management.

Can be done through the

management liquid

waste.

Can be done in individ-

ual and communal

scale. The design can

be customised

with the characteristic

of problems at different

locality.

Improving public

health and environ-

ment quality.

There are initiation

activity applied by the

City Government and

NGOs. Citywide-

sanitation masterplan

is available.

11. Vegetative

Treatment to address

landslide

in the high slope

areas

There are various kinds

of species (vetiver, bam-

boo,

crops) and planting

techniques.


rainy season, and

treatment will be fo-

cused on dry season

In addition to protect-

ing homes and pre-

vent the victim, this

has contribution to

reduce sedimentation

in the urban drainage

network.

There were initiation

activity practised

through ACCCRN’s

pilot projects.

12. Green belt along

the shoreline in aq-

uaculture land

There are various kinds

of species and planting

techniques for man-

groves.


rainy season, and

treatment

will be focused on dry

season

In addition to protect-

ing the fishponds, it

also increases the

coastal biodiversity,

providing additional

benefits such as for

education and tour-

ism.

There are many initia-

tion activity applied by

the City Government

and NGOs


56

CLIMATE ADAPTA-

TION STRATEGIES


ROBUSTNESS

REORGANIZATION/

RESPONSIVENESS

LEARNING

13. Diversification of

marine and fisheries

business and prod-

ucts

Development of fisheries

and marines business

which is not sensitive to

SLR and extreme rainfall.

Development of busi-

ness and products fol-

lows the demand of the

markets.

Economically

strengthened people

who are working in


sector will be more

stable and are able to

afford individual adap-

tation action if neces-

sary

There are many op-

tions of activities to

develop this sectors.

14. Mainstreaming

climate change into

education curricula

Can be done through

both formal and non

formal education and

within local government

and broader community

Can be done any time.

Its application could be

integrated or adjusted

with available education

system

and training.

Environmental Educa-

tion programs have

been practised to

formal education but

it is not specific about

climate change.

15. The establish-

ment of Center for

Cities and Climate

Changes

The institution organiza-

tionally under local gov-

ernment but it consists

of city development

stakeholders (govern-

ment, NGOs, University,

Private, Media, and

Community Groups).

The organization format

follow the mechanism

and procedure in local

government. This insti-

tutional development is

to increase government

capacity by providing

information and data

base to support deci-

sion making process.

This organization also

provides training for

government staffs or

other on request.

Other similar centers

are available in other

cities and the centers

usually based in uni-

versity.

16. Involvement Pri-

vate Sector in Cli-

mate Adaptation

Projects

Private contribution will

be made specifically

relevant with their inter-

est.

CSR programs in pro-

climate adaptation

activities. Private sec-

tors will be directed to

have contribution to

CC adaptation

Some private corpo-

rations have invested

their CSR to environ-

mental protection

projects.

17. Strategic Envi-

ronmental Assess-

ment of City Master-

plan with Climate

Change Criteria

There are some docu-

ment on CC in Sema-

rang City

There are enough hu-

man resource capacity

to deal with the evalua-

tion

The output of evalua-

tion can be useful for

further spatial plan-

ning policies.

The result of evalua-

tion will feed city

regular evaluation on

masterplan every 5

years.

There is no initiative to

evaluate city master-

plan with CC criteria

in Indonesia, but this

practice may be avail-

able in other country

such as India (Surat

City)


57

5.3. Prioritization Process

Qualitative Cost-Benefit Analysis (QualBCA) is selected to conduct the process of prioritization.

Before calculation of benefit and cost of activities are carried out, a qualitative description of the

benefit and cost is presented in the following matrix.

Table 5.2: Costs (C) of Adaptation Actions

CLIMATE ADAPTA-

TION STRATEGIES

COSTSCOSTS

TION STRATEGIESEconomy Social Environment Others

1. Rain Harvesting Need a DED study,

Installment, system

maintenance, land

acquisition for

ponds system

model

Negative percep-

tion on rainwater

quality which are

assumed as dirty

water

Health risks as

medium to mos-

quitos and larvae

Landscape modi-

fication for ponds

system model has

an effect for envi-

ronment

2.Water Saving Installment, saving

water technology

Community resis-

tance to new life

style

3. Purification of

public wells / con-

taminated water

sources

Need a DED study,

Installment

Less practice from

community point of

view

4.Seawater desali-

nation

Machinery invest-

ment, operational

and maintenance,

Distributor vehicle

Massive energy,

produce a high

level of CO2

Skillful operators

5. Sea wall Need a DED study,

Operational and

maintenance, High

cost investment

Sensitive to conflict

over land acquisi-

tion issues, loss of

some people liveli-

hoods

Coastal ecosys-

tem degradation

Sand mining in-

crease to sea wall

construction

People safety are

threatened if there is

failure

Will promote develop-

ment in SLR prone

areas

6. Channels belt

network

Need a DED study,

Operational and

maintenance, High

cost investment

Land acquisition

for development

Traffic jam due to

development proc-

ess

Reduction of channel

drainage lifetime due to

sediment and garbage


58

CLIMATE ADAPTA-

TION STRATEGIES

COSTSCOSTS


7. Neighborhood

Drainage System

Need a DED study,

Operational and

maintenance, High

cost investment

Reduction of channel

drainage lifetime due to

sediment and garbage

8. Flooding Shelter Need a DED study,

Investment for new

building, investment

for building modifi-

cation, land acquisi-

tion, Operational

and maintenance

Perception and

negative image to

government (why

do not solve the

root of problem?)

9. Upstream Con-

servation of

Jatibarang Dam

Seed provision,

planting, and main-

tenance

Need intergovern-

mental coopera-

tions: beyond the

authority of city

government

Government’s percep-

tion that conservation

is economically not

feasible, especially

from regional income

perspective

10. Domestic liquid

waste management

to protect water re-

sources

Need a DED study,

Installment, and

maintenance

Community per-

ception that waste

water should be

away from their

homes

Community resistance

if maintenance costs

became their responsi-

bility due to lack of un-

derstanding and econ-

omy

11. Vegetative

Treatment to ad-

dress landslide

in the high slope

areas

Seed provision,

planting, fertilizing,

and maintenance

Land acquisition Time gap between

planting actions and

gained benefits



uaculture land

Land acquisition,

seed provision, and

maintenance

Sensitive to conflict

over land acquisi-

tion issues be-

cause land owner-

ship

Government’s percep-

tion that conservation

is economically not

feasible, especially

from regional income

perspective



business and prod-

ucts

Training, Business

assistance, capital

support,and moni-

toring

Community resis-

tance to new life

style

Inappropriate type

of business has a

negative impact

to environment

Marine and fisheries

sector get less gov-

ernment attention

14. Mainstreaming

climate change into

formal education

curricula

Training, curricula

development, and

development of

learning forum

Too many subjects

on formal educa-

tion


59

CLIMATE ADAPTA-

TION STRATEGIES

COSTSCOSTS


15. The establish-

ment of Center for

Cities and Climate

Changes

Training, developing

tools and learning

media

Multi-stakeholder insti-

tutions are difficult to

be funded by govern-

ment


vate Sector in Cli-

mate Adaptation

Projects

Training, seminar,

and workshop

Develop dialogue

forum between

Private, Govern-

ment,and Commu-

nity.

Multi-stakeholder insti-

tutions are difficult to

be funded by govern-

ment

17. Strategic Envi-

ronemntal Assess-


plan with Climate

Change Criteria

Workshop series The result of

evaluation might be

difficult to be

adopted due to a

huge social cost

Non-physical outputs

are less considered

because don’t have

direct impact to people

Table 5.3: Benefits (B) of Adaptation Actions

CLIMATE ADAPTA-

TION STRATEGIES

BENEFITSBENEFITS


1. Rain Harvesting Reduce cost for

water purchase

Reduce economic

loss from flooding

Recreation object Reduce under-

ground water ex-

ploitation

2.Water Saving Reduce cost for

water purchase

! Reduce pressure to

water resources

3. Purification of pub-

lic wells / contami-

nated water sources

Reduce cost for

water purchase

Reduce health risk

due to flooding

4.Seawater desalina-

tion

Reduce cost for

water which are

expensive especially

on flood disaster

Provide clean wa-

ter in emergency

situation

5. Sea wall Reduce economic

loss of flooding and

seawater inundation

Increase accessibil-

ity

Create new em-

ployments in con-

struction phase


60

CLIMATE ADAPTA-

TION STRATEGIES

BENEFITSBENEFITS


6. Channels belt net-

work

Reduce economic

loss of flooding

Reduce health risk

due to flooding

and create new

employments in

construction

phase

7. Neighborhood

Drainage System

Reduce economic

loss of flooding and

landslides

Reduce health risk

due to flooding

and create new

employments in

construction

phase

8. Flooding Shelter Shelter can be func-

tioned as public

space when there is

no flooding

Reduce health risk

due to flooding

and create new

employments in

construction

phase

Quality of shelter is

better than their

houses which are

flooded

9. Upstream Conser-

vation of Jatibarang

Dam

Support water

sources for PDAM

Create new em-

ployments in

planting phase

and tourism activ-

ity post develop-

ment

Reduce sedimenta-

tion into the dam

and contribute to

green masterplan

10. Protecting water

resources through

domestic liquid waste

management

Consistency of wa-

ter supply non

PDAM

Waste is also

community re-

sponsibility

Increase public

health quality

Protect water re-

source non PDAM

11. Vegetative Treat-

ment to address

landslide

in the high slope ar-

eas

Reduce material

loss due to land

slide

Reduce the num-

ber of victims

Reduce sedimenta-

tion into the drain-

age and contribute

to green masterplan



uaculture land

Protecting 1000

hectares of fish-

ponds valued at 18

Billions/ year

Increase the wel-

fare o coastal

community

Tourism and man-

grove for educa-

tions

Increase coastal

biodiversity



business and prod-

ucts

Increase community

income

The level of com-

munity welfare at

least will not de-

cline


61

CLIMATE ADAPTA-

TION STRATEGIESBENEFITSBENEFITS

TION STRATEGIES

Economy Social Environment Others

14. Mainstreaming

climate change into

formal education cur-

ricula

Economic lost due

to environmental

degradation can be

reduced

Increasing knowl-

edge of people at

school and uni-

versity

Community-based

environmentally

sound activities will

grow considerably

Key success for the

implementation of

climate adaptation

program

15. The establishment

of Center for Cities

and Climate Changes

Availability of infor-

mation, data base,

and human re-

source to local gov-

ernment

The capacity of

government and

public will increase

Key success for the

implementation of

climate adaptation

program


vate Sector in Climate

Adaptation Projects

Alternative sources

of climate adapta-

tion funding are

available

Environmental man-

agement activities

increase which con-

tribute to resilience

Key success for the

implementation of

climate adaptation

program

17. Strategic Envi-

ronmental Assess-


plan with Climate

Change Criteria

Non-physical so it

less expensive ac-

tivity

The future impact

of CC to society

can be anticipated

by spatial plan-

ning.

Environmental pres-

sure that exacerbate

the impact of CC

can be identified

5.4. Qualitative CBA and Prioritized Strategies

Qualitative CBA were chosen as a prioritization tool. The value were chosen column by column from

the left (cost) to the right (benefit). Firstly, based on the qualitative description as shown by two

matrices above, the CWG then decided the highest and the lowest value of strategies in each

column. Although the maximum and the minimum value are 5 and 1 respectively, the value within

each column is not always at maximum and minimum. After that, the rest of strategies were valued

gradually between those highest and lowest. The following matrix is the result of Qualitative BCA.


62

Table 5.4: Qualitative CBA of Climate Adaptation Strategies

CLIMATE ADAPTATION COSTS BENEFITSBENEFITS B/C

RatioCLIMATE ADAPTATION

STRATEGIES Economy SocialEnviron-

mentOthers

Total Costs

Economy SocialEnviron-

mentOthers

Total Benefits

Ratio

1. Rain Harvesting 3 1 2 1 7 5 3 5 - 13 1.86

2.Water Saving 3 3 - - 6 4 - 4 - 8 1.33

3. Purification of public wells /

contaminated water sources3 3 - - 6 3 3 - - 6 1.00

4.Seawater desalination 4 - - 4 8 2 4 - - 6 0.75

5. Sea wall 5 3 3 4 15 5 3 - - 8 0.53

6. Channels belt network 5 3 - 1 9 4 3 - - 7 0.78

7. Neighborhood Drainage Sys-

tem 5 - - 3 8 3 3 - - 6 0.75

8. Flooding Shelter 4 2 - - 6 3 4 3 - 10 1.67

9. Upstream Conservation of

Jatibarang Dam2 4 - 3 9 4 2 2 - 8 0.89

10. Domestic liquid waste man-

agement to protect water re-

sources

4 2 - 2 8 4 3 5 - 12 1.50

11. Vegetative Treatment to

address landslide

in the high slope areas

3 4 - 3 10 3 3 4 - 10 1.00

12. Green belt along the shore-

line in aquaculture land3 4 - 3 10 3 2 4 - 10 1.00

13. Diversification of marine and

fisheries business and products3 4 2 3 12 3 3 4 - 10 0.83

14. Mainstreaming climate

change into formal education

curricula

4 4 - - 8 3 3 3 2 11 1.38

15. The establishment of Center

for Cities and Climate Changes3 - - 4 7 4 4 - 3 11 1.57

16. Involvement Private Sector

in Climate Adaptation Projects2 4 - - 6 2 - 3 2 7 1.17

17. City Masterplan Evaluation-

with Climate Change Criteria1 4 - - 5 1 3 7 1.40

Note : Assessment Range: 1 - 5For the cost (C) 1 for inexpensive /low and 5 for the expensive/ high For the benefit (B) 1 to benefit low/ less and 5 to high benefit/ high


63

From the matrix above, the priority adaptation actions in Semarang City can be formulated as

follows:

• Rain Harvesting (1.86)

• Flood shelter (1.67)

• The establishment of Center for Cities and Climate Changes (1.57)

• Domestic liquid waste management to protect water resources (1.50)

• City Masterplan Evaluation with Climate Change Criteria (1.40)

• Mainstreaming climate change into formal education curricula (1.38)

• Water Saving (1.33)

• Involvement Private Sector’s CSR in Climate Adaptation Projects (1.17)

• Purification of public wells / contaminated water sources (1.0)

• Vegetative treatment to address landslide in the high slope areas (1.0)

• 100 m Green belt along the shoreline in aquaculture land (1.0)

• Upstream Conservation of Jatibarang Dam (0.89)

• Diversification of marine and fisheries business and products (0.83)

• Channels belt network (0.78)

• Neighborhood drainage system (0.75)

• Seawater desalination (0.75)

• Sea wall (0.53)


64

6. Implementation and M&E

6.1. Implementation and Funding Priority for Actions

This CRS document is open to various parties who will implement as well as provide funding to the

priority actions that have been prepared. Yet all actions and financing will be coordinated by

BAPPEDA of Semarang City, assisted by the City Working Group and Technical Team on Climate

Change Adaptation of Semarang. Implementation and funding priority action can therefore be

carried out by various parties, both Local Government (through APBD), the central government

(through APBN, ICCTF), Private Sector (through CRS Fund), NGOs, Universities, or National and

international donor institutions.

Implementation of community-based approach (community-based) should remain the focus

attention from the action plan. Community Involvement as it has been demonstrated in the

ACCCRN’s Pilot Projects have a significant influence on the success of implemented adaptation

action. The involvement of community is essential especially when the contribution of community

in a particular intervention will be needed during and post implementation are needed. It can be

and is not limited to some activities such as incorporating community consultation, involving civil

society, giving responsibility for implementation, and sharing funding and resources.

Climate change adaptation action that has been formulated basically can be divided into short,

medium, and long-term intervention. Long-term intervention requires a huge financial investment

and more time in make it happen. Besides, there are also adaptation actions that could be realized in

a shorter period of time. The top five of prioritized actions will be the short-term category of actions

that will be proposed to Rockefeller Foundation. Every action adaptation does not exclusively

belong to one particular institution but it promotes collaborative action in accordance with the

authority of every organization. Table below outlines priority actions for climate change adaptation

in Semarang City in terms of timeframe, fund allocation , and potential collaboration execution.


65

Table 6.1: Matrix of prioritized Adaptation Actions Proposal to RF (Short Term - Less than 3 Years)

ADAPTATION ACTIONS TIME

FRAME

PROPOSED

BUDGET

FUNDING

PROPOSAL

COLLABORATING ACTORS

Rain Harvesting 30 Months 750,000 USD Rockefeller

Foundation, ISET,

MercyCorps

BAPPEDA, BLH; Dinas

Kesehatan; BAPERMAS,

University and Research

Institution, and NGOs

Flood Shelter 18 Months 210,000 USD Rockefeller

Foundation, ISET,

MercyCorps

BAPPEDA,PSDA, DPU, DTK,

DKPB, University and

Research Institution, and

NGOs

The establishment of

Center for Cities and

Climate Changes

12 Months 100,000 USD Rockefeller

Foundation, ISET,

MercyCorps

BAPPEDA, BPS, Litbang,

Bag. Hukum, University and


NGOs

Protecting water

resources through

domestic liquid waste

management


Foundation, ISET,

MercyCorps

BAPPEDA,BLH, Dinas

Kesehatan, DTK, University

and Research Institution, and

NGOs

Strategic Environmental

Assessment of City

Masterplan with Climate

Change Criteria


Foundation, ISET,

MercyCorps

BAPPEDA, University and


NGOs

Table 6.2: Medium (up to 5 years) and Long Term (Up to 10 years) of Adaptation Actions

TIME FRAME ADAPTATION ACTIONS FUNDING

PROPOSAL

COLLABORATION AND FUNDING

Medium Term Mainstreaming climate

change into formal education

curricula

APBD, ICCTF Dinas Pendidikan, BLH; University and

Research Institution

Water Saving APBD, ICCTF PSDA, DPU, BAPERMAS, University

and Research Institution, and NGOs


66

TIME FRAME ADAPTATION ACTIONS FUNDING

PROPOSAL

COLLABORATION AND FUNDING

Medium Term Involvement Private Sector’s

CSR in Climate Adaptation

Projects

APBD, ICCTF BAPPEDA, BLH, University and

Research Institution, and NGOs

Purification of public wells /

contaminated water sources

APBD, ICCTF,

DAK

BLH, Dinas Kesehatan, BAPERMAS

Vegetative treatment to

address landslide in the high

slope areas

APBD, ICCTF,

DAK

BLH, Dinas Pertanian, Dinas

Pertamanan, NGOs

100 m Green belt along the

shoreline in aquaculture land

APBD, ICCTF,

DAK

DKP, BLH, Dinas Pertanian, NGOs

Upstream Conservation of

Jatibarang Dam

APBD, ICCTF Pem Provinsi (BLH, Kehutanan), BLH,

Dinas Pertanian

Diversification of marine and

fisheries business and

products

APBD, ICCTF,

DAK

DKP, BAPERMAS, Dinas Koperasi

Long Term Channels belt network APBN, ICCTF DPU Pusat, BAPPEDA, DPU, PSDA,

DTKP

Neighborhood drainage

system

APBN, ICCTF DPU Pusat, BAPPEDA, DPU, PSDA,

BAPERMAS, DTKP

Seawater desalination APBN, ICCTF DPU Pusat, BAPPEDA, DPU, PSDA

Sea wall APBN, ICCTF DPU Pusat, BAPPEDA, DPU, PSDA,

DTKP

6.2. Monitoring and Evaluation

Monitoring and evaluation (M & E) of adaptation activities funded by local and state budget or fund

carried out following the monitoring and evaluation process that has been defined in laws and

relevant regulations. Adaptation activities funded by non-government funding such as grants from

international donors, international NGOs, and private sector will adapt to the cycle of monitoring


67

and evaluation funders. BAPPEDA, CWG, and the Technical Team on Climate Change Adaptation

Semarang City together with the initiators, implementors, and funders should prepare monitoring

indicators and evaluation prior to implementation of adaptation activities. Monitoring will be

performed periodically and evaluations conducted at least every year.


68

Reference

• Bintari. 2007. Kajian Kerugian Ekonomi akibat Banjir di Kelurahan Kemijen Kota Semarang. Semarang.

• CC-ROM IPB for Mercy Corps Indonesia, 2010. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment to Climate Change at Semarang City.

• DKP, 2008. Strategi Adaptasi dan Mitigasi Bencana Pesisir sebagai Akibat Perubahan Iklim terhadap Pesisir dan Pulau-Pulau Kecil. Jakarta.

• DKP, 2010. Inventarisasi Data Pesisir dan Kelautan Tahun 2009. Semarang.

• ICCSR, 2010. Indonesia’s Climate Change Sectoral Strategy Roadmap. Bappenas. Jakarta.

• Mercy Corps Indonesia, 2009. Community Based Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of Semarang City.

• Pemkot Semarang, 2006. Masterplan Drainase Kota Semarang. Semarang.

• Pemkot Semarang , 2007. Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Panjang (RPJP) Kota Semarang 2005-2025. Bappeda Kota Semarang. Semarang.

• PLRT FT UNDIP for Mercy Corps Indonesia, 2010 (a). Analisis Dampak Ekonomi terhadap Banjir Tahunan di Kelurahan Kemijen Kota Semarang. Semarang.

• PLRT FT UNDIP for Mercy Corps Indonesia, 2010 (b). Penilaian Masterplan Drainase Kota Semarang dalam Mengatasi Dampak Perubahan Iklim. Semarang.

• Rockefeller Foundation and ISET, 2010. Training Modul for City Resilience Strategy Technical Workshop. Bangkok.

• Setiadi, R dan Kunarso. 2009. ‘Pola Migrasi Masyarakat Pesisir Perkotaan sebagai Akibat Perubahan Iklim dalam Tiga Variasi Jangka Waktu: Studi Kasus Kota Semarang’, Laporan Hibah Kompetitif Riset Strategis Sesuai Prioritas Nasional Batch II 2009, Direktorat Jendral Pendidikan Tinggi. Jakarta.

• Setiadi, R dan Kunarso. 2010. ‘Pola Migrasi Masyarakat Pesisir Perkotaan sebagai Akibat Perubahan Iklim dalam Tiga Variasi Jangka Waktu: Studi Kasus Kota Semarang’, Laporan Hibah Kompetitif Riset Strategis Sesuai Prioritas Nasional 2010, Direktorat Jendral Pendidikan Tinggi. Jakarta

• UNEP, 2009. Climate in peril: a popular guide to the latest IPPC’s reports. GRID Arendal. Norway.


69

Annex 1: Scenario Development

People uncovered by PDAM

80%! 85%!

60% 70%!

Pop: 2.9 Millions!

Pop: 1.4 Millions!

Dry Season!3 Months !

Dry Season!4 Months!

People uncovered by PDAM

80%! 85%!

60% 70%!

Pop: 2.9 Millions !

Pop: 1.4 Millions !

Dry Season !3 Months!

Dry Season !4 Months!

People uncovered by PDAM after Jatibarang Dam development (2050)

75%! 80%!

78% 82%!

Pop: 2.9 Millions; Dam with up-stream conservation!

Pop: 2.9 Millions; Dam without up-stream conservation !



Coastal Area Covered by SLR with different Drainage Masterplan Implementation

13%! 28%!

53% 68%!

50% of Masterplan Drainage are implemented !

9% of Masterplan Drainage are implemented!

SLR!SRESA B1/A2!

21 cm!

SLR !DKP Projection!38 cm!


70

Area Covered by Flooding with different Drainage Masterplan Implementation

6.5%! 7.8%!

10.8% 13%!



Wet Season!2-3 Months !

Wet Season !4-6 Months !

Number of Days Flooding with different Drainage Masterplan Implementation

22 days!

44 days!

36 days

72 days!





Households with Contaminated Private and Public Wells

92.8 Thousand HH

98.6 Thousand HH!

51 Thousand HH

58.5 Thousand HH!

20% well are contaminated!

30 % wells are contaminated !

Wet Season !2-3 Months!

Wet Season!4-6 Months!

Number of Sub-district Prone to Land Slide

with different Drainage Masterplan Implementation

8

Sub-district!

19

Sub-district!

23

Sub-district

38

Sub-district!


9% of Masterplan Drainage are implemented!



Loss of Production Value of Fish Pond Area Covered by SLR

with different Mangrove Conservation

9.0 Billions/Year!

16.3

Billions/Year!

7.2 Billions/Year

13.2 Billions/Year!

18% of Total Suggested Areas for Mangrove Conservation!


SLR!SRESA B1/A2!

21 cm!

SLR !DKP Projection!38 cm!

Loss of Fish Pond Area Covered by SLR with different Mangrove Conservation

50%! 90%!

40% 75%!



SLR!SRESA B1/A2!

21 cm !

SLR!DKP Projection!38 cm!


71

Annex 2: Concept Proposal of Prioritized Actions


72

SECTION 1 – TITLE, CONTACT DETAILS AND BACKGROUND

1.1 Concept title: Water Resources Management In Dry Vulnerable Area of Semarang through Rain Harvesting Model

SECTION 2 – OUTCOMES, APPROACH, SCOPE AND

2.1 Problem definition

Why is this problem? ! what is the Climate Risk? ! who is vulnerable? ! which Urban Systems are

affected?

! What is the justification? ! What studies/ processes led

to this being identified (e.g. Vulnerability Assessments/ Sector Studies/ SLD Meetings)

• Some of drought area (such a Mangunharjo and Kec Tembalang) have risk climate category Medium-High. In 2025 and 2050, they will expose to high risk climate category.

• People who lives in drought area

• It affected to pipeline or water supply system (infrstructure) and community development

• VA: In drought area, people will dug well to get water. It contribute land subsidence. In some of area, they need to buy water from private provider at a costly high.

• SLD 3: Rainharvesting to solve dry areas

2.2 Method

What is the intended method? ! How would it be done (what

is the intended process) ! Who would do it (project

owner, partners, involved institutions)

• To identify potential water resource in semarang with mapping

• To identify existing water consumption pattern and water needed projection in a future with mapping

• Local Institutional dan community strengthening by training

• To set participatoy planning action to cope with climate change by FGD and training

• DED (detail engineering design) for new water resources utilizing through rainharvesting concept

• Project Implementation

• Monitoring and Evaluation

2.3 Scope

What is the estimated Cost? • Provide a breakdown of

costs by resource and time

What is the estimated timeframe? • Is it a staged approach? • When would outcomes be

achieved or outputs delivered?

Cost

! Prefeasibility study : US$ 25,000

! DED Rain harvesting models: US$ 50,000

! Piloting and Advancing the models: US$ 100,000

! Social marketing and awarenes: US$ 50,000

! Rain harvesting installment: US$ 500,000 USD

! Monev: US$ 25,000

Timeframe

! Prefeasibility study: 6 Months

! DED Rain harvesting models: 3 Months

! Piloting and Advancing the models: 6 Months

! Social marketing and awarenes: 3 Months

! Rain harvesting installment: 1 Years


73

SECTION 3 – PRINCIPLES AND CRITERIA

3.1 ACCCRN Principles

Does the concept challenge the ACCCRN principles in any way?

! Ecologically Sustainable Development

! Do No Harm

! Yes, It ecological sustainability development and have no ecological impact.

! This intervention doesn’t need chemical or any dangerous materials that can contribute negative impact to environtment. It expanse greenery to make the existing water resource sustainable.

3.2 Criteria 1: Contribution to

building Urban

climate change resilience

(Credibility)

Outline how the proposal meets criteria 1.

! Based on VA, this area is Medium,Medium – High climate risk area and they will move to High climate risk in the future if we do nothing. This intervention will help reduce the exposure of climate risk and improve coping capacity in drought area in Semarang by potential water resource management. It will interfere infrastructure system (such as pipeline) and using water resource and also find new water resource with rainharvesting system.

3.3 Criteria 2: Impact on

lives of poor and

vulnerable populations

(Credibility)

Outline how the proposal meets Criteria 2.

! It does impact to poor and vulnerable people in drought areas in Semarang. They will have good access of water supply, especially in dry season. The management water supply and greenery can be managed by local communities.

3.4 Criteria 10:!Prospects for replication in other

places (Replicable

and scalable)


! It could be replicate to other city in regional scale and have high potencial for wide and scale up in every drought area in ACCCRN cities, especially in steep/hill areas. Rainharvesting concept is adopted from local communities, e.g, In Bandar Lampung use a tank to catch the rainfall. What we do now is how to distribute and manage the water resource and how the poor and vulnerable people have good access and can get it cheap.

3.5 Criteria 11: Ability to

achieve scale

(Replicable and

scalable)


! The same as above


74


1.1 Concept title: Disaster Risk Reduction through developing shelter in flood area



Why is this problem? what is the Climate Risk? who is vulnerable? which Urban Systems are

affected?

What is the justification? What studies/ processes led


In 2050 SLR will be reach 21 – 38 cm

Base on local government budget ability, drainage master plan will be achieved about 50% from all actions plan.

Currently, implementation of drainage master plan is only 9% with own local government financial ability. Every year local government have ability to implement just 1% from all action plan in drainage master plan without development aid from others resource.

Consequence of that situation is more than 7% of coastal area will getting flood in 2050.

Now, it is about 51,000 household have flood disaster vulnerability and it will be increase until 98,000 household in 2050, or growing about 1,200 household per year with trend of drainage master plan implementation about 1% per year.

VA and sectoral studies show flood disaster give impact to loss of assets, to damage of infrastructure and public facilities, and health problems.

People who rich and has a family will move or evacuate to out of there are, but for poor people especially who hasn’t family, so they don’t have option or capacity to move from their area.

It is needed to develop flood shelter as a evacuation place for community during flood.

Flood shelter is expected to reduce victims of flood disaster because they have save evacuation shelter.

2.2 Method

What is the intended method? How would it be done (what

is the intended process) Who would do it (project


Feasibility Study for flood shelter in flood area in Semarang City

- Flood risk mapping and potential location for community evacuation

- Deciding effective and efficient for shelter

- Developing alternative for shelter shape with new building or improving existing building (public facilities)

DED for flood shelter development

Shelter construction which appropriate with location characteristic and technology

Developing disaster risk reduction system for flood disaster in Semarang, which flood shelter as a main component for flood evacuation.

2.3 Scope

What is the estimated Cost? Provide a breakdown of


What is the estimated timeframe?

Cost

Feasibility study : US$ 30,000

DED for flood shelter development : US$ 30,000

Shelter construction : US$ 100,000

Developing disaster risk reduction system : US$ 50,000


75

Is it a staged approach? When would outcomes be


Timeframe

Feasibility study : 3 months

DED for flood shelter development : 3 months

Shelter construction : 6 months

Developing disaster risk reduction system : 6 months



Does the concept challenge the ACCCRN principles in any way? Ecologically Sustainable

Development Do No Harm

The function of flood shelter will be integrated with public facility, such as school, sport facility, or meeting place. From shelter management can give contribution for operation and maintenance of shelter.

Feasibility study also considers impact of environment aspect.

3.2 Criteria 1: Contribution to building Urban climate change resilience (Credibility)


Shelter will reduce victim with the design consider to the most extreme of rain.

Disaster Risk Reduction system can enhance community participatory and preparedness to cope flood, so it can minimize loss caused by flood disaster.

3.3 Criteria 2: Impact on lives of poor and vulnerable populations (Credibility)


Poor population which has not family connection for evacuation become prioritize from flood shelter development because they are vulnerable group.

Impact of flood will reduce and decreasing community burden.

3.4 Criteria 10: Prospects for replication in other places (Replicable and scalable)


Flood shelter possible for replication in other place with considering climate and development scenario in the future.

Resilience strategy through developing flood shelter can be implemented in coastal cities, especially with lack of local government budget to solve the flood issues

3.5 Criteria 11: Ability to achieve scale (Replicable and scalable)


Integration flood shelter in city disaster risk reduction will help the development process, not only in city level but also for province and national level.


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1.1 Concept title: Establishing Center for Cities and Climate Change (C4) as a center of information and capacity building




affected?



Climate change issue is new issue, especially for local government, so just a few people have understanding with this issue.

Although climate change impact have felt by community but it’s difficult to make climate projection and estimation of impact to city development.

Government has normative development plan system with guidance from central government. The guidance makes development plan process is easy but create boundary for local government to integrate new development issues into planning system.

It is needed integration and sustainability efforts for integrating climate change issue into city development plan system.

It is needed institution for providing information about city and climate change as a part from decision making process. The institution has regular program to enhance capacity building for local government related with climate change.

2.2 Method

What is the intended method? How would it be done (what

is the intended process) Who would do it (project


Training of Trainer for member C4

Developing best practice tools, knowledge, and database

Establishing Center for Cities and Climate Change (C4)

Training trial and tools improvement

Developing C4 business plan

2.3 Scope





Cost

Training of Trainer for member C4 : US$ 10,000

Developing best practice tools, knowledge, and database : US$ 50,000

Establishing Center for Cities and Climate Change (C4) : US$ 10,000

Training trial and tools improvement : US$ 15,000

Developing C4 business plan : US$ 15,000

Timeframe

Training of Trainer for member C4 : 1 month

Developing best practice tools, knowledge, and database : 6 months

Establishing Center for Cities and Climate Change (C4) : 2 months

Training trial and tools improvement : 1 months

Developing C4 business plan : 2 months


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Does the concept challenge the ACCCRN principles in any way?

Ecologically Sustainable Development

Do No Harm

C4 will push to enhance local government capacity for understanding and developing strategy of climate change adaptation

C4 as a part of sustainability strategy in city resilience to cope climate change after ACCRN program



C4 has capacity to research related with climate change and city development issues for giving important input to decision making process in local government.

C4 will continue to develop adaptation efforts and monitoring evaluation, for increasing city resilience to cope climate change.



Increasing of decision maker capacity will create pro-poor development program as a resilience strategy.



Periodically, C4 hold training for local government, so the number of people who understand with climate change will increase. Distribution of knowledge to all district in Semarang will occur automatically



Successful and Sustainability of city to enhance resilience strategy with supported by C4 is a good practice process and it will be disseminated to vulnerable cities in climate change.


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1.1 Concept title: Disaster Risk Reduction through developing shelter in flood area




affected?



The number of household which use non-pipe water system is about 170,000 household and about 51,000 is located in coastal area which vulnerable for contamination caused by accumulation from domestic waste water in the river.

SLR will reach until 38 cm and population growth in 2050. Household with contamination of well will increase double from current.

Semarang local government in the progress to develop sanitation master plan as a respond MDGs indicator to enhance quality of sanitation. In draft of sanitation master plan explain several prioritize location for sanitation improvement to protect water resource and increasing public health.

Local government has limitation of budget to finance of domestic waste water treatment facility, cause of local government propose financing mechanism to central government.

Central government also has limitation to support all action in sanitation master plan, so it is needed other opportunity to finance this program

2.2 Method

What is the intended method? • How would it be done (what

is the intended process) • Who would do it (project


Study of appropriate technology for domestic waste water treatment

- Collecting best practice for community base on domestic waste water treatment

- Development options of domestic waste water treatment facilities including design and construction cost estimation

- Choosing appropriate or contextual technology which has resulted by Cost Benefit Analysis

Establishing community organization for waste water treatment facility management

Construction in several prioritize places

Awareness and Social Marketing

2.3 Scope





Cost

- Study of appropriate technology for domestic waste water treatment : US$ 30,000

- Establishing community organization for waste water treatment facility management : US$ 20,000

- Construction in several prioritize places : US$ 150,000

- Awareness and Social Marketing : US$ 30,000

Timeframe

- Study of appropriate technology for domestic waste water treatment : 3 months

- Establishing community organization for waste water treatment


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facility management : 6 months

- Construction in several prioritize places : 6 months

- Awareness and Social Marketing : 6 months



Does the concept challenge the ACCCRN principles in any way? Ecologically Sustainable

Development Do No Harm

Domestic waste water treatment will reduce pollution in drainage system which river as end pipe.

Increasing quality of river as water resource also means enhance water supply.

Bacteria in well can be reduced with domestic waste water treatment.



Domestic waste water treatment improve sanitation system and health, also increasing city resilience in water sector, because the function of treatment to give protection for non-pipe water resource, especially well.

Increasing sanitation access, public health, and water resource availability will make strength of city system from climate change threat in the future.



Bad sanitation and pollution in water resource from well will increasing community cost.

Poor population become most vulnerable group, because price of good water is more expensive compare with normal situation.

Prioritize of location for domestic waste water treatment is vulnerable group, so they can increase saving, because their cost will reduce for health and water resource allocation.



Decentralization system of domestic waste water treatment (in community level) can be replicated in other place, especially in priority area in sanitation master plan.

The goals of replication is just in management system, but for technology should consider with local situation.



If community can saving because their cost will decrease after program, so this system is easier to replicate in other area.


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