city of salinas · newport beach, ca 92660 reno, nv 89521 city of salinas 2012 revenue measure...

CITY OF SALINAS

2012 Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey

Topline Report n=752 / 3 ballot test splits 18-minutes Likely November 2012 Voters

July 5, 2012

www.godberesearch.com

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http://www.godberesearch.com/

Godbe Research City of Salinas 2012 Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey

Topline Report July 5, 2012 of 23

SURVEY METHODOLOGY

Godbe Research was commissioned to conduct a survey to assess potential voter support for a variety of revenue measures within the City of Salinas, which included a sales tax renewal, sales tax increase, and utility user tax modernization. The survey was also designed to: (a) prioritize projects and programs to be funded with the proceeds; and, (b) test the influence of supporting and opposing arguments on potential voter support.

Survey Methodology

Godbe Research conducted a total of 752 interviews representing 35,528 registered likely November 2012 voters in the City of Salinas. The error rate is plus or minus 3.5%. There were three subsamples of 244, 256 and 252, with error rates of 6.3, 6.1 and 6.2, respectively. Interviews were conducted from June 21 through June 29, 2012. The average interview time was approximately 18 minutes.

Once collected, the sample of voters was compared with the respective voter population in the City to examine possible differences between the demographics of the sample and the actual universe of voters. The data were weighted to correct these differences, and the results presented are representative of the voter characteristics of City of Salinas in terms of gender, age, political party type, and election timing.

Questionnaire Methodology

To avoid the problem of systematic position bias, where the order in which a series of questions is asked systematically influences the answers, several questions in the survey were randomized such that the respondents were not consistently asked the questions in the same order. The series of items in Questions 6, 7 and 8 were randomized to avoid such position bias. Further, Questions 4/5 and 11/12 were rotated so that the sample was balanced in whether they first heard information about the sales tax or utility user tax; and Questions 7/8 were rotated so that the sample was balanced in whether they first heard arguments in favor of or opposed to the ballot measure.

Mean Scores and Rounding

In addition to the percentage breakdown of responses to each question, results for the questions relating to features of the measure (Q6), and the positive and negative arguments (Q7 and Q8) include mean scores. For example, to derive the overall importance of a feature of the measure (Q6), a number value is first assigned to each response category (in this case, “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, “No Effect” = 0, “Somewhat Less Likely” = -1, and “Much Less Likely” = -2). The number values that correspond to respondents’ answers were then averaged to produce a final score that reflects the overall importance of that issue. The resulting mean score makes the interpretation of the data considerably easier. Responses of “Don’t Know” (DK/NA) were not included in the calculations of the mean scores for any question.

Conventional rounding rules are used in this report (.5 or above was rounded up, and .4 or below was rounded down). As a result, the percentages may not add up to 100 percent.



NOVEMBER CLIMATE

1. This November, voters in California will be presented with ballot measures to increase the sales tax we all pay by one-quarter cent and increase income taxes on high wage earners and corporations. The purpose of these statewide measures is to generate new revenues for kindergarten to high school education, higher education, public safety and other priorities. Various different groups either support or oppose these measures.

In general, do you support or oppose these measures? Is that strongly or somewhat (support / oppose)?

Strongly support 39.2%

Somewhat support 19.5%

Mixed opinions 11.9%

Somewhat oppose 7.3%

Strongly oppose 18.5%

DK/NA 3.5%



UNINFORMED BALLOT TESTS: SPLIT SAMPLE A (N=244)

-NEW SALES TAX

In the future, voters in Salinas may be asked to vote on one or more local ballot measures for essential city services and facilities. Let me read you the description of one of these potential measures:

2. To preserve our quality of life and maintain city services and facilities, including:

neighborhood policing;

fire, police and emergency response;

crime and gang prevention;

keeping libraries open;

fixing potholes, streets, and sidewalks;

park and recreation programs for youth and seniors; and

other city services,

shall the City of Salinas enact a half cent sales tax, that can’t be taken by the State, with citizens’ oversight, annual independent audits, with all funds spent only in Salinas? [74 words

“City of Salinas” =1 word]

If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)?

Definitely Yes 45.3%

Probably Yes 25.1%

Probably No 7.2%

Definitely No 15.6%

DK/NA 6.7%



UNINFORMED BALLOT TESTS SPLIT SAMPLE B (N=256)

-RENEW & INCREASE SALES TAX

In the future, voters in Salinas may be asked to vote on one or more local ballot measures for essential city services and facilities. Let me read you the description of one of these potential measures:









with funds that can’t be taken by the State, shall the City of Salinas renew its expiring sales tax and increase it by a half cent, with citizens’ oversight, annual independent audits, with all funds spent only in Salinas? [82 words “City of Salinas” =1 word]



Probably Yes 28.5%

Probably No 8.8%

Definitely No 16.5%

DK/NA 7.4%



UNINFORMED BALLOT TESTS SPLIT SAMPLE C (N=252)


-UUT MODERNIZATION

In the future, voters in Salinas may be asked to vote on some local ballot measures for essential city services and facilities. Let me read you the description of two potential measures:

Here’s the first measure:












Probably Yes 23.9%

Probably No 9.3%

Definitely No 17.9%

DK/NA 3.6%



Here’s the second measure:

5. Shall the current Utility User Tax ordinance be amended to reduce the tax on telecommunications users from 6 percent to 5 percent; modernize the ordinance to reflect changes in federal and state law and to treat taxpayers the same regardless of technology; help fund essential municipal services including:

law enforcement,

fire protection;

libraries, parks, recreation, and

street maintenance

maintaining senior exemptions and all money staying local for services and facilities in the City of Salinas? [74 words “City of Salinas” =1 word]



Probably Yes 25.4%

Probably No 7.6%

Definitely No 9.8%

DK/NA 15.8%



FEATURES OF THE MEASURES

6. Now, let’s talk about the City services and facilities that would be maintained and enhanced with the funds generated by the measure/measures. For each of the following statements, please tell me if it would make you more or less likely to vote for the measure/measures.

If you heard the money would be used to ________, would you be more or less likely to vote for the sales tax measure/sales tax and utility tax measures? Is that much (more/less) likely or somewhat (more/less) likely?

Split Sample D, n=376 Mean Score

Much More Likely

Somewhat More Likely

No Effect

Somewhat Less Likely

Much Less Likely

DK/NA

A. Maintain rapid police response times 1.07 51.5% 20.3% 14.5% 5.9% 6.1% 1.8%

B. Enhance anti-gang and youth violence prevention programs

1.15 55.9% 20.7% 10.2% 6.1% 6.1% 1.0%

C. Maintain after-school programs for children and teens

1.17 55.3% 19.5% 12.4% 6.5% 4.5% 1.7%

D. Maintain senior services and senior center facilities

1.06 49.8% 22.1% 13.5% 6.8% 5.6% 2.2%

E. Update playground equipment to prevent injuries to children

1.00 48.3% 20.7% 15.1% 8.2% 5.8% 1.9%

F. Add and maintain City park playgrounds, courts, ball and playfields for youth and teen sports

1.01 47.7% 23.7% 12.8% 8.5% 5.7% 1.6%

G. Maintain and repair neighborhood streets and roads

1.03 48.5% 23.9% 12.1% 8.2% 5.6% 1.7%

H. Fix potholes .96 46.0% 23.2% 15.8% 8.2% 5.8% 1.0%

I. Keep streets from falling into disrepair .96 46.2% 23.6% 12.9% 9.1% 6.4% 1.8%

J. Maintain tree-lined streets .48 31.5% 21.1% 18.3% 12.8% 12.4% 3.9%

K. Replace the outdated police and emergency operation center to ensure stable communication in times of earthquakes or other disasters and to support the quickest possible emergency response times

.98 49.2% 19.9% 13.1% 9.3% 6.4% 2.0%

L. Keep libraries open 1.15 52.6% 24.1% 10.9% 5.8% 5.2% 1.5%

M. Provide space for children and teen activities such as after school programs, homework assistance, digital arts labs and reading programs at the library

1.12 53.5% 21.5% 12.2% 5.0% 6.3% 1.4%



Split Sample E, n=376 Mean Score

Much More Likely


No Effect

Somewhat Less Likely

Much Less Likely

DK/NA

N. Maintain crime and gang prevention programs

1.14 58.5% 17.3% 9.3% 5.7% 7.8% 1.3%

O. Maintain emergency and earthquake preparedness and response programs

.96 46.7% 25.0% 9.3% 8.3% 8.3% 2.4%

P. Maintain neighborhood police patrols 1.16 59.1% 16.5% 9.3% 5.6% 7.6% 1.8%

Q. Repair aging recreation centers to keep them open for youth and others

1.01 49.5% 23.4% 10.3% 7.2% 8.1% 1.4%

R. Enhance City parks to include more tables and barbeque areas

.29 32.4% 16.7% 13.8% 16.1% 18.7% 2.3%

S. Enhance City park lighting to make parks safer

.80 44.6% 23.0% 11.0% 9.6% 11.3% .5%

T. Maintain neighborhood services, including graffiti removal and vandalism prevention

.92 50.3% 18.7% 10.3% 9.3% 9.8% 1.7%

U. Maintain and repair major roads .98 51.2% 20.3% 10.0% 8.6% 8.6% 1.3%

V. Maintain sidewalks, handicap ramps, crosswalks and bicycle lanes

.94 48.4% 22.1% 11.2% 9.4% 8.1% .8%

W. Maintain street lighting and traffic signals .94 47.4% 23.0% 10.8% 8.2% 8.6% 2.0%

X. Provide secure police facilities that protect the safety of our officers and allow for the detention and prosecution of those who commit crimes in Salinas

1.11 56.8% 17.2% 10.2% 6.1% 8.0% 1.7%

Y. Update library facilities throughout the city

.94 49.9% 19.9% 9.7% 9.3% 9.1% 2.0%

Z. Maintain library hours, services and programs

.99 51.2% 21.0% 11.7% 7.0% 8.9% .3%

AA. Maintain recreational center hours and programs

.90 45.7% 23.6% 12.1% 8.3% 8.9% 1.4%

Computation of Mean Scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, “No Effect” = 0, “Somewhat Less Likely” = -1, and “Much Less Likely” = -2.



SUPPORTING STATEMENTS

7. During the next several months, voters will hear arguments from supporters in favor of the measure/measures we have been discussing. As I read each of the arguments for the measure/measures, please tell me if you would be much more likely or somewhat more likely to vote “YES” on the measure/measures, given the argument.

Here’s the (first/next) ___________. Does hearing this make you much more likely or somewhat more likely to vote “YES” – or does it have no effect on your opinion?


Much More Likely


No Effect

DK/NA

A. The measure/measures will give Salinas local control over local funds for local needs. No funds can be taken by the state

1.32 55.5% 18.9% 23.8% 1.8%

B. The measure/measures will help expand programs to identify and shut down drug and gang houses

1.34 56.6% 17.9% 23.5% 2.0%

C. The city has adopted long-term pension reform, greatly reduced the size of government, and won competitive grants for hundreds of thousands of dollars to support libraries and programs for youth. But state-imposed budget cuts continue to slash programs and we need a local source of revenue that the state can't take

1.27 50.4% 23.6% 23.9% 2.1%

D. We have a shortage of sports fields in Salinas and providing youth and teen sports adequate field space helps keep kids off the streets

1.21 50.0% 19.1% 29.5% 1.4%

E. Budget cuts have severely affected the Salinas Fire Department’s response times

1.22 50.1% 19.2% 28.3% 2.4%

F. The Salinas Police Station is over 50 years old and does not provide the technology to work effectively with other law enforcement agencies to fight gangs and drugs

1.23 50.0% 20.4% 27.5% 2.1%

G. Upgraded infrastructure funded by this measure/ measures is necessary to protect our quality of life, the character of our community, and local property values

1.14 43.9% 23.2% 30.0% 2.9%

H. Without the measure/measures, Salinas’s streets, roads, sidewalks and public facilities will start to deteriorate and fall into disrepair

1.21 48.0% 21.4% 27.9% 2.6%

I. Citizen oversight and independent audits have shown that Measure V funds have been spent as promised

1.14 45.0% 17.5% 31.6% 5.8%

J. All residents, businesses, and visitors from outside Salinas will pay their fair share to fund City services and maintain City streets and roads; the responsibility won’t fall solely on homeowners

1.25 52.6% 17.0% 27.9% 2.4%



Split Sample D, n=376

Mean Score

Much More Likely


No Effect

DK/NA

K. The measure/measures improves lighting, safety and public use of parks, to provide safe places to play and keep kids out of trouble

1.26 50.0% 23.0% 24.7% 2.4%

L. Improving local streets and making them safer will encourage local business to invest and create more local jobs

1.25 51.9% 18.2% 27.6% 2.2%

Split Sample E, n=376

Mean Score

Much More Likely


No Effect

DK/NA

M. The measure/measures requires independent citizen oversight, mandatory financial audits, and yearly reports to the community to ensure that all funds are spent as promised

1.29 54.1% 19.2% 25.3% 1.4%

N. Over a 5 year period, the State has taken more than $20 million dollars from Salinas to deal with the State budget deficit. This measure provides $10 million dollars a year from a protected and reliable source of local revenue to prevent severe cuts to critical resident services

1.17 46.8% 19.4% 30.5% 3.2%

O. The City has reduced staff by 20 percent, instituted pension reform, cut hours at City facilities, and cut and outsourced public programs to maintain essential services. Any further cuts will hurt essential services like public safety

1.18 47.1% 22.3% 29.0% 1.6%

P. This measure/measures is needed to maintain current levels of public safety and police services, including neighborhood patrols, and crime and gang prevention programs

1.29 51.7% 23.1% 23.6% 1.6%

Q. Three of the City’s fire stations are over 50 years old and need seismic retrofits, repair and improvements to ensure they are open after an earthquake or other natural disaster

1.27 52.2% 21.3% 25.7% .8%

R. The Steinbeck Library and most of the recreation centers are more than 50 years old and don’t provide the up-to-date technology for homework centers or after-school programs for our youth

1.19 48.7% 19.8% 29.8% 1.7%

S. The condition of City streets will continue to decline if roads are not reconstructed. It is important to fix the streets now so that they do not deteriorate further or cost even more to fix

1.24 49.4% 24.5% 25.5% .6%

T. The City has been very fiscally responsible, balancing budgets during the recession, but State take-aways are going to force the City to make severe cuts to essential services

1.11 42.9% 22.4% 32.4% 2.3%



Split Sample E, n=376

Mean Score

Much More Likely


No Effect

DK/NA

U. The measure/measures will create good paying construction jobs in Salinas, helping to improve the local economy

1.23 50.1% 21.0% 27.2% 1.7%

V. The measure/measures will provide space and programs for children and teen that keep them off the streets and out of trouble

1.33 55.4% 20.8% 22.5% 1.4%

W. The homicide rate in Salinas is among the highest in California, the measure/measures will help put police officers on the streets to solve this problem

1.33 55.4% 20.8% 23.0% .8%

X. The measure/measures will improve the Salinas regional sports facilities to attract tournaments and families to spend a few days in the area supporting local tourism, and give local youth a place to play

1.13 44.8% 21.0% 32.2% 2.0%

Only for Split Samples D & E, if ballot tests are Sample C, n=376

Mean Score

Much More Likely


No Effect

DK/NA

Y. Senior citizens and low income residents can receive exemptions from the Utility Users Tax

1.22 50.5% 19.8% 28.7% 1.0%

Z. The Utility Users Tax modernization will reduce the rate on telecommunications by 1 percent

1.10 42.7% 22.4% 32.8% 2.0%

Computation of Mean Scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, “No Effect” = 0.



OPPOSING STATEMENTS

8. During the next several months, voters will hear arguments from opponents against the measure/measures we have been discussing. As I read each of the arguments against the measure/measures, please tell me if you would be much more likely or somewhat more likely to vote “NO” on the measure, given the argument.

Here’s the (first/next): ___________. Does hearing this make you much more likely or somewhat more likely to vote “NO” on the measure/measures – or does it have no effect on your opinion?


Much More Likely


No Effect

DK/NA

A. With the current economy, stagnant home prices, and continued high unemployment, now is not the right time to raise taxes

.89 35.5% 14.5% 46.6% 3.3%

B. The City is responsible for the current budget problems, they can’t be trusted to manage the funds raised by this measure

.77 25.4% 22.9% 46.9% 4.8%

C. State politicians are trying to raise the statewide sales and income taxes in November. We just can’t afford another tax increase

.88 34.0% 17.6% 45.2% 3.2%

D. Increasing the sales tax in today’s economy will drive shoppers out of Salinas and hurt local businesses

.74 25.8% 19.0% 50.3% 4.9%

Split Sample E, n=376 Mean Score

Much More Likely


No Effect

DK/NA

E. The City wouldn’t need this measure if they hadn’t wasted Measure V tax dollars building things that were not in the plan

.79 27.5% 20.0% 47.1% 5.4%

F. There are no rules that direct the spending of these tax dollars, and no guarantee that the funds will be spent as promised

.98 35.0% 21.8% 37.3% 5.9%

G. If the sales tax measure passes, sales tax in Salinas will be among the highest in Monterey County

.82 29.9% 19.3% 47.6% 3.2%

H. The Utility Users Tax measure hurts seniors and those on fixed incomes, who can’t afford higher utility bills

.86 29.2% 23.6% 42.3% 4.9%

Computation of Mean Scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, “No Effect” = 0.



INFORMED BALLOT TESTS: SPLIT SAMPLE A (N=244)

-NEW SALES TAX

Now that you have heard more about the measure, let me read you the summary again:









shall the City of Salinas enact a half cent sales tax, that can’t be taken by the State, with citizens’ oversight, annual independent audits, with all funds spent only in Salinas? [74 words

“City of Salinas” =1 word]



Probably Yes 30.4%

Probably No 6.2%

Definitely No 15.8%

DK/NA 5.2%



INFORMED BALLOT TESTS SPLIT SAMPLE B (N=256)


Now that you have heard more about the measure, let me read you the summary again:












Probably Yes 27.2%

Probably No 12.1%

Definitely No 15.9%

DK/NA 4.4%



INFORMED BALLOT TESTS SPLIT SAMPLE C (N=252)


-UUT MODERNIZATION

Now that you have heard more about the measures, let me read you the summaries again:

Here’s the first measure:












Probably Yes 22.9%

Probably No 7.8%

Definitely No 16.1%

DK/NA 5.5%



Here’s the second measure:

12. Shall the current Utility User Tax ordinance be amended to reduce the tax on telecommunications users from 6 percent to 5 percent; modernize the ordinance to reflect changes in federal and state law and to treat taxpayers the same regardless of technology; help fund essential municipal services including:

law enforcement,

fire protection;

libraries, parks, recreation, and

street maintenance

maintaining senior exemptions and all money staying local for services and facilities in the City of Salinas? [74 words “City of Salinas” =1 word]



Probably Yes 24.6%

Probably No 9.8%

Definitely No 9.7%

DK/NA 10.2%



TAX DURATION THRESHOLD

13. The duration of the measure/ measures we have been discussing has yet to be decided. If you heard that the measure/ measures to protect and maintain City services would __________, would you vote yes or no on the measure/ measures? Is that definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)?

Definitely Yes

Probably Yes

Probably No

Definitely No

DK/NA

A. be ongoing 30.5% 19.5% 17.5% 25.1% 7.4%

B. last 14 years 36.0% 15.7% 19.7% 22.0% 6.5%

C. last 9 years 42.8% 18.7% 13.9% 19.8% 4.8%

D. last 4 years 53.4% 19.4% 7.3% 15.7% 4.2%



DEMOGRAPHICS

Now, just a few background questions for comparison purposes.

A. Do any children under the age of 18 live in your household?

Yes 38.4%

No 61.1%

DK/NA .5%

Those are all the questions I have for you. Thank you very much for participating.

B. Respondent's Gender [Recorded from voice]

Male 44.6%

Female 55.4%

Information From Voter File

All information is included in voter registration records, and these items will not be asked during interviews.

C. Age

18 to 29 15.8%

30 to 39 16.5%

40 to 49 17.5%

50 to 64 29.6%

65 and over 20.3%

Not coded .3%



D. Ethnic Surname

Hispanic 47.0%

Italian 2.2%

African American 1.2%

Chinese .9%

Jewish .7%

Vietnamese .3%

Japanese .3%

Armenian .1%

E. Homeownership Status

Owner 60.5%

Renter 39.5%

F. Phone Type

Cell phone 24.0%

Landline 76.0%

G. Individual Party

Democrat 62.9%

Republican 21.2%

Other 2.4%

DTS 13.5%



H. Household Party Type

Democrat (1) 29.8%

Democrat (2+) 23.1%

Republican (1) 8.1%

Republican (2+) 7.5%

Other (1) 7.5%

Other (2+) 2.8%

Democrat & Republican 6.7%

Democrat & Other 10.4%

Republican & Other 2.6%

Mixed 1.3%

I. Registration Date

2009 to present 26.4%

2005 to 2008 31.1%

2001 to 2004 15.4%

1997 to 2000 10.0%

1993 to 1996 4.6%

1981 to 1992 7.4%

1980 or before 5.1%

J. Voting History

No Poll Mail

June 2006 63.6% 13.9% 22.4%

November 2006 44.2% 23.4% 32.4%

November 2007 76.4% 4.2% 19.4%

February 2008 44.9% 19.9% 35.2%

June 2008 62.5% 9.4% 28.1%

November 2008 11.8% 34.0% 54.2%

May 2009 61.1% 10.3% 28.6%

November 2009 54.3% 11.1% 34.5%

June 2010 53.0% 12.7% 34.4%

November 2010 18.6% 21.9% 59.5%



K. Times Voted in Past Elections

1 of 10 15.8%

2 of 10 14.1%

3 of 10 11.4%

4 of 10 7.7%

5 of 10 6.8%

6 of 10 6.8%

7 of 10 7.3%

8 of 10 8.5%

9 of 10 9.7%

10 of 10 12.0%

L. Times Voted Absentee

1 of 10 23.5%

2 of 10 11.5%

3 of 10 9.6%

4 of 10 8.0%

5 of 10 7.1%

6 of 10 6.1%

7 of 10 7.4%

8 of 10 8.2%

9 of 10 7.5%

10 of 10 11.1%

M. Permanent Absentee Voter

Yes 72.2%

No 27.8%



N. Likely Absentee Voter

Yes 43.2%

No 56.8%

O. Geographic

TBD TBD

TBD TBD

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