chuong6-cac phuong phap du bao nang ca
DESCRIPTION
Các phương pháp dự báoTRANSCRIPT
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Xt m hnh:
Thng thng m hnh hi quy cn gi thit Nt khng t tng quan (Nt nhiu trng).Trong phn nay ta xt m hnh hi quy vi Nt c t tng quan.Hi qui vi sai s ARIMA
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Nu Nt c t tng quan, dng m hnh ARIMA biu din.V d: Biu din Nt bng m hnh ARIMA(1,1,1)Nt gi l sai s, et gi l nhiu.
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Ly sai phn cc bin:Nt c dng ARMA(1,1):
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Cc bc xy dng m hnhBc 1: c lng hm hi quy vi m hnh AR(1) hoc AR(2) cho sai s. M hnh ny gi l m hnh i din (proxy model).Bc 2: Nu sai s khng dng, ly sai phn cc bin. Sau lng hm hi quy vi m hnh AR(1) hoc AR(2) cho sai s.
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Cc bc xy dng m hnhBc 3: Nu sai s dng, xc nh m hnh ARMA ph hp vi sai s.Bc 4: iu chnh ton b m hnh bng cch s dng m hnh ARMA mi cho sai s.Bc 5: Kim tra xem chui et l nhiu trng hay cha.
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V d 1 Sn lng xe gn my hng nm ca Nht Bn t 1964-1989
Chart1
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13026
sn lng xe gn my
Sheet1
119641702
219651876
319662286
419673146
519684086
619694675
719705289
819715811
919726294
1019737083
1119746552
1219756942
1319767842
1419778514
1519789269
1619799636
17198011043
18198111180
19198210732
20198311112
21198411465
22198512271
23198612260
24198712249
25198812700
198913026
Sheet1
sn lng xe gn my
Sheet2
Sheet3
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p dng m hnh tuyn tnh:
Vi Sai s:
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ACF v PACF ca sai s cho thy AR(1) l ph hp.
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p dng AR(1) cho sai s, m hnh cui cng l:Cc tham s c lng
B SEB T-RATIO PPROX.PROB.AR1 .73632 .14778 4.982435 .00004872TIME 463.56123 30.81985 15.040994 .00000000CONSTANT 1662.42072 501.29920 3.316225 .00301025
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V d 2:
Xt s liu v lng du th bn ra hng thng v cc sn phm lin quan M t thng 1-1979 n 12-1991.
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Chart6
2.154
2.25
2.165
2.223
2.19
2.288
2.25
2.251
2.281
2.32
2.285
2.279
2.319
2.396
2.397
2.462
2.368
2.505
2.49
2.553
2.611
2.528
2.618
2.685
2.649
2.723
2.675
2.723
2.781
2.953
2.919
3.017
3.121
3.135
3.425
3.694
3.742
4.173
4.374
4.499
4.725
4.983
5.068
5.104
5.056
5.042
5.116
4.97
5.108
5.266
5.166
5.294
5.313
5.749
5.825
6.317
6.213
6.281
6.426
6.526
6.441
6.757
6.422
6.647
6.534
6.925
6.957
7.057
7.054
7.044
7.087
7.422
7.676
7.871
7.608
7.755
7.757
7.964
8.087
8.083
8.077
8.295
8.137
8.346
8.005
8.151
8.019
8.207
8.273
8.721
8.719
8.925
9.11
8.899
9.074
9.464
9.736
10.32
10.79
10.675
11.403
12.041
12.375
13.378
14.004
13.881
14.469
15.296
15.696
16.522
16.554
16.039
16.394
16.693
15.875
16.218
16.254
16.818
17.647
17.963
19.128
19.425
18.351
18.024
18.629
19.015
18.306
18.988
18.577
18.853
18.366
18.47
17.685
16.917
15.878
16.553
17.669
18.161
17.721
17.377
17.824
17.473
16.793
16.379
15.468
14.425
15.026
15.659
16.073
17.092
16.829
16.896
16.987
16.2
15.864
16.051
15.166
15.294
16.176
16.291
15.918
16.349
15.73
15.551
16.322
15.427
15.418
15.371
13.61
14.16
14.792
15.252
15.221
15.651
14.884
15.253
14.825
14.776
15.449
15.262
13.937
12.002
10.834
10.568
11.049
10.246
9.413
9.682
9.671
8.991
9.224
9.261
9.289
9.333
9.663
9.907
10.318
10.772
11.194
11.176
10.952
10.984
10.699
10.241
10.257
10.047
10.606
10.891
11.16
11.651
11.5
11.713
11.004
10.86
10.853
10.873
10.59
10.728
11.354
12.618
12.712
13.077
12.384
12.35
12.625
12.777
12.357
12.738
13.268
12.571
12.442
12.687
12.995
13.039
13.035
16.683
18.752
19.604
18.201
16.08
14.935
13.261
12.838
13.509
14.352
14.136
13.672
14.394
14.406
14.587
14.271
12.981
Petrol
petrol
DateChemicalsCoalPetrolVehicles
01-19713.89649.782.1544.367
02-19714.34647.0292.255.147
03-19714.31856.922.1655.418
04-19714.53654.3362.2234.897
05-19714.45450.4422.195.002
06-19714.55449.2982.2885.329
07-19714.05839.5372.253.537
08-19714.34256.1852.2513.94
09-19714.69354.4492.2815.226
10-19714.38911.8572.325.429
11-19714.28926.3272.2855.4
12-19713.99756.0322.2794.446
01-19724.35349.682.3195.072
02-19724.60949.1122.3965.707
03-19724.79454.4382.3975.76
04-19724.97549.8142.4625.807
05-19724.85952.8792.3685.865
06-19725.02750.0832.5055.909
07-19724.38240.9642.493.681
08-19724.79852.1692.5533.895
09-19725.07649.3742.6116.247
10-19724.97951.6712.5286.629
11-19724.84550.2972.6186.67
12-19724.7444.9042.6855.52
01-19734.88549.3792.6496.71
02-19735.57945.8932.7237.134
03-19735.74150.5472.6757.097
04-19735.9146.9992.7236.741
05-19735.78451.422.7817.006
06-19735.96246.6132.9537.169
07-19735.15243.8012.9195.419
08-19735.53655.8743.0174.667
09-19735.76948.3383.1216.227
10-19735.64354.383.1357.314
11-19735.6149.8253.4256.928
12-19735.46348.6683.6944.866
01-19745.68553.533.7425.611
02-19746.45249.8514.1735.762
03-19746.72951.0274.3745.638
04-19747.09454.1814.4995.891
05-19746.98757.4484.7256.229
06-19747.15847.8844.9836.485
07-19746.5849.2065.0685.169
08-19747.02651.6045.1045.236
09-19747.55652.4725.0566.921
10-19747.20160.2935.0427.703
11-19746.79133.5245.1166.985
12-19746.11839.984.974.49
01-19756.70255.1675.1084.816
02-19757.37651.8085.2665.254
03-19757.60952.6035.1665.589
04-19757.82953.7765.2946.004
05-19757.55855.9215.3136.037
06-19757.6256.7865.7496.439
07-19756.92345.965.8254.82
08-19757.60751.766.3175.18
09-19758.00356.0666.2136.589
10-19757.83860.3966.2816.886
11-19757.37553.9766.4266.531
12-19757.28254.8196.5265.888
01-19767.61552.5686.4416.765
02-19768.5353.7736.7577.675
03-19769.10760.9186.4228.295
04-19769.35859.1456.6478.194
05-19768.88257.9346.5348.256
06-19769.01159.686.9259.056
07-19768.00344.3186.9576.573
08-19768.62153.6227.0577.162
09-19769.32460.6347.0547.978
10-19768.958.9997.0448.005
11-19768.6558.787.0879.185
12-19768.14158.4147.4228.236
01-19778.31444.6797.6768.726
02-19779.50949.267.8719.364
03-197710.26466.7767.60810.777
04-197710.10560.5497.75510.081
05-19779.84462.4997.75710.112
06-19779.9363.0957.96411.035
07-19778.66949.5848.0878.554
08-19779.46557.7518.0837.826
09-197710.05569.518.07710.229
10-19779.467.668.29511.419
11-19779.17568.9798.13710.501
12-19779.16131.0028.3469.134
01-19789.36623.1158.0059.07
02-197810.30923.528.15110.6
03-197811.0138.7658.01911.641
04-197811.43459.538.20711.92
05-197810.84168.768.27311.78
06-197811.16165.5658.72112.035
07-19789.60553.648.7198.645
08-197810.24164.3958.9259.141
09-197810.91457.7759.1111.29
10-197810.70469.868.89912.987
11-197810.43569.2459.07412.532
12-197810.42559.639.46410.566
01-197911.11757.4519.73611.891
02-197911.70154.52510.3212.956
03-197913.26866.37910.7913.669
04-197912.3763.53110.67511.881
05-197912.95269.05811.40313.167
06-197913.05970.28712.04111.738
07-197911.5453.25212.3758.484
08-197911.95471.18113.3787.283
09-197912.8464.18914.00410.483
10-197912.42978.0713.88111.644
11-197912.20568.03714.46910.048
12-197912.24160.33915.2968.134
01-198012.94869.10515.6968.808
02-198013.64165.1816.52210.054
03-198014.68270.47316.5549.921
04-198013.98269.13516.0398.85
05-198013.21370.53116.3947.78
06-198013.33870.8316.6937.856
07-198011.8360.65615.8756.102
08-198012.80267.8916.2186.416
09-198014.27668.34416.2549.469
10-198013.98671.72316.81811.073
11-198013.36268.1317.6479.935
12-198014.45771.64717.9638.296
01-198114.41565.62219.1288.34
02-198115.12570.44619.4259.406
03-198116.63877.71818.35110.862
04-198115.76535.81618.02411.119
05-198115.56537.82918.62911.43
06-198116.1461.08319.01512.158
07-198114.06373.5118.3068.39
08-198114.73878.24818.9888.53
09-198115.74381.30318.5779.579
10-198114.3184.78418.85310.511
11-198113.82276.02718.3669.14
12-198114.13375.96618.477.516
01-198213.83366.44317.6857.148
02-198214.86170.34416.9178.727
03-198215.80682.93215.87810.142
04-198215.13273.15516.55310.538
05-198215.23770.65617.66910.931
06-198215.51471.23118.16111.624
07-198213.09859.86817.7218.605
08-198214.10272.09117.3778.69
09-198214.94867.20317.82410.024
10-198213.26970.06817.4739.432
11-198213.28463.04316.7938.622
12-198213.71962.17716.3797.694
01-198313.51662.45415.4689.703
02-198314.6460.39414.42511.56
03-198315.5968.55315.02612.127
04-198314.76361.55215.65911.729
05-198315.50162.91616.07312.571
06-198316.34461.44517.09213.71
07-198313.93554.90416.8299.897
08-198315.18872.89116.89611.304
09-198316.89469.92716.98713.493
10-198315.55171.3416.214.372
11-198315.3668.27215.86414.226
12-198315.92763.35416.05112.593
01-198415.56367.62215.16614.62
02-198416.48573.40815.29416.005
03-198417.59281.23216.17616.683
04-198417.03672.51116.29115.487
05-198417.09180.67615.91815.684
06-198417.86176.09416.34915.962
07-198415.40874.38115.7312
08-198416.32990.36515.55113.769
09-198417.27778.53816.32214.031
10-198415.85569.41915.42716.078
11-198415.43464.03915.41815.827
12-198416.29963.47515.37113.149
01-198515.91167.92113.6115.969
02-198516.61866.89714.1616.628
03-198517.75677.34714.79216.67
04-198517.13876.24115.25216.487
05-198516.73977.97915.22116.883
06-198517.66372.73115.65116.201
07-198514.9868.82114.88412.168
08-198515.93379.21215.25314.01
09-198517.16373.59614.82516.556
10-198515.90379.71114.77617.404
11-198515.31468.88115.44916.435
12-198516.19469.59315.26213.123
01-198616.24677.80413.93716.744
02-198616.94372.20912.00217.41
03-198617.06977.07810.83416.484
04-198617.3274.33310.56817.103
05-198616.42172.56811.04917.301
06-198616.97972.07110.24617.301
07-198614.74967.2539.41312.843
08-198616.14175.9129.68213.748
09-198617.46174.4079.67116.904
10-198615.93479.4128.99117.342
11-198615.58169.7749.22415.476
12-198616.24673.2019.26115.424
01-198716.39474.4739.28915.988
02-198717.35371.4479.33319.244
03-198717.88775.6099.66318.715
04-198717.78470.7689.90717.78
05-198717.95970.43610.31817.16
06-198718.70576.7810.77217.349
07-198716.47469.42711.19411.171
08-198717.65280.34811.17613.438
09-198719.06482.11810.95216.713
10-198717.7885.6310.98418.369
11-198717.678.91910.69917.067
12-198718.05379.24610.24114.055
01-198819.95775.36410.25715.5
02-198820.94276.77810.04718.475
03-198822.34383.96410.60619.423
04-198822.05375.35110.89118.686
05-198821.28673.97911.1619.646
06-198822.50476.44811.65119.733
07-198820.24369.19811.512.605
08-198821.89788.20611.71316.616
09-198822.81683.27211.00419.156
10-198821.87980.85310.8621.348
11-198821.67682.97310.85320.049
12-198822.10280.32410.87318.02
01-198922.45981.96910.5920.262
02-198923.13675.0410.72821.789
03-198923.68688.98111.35420.603
04-198923.97177.14512.61821.928
05-198923.24482.48612.71221.025
06-198924.26478.54413.07719.346
07-198921.81966.26912.38411.786
08-198922.66190.82412.3519.082
09-198923.60284.61812.62520.127
10-198922.18789.57412.77720.217
11-198921.80586.96512.35720.385
12-198922.35372.55412.73816.653
01-199022.13190.27613.26813.065
02-199023.1981.75612.57120.275
03-199024.54891.29212.44221.776
04-199024.25282.8812.68720.26
05-199023.50686.212.99522.523
06-199024.73684.27613.03923.033
07-199022.04979.53513.03514.133
08-199024.49391.51516.68320.11
09-199025.48782.81318.75219.682
10-199024.2693.07819.60422.197
11-199023.92986.46118.20117.212
12-199023.03175.48716.0811.784
01-199123.70185.8114.93515.467
02-199124.20582.59213.26117.002
03-199124.285.01212.83815.952
04-199124.97179.32413.50918.767
05-199124.5679.91714.35220.605
06-199124.99276.89614.13619.809
07-199122.56679.7213.67214.233
08-199124.03788.81814.39419.311
09-199125.04781.50414.40620.827
10-199124.11590.2314.58723.388
11-199123.03481.64414.27120.181
12-199122.5979.24412.98114.344
acfpacf
10.3820.38237.098
20.051-0.11137.76
3-0.077-0.06639.266
4-0.186-0.14848.156
5-0.153-0.03454.198
6-0.068-0.00655.389
7-0.071-0.08156.698
80.0430.07757.171
90.0810.00958.875
100.004-0.06158.88
110.1720.2266.728
120.2470.14382.947
130.007-0.15682.959
14-0.0370.03883.318
15-0.070.00984.643
16-0.0770.02286.253
170.1020.1689.055
180.068-0.0390.316
19-0.058-0.10891.231
200.010.03691.258
21-0.05-0.03591.94
220.0060.191.951
230.089-0.02994.151
240.011-0.07294.186
25-0.04-0.00394.626
260.0350.0694.981
27-0.03-0.00495.232
280.0280.0495.455
290.116099.328
30-0.016-0.06299.4
31-0.0340.03899.743
32-0.136-0.156105.09
33-0.1570.006112.31
340.0170.04112.39
350.045-0.07112.99
360.0030.041112.99
0.382
0.051
-0.077
-0.186
-0.153
-0.068
-0.071
0.043
0.081
0.004
0.172
0.247
0.007
-0.037
-0.07
-0.077
0.102
0.068
-0.058
0.01
-0.05
0.006
0.089
0.011
-0.04
PACF(TRE 25)
0.382
-0.111
-0.066
-0.148
-0.034
-0.006
-0.081
0.077
0.009
-0.061
0.22
0.143
-0.156
0.038
0.009
0.022
0.16
-0.03
-0.108
0.036
-0.035
0.1
-0.029
-0.072
-0.003
petrol
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chemicals
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Vehicals
Vehicels
Chart7
3.896
4.346
4.318
4.536
4.454
4.554
4.058
4.342
4.693
4.389
4.289
3.997
4.353
4.609
4.794
4.975
4.859
5.027
4.382
4.798
5.076
4.979
4.845
4.74
4.885
5.579
5.741
5.91
5.784
5.962
5.152
5.536
5.769
5.643
5.61
5.463
5.685
6.452
6.729
7.094
6.987
7.158
6.58
7.026
7.556
7.201
6.791
6.118
6.702
7.376
7.609
7.829
7.558
7.62
6.923
7.607
8.003
7.838
7.375
7.282
7.615
8.53
9.107
9.358
8.882
9.011
8.003
8.621
9.324
8.9
8.65
8.141
8.314
9.509
10.264
10.105
9.844
9.93
8.669
9.465
10.055
9.4
9.175
9.161
9.366
10.309
11.01
11.434
10.841
11.161
9.605
10.241
10.914
10.704
10.435
10.425
11.117
11.701
13.268
12.37
12.952
13.059
11.54
11.954
12.84
12.429
12.205
12.241
12.948
13.641
14.682
13.982
13.213
13.338
11.83
12.802
14.276
13.986
13.362
14.457
14.415
15.125
16.638
15.765
15.565
16.14
14.063
14.738
15.743
14.31
13.822
14.133
13.833
14.861
15.806
15.132
15.237
15.514
13.098
14.102
14.948
13.269
13.284
13.719
13.516
14.64
15.59
14.763
15.501
16.344
13.935
15.188
16.894
15.551
15.36
15.927
15.563
16.485
17.592
17.036
17.091
17.861
15.408
16.329
17.277
15.855
15.434
16.299
15.911
16.618
17.756
17.138
16.739
17.663
14.98
15.933
17.163
15.903
15.314
16.194
16.246
16.943
17.069
17.32
16.421
16.979
14.749
16.141
17.461
15.934
15.581
16.246
16.394
17.353
17.887
17.784
17.959
18.705
16.474
17.652
19.064
17.78
17.6
18.053
19.957
20.942
22.343
22.053
21.286
22.504
20.243
21.897
22.816
21.879
21.676
22.102
22.459
23.136
23.686
23.971
23.244
24.264
21.819
22.661
23.602
22.187
21.805
22.353
22.131
23.19
24.548
24.252
23.506
24.736
22.049
24.493
25.487
24.26
23.929
23.031
23.701
24.205
24.2
24.971
24.56
24.992
22.566
24.037
25.047
24.115
23.034
22.59
Chemicals
petrol
DateChemicalsCoalPetrolVehicles
01-19713.89649.782.1544.367
02-19714.34647.0292.255.147
03-19714.31856.922.1655.418
04-19714.53654.3362.2234.897
05-19714.45450.4422.195.002
06-19714.55449.2982.2885.329
07-19714.05839.5372.253.537
08-19714.34256.1852.2513.94
09-19714.69354.4492.2815.226
10-19714.38911.8572.325.429
11-19714.28926.3272.2855.4
12-19713.99756.0322.2794.446
01-19724.35349.682.3195.072
02-19724.60949.1122.3965.707
03-19724.79454.4382.3975.76
04-19724.97549.8142.4625.807
05-19724.85952.8792.3685.865
06-19725.02750.0832.5055.909
07-19724.38240.9642.493.681
08-19724.79852.1692.5533.895
09-19725.07649.3742.6116.247
10-19724.97951.6712.5286.629
11-19724.84550.2972.6186.67
12-19724.7444.9042.6855.52
01-19734.88549.3792.6496.71
02-19735.57945.8932.7237.134
03-19735.74150.5472.6757.097
04-19735.9146.9992.7236.741
05-19735.78451.422.7817.006
06-19735.96246.6132.9537.169
07-19735.15243.8012.9195.419
08-19735.53655.8743.0174.667
09-19735.76948.3383.1216.227
10-19735.64354.383.1357.314
11-19735.6149.8253.4256.928
12-19735.46348.6683.6944.866
01-19745.68553.533.7425.611
02-19746.45249.8514.1735.762
03-19746.72951.0274.3745.638
04-19747.09454.1814.4995.891
05-19746.98757.4484.7256.229
06-19747.15847.8844.9836.485
07-19746.5849.2065.0685.169
08-19747.02651.6045.1045.236
09-19747.55652.4725.0566.921
10-19747.20160.2935.0427.703
11-19746.79133.5245.1166.985
12-19746.11839.984.974.49
01-19756.70255.1675.1084.816
02-19757.37651.8085.2665.254
03-19757.60952.6035.1665.589
04-19757.82953.7765.2946.004
05-19757.55855.9215.3136.037
06-19757.6256.7865.7496.439
07-19756.92345.965.8254.82
08-19757.60751.766.3175.18
09-19758.00356.0666.2136.589
10-19757.83860.3966.2816.886
11-19757.37553.9766.4266.531
12-19757.28254.8196.5265.888
01-19767.61552.5686.4416.765
02-19768.5353.7736.7577.675
03-19769.10760.9186.4228.295
04-19769.35859.1456.6478.194
05-19768.88257.9346.5348.256
06-19769.01159.686.9259.056
07-19768.00344.3186.9576.573
08-19768.62153.6227.0577.162
09-19769.32460.6347.0547.978
10-19768.958.9997.0448.005
11-19768.6558.787.0879.185
12-19768.14158.4147.4228.236
01-19778.31444.6797.6768.726
02-19779.50949.267.8719.364
03-197710.26466.7767.60810.777
04-197710.10560.5497.75510.081
05-19779.84462.4997.75710.112
06-19779.9363.0957.96411.035
07-19778.66949.5848.0878.554
08-19779.46557.7518.0837.826
09-197710.05569.518.07710.229
10-19779.467.668.29511.419
11-19779.17568.9798.13710.501
12-19779.16131.0028.3469.134
01-19789.36623.1158.0059.07
02-197810.30923.528.15110.6
03-197811.0138.7658.01911.641
04-197811.43459.538.20711.92
05-197810.84168.768.27311.78
06-197811.16165.5658.72112.035
07-19789.60553.648.7198.645
08-197810.24164.3958.9259.141
09-197810.91457.7759.1111.29
10-197810.70469.868.89912.987
11-197810.43569.2459.07412.532
12-197810.42559.639.46410.566
01-197911.11757.4519.73611.891
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Petrol
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Vehicals
Vehicels
Chart8
49.78
47.029
56.92
54.336
50.442
49.298
39.537
56.185
54.449
11.857
26.327
56.032
49.68
49.112
54.438
49.814
52.879
50.083
40.964
52.169
49.374
51.671
50.297
44.904
49.379
45.893
50.547
46.999
51.42
46.613
43.801
55.874
48.338
54.38
49.825
48.668
53.53
49.851
51.027
54.181
57.448
47.884
49.206
51.604
52.472
60.293
33.524
39.98
55.167
51.808
52.603
53.776
55.921
56.786
45.96
51.76
56.066
60.396
53.976
54.819
52.568
53.773
60.918
59.145
57.934
59.68
44.318
53.622
60.634
58.999
58.78
58.414
44.679
49.26
66.776
60.549
62.499
63.095
49.584
57.751
69.51
67.66
68.979
31.002
23.115
23.52
38.765
59.53
68.76
65.565
53.64
64.395
57.775
69.86
69.245
59.63
57.451
54.525
66.379
63.531
69.058
70.287
53.252
71.181
64.189
78.07
68.037
60.339
69.105
65.18
70.473
69.135
70.531
70.83
60.656
67.89
68.344
71.723
68.13
71.647
65.622
70.446
77.718
35.816
37.829
61.083
73.51
78.248
81.303
84.784
76.027
75.966
66.443
70.344
82.932
73.155
70.656
71.231
59.868
72.091
67.203
70.068
63.043
62.177
62.454
60.394
68.553
61.552
62.916
61.445
54.904
72.891
69.927
71.34
68.272
63.354
67.622
73.408
81.232
72.511
80.676
76.094
74.381
90.365
78.538
69.419
64.039
63.475
67.921
66.897
77.347
76.241
77.979
72.731
68.821
79.212
73.596
79.711
68.881
69.593
77.804
72.209
77.078
74.333
72.568
72.071
67.253
75.912
74.407
79.412
69.774
73.201
74.473
71.447
75.609
70.768
70.436
76.78
69.427
80.348
82.118
85.63
78.919
79.246
75.364
76.778
83.964
75.351
73.979
76.448
69.198
88.206
83.272
80.853
82.973
80.324
81.969
75.04
88.981
77.145
82.486
78.544
66.269
90.824
84.618
89.574
86.965
72.554
90.276
81.756
91.292
82.88
86.2
84.276
79.535
91.515
82.813
93.078
86.461
75.487
85.81
82.592
85.012
79.324
79.917
76.896
79.72
88.818
81.504
90.23
81.644
79.244
Coal
petrol
DateChemicalsCoalPetrolVehicles
01-19713.89649.782.1544.367
02-19714.34647.0292.255.147
03-19714.31856.922.1655.418
04-19714.53654.3362.2234.897
05-19714.45450.4422.195.002
06-19714.55449.2982.2885.329
07-19714.05839.5372.253.537
08-19714.34256.1852.2513.94
09-19714.69354.4492.2815.226
10-19714.38911.8572.325.429
11-19714.28926.3272.2855.4
12-19713.99756.0322.2794.446
01-19724.35349.682.3195.072
02-19724.60949.1122.3965.707
03-19724.79454.4382.3975.76
04-19724.97549.8142.4625.807
05-19724.85952.8792.3685.865
06-19725.02750.0832.5055.909
07-19724.38240.9642.493.681
08-19724.79852.1692.5533.895
09-19725.07649.3742.6116.247
10-19724.97951.6712.5286.629
11-19724.84550.2972.6186.67
12-19724.7444.9042.6855.52
01-19734.88549.3792.6496.71
02-19735.57945.8932.7237.134
03-19735.74150.5472.6757.097
04-19735.9146.9992.7236.741
05-19735.78451.422.7817.006
06-19735.96246.6132.9537.169
07-19735.15243.8012.9195.419
08-19735.53655.8743.0174.667
09-19735.76948.3383.1216.227
10-19735.64354.383.1357.314
11-19735.6149.8253.4256.928
12-19735.46348.6683.6944.866
01-19745.68553.533.7425.611
02-19746.45249.8514.1735.762
03-19746.72951.0274.3745.638
04-19747.09454.1814.4995.891
05-19746.98757.4484.7256.229
06-19747.15847.8844.9836.485
07-19746.5849.2065.0685.169
08-19747.02651.6045.1045.236
09-19747.55652.4725.0566.921
10-19747.20160.2935.0427.703
11-19746.79133.5245.1166.985
12-19746.11839.984.974.49
01-19756.70255.1675.1084.816
02-19757.37651.8085.2665.254
03-19757.60952.6035.1665.589
04-19757.82953.7765.2946.004
05-19757.55855.9215.3136.037
06-19757.6256.7865.7496.439
07-19756.92345.965.8254.82
08-19757.60751.766.3175.18
09-19758.00356.0666.2136.589
10-19757.83860.3966.2816.886
11-19757.37553.9766.4266.531
12-19757.28254.8196.5265.888
01-19767.61552.5686.4416.765
02-19768.5353.7736.7577.675
03-19769.10760.9186.4228.295
04-19769.35859.1456.6478.194
05-19768.88257.9346.5348.256
06-19769.01159.686.9259.056
07-19768.00344.3186.9576.573
08-19768.62153.6227.0577.162
09-19769.32460.6347.0547.978
10-19768.958.9997.0448.005
11-19768.6558.787.0879.185
12-19768.14158.4147.4228.236
01-19778.31444.6797.6768.726
02-19779.50949.267.8719.364
03-197710.26466.7767.60810.777
04-197710.10560.5497.75510.081
05-19779.84462.4997.75710.112
06-19779.9363.0957.96411.035
07-19778.66949.5848.0878.554
08-19779.46557.7518.0837.826
09-197710.05569.518.07710.229
10-19779.467.668.29511.419
11-19779.17568.9798.13710.501
12-19779.16131.0028.3469.134
01-19789.36623.1158.0059.07
02-197810.30923.528.15110.6
03-197811.0138.7658.01911.641
04-197811.43459.538.20711.92
05-197810.84168.768.27311.78
06-197811.16165.5658.72112.035
07-19789.60553.648.7198.645
08-197810.24164.3958.9259.141
09-197810.91457.7759.1111.29
10-197810.70469.868.89912.987
11-197810.43569.2459.07412.532
12-197810.42559.639.46410.566
01-197911.11757.4519.73611.891
02-197911.70154.52510.3212.956
03-197913.26866.37910.7913.669
04-197912.3763.53110.67511.881
05-197912.95269.05811.40313.167
06-197913.05970.28712.04111.738
07-197911.5453.25212.3758.484
08-197911.95471.18113.3787.283
09-197912.8464.18914.00410.483
10-197912.42978.0713.88111.644
11-197912.20568.03714.46910.048
12-197912.24160.33915.2968.134
01-198012.94869.10515.6968.808
02-198013.64165.1816.52210.054
03-198014.68270.47316.5549.921
04-198013.98269.13516.0398.85
05-198013.21370.53116.3947.78
06-198013.33870.8316.6937.856
07-198011.8360.65615.8756.102
08-198012.80267.8916.2186.416
09-198014.27668.34416.2549.469
10-198013.98671.72316.81811.073
11-198013.36268.1317.6479.935
12-198014.45771.64717.9638.296
01-198114.41565.62219.1288.34
02-198115.12570.44619.4259.406
03-198116.63877.71818.35110.862
04-198115.76535.81618.02411.119
05-198115.56537.82918.62911.43
06-198116.1461.08319.01512.158
07-198114.06373.5118.3068.39
08-198114.73878.24818.9888.53
09-198115.74381.30318.5779.579
10-198114.3184.78418.85310.511
11-198113.82276.02718.3669.14
12-198114.13375.96618.477.516
01-198213.83366.44317.6857.148
02-198214.86170.34416.9178.727
03-198215.80682.93215.87810.142
04-198215.13273.15516.55310.538
05-198215.23770.65617.66910.931
06-198215.51471.23118.16111.624
07-198213.09859.86817.7218.605
08-198214.10272.09117.3778.69
09-198214.94867.20317.82410.024
10-198213.26970.06817.4739.432
11-198213.28463.04316.7938.622
12-198213.71962.17716.3797.694
01-198313.51662.45415.4689.703
02-198314.6460.39414.42511.56
03-198315.5968.55315.02612.127
04-198314.76361.55215.65911.729
05-198315.50162.91616.07312.571
06-198316.34461.44517.09213.71
07-198313.93554.90416.8299.897
08-198315.18872.89116.89611.304
09-198316.89469.92716.98713.493
10-198315.55171.3416.214.372
11-198315.3668.27215.86414.226
12-198315.92763.35416.05112.593
01-198415.56367.62215.16614.62
02-198416.48573.40815.29416.005
03-198417.59281.23216.17616.683
04-198417.03672.51116.29115.487
05-198417.09180.67615.91815.684
06-198417.86176.09416.34915.962
07-198415.40874.38115.7312
08-198416.32990.36515.55113.769
09-198417.27778.53816.32214.031
10-198415.85569.41915.42716.078
11-198415.43464.03915.41815.827
12-198416.29963.47515.37113.149
01-198515.91167.92113.6115.969
02-198516.61866.89714.1616.628
03-198517.75677.34714.79216.67
04-198517.13876.24115.25216.487
05-198516.73977.97915.22116.883
06-198517.66372.73115.65116.201
07-198514.9868.82114.88412.168
08-198515.93379.21215.25314.01
09-198517.16373.59614.82516.556
10-198515.90379.71114.77617.404
11-198515.31468.88115.44916.435
12-198516.19469.59315.26213.123
01-198616.24677.80413.93716.744
02-198616.94372.20912.00217.41
03-198617.06977.07810.83416.484
04-198617.3274.33310.56817.103
05-198616.42172.56811.04917.301
06-198616.97972.07110.24617.301
07-198614.74967.2539.41312.843
08-198616.14175.9129.68213.748
09-198617.46174.4079.67116.904
10-198615.93479.4128.99117.342
11-198615.58169.7749.22415.476
12-198616.24673.2019.26115.424
01-198716.39474.4739.28915.988
02-198717.35371.4479.33319.244
03-198717.88775.6099.66318.715
04-198717.78470.7689.90717.78
05-198717.95970.43610.31817.16
06-198718.70576.7810.77217.349
07-198716.47469.42711.19411.171
08-198717.65280.34811.17613.438
09-198719.06482.11810.95216.713
10-198717.7885.6310.98418.369
11-198717.678.91910.69917.067
12-198718.05379.24610.24114.055
01-198819.95775.36410.25715.5
02-198820.94276.77810.04718.475
03-198822.34383.96410.60619.423
04-198822.05375.35110.89118.686
05-198821.28673.97911.1619.646
06-198822.50476.44811.65119.733
07-198820.24369.19811.512.605
08-198821.89788.20611.71316.616
09-198822.81683.27211.00419.156
10-198821.87980.85310.8621.348
11-198821.67682.97310.85320.049
12-198822.10280.32410.87318.02
01-198922.45981.96910.5920.262
02-198923.13675.0410.72821.789
03-198923.68688.98111.35420.603
04-198923.97177.14512.61821.928
05-198923.24482.48612.71221.025
06-198924.26478.54413.07719.346
07-198921.81966.26912.38411.786
08-198922.66190.82412.3519.082
09-198923.60284.61812.62520.127
10-198922.18789.57412.77720.217
11-198921.80586.96512.35720.385
12-198922.35372.55412.73816.653
01-199022.13190.27613.26813.065
02-199023.1981.75612.57120.275
03-199024.54891.29212.44221.776
04-199024.25282.8812.68720.26
05-199023.50686.212.99522.523
06-199024.73684.27613.03923.033
07-199022.04979.53513.03514.133
08-199024.49391.51516.68320.11
09-199025.48782.81318.75219.682
10-199024.2693.07819.60422.197
11-199023.92986.46118.20117.212
12-199023.03175.48716.0811.784
01-199123.70185.8114.93515.467
02-199124.20582.59213.26117.002
03-199124.285.01212.83815.952
04-199124.97179.32413.50918.767
05-199124.5679.91714.35220.605
06-199124.99276.89614.13619.809
07-199122.56679.7213.67214.233
08-199124.03788.81814.39419.311
09-199125.04781.50414.40620.827
10-199124.11590.2314.58723.388
11-199123.03481.64414.27120.181
12-199122.5979.24412.98114.344
acfpacf
10.3820.38237.098
20.051-0.11137.76
3-0.077-0.06639.266
4-0.186-0.14848.156
5-0.153-0.03454.198
6-0.068-0.00655.389
7-0.071-0.08156.698
80.0430.07757.171
90.0810.00958.875
100.004-0.06158.88
110.1720.2266.728
120.2470.14382.947
130.007-0.15682.959
14-0.0370.03883.318
15-0.070.00984.643
16-0.0770.02286.253
170.1020.1689.055
180.068-0.0390.316
19-0.058-0.10891.231
200.010.03691.258
21-0.05-0.03591.94
220.0060.191.951
230.089-0.02994.151
240.011-0.07294.186
25-0.04-0.00394.626
260.0350.0694.981
27-0.03-0.00495.232
280.0280.0495.455
290.116099.328
30-0.016-0.06299.4
31-0.0340.03899.743
32-0.136-0.156105.09
33-0.1570.006112.31
340.0170.04112.39
350.045-0.07112.99
360.0030.041112.99
0.382
0.051
-0.077
-0.186
-0.153
-0.068
-0.071
0.043
0.081
0.004
0.172
0.247
0.007
-0.037
-0.07
-0.077
0.102
0.068
-0.058
0.01
-0.05
0.006
0.089
0.011
-0.04
PACF(TRE 25)
0.382
-0.111
-0.066
-0.148
-0.034
-0.006
-0.081
0.077
0.009
-0.061
0.22
0.143
-0.156
0.038
0.009
0.022
0.16
-0.03
-0.108
0.036
-0.035
0.1
-0.029
-0.072
-0.003
petrol
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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