chris dunstan decentralised energy roadmap

7/28/2019 Chris Dunstan Decentralised Energy Roadmap

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1. Building resilience

2. Why 100% renewables is not enough

3. The role of decentralised energy4. Tools for an energy revolution

5. Making it happen

Overview



2012

SummerArc)cSeaIce

Source: NASAhttp://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010900/a010919/index.html

1980



www.ipcc.ch/ www.ipcc.ch/

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/20th%20Anniversary%20BFM/pres-wg-2-ipcc.pdf

IPCC Projected Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change:

“Tipping points” at ~2oC of warming



Dealing with success

> Carbon emissions- falling

> Electricity consumption- falling

> Solar - booming> Wind - growing

> Coal power stations – unbuildable

> Renewable energy target – 20% by 2020

> Carbon price – in place



First they ignore you

Then they laugh at you

Then they fight you

Then you win.you are here

…

…

…



“Many anti-coal activists are deluding the public about their

real agenda. For them, development is the problem. Theyare really saying that energy consumption must be radically

cut. But, that means accepting unfed mouths, uncured

poverty and subsistence existence.”

Dr Nikki WilliamsCEO of the Australian Coal Association22 May 2013



Environmental

How do we protect and enhance…?

…capital

…resilience



Peak LoadManagement

What is Decentralised Energy (DE)?

Energy

EfficiencyDistributedGeneration

Cogeneration

Interruptible loads

Efficient motors & chillers

Efficient Lighting

Efficient showerheads

Efficiency Retrofits

Power factor correction

Gas Chillers

Ice Storage

Electric to Gas Hot Water

Standby Generation

Time of Use tariiffs

Biomass Generation

Small Gas Generation

Solar Photovoltaics

Behaviour change

Battery Storage / EVs



DEWildCard1:SolarPVAustralian solar industry:

> 1 million solar homes

• 1031MW installed capacity in 2011

• 9400 Employees in 2010

• Growth rate – 210% 2010-2011

International industry growth rate: 44% annuallySolar PV ($/W)



DE Wild Card 2: Electric Cars

The Mitsubishi i-MiEV

Q. How many Volts = Australia’stotal peak electricity demand?

A. ~800,000 (= 6% of the fleet)

(16kWh of batteries +54 kW electric generator)

(16kWh of batteries +150 km range)

(Chevy) Holden Volt



Wild cards interactions? e.g. EV + PVs

(Chevy) Holden VoltCost of Solar PV: 2001-2011

Solar is already at grid parity costin parts of Australia

What happens when you combine:cheap solar energy with... “free” battery storage and

abundant local generation?

(16kWh of batteries +54 kW electric generator)



DE Wild Card 3:

Empowering consumers (& 3rd parties) with data



When does leaving the grid(or “light connection”)

become viable?



Source: IEA,

World Energy Outlook 2011, Fig6.4

How to cut carbon emissions?



c o s t - e f f e c t i v e

e n e r g y s a v i n g s ( % )

Australia’s huge energy efficiency potential (2003)

Ministerial Council on Energy , Towards a National Framework for Energy Efficiency— Issues and challenges Discussion paper , November 2003

http://www.ret.gov.au/documents/mce/energy-eff/nfee/_documents/nfee_discussio.pdf



California:

Energy efficiency

now a major revenue stream



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

M W

P e a k D e m a n

d

Year

US Utility Demand Management (DM)- Actual Peak Load Reductions

Energy Efficiency

Peak Load Management

Total Aust. NEM Summer Peak Demand

(Sources: US Energy Information Administration & AEMO)

= 4.4% of US Peak Demand



25Source: AEMC , Future Possible Retail Electricity Price Movements, 2010; Treasury modelling (*Vic = 2012)

Comparison of electricity prices by state (2011/12)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

ACT Qld NSW VIC* SA

C e n t s p e r k i l o w a t t - h o u r ( A U D

2 0 1 0 )

GST

Carbon Price

ESS/REES

GGAS /Qld Gas

SRES

LRET

FiT

Metering

Retail

Distribution

Transmission

Generation



26Source: IPART, Review of regulated retail prices and charges for electricity 2013 to 2016, (2012)

Components of electricity price rises in NSW2007/08 - 2012/13



Network Investment: >$45 Billion by 2015(bigger and sooner than National Broadband Network)



205 km long 330 kV Dumaresq to Lismore line60 metre wide easement Cost - $210 million



Barriers

Technical Ins)tu)onal

Current

Technology

Current

Costs

Regulatory

Failure

Inefficient

Pricing

Payback

Gap

Split

Incen)ves

Lackof

Informa)on

Cultural

Barriers

Barriers to Energy Efficiency (& DE)

Institutional barriers are crucial

What it doesWhat it costs

What slows it down



Survey of Perceived Barriers

• Do stakeholders agree thesebarriers are real?

• Which barriers most important?

• Do different stakeholder groupssee barriers differently?

– 800 stakeholders;

– 200 replies

www.a2se.org.au/images/stories/files/a2se_isf_dm

%20barriers%20report%20june%202011.pdf



Survey Respondents

Category Respondents #Respondents

U)li)es EnergyU)lity–NetworkEnergyU)lity–Retailer

EnergyU)lity–Generator

295

1

Government GovernmentAgency–Federal

GovernmentAgency–State

GovernmentAgency–Local

2

20

8

EndUser EnergyConsumer–Commercial

EnergyConsumer–Industrial

12

2

DMProvider DemandManagementProvider

DemandManagementConsultancy

EnergySupplyConsultancy

8

17

14

Other Environmentalorganisa)onConsumerorganisa)on

Industryorganisa)on

Regulator

ResearchIns)tu)on

Other

168

3

2

26

28

*



18th

- Lack of Carbon Price -



Stakeholder Type:

Level of AgreementTop 10 Barriers to DE



Regulation Enticement(Incentives)

Information

Overcoming Barriers - The Policy Palette

Primary Instruments



Facilitation

Pricing

Targets

Regulation Incentives

Information

Regulation Enticement

Information

Coordination

Secondary Instruments

Overcoming Barriers - The Policy Palette

20 Policy Tools for EE & DE



20 Policy Tools for EE & DE

RegulatoryReform

Enticement

Information

Facilitation

Pricing reform

Targets

2

Coordination

1:DECoordina-onAgency

2:Decoupleelectricitysales

fromnetworkprofits

3:ReformNa-onalElectricity

Rules

4:StreamlineDGLicensing

5:ExtendretailerEEtargets

6:DEtargets&repor-ng

7:Resourceassessments&case

studies

8:DEhandbook&advisory

service

9:Networkplanninginfo

10:AnnualDEReview

11:Energyaudits&technical

support

12:Training&skills

development

13:Streamlinenetworknego-a-onprocess

14:DEOmbudsman

15:Publicrecogni-on&awards

16:DistributedEnergyFund

17:Reformfeedintariffs

18:CarbonPrice

19:Costreflec-vepricing20:Networksupportpayments

34

19

18

20

16

17

15

13 14

10

12

119

8

1

6

5

7



DE Roadmap on the North Coast

An Energy Savings Partnership:

> Focus on reducing peak demand and energy efficiency

> Reducing carbon and costs

> Engaging with the network businesses “Essential”

> Set ambitious collaborative targets with electricity networks

e.g. $100 million p.a. in avoided capex and consumers savings> Regular performance reporting

> Build into “business as usual” via economic regulation (AER)

– Make clean energy more profitable energy for networks

– Next regulatory period begins July 2014

> Engage in technical issues e.g. managing overvoltage anddisconnection of PV

> Engaging the community (the “shareholders”)40



Precedent: Queensland Energy Conservation &Demand Management Program

> In 2009/10, Qld Govt allocated $47 million for demonstration projects

> In 2010, Energex and Ergon sought and were allocated ~$220 million for Demand Management programs from the Australian Energy Regulator

> Energex and Ergon now have extensive plans, teams,budgets and targets in place to reduce demand growthand support DE.

> But under threat...

41



Conclusions

> Network investment is driving rapid rising power prices

> DE provides the best real prospect to limit increasing bills andcarbon emissions

> There is significant progress, but small compared to the potential

> DE faces major barriers

> Regulatory reform is essential, – but slow, and not sufficient

> Other tools required

> Improved data and information about DE is crucial

43



Some Questions

> How do we build resilience: Environmental, Economic, Social

> Conflict vs cooperation?

> How to engage the community?

> Engaging the electricity supply industry?

> Engaging (or not) in the bizarre complexity of regulatory reform?

> Staying calm and staying passionate?

44



Thankyou

chris dunstan decentralised energy roadmap

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