china's peaceful rise or development

8/15/2019 China's peaceful rise or development

1/42

China is seeking to expand its regional role and

influence in line with its historical attitude towardsits frontiers, Chinas goals might be defensive inorder to create a buffer against external influence,including United States ?

China is deliberately creating a sphere of influencein its backyard in which it will be the dominantpower ?

Discuss the peaceful rise or peacefuldevelopment of China in light of the two

statements.

CC 6290 China and Southeast Asia:

Politics, Economics and Regional Order

PRESENTATION


2/42

BACKGROUND

CHINA

ASEANCENTRAL & NE ASIA

AFRICA

CONCLUSION


3/42

BACKGROUND

CHINA


AFRICA

CONCLUSION


4/42

A New Path for Chinas PeacefulRise and the Future of Asia

Zheng Bijian (Vice President of

the Central Party School of CPP)

President Hu Jintao

2003 Visit France

Regular meetings of PoliticalBureau

Premier Wen Jiabao

2003 Visit United States

ORIGINS


5/42

Counter China Threat theories

Emphasize Chinas peaceful way in

emerging as a world power

OBJECTIVES

IS

Opportunities

Status Quo

Prosperity and progression

IS NOT

Threats

Change

Instability or regression


6/42

DEVELOPMENT replaces RISE

rise evokes apprehension among Chinas neighborsand strategic competitors

A sign of Chinas sensitivity towards its international

audience

CHANGE OF WORDING

Confucian pluralistic world view : Harmony in diversity (heerbutong)

China as a rising power will not seek to challenge the UShegemonic position, despite it will continue to practice its ownstyle of socialism

keep on peaceful development road thro diplomacy andinternal policy

IDEOLOGY


7/42

BACKGROUND

CHINA


AFRICA

CONCLUSION


8/42

CHINA


9/42

HISTORICAL

ATTITUDE


10/42

Tributary States / Vassal states / SinocentrismTributary States / Vassal states / Sinocentrism

InIn pre-modernpre-modern timestimes Viewing China as the only civilization in the worldViewing China as the only civilization in the world

Foreign nations or ethnic groups as "barbariansForeign nations or ethnic groups as "barbarians Tribute for China : Symbolic Recognition and reinforcementTribute for China : Symbolic Recognition and reinforcement

"The Emperor of the land where the sun rises sends a letterto the Emperor of the land where the sun sets to ask if youare healthy?

( ) Year 581 618, SuiDynasty

HISTORICAL

ATTITUDE


11/42

Hu Jintao

Sorry, no more apology


12/42

Chinas Economic Growth 1981-

2005


13/42

Chinas Economic Growth 2006

World Economic Forecast 2005 -2008


14/42

Assumed Average Growth Followed the trend 1980 - 2005

PROJECTED TOTAL GDP OF US, JAPAN & CHINA2005 2050Measured in Nominal Dollars


15/42

GDP per person


16/42

Assumed GDP and Population Followed the trend 1980 - 2005

PROJECTED GDP per HEAD OF CHINA as % of USs2005 2050Measured in Nominal Dollars


17/42

Regional Power: YES

Weakness: Still 10 years behind modernization

Pragmatic way to go

A LITTLE SUMMARY


18/42

BACKGROUND

CHINA


AFRICA

CONCLUSION


19/42


20/42

Friendliness and companionship toneighbors

Calming, enriching and befriending

The 10-Nation ASEAN will help the Association to play abigger role in the international and regional affairs.

Meanwhile, we believe the enlargement of the ASEAN willbenefit the long-term peace and stability of Asia, which is inaccordance the trend of global multi-polarization.

Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Wang Yi , 1999

Good Neighborliness policy:

ASEAN


21/42

Trade between China & ASEAN (US $)

Trade & Finance

1997 25.4 billion

2003 78.3 billion

2005 130.4billionAfter work began on the Sino-ASEAN free trade zone on July 20 last

year, leading to tariff reductions for approximately 7,000 categoriesof goods, China and ASEAN have entered a new stage in terms ofeconomic cooperation and trade ties.

Yi Xiaozhun, Vice minister of Commerce of PRC


22/42

US$1 billion in financialassistance to Thailand

US$4-6 billion for the IMF

programme to support SEA

Trade & Finance

ACFTA / CAFTA 2010


23/42

Lots of Documents and Paperssssss

Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in South China

Sea Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia

Joint Declaration on Strategic Partnership: Politicalsecurity, economic, cultural, regional andinternational cooperation

Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity

Protocol to the Treaty on Southeast Asia NuclearWeapon Free Zone (Coming Soon)

Politics and Security


24/42

ASEAN : vital diplomatic space for China

China will make strong efforts to maintain goodrelations with ASEAN, a showcase to the world (Zheng)

Calculative strategy

A Little Summary


25/42

BACKGROUND

CHINA


AFRICA

CONCLUSION


26/42

Shanghai CooperationOrganization

Member countries:China

Kazakhstan

KyrgyzstanRussia

TajikistanUzbekistan

Observer Countries:

IndiaIran

MongoliaPakistan

Security and Stability : Central andNortheast Asia


27/42

Six Party Talk : North Korea


28/42

The two things China fears the most are a NorthKorean collapse and another war on the Koreanpeninsula BBC

The best situation for China is a relatively obeying

North Korean regime which would continue tosurvive

Six Party Talk : North Korea


29/42

BACKGROUND

CHINA


AFRICA

CONCLUSION


30/42

China's development is peaceful, open, cooperative and harmoniousin nature.

We aim to build a harmonious society at home, and work with othercountries to build a harmonious world of enduring peace and common

prosperity

more than 100 years in China's modern history, the Chinese peoplewere subjected to colonial aggression and oppression by foreignpowers and went through similar suffering and agony that the

majority of African countries endure.

Chinese President Hu Jintao

At University of Pretoria on February Africas visit

Histories


31/42

Kung Fu II

Director: Stephen Chow

Casino Royale

Director: Stanley Ho


32/42

Chinas oil consumption


33/42

China has used its veto at the UN Security Councilto block moves to impose sanctions on Sudan unlessit stops the fighting in Darfur.

Mr Hu had urged the Sudan Government "to workmore earnestly to get the rebels who did not signthe Darfur peace agreement to join the process". Hesaid that Mr Hu stressed to Mr Bashir: "You have toresolve this problem.

respect the sovereignty of Sudan," while writing offdebts and providing an interest-free loan to build anew presidential palace.

Chinas Attitude


34/42

There have been some mixed signals,obviously," said U.S. State Departmentspokesman Sean McCormack in Washington

International Responses

"There is a big role for China," said a BritishForeign Office official. "It has huge influence inSudan. It has been helpful so far but we haveurged it, through prime ministerial and otherhigh level contacts, to do more.

We want it to press Sudan not to carry out

further bombing in Darfur and to play its partin renewing the political process and helpingthe expansion of the peacekeeping force."


35/42

Among Africans, the concerns about risingChinese clout are more often economic.

Textile mills from Nigeria to South Africa haveclosed amid a flood of inexpensive Chinese

imports.

Chinese purchases of mining concessions havestirred nationalist backlashes.

African Reaction


36/42

BACKGROUND

CHINA


AFRICA

CONCLUSION


37/42

Terrorism

Nuclear Proliferation

Oil & Gas Fields between China and Japan

HIstoriesssss of Sino-Japanese war

China Threat

New Colonialism

Taiwans independence

High Unemployment Rate

Wide Income Gap

Corruption

International and Internal

Environment


38/42

Deployment of "soft power" - aid, trade and thepromotion of a political model which puts developmentbefore democracy.

Jing Huang, of the Brookings Institution in Washington,says this is the most potent threat from China to theWest: "What it really challenges is a value system. Whowe are and what we want to be."

Potential power over other nations, howeverbenevolent its purpose leads inevitably toimperialism.

Robert Taft, U.S. Senator 19391953

Skepticism


39/42

Rise implies that others must decline, at least in a relative sense

while development suggests that Chinas advance can bringothers along


40/42

Concept

Both directs to internal and externalenvironment

Nature

No longer military or occupationDifferent from 15th to 18th centuriessuperpowerImpossible and not feasible for China to be

assertiveEconomic diplomacy

Future Outlook

More on negotiations, cooperation, economicmeasures

Peaceful Development


41/42

PEACEFUL RICEMade in New Peking Restaurant, using Japanese post WWII recipe

Distributions:China and neighboring countries including Japan, North & South Korea,Taiwan, ASEAN


42/42

REFERENCES

Yongnian ZHENG, Sow Keat TOK (2005) Chinas Peaceful Rise:Concept and Practice, China Policy Institute , University ofNottingham

Ong Keng Yong, Securing a Win-Win Partnership for ASEAN andChina

Cai Bingku, Chinas Peaceful Development and relations withits East Asian Neighbors

Thank You Very Much~~