Chichester BIDAnnual Review

2014

Chichester district’s population was 113,794 in the 2011 Census, growing by 7% since 2001.

The largest age group was 45-59, higher than the national average. Chichester District has a notably high 65+ population - almost one in four.

‘Professional’ occupations are the highest occupation group in the district (19%), with the proportion of managers, directors and senior officials higher than regional and national averages.

Chichester BID was formally launched in April 2012 with a five year term.

Eligible premises within the BID area pay a levy equivalent to 1% of their rateable value towards the BID.

With an annual levy income of approx. £280,000 the BID team are able to invest in projects and events designed to improve and encourage prosperity within the scheme’s area, based on four principle objectives.

Contents

Introduction 3

Footfall 4

Retail 5

Property 6

Crime 7

Car Parks 8

Events 9

Weather 12

Transport 12

Notes 13

Presented by

www.noggin.bi

April 2015

This document is intended to provide an independent evaluation of Chichester BID’s activities and the influence of various factors on the local area.

Chichester BID has commissioned Noggin to collate, analyse and report upon various sets of data available locally. Noggin will also make recommendations as to how data collection can be improved in future.

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2014 HeadlinesFootfall was up in 2014, bucking national trends

Historically ‘strong’ periods are weakening

Goodwood continues to draw footfall down

New Retail figures uncover late 2014 growth

Nearly two thirds of properties are retail

Crime rates steady after previous drops

Train station figures continue to grow

Prolonged rain caused big footfall shifts

IntroductionAfter some difficult economic times we are slowly beginning to see how Chichester, like so many British cities, is shaping up again post-recession.

Indeed, in recent years it seems like many factors have weighed in on High Street performance. The faltering economy; a phenomenal interest in Click & Collect; the rise (and demise) of large supermarkets and chains.

The effects of all of these are borne out in Chichester’s footfall data. As you will see over the following pages, we have a history of footfall going back to late 2006. Enough to see year-on-year changes for the city, and it’s relatively good news.

Whilst Chichester has seen its share of falling numbers, the relative stability and – more recently – slight rises look even more promising when we consider that national figures have been declining annually for at least the last six years.

Whereas footfall might measure the visitors in the city, only the retailers can give us a true appreciation of how this translates to sales.

From May 2014, the BID began to collect retail performance figures across a range of independents and chain stores. These kinds of details tell us all whether our efforts are indeed translating into success at the tills.

The retail figures to date are a start, and barely scratch the surface. I encourage these to be developed and more widely collected, as these figures are vital pieces of feedback for the community.

Indeed, the same can also be said of footfall. While the existing camera above East Street has collected useful data for over eight years, it is both technically and geographically limited.

We see this play out in our events review, where some seemingly positive events appear to ‘cause’ a dip in footfall. In reality, these events might’ve been quite successful, but a single camera will fail to capture the full picture and – when reading the results – one must bear this in mind throughout.

The broader data: car parks, traffic, transport and so on, tell us more about the city as a whole and how each part contributes to the experience of its visitors, workers and residents.

It also helps inform us of the implications of change. For instance, looking at how the change to pay-on-exit at Avenue de Chartres affects both the car park itself, and the wider area.

Such information also helps the BID (and its levy payers) make informed decisions about whether to support or object to important local changes.

All of this is necessary to understand how and why the city is changing and – most importantly – how to respond and capitalise on these changes.

For me, this is most noticeable in the week-by-week footfall figures. Since 2006, the rule of thumb had been pretty clear in Chichester. Summer is busiest; Spring and September are weak; things pick up again for Christmas.

However, 2014 was uncharacteristically flat. Busy periods were quieter; quiet times were busier. It could be the weather; it could be more subtle.

If 2015 continues or even advances this effect, it may well begin to affect the way we run businesses, as any seasonal variation diminishes. Fewer high and low periods; more sustained trade.

I suspect what we are seeing is more likely a combination of factors, particularly as the way we use the High Street is rapidly evolving, both from our own actions and following national trends.

Whatever Chichester becomes in the next five, ten, twenty years, we all need to be aware of the changes and make the most of any new opportunities that arise as a result.

Sven Latham Director, Town & City Centres Noggin Ltd

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FootfallSince the installation of the camera in late 2006, the bleak economy has shown its effects on Chichester, with footfall almost immediately showing a decline.

Footfall continued to drop throughout 2009 and 2010, with the first signs of recovery only emerging in 2011.

This was sustained in 2012 but fell again in 2013.

In 2014, footfall begins to improve again and preliminary results for 2015 suggest that this figure is continuing to grow.

Compared to national high street averages, Chichester has had a mixed bag of results: 2012 was undoubtedly a success story, with growth where other high streets saw decline. In contrast, 2013 fell steeper than the national average.

The slight improvement in 2014 is at odds with national trends, which show continued decline in High Streets elsewhere in the UK.

Patterns

Summer months had traditionally seen the best monthly figures, with June, July and August noticeably busier.

A quieter autumn and winter was usually punctuated by a strong December.

While these high and low points continue in 2014, they are less extreme than in previous years. Indeed, 2014 has been a generally steady year throughout.

March, normally a quiet month, has seen a respectable footfall

count this year. This pattern has continued throughout the summer, only dipping in October.

The usual summer peak simply hasn’t happened in 2014. While these months still brought a respectable footfall, we are not seeing the extremes in previous years.

Indeed, this is the first year (since 2006) that December’s footfall has exceeded any other month.

Busy Times

The three busiest hours for 2014 were all recorded on the same day, 22 December, between noon and 3pm. Unsurprisingly, the following twelve busiest hours are also in the same pre-/post-Christmas rush.

5 June recorded the next highest footfall on East Street. This appears to be weather-related. May/June 2014 was a particularly miserable period across the south of England and the three preceding days brought heavy rain and thunderstorms. On the 5 June respite arrived, with drier conditions, and it appears shoppers took the opportunity to return to the city centre before the rainclouds reconvened.

Other busy periods included the Saturday of the Easter weekend (19 April; noon-1pm); 22 November (noon-1pm); 24 May (11am-1pm) and 29 March (noon-1pm).

Many of these days did not coincide with specific known events or dates of note, but looking back through weather archives they do appear to correspond with prolonged wet periods.

Busy Days

Saturdays and Fridays have traditionally been the two busiest days in Chichester, with Wednesdays usually emerging in third place. Sundays are the quietest day across the week, with Mondays quietest among weekdays.

The proportional ‘strength’ of each day is changing, and the gap between all extremes is weakening: Saturdays are becoming less key; Sundays and other weekdays are more important.

In 2009 an average Saturday would account for 23% of overall footfall. In 2014 this dropped to 20%. At first glance perhaps not a significant change, but this is a shift of several thousand visits per day.

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RetailCrucially, this appears to be a shift in habits rather than an absolute loss. Sunday footfall has increased by a similar degree, and Monday-Thursday figures are all slightly up against previous years. Friday is the only other day suffering, as the last three years have all shown slight declines.

Operating Hours

The pattern of hourly footfall changes by weekday and by season. It is perhaps unsurprising to learn that footfall in winter tended to be concentrated towards daytime hours, whereas summer footfall was more spread out throughout the day.

This is particularly evident on Saturdays, where the 8-11am period tended to be proportionally more popular in the summer, as is 4-8pm. Summer footfall tended to peak around midday, whereas in winter it was between 1-3pm.

Wednesday was the busiest mid-week day, and showed a slightly more complicated pattern.

Wednesday mornings were consistent throughout the seasons, and peak period was between noon and 2pm irrespective of season. Come 3pm, summer tended to be proportionally busier. This was true both before and during the school holidays.

Wednesday afternoons and early evenings were notably busy in the early months of 2014 (January to April) with a higher footfall share between 6-9pm. This was a pattern not shared with other weekdays, which tended to drop off after 6pm.

Springboard collects retail data from ten businesses in Chichester, comprising a mixture of independent and chain stores.

Retail performance figures are collected and aggregated anonymously. We have no way of identifying any retailer’s individual figures.

Data collection began in May 2014 so the breadth of useful information is – at time of printing – limited to the latter half of 2014.

As data collection continues we shall be able to build a more complete picture of the city’s retail performance from the contributors.

The figures provided at present give us a rough idea of weekly performance, as seen below, from mid-June to December 2014. Accuracy is low (for boring statistical reasons) and should be taken as indicative only.

The first week of May 2014 provides us with a reference point (100 on the vertical scale). Subsequent weeks are compared to the first, so an index of 105 is 5% higher than the first week’s figures (at 100).

With the retail figures we see a relatively steady climb all the way through from May to the Christmas period, with dips in September (weeks 37-39), and a second dip at the beginning of November (week 45).

When comparing spend with footfall we get a rough idea of how much people are spending.

Late September/early October (weeks 39-41) appears to offer quite high spend ratio (i.e. fewer people spending more).

The summer months, despite bringing high footfall figures, appear to show relatively low spend per visitor.

Various factors (accuracy; low sample rate) make the detailed analysis difficult at this stage – again, the figures should be treated as indicative only and further analysis & data capture is required.

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Of the 565 occupied commercial properties within the BID area , some 62% of these are retail premises. Business Services forms another 22%; Eateries 14%. 2% of businesses within the directory were not identified.

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In July 2014, the BID directory listed 96 vacant properties, 15% of the total premises listed.

Of retail properties, Clothes stores form the largest group of shops, with Health & Beauty following. An assortment of other categories contributes to a diverse range of shops across the City.

Retail Type CountClothing 71Health & Beauthy 54Gifts & Collectibles 18Furniture 14Property Agents 26Other 180

The Business Services sector is dominated by HR and Financial Services companies.

Business Service Type CountHR 49Financial Services 28Marketing & Sales 15Suppliers 15Legal & Secretarial 17IT 6Business Planning 3

PropertyRestaurants and Cafés make up nearly two thirds of Eatery establishments in the City centre, with Public Houses contributing another 22%.

Eatery Type CountRestaurant 20Café 26Pub 17Take Away 6Hotel 5Sandwich Bar 5

Alex Medhurst of chartered surveyors Medhursts in Chichester describes the state of the property market:

In 2014, the commercial property market in central Chichester saw several movements. The new Permitted Development planning rules saw a number of offices removed from the market to be converted to residential use. This trend is continuing as owners seek to exploit the limited time available for this government initiative designed to invigorate town centres. The largest office move was Thomas Eggar solicitors moving across the road into the north wing of the District Council offices at East Pallant House. This prevented a major local employer from moving out of the city and also makes good use of surplus council offices.

On the retail front, vacant units were taken up as they became available. We saw Vodafone expand from North Street into a larger unit in East Street. Austens the jewellers also expanded into the former LK Bennett unit in East Street. The only retail casualty was Jessops and a pop up shop made good use of the unit in East Street up to Christmas. Leases expiring and other pressures resulted in fashion retailers Arabella, Mousetrap, Rowlands of Bath, Grumpy Old Men and Warehouse vacating. Field & Trek and Phones 4 U also took advantage of lease expiries. However the voids refilled relatively quickly and whilst retail rents have not yet returned to pre-2007 levels, there remained a healthy list of traders keen to secure good positions in Chichester.

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Home Office figures show the number of crimes committed in the BID area has increased slightly in 2014, with 843 reports this year versus 827 in 2013.

Both years are significantly lower than 2011-2012 figures, and when graphed we see quite how far this has dropped in the last few years.

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The figures show a slight increase in shoplifting offences recorded in 2014, with 215 incidents recorded in 2014. Drugs and Public Order offences have also increased.

For these figures, we must stress a number of caveats.

First, Home Office crime categories have been subject to various changes, and crime categories have been introduced/replaced over the last few years. This can lead to an apparent shift in crime stats (for instance addition of Bicycle Theft in 2013).

Second, it ought to be noted that these figures show reported crimes only. Naturally any matter not dealt with by the police will not be recorded here.

Finally, for anonymity reasons, only the general location is provided in these reports. Some incidents may have occurred outside the BID boundary; others within but not recorded here. Accuracy varies by location but tends to be accurate to street level.

The local ChiBAC scheme collects data for city-wide crime reporting and resolution (so some figures cover non-BID areas).

For the performance year 2013/14 detection rate was 69% in the city, whereas district-wide rate was 36%.

ChiBAC encourages the use of Community Resolutions, a form of restorative justice whereby the victim/retailer/licensee may opt to resolve the matter by agreeing a series of actions with the offender.

This reduces any necessary paperwork, and makes it cost effective for all involved.

As a “solved” crime, the incident appears on formal records but the offender is not convicted and not criminalised – a useful approach when dealing with (for instance) shoplifting by minors.

In the period April 2014-April 2015, of 141 crimes dealt with by the Chichester City Neighbourhood policing team, 69 (49%) were dealt with via Community Resolutions.

ChiBAC also operates a data sharing agreement with the police. For the night time economy, between 100 and 120 photos of banned people are usually shared in this way.

For other times, photos are used for awareness rather than exclusion. Typically 10-12 photos per month are shared in this way; approx. 100-140 per year.

In the April 2014-March 2015 period some 1464 incidents were reported. Of these, 16% resulted in arrests.

327 (22%) were police initiated; 990 (68%) were ChiBAC initiated; 155 (11%) were CCTV initiated. Note some incidents may have been initiated by more than one source.

Crime

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Short Stay

Chichester District Council provided us with summary ticket figures for six major short-stay car parks in the city. These covered machine sales between April 2013 and March 2014.

Tickets are charged between the hours of 8am and 6pm Monday-Saturday, and 10am to 5pm Sunday. Season tickets for applicable car parks are not included in these figures.

The figures show that a large proportion of tickets are for one hour or less (38-43%). The next most popular ticket is a 2 hour ticket (32-35%) followed by 20 minute and 3 hr tickets - between 10 and 13% of each.

We note that Mon-Sat visits tend to be shorter, with visitors spending longer in the city on Sundays.

There are very few visitors making use of Short Stay facilities for longer than 5hrs - which seems sensible - and almost none on Sundays. Shorter charging periods and Sunday trading rules are likely to be the reasons here, as well as the likelihood of tradespeople making use of parking spaces during the week.

All days show a drop in January of approximately 33%. At other times Mon-Sat figures, which tend to remain largely static, whereas Sundays appear to follow footfall figures more closely.

Car ParksLong Stay

Records for the four long stay car parks are intermittent for 2014, with data available from the beginning of June.

Using the available data, we see an increase throughout the year for both Avenue de Chartres and Cattle Market; fairly consistent figures for Westgate and mixed results for Northgate.

Car park utilisation is measured every 15 minutes, showing the number of spaces occupied at each interval. A fully utilised car park would have all its spaces occupied at all hours of the day.

Some car parks operate with reduced capacity, for instance Cattle Market during market hours, which must be considered when calculating utilisation as a percentage.

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EventsBlack Friday

An American import, Black Friday arrives the day after Thanksgiving (fourth Thursday in November) in the US. It traditionally marks the start of the Christmas shopping season with retailers offering promotional deals, discounts and other incentives.

In the UK, 2014 saw the first significant efforts by retailers here to mirror the American success, with many high street chains advertising big discounts on products.

Chichester saw a modest increase in footfall on Black Friday (28 November) and the surrounding dates, with a 25% rise in East Street traffic on the day itself. Christmas Lights Switch-on and late-night shopping will undoubtedly have also contributed to the week’s general 7% uplift in footfall.

National figures suggest that Black Friday displaced some early December trade, and this is played out in Chichester’s figures with a lower than expected early December performance.

However, after a short-lived dip we begin to see figures rise again in the weeks immediately prior to Christmas.

Christmas

2014 has seen a marginal improvement in footfall, with 753,331 counts measured on East Street. This is compared to 2013, where 740,526 was recorded between December 1st and December 24th.

Neither year has managed to match figures from 2012 (791,912) where the busiest day recorded 71,566 counts. The highest December figure in 2014 was Monday 22nd, with 52,734.

While we’re not seeing the same daily peaks, it’s worth bearing in mind that Christmas Day falling on different days of the week will affect how many working days fall after the last Saturday prior to Christmas, and therefore the ‘pressure’ to shop on respective days will be altered.

Christmas Lights Switch-On

The switch-on of the Christmas Lights in Chichester has had a good effect on footfall for both 2013 and 2014.

This year, combined with the effects of Free Park & Ride and Late Night Shopping, footfall has been up approximately 12% on unadjusted figures.

Hourly footfall is also affected by this, and subsequent late-night Thursdays, with nearly a quarter of footfall recorded after 4pm on 27 November 2014.

Car parks have also benefited, with all long-stay car parks seeing a rise in occupancy of between 5% and 14%.

Web activity was also up, with a 149% increase on visits.

Independents’ Week

Another peculiar US import (of sorts) – Independents’ Day was originally intended to encourage a celebration of independent retailers in UK High Streets. Adopted by many towns nationally, this event was also held in Chichester on 4th July 2013 (which fell on a Thursday). By footfall alone, it did not appear to make a significant impression.

In 2014 this became Independents’ Week, a pattern mirrored by other local BIDs and Town Centres.

Figures indicate that this week brought a small rise (4-7%) in footfall, with a particular increase on Tuesday 1 July (19% up).

This event also began during Goodwood’s Festival of Speed, which can have a significant effect on city centre footfall. The Food Fayre on Friday 4th July has likely also contributed to these figures.

Small Business Saturday

Having started in 2013, this campaign aims to encourage consumers to ‘shop local’ in their communities. The day falls on the first shopping Saturday in December.

The events appears to have made no visible impact on footfall in the city, with levels largely as expected for this date.

It’s worth referring back to the effects Black Friday here, as the two events occur in quick succession. Indeed, in the US, Small Business Saturday falls directly after Black Friday. Here at least, we have a week’s break, but the date falls in a particularly turbulent period and any effect is likely to be lost in the wake of such disruptive shopping events.

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Farmers’ Market

Chichester holds a farmers’ market on the 1st and 3rd Friday of each month on East Street and North Street.

Much as with 2013, this event continues to appear positive for the city’s footfall, with event increases regularly between 8 and 20%.

Chichester’s Got Style

Held on Saturday 26th April, local fashion houses and retailers presented a charity fashion show on North Street.

Footfall appeared to be up in the street, with a 9% increase on expected figures.

Web traffic to chichesterbid.co.uk also soared immediately prior to this event, with a 131% increase in web visitors on the day itself and a similar increase in the preceding week.

Chichester Garden Show

This event has been held in Chichester for a number of years, across North Street and East Street.

East Street footfall figures appear to show a decline in footfall over these dates, with a fall of some 20% on expected numbers.

Festival of Flowers

Held in Chichester Cathedral, this bi-annual event has rarely shown any effect on footfall in East Street and 2014 remains unchanged.

Chichester Taste Food Festival

This event coincided with a slight rise on Saturday 14 June, with footfall up approx. 7% on expected values. The figures fell again on Sunday 15 June, with a slight drop on expectations.

We understand the 2015 event (scheduled for 13 & 14 June 2015) has been put on hold at time of print.

Ride2Chi

This annual charity event, started in 2013, saw motorbikes and road safety events along North and East Street.

For the whole of the day, Sunday 27 July, footfall was up some 30% on expected figures (an increase of approx. 5,700).

This is a similar figure to that seen in 2013, where footfall also heavily benefited from the event.

Car parks also saw a rise, with increases in usage at Avenue de Chartres, Cattle Market and Northgate.

Visits to the web site also surged on this day, with over three times the expected traffic.

Sloe Fair

The Sloe Fair is a travelling funfair which runs annually in Northgate car park. During the fair, which runs on the 20th October each year, the car park is closed.

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Having started in the 12th Century, the Sloe Fair predates the footfall camera by a number of years, but we see that at least since 2007 the Fair has usually coincided with a small decline in footfall on East Street.

For 2014, there was a 14% drop in footfall on the day of the Sloe Fair (Monday) compared to expected values.

We also saw a rise in car parking at Avenue de Chartres (11%) and Cattle Market (26%), presumably displacements from the closed Northgate car park.

Goodwood

These famous grounds to the north of Chichester hold world-renowned horse and motor events throughout the year, with three principal events having a significant impact on the city and its residents.

Glorious Goodwood

The annual horse racing event, officially known as the ‘Qatar Goodwood Festival’ runs towards the end of July each year. Footfall is nearly always down in East Street, except for Fridays where a slight improvement is usually evident.

In 2014, the pattern continued. Daily figures are indicated to be down between 12 and 34%, with Friday up 27%, but the numbers ought to be taken as rough measures: this is also the start of the summer holidays which tends to bring up footfall in the latter part of July.

Car parking is similarly affected. Most days saw a small drop in car park usage, with Friday 1st August again seeing small rises across the city.

Festival of Speed

Footfall tends to drop slightly during Festival of Speed across Friday-Sunday. Again, 2014 is no real exception here. The Moving Motor Show held on Thursdays brought some extra footfall into Chichester when it was first introduced, but this effect appears to have diminished.

Goodwood Revival

The Revival is held annually on a Friday to Sunday in mid-September, this year falling between the 12th and the 14th of the month.

As with other major Goodwood events, we see a decline in footfall; between 3% and 16% drop.

Indications continue to suggest that, whilst Goodwood event days cause a drop in footfall, the surrounding ‘shoulder’ dates before and after the event tend to bring a slight lift.

This is evident in the Monday to Thursday immediately before the Revival, with 2014 figures slightly up (4-8%) on those expected.

Finally, residents might be unsurprised to learn that the A27 eastbound from Portsmouth to Chichester was particularly busy on the 12th September between 08:00 and 10:00, with nearly 4,000 vehicles travelling at an average speed of 25mph.

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WeatherAs a popular holiday region, Chichester and the surrounding area undoubtedly benefits from good, stable weather.

Using methods developed by Belgian meteorologists, we are able to grade each day based on the weather conditions of that day and its effect on city centre footfall. A one indicates stormy, unpleasant weather; a ten signifies a clear and dry day.

Temperature is notably absent from the grading. The actual temperature appears to have little effect on footfall – it is the associated conditions (wind, rain, etc.) that determine whether visitors are likely to venture to Chichester or not.

Generally (and unsurprisingly), footfall increases as the conditions improve. Even relatively poor conditions have modest footfall counts.

The very worst days (usually grade one, indicating relatively dire conditions) are a different matter and their effects may last for several days.

After a dry spring, Chichester was deluged by intense rain towards the end of May and into June. Local news reported flooding in the city and on the A27, and footfall dipped throughout the period.

A brief break in weather led to increased footfall – one of the busiest days of the year – presumably as shoppers took the brief respite as an opportunity to venture into the city.

Detailed weather data continues to be a weak spot for the area, with sources proving unreliable and distant (the closest detailed published record currently available is at Shoreham Airport).

TransportChichester’s railway station has enjoyed year-on-year growth for every year since modern ticket records began (1998). This is consistent with the rise in rail popularity nationally and regionally.

Figures are based on ticket sales to/from Chichester station, and for the last six years have broken sales down by Full, Discounted and Season tickets. The periods cover 1 April to 31 March of the following year.

Full (at-counter; undiscounted) tickets have remained fairly static in the last six year. These are ordinarily short-notice or local travel tickets for which discounts are unavailable.

Reduced tickets are sold with discount (railcard; child, etc.) or have been purchased in advance. We see in the figures a steady growth of reduced tickets, before levelling off from 2011.

Season tickets are commonly used by commuters. After a dip in 2011-12 we are seeing a recovery as season tickets sales improve.

Hence, the continued growth in ticket sales appears to be driven principally by a resurgence in season tickets.

Ticket breakdowns are open to interpretation, but the continued growth in tickets to/from Chichester is certain and – while that increase is slowing – it seems likely at this stage that the 2014-15 figures will continue to show modest growth in passenger numbers coming through this station.

Major Roads

The Highways Agency provides traffic data for various sections of the A27.

Road incidents on the A27 appear to have very little effect on the daily footfall counts, with temporary road closures simply delaying visits.

The A27 is noticeably and consistently busier during the summer months, particularly July and August, where traffic volumes may be 22% higher than winter counts.

Between April and October we see clear evidence of an increase in ‘inbound’ traffic on Fridays and ‘outbound’ traffic on Sundays - approximately 2,000-3,000 every weekend. This could give some hint of the volume of ‘weekenders’ in the local area, as part of efforts to recognise regional trade potential.

The A27 west of Chichester (towards Portsmouth) is slightly busier than to the east - by about 6%.

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Performance Indicators

Performance in Chichester has historically been measured with footfall, and this continues to be the primary source of data for the local area.

Footfall is usually counted with special cameras which measure the number of people walking past their focal area. Chichester has one such camera, located above Oasis on East Street. This is provided by Springboard who maintain the camera and collect daily figures from it.

Chichester has also engaged Springboard to collect anonymous retail figures from May 2014.

Other figures from local authorities and other sources can also be used to measure the BID’s performance, and we have collected & analysed these where possible. These include crime, transport and traffic data.

Performance is somewhat subjective. Many participants in the BID will have their own priorities: reducing crime, increasing footfall and improving transaction value and – where possible – consideration has been given for these other matters in the evaluation.

About Noggin

Noggin evaluates the performance of town centres and BIDs; how events, campaigns and changes are shaping the local area.

Noggin provides performance reports, expert advice and community portals for its customers, providing a rich set of resources for decision-making and management.

Sources

Crime data provided by the Home Office. Traffic data provided by the Highways Agency and West Sussex County Council. Footfall data provided by BRC/Springboard. Retail data provided by retailers and Springboard. Train station information provided by Office of Rail Regulation. Car parking data provided by Chichester District Council and West Sussex Council Council. Weather data aggregated from forecast.io, the MET Office, Shoreham Airport archives and openweathermap.org. Data published under Open Government Licence unless otherwise specified.

We are grateful to Chichester District Council, Springboard, Recenseo, ChiBAC, Medhursts and other participants for their assistance and provision of supplementary information.

Methodology

Using a combination of data and past research we have created a detailed computer model of Chichester. This allows us to simulate, analyse and forecast various aspects of the city.

Modelling the city provides us with a way to measure how various factors affect the city’s performance, and better understand what the BID team and its members can do to improve the city’s general outcome.

Measurements such as footfall can vary significantly day-by-day with seemingly no obvious explanation. We use multiple factors to determine cause & effect for these figures. Our comparisons are based on simulations rather than like-for-like, which may lead to conclusions which differ from others’.

Percentages are provided rounded to nearest whole number, unless otherwise noted.

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