Chicago Study Update:Freshman Year Performance

Evaluation and AccountabilitySeptember 2008

Consortium on Chicago School Research (CCSR)

The CCSR studied freshman course performance and high school completion in Chicago Public Schools

E&A has been conducting similar studies in Dallas ISD since 2007

Dallas is also a participant in two CCSR pilot institutes

What we know Student performance in the

freshman year of high school is critical for graduation

Three significant factors are attendance, GPA, and course failure

Course failure in the first six weeks of 9th grade is an early indicator of high school success or failure

End-of-Course tests required for freshman class of 2011-2012

English I English II English III World Geography U.S. History World History

Algebra I Geometry Algebra II Biology Chemistry Physics

Improved grades must reflect increased learning

We are not suggesting that students be given passing grades if they fail to meet coursework standards, or that course requirements be “dumbed down.”

The need for students to pass EOC assessments in order to graduate means that they must learn the course content.

What we need to know How early can we identify students

who are off-track for graduation? Are there reliable middle school and

elementary predictors of eventual graduation or dropout?

If off-track students can be identified earlier than high school, what interventions are effective?

3 Important Middle School Warning Signs

10 or more yearly absences Math course failure Language Arts course failure

Low 8th grade achievement levels increase the “riskiness” of all high school risk factors

Middle school absences are a strong predictor of high school graduation

61

46

36

27

17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Percent Graduating in 4 Years

0-4 days5-9 days10-14 days15-19 days20+ days

Middle school course grades are also strong predictors of graduation

18

56

24

56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Percent Graduating in 4 Years

Failed MathPassed Math Failed Lang. Arts Passed Lang. Arts

More middle school risk factors mean lower chances of graduating

60

34

18

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Percent Graduating in 4 Years

0123

Middle grades absences In 2007-08, about

30% of all middle grades students had 10 or more absences

More than 1/3 of 8th grade students had high absences

23

32

36

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Percent HighAbsences

Grade 6Grade 7Grade 8

Absence rates vary between schools, even those with similar populations

4

6

14

7

2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0-19% 20-29% 30-39% 40-49% 50-59%

Middle School A – Median absencesby elementary feeder school

3

67

4

7 7

4 4

8

6 67

0

5

10

Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8

Feeder A Feeder BFeeder CFeeder D

Middle School B - Median absencesby elementary feeder school

23 3

2

4

6

4 4 445

445

4

0

5

10

Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8

Feeder A Feeder BFeeder CFeeder DFeeder E

Middle School C – Median absencesby elementary feeder school

3

6

7

5

4

8

5

87

6

9

8

0

5

10

Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8

Feeder AFeeder BFeeder CFeeder D

Middle grades course failures

In 2007-08, 19% of students in grades 6-8 failed language arts and 23% failed math

Math failures were much higher at 8th grade

19

22

27

16

20 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Math Lang.Arts

Grade 6Grade 7Grade 8

Course failure rates vary between schools, but math failures are higher

7

3

15

87

9

3

12

1 1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0-9% 10-19% 20-29% 30-39% 40% +

Lang. ArtsMath

Some schools have clear inconsistencies in failure rates

40

15

23

11

34

6

05

1015

20253035

404550

Math Language Arts

Grade 6Grade 7Grade 8

Others have patterns that raise concerns

12

19

30

11

25

34

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Math Language Arts

Grade 6Grade 7Grade 8

Others appear more consistent, at least within content areas

22

26

20

108

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Math Language Arts

Grade 6Grade 7Grade 8

But on a closer look…

38

10

19

54

27

12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Math 7 Failure Rate (includes nosheltered, pre-AP, ESL, or Special

Education students)

Teacher ATeacher BTeacher CTeacher DTeacher ETeacher F

Next Steps Track risk factors back to

elementary grades Focus on similarities and differences

in risk within feeder patterns Understand which are teacher

effects, school effects, neighborhood effects, and effects of adolescence

Conclusions (preliminary) Neighborhood, family, poverty, and the

onset of adolescence are all factors in middle grades students falling off-track

Middle schools can help through early intervention and support for off-track students

Schools must be sure they are not contributing to the problem through ineffective instruction or punitive grading practices

Remember: improved grades must reflect increased learning

We are not suggesting that students be given passing grades if they fail to meet coursework standards, or that course requirements be “dumbed down.”

The need for students to pass EOC assessments in order to graduate means that they must learn the course content.

The bottom line: Like the Chicago Consortium researchers,

we are “advocating that teachers and schools identify students who are failing, find out why they are failing, and then try to give them the support they need to recover from this failure and avoid future failures.”

The earlier this can be accomplished, the better the outcome, for our students and our schools.