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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. CWIEME Chicago 2016 Electric Motor Market Update Presented by: Preston Reine, Senior Analyst & Manager IHS Markit Industrial Automation 1

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Page 1: CWIEME Chicago 2016 Electric Motor Market Update · CWIEME Chicago 2016 Electric Motor Market Update ... % of 2015 global industrial ... WINDSHIELD WIPER

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

CWIEME Chicago 2016Electric Motor Market Update

Presented by:

Preston Reine, Senior Analyst & Manager

IHS Markit Industrial Automation

1

Page 2: CWIEME Chicago 2016 Electric Motor Market Update · CWIEME Chicago 2016 Electric Motor Market Update ... % of 2015 global industrial ... WINDSHIELD WIPER

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Agenda

• Economic update

• Motor market statistics

• Key trends and challenges for suppliers

• Conclusion

2

Page 3: CWIEME Chicago 2016 Electric Motor Market Update · CWIEME Chicago 2016 Electric Motor Market Update ... % of 2015 global industrial ... WINDSHIELD WIPER

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Industrial Automation research areas

CAPTIAL EQUIPMENT & MACHINERY

3D PrintingGeneratorsMachineryMotor Driven EquipmentSwitchgearTurbines

DrivesMechanical Power TransmissionMotors

ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMSDISCRETE & PROCESS

AUTOMATION

ControllersIndustrial CommunicationsProcess InstrumentationVisualizationSmart Manufacturing

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© 2016 IHS 4

Global economic outlook

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.5

The key top-level numbers for 2015…..

Total industrial capital expenditure spend

-5.3%

Growth

$199.3 billion spend on automation products

Machinery production (MP)

Automation products significant part of MP

Automation direct to end-users

Building, land, services and

other

3%of spend

63%of spend

34%of spend

$3.2Trillion

A huge amount of money goes into industrial capital expenditure projects each year.

Here we show how that spend is allocated, and how much of it is directed towards Automation products.

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© 2016 IHS

Industrial capital expenditures by major region

6

Industrial Automation Capital Expenditure – Q3 2016/ Aug 2016

Americas EMEA Asia Pacific

20

15

$738 billion $635 billion

20

20

$879 billion $793 billion $2,134 billion

$1,941 billion

22.3%58.6%

% of 2015 global industrial capital expenditure

19.2%

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© 2016 IHS

Relative size of automation expenditures by industry within each region

7

Industrial Automation Capital Expenditure – Q3 2016/ Aug 2016

Region

Americas Asia Pacific EMEA

Automotive

Cement and glass

Chemicals

Food and beverage

Metal processing

Oil and gas

Pharmaceuticals

Power

Pulp and paper

Refining and petrochemicals

Water and wastewater

Ind

us

try

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© 2016 IHS

Machinery production by country - 2015

8

World machinery

market $1.3tn

$257bn $113bn $458bn $123bn $440.7bn

Rest of the world

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© 2016 IHS 9

Key industry sector weight and performance in 2016

3.7%

4.9%

3.6%

6.0%

3.4%

4.4%

6.2%

6.8%

8.4%

7.6%

45%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Percentage of 2015 Industrial automation equipment 2015 growth 2016 - growth - Q2 update

Industrial automation equipment market by industry

© 2016 IHS

Pro

po

rtio

no

f to

tal in

du

str

ial

au

tom

ati

on

eq

uip

men

t m

ark

et

(%)

Secto

r gro

wth

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© 2016 IHS 10

Breakdown of automation capital expenditures by industry and region - 2015

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

Au

tom

otiv

e

Cem

ent and g

lass

Chem

icals

Fo

od a

nd b

eve

rage

Me

tal p

roce

ssin

g

Oil

and g

as

Ph

arm

ace

utic

als

Po

wer

Pu

lp a

nd p

aper

Refin

ing a

nd p

etr

och

em

icals

Wate

r an

d w

ast

ew

ate

r

EMEA Asia AmericasSource: IHS © 2016 IHS

Automation capital expenditures by industry

In m

illio

ns

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© 2016 IHS 11

Industrial automation equipment market leaders

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© 2016 IHS 12

Short term factors affecting the world economy

Systematic factors

• Withdrawal of policy stimulus

• Over capacity after investment booms

• Sluggish export markets

• Increased risk aversion

Structural factors

• Growing labor force and wages

• Continuance of globalization

• Falling commodity prices

• Lack of market reforms

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Impact of Brexit not a long-term concern

13

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Americas Sep '16 EMEA Sep '16 APAC Sep '16

Americas June '16 EMEA June '16 APAC June '16

GDP Forecast Post Brexit

Source: IHS © 2016 IHS

Perc

en

t G

row

th(%

)

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Machinery production lag in China a slight concern

14

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Real GDP Industrial production Machinery production

China economic figures

Source: IHS © 2016 IHS

Perc

en

t G

row

th(%

)

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-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USGermanyChinaJapan

Percentage growth rates of machinery production in US $

Machinery production growth profiles

15-50%

-25%

0%

25%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Europe (€)Europe ($)

Percentage growth rates of European machinery production. Comparison of $ against €

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

AmericasEuropeAsia Pacific

Percentage growth rates of machinery production in US $

Total Machinery Production Percentage Growth Rates

% Growth of machinery production measured in US $

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

CAGR

13 - 20

US 9.4% 0.5% -1.8% 1.4% -0.7% 1.6% 3.7% 3.4% 1.6%

Germany -4.7% 4.1% 1.6% -19.2% -0.9% 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% -1.7%

China 5.7% 7.5% 6.4% 0.2% -0.3% 1.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.0%

Japan 1.4% -13.1% 1.2% -5.5% -1.1% 1.4% 2.1% 2.8% 1.4%

Source: IHS; Industry Publications © IHS 2016

Total Machinery Production Percentage Growth Rates

% Growth of machinery production measured in US $

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

CAGR

13 - 20

Americas 1.4% -2.4% -0.7% 0.4% 1.6% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 1.2%

Europe 1.4% 1.8% -18.2% 0.9% 2.6% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% -0.9%Asia

Pacific 11.0% -5.1% 5.3% 0.5% -1.9% 1.9% 3.0% 6.4% 1.4%

Source: IHS; Industry Publications © IHS 2016

Total Machinery Production Percentage Growth Rates

% Growth of machinery production measured $ and €

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

CAGR

13 - 20

Europe (€) -1.8% 1.9% -2.2% 0.9% 2.6% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 1.4%

Europe ($) 1.4% 1.8% -18.2% 0.9% 2.6% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% -0.9%

Source: IHS; Industry Publications © IHS 2016

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© 2016 IHS 16

Industrial motor market insights

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Overview of industrial motor market (Low-voltage AC & DC, integral horsepower)

$10.7B

Siemens

WEG

ABB

Asia0.2%

EMEA-1.0%

Americas-0.1%

Top-3 Leading Suppliers Americas

27%

EMEA30%

Asia43%

17

2016 forecast revenue

World revenue by region (%)

Revenue CAGR (2015-2020)

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

WORLD (major players)• ABB (inc. Baldor)

• Siemens

• WEG

• Regal Beloit

• TECO E&M/TECO-Westinghouse

• Leroy Somer

• Toshiba

• Shandong Huali

• Hyundai Heavy Industries/Ideal

• Hyosung Corporation

• NIDEC (US Motors)

Next-tier Competitors

• Toshiba

• Shandong Huali

• Hyundai Heavy Industries/Ideal

• Hyosung Corporation

• NIDEC (US Emerson)

• LEZ Ruselprom

• Gamak

• GE Industrial

• Tech Full Simo

• Cantoni Motor

• Fuji Electric

• Hengshui (OX)

• Crompton Greaves

• Tatung Corporation

• ATB Group (Wolong)

• VEM Group

• Luan JiangHuai

• Anhui Wannan

Low Voltage Motor Suppliers in the World

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Global MEPS Timeline

Source: IHS; IE4 Low-Voltage Motors - 2015 © 2015 IHS

1997 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011

IE2: US & Canada

IE1: China

IE2: Australia

IE2: Mexico

IE2: S. Korea, Φ1

IE2: Brazil

IE2: S. Korea, Φ2

IE3/NEMA Premium : US

IE2: European Union, Φ1

2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2020

IE2: Turkey

IE3/NEMA Premium : Canada

IE2/GB3: China

European Union, Φ27.5kW - 375kWIE2+VFD or IE3

*Lot #30 Proposal*European Union0.75kW - 375kW

Exclusively IE3

European Union, Φ30.75kW - 7.5kWIE2+VFD or IE3

World - Legislative Timeline: 1997-2020

Japan 'Top Runner' IE3 or better

IE3/GB2: China

US: earliest for IE2 US: Earliest for IE3/NEMA

Europe

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Rapid efficiency class transitions across all regions

20

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

IE1 - Standard Efficiency IE2 - High Efficiency IE3 - Premium EfficiencySource: IHS © 2015 IHS

Un

its (

k)

Brazil starts IE2

EU starts IE2 shift

China starts IE2

shift

US starts IE3/NEMA

Premium shift

Canada starts IE3/NEMA

Premium shift

EU (Phase 2) and Japan

start IE3 shift

EU (Phase 3) and China

start IE3 shift

2016 and beyond are estimated

The world market for low-voltage motors - unit shipments from 2010 to 2020

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.21

Slow unit growth doesn’t alter efficiency transition

EFFICIENCY CLASS TRANSITIONS (UNITS)

Average Annual Unit Growth ≈ 0.5%

Global Low Voltage Motors - Efficiency Class Transition: 2015 to 2020

2020 Market Size (Units)

41.7 Million

2015 Market Size (Units)

40.1 Million

IE140%

IE234%

IE317%

IE4<1%

DC<1%

Others8%

IE127%

IE241%

IE323%

IE42%

DC<1%

Others7%

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Major motor applications

22

-20.0%

-18.0%

-16.0%

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2015 Revenues Growth 2016 Growth 2017Source: IHS © 2016 IHS

Reven

ues (

$M

)

Gro

wth

(%

)

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Market Breakdown and Growth

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

2019

2014

WINDSHIELD WIPER MOTOR POWER WINDOWS

POWER DOOR/TAILGATE MOTOR

ADAPTIVE HEADLIGHTSMOTORS

ENGINE COOLING SYSTEM

POWER ROOF MOTOR

E-SUSPENSION MOTORS

POWER SEATING MOTORS

POWER STEERING MOTORS

AIRFLOW SYSTEM

DOOR MIRRORS MOTORS

BRAKING MOTORS

ELECTRIC THROTTLE MOTOR

# Motors: 1.8ASP: $6

# Motors: 1.9ASP: $5.6

# Motors: 5.8ASP: $9.6

# Motors: 6.1ASP: $8.9

# Motors: 1ASP: $9.8

# Motors: 1ASP: $13.4

# Motors: 2.4ASP: $11.2

# Motors: 2.6ASP: $11.1

# Motors: 2.7ASP: $4.1

# Motors: 2.9ASP: $3.7

# Motors: 1.8ASP: $8.9

# Motors: 1.8ASP: $8.8

# Motors: 4ASP: $8.80

# Motors: 4ASP: $8.50

# Motors:13.9ASP: $7.9

# Motors:14.8ASP: $7.2

# Motors: 3.2ASP: $3.4

# Motors: 3.3ASP: $3.0

# Motors: 1ASP: $38.4

# Motors: 1ASP: $30.1

# Motors: 3ASP: $12.9

# Motors: 3ASP: $12.5

# Motors: 1ASP: $7.6

# Motors: 1ASP: $7.4

# Motors: 4.0ASP: $7.1

# Motors: 4.0ASP: $6.4

COST MANAGEMENT IN THE CARM O T O R – E L E C T R I C

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Technology change in manufacturing and machinery

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Internet of Things Evolution

Internet of Everything (IoE): represents the open access to data from one ormore monitoring and control systems by third-party applications to provide unique,additional value to stakeholders.

25

Connect

Devices

Collect Data

Access Data

Complex

Analytics

Unique Value

• Connectivity• Intelligence

• Sensors• Storage

• Cloud• Standards• Open APIs

• “Big Data” • Realize the true potential of a connected society….

Where we are today.

Next stage – security is key challenge!

Ideal goal – many years away…

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Sensors used for condition monitoring

26

ConditionMonitoring

Vibration sensors

Oil analysisThermography

Other machine quality parameters: temperature, pressure, speed etc

„Of all the parameters that can be measured non-intrusively in industry today, the one containing the most information is the vibration signature“, Art Crawford

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Changes in technology smart manufacturing / Industry 4.0

27

Mass Customization

Predictive Maintenance

Digitization

Demand Driven Manufacturing

Remote Diagnostics

Energy Efficiency

Mobility

Industry 4.0

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

What do machine users want?

28

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Improveproduct quality

Improveflexibility (e.g.for faster new

productintroduction, orpreparing forsmaller batch

sizes)

Improvingenergy

efficiency

Improvingsafety

Improvingcollaboration

betweendifferent teams

Efficientlymanaginginventory

Compliancewith

environmentalregulation

Improvingcybersecurity

Other than increasing production, what do you think is the main factor driving automation investment within your company?

Source: IHS

Co

un

t

Sample size = 915 Sample frame = all respondents

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Steps from reactive to predictive maintenance

29

Prescriptive maintenance

•Impending failures are predicted based on data analytics, system operation can be adjusted to allow for prolonged product lifetime and alignment with convenient repair schedules

Predictive maintenance

•Impending failures are predicted based on data analytics, allowing for pro-active response minimizing downtime and improving efficiency of maintenance teams

Condition monitoring

•Definition of suitable measures depending on the current condition of the system – based on diagnostic data and remote monitoring

Preventative maintenance

•Repair and maintenance work is scheduled based on pre-defined intervals

Reactive maintenance

•Response to failure or impaired performance of product

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Conclusion

Key Takeaways:

• Worldwide commitment for systems efficiency is best hope for growth in the motor market amid such difficult economic times

• Motor suppliers enduring hard times; but strong opportunities exist

Notable actions:

• With a shift towards efficiency and smart manufacturing, all industrial players need to be thinking about how to simplify things for their customers by providing a full holistic solution

• This means that motor suppliers are looking to offer more than just a motor, but services and extra components, as well, in order to fit in with the rapidly evolving “Industry 4.0”

30

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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Thank you! Any questions?

Preston Reine

Senior Analyst and Group Manager,

Manufacturing Technology

+1 512 582 2059

[email protected]

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