MACOORA 2009 Annual Conference Coastal Inundation/Climate Change Issues Breakout Conversation

User: What do I need now that I’m not getting? Provider: What can MACOORA do?

Chesapeake Bay Observing System (CBOS) Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System (CIPS)

Barry Stamey Director, Strategic Collaboration, Noblis

Peak Inundation – Hurricane IsabelHampton/Poquoson, VA

Langley AFB

Fire Stations

Hampton

Poquoson

“Coastal Inundation Prediction System of Systems” (CIPSS)

Real-timeObservations

StaticDatabases

Real-timeModeling

EnsembleForecasting

Visualization & Products

Validation &Assimilation

ProductDelivery

User Engagement & Valuation

Data Management & Communications

Sys Eng – Requirements, Conops, Gap Analysis, Prototypes, Acquisition, Deploy, Sustain

Standards & Common Architecture

User Identification and Needs

Atmospheric

Water Level

Stream Flow

Bathy

Topo

Atmospheric

Hydrologic

Hydrodynamic

Precipitation

Waves

Precipitation

Waves

GIS Layers

Model Graphs

Model Vis

Uncertainty

Future?

Tides

Future?

History Rules

Other Inputs

Future?

Fcst Text

Future Research & Development

Fcst Graphs

Static Vis

Animated Vis

Winds

Atm Sensor

WL Gages

Inundation

Future?

Phone calls

Cmd Center

Future?

On Scene

Internet

Spatial and Temporal Scales and Applications across Spectrum of Societal Needs & Users

Public

Innovation >>> Rapid Prototyping Draft 2005-2008 Stamey

Future?

Future?

Filling the Gaps: Identifying opportunities and solutions• What is the user base

– To the WFO to the public– How to EMs– How to civil community

• How to express confidence/uncertainty– Credibility storm to storm– What is the probability of something happening

• Which one – whose information – do planners believe– The lay person needs to have confidence – assess validity

• How does it impact me – localize the impact– Observations are not dense enough to provide confidence and validate models– Need cheap sensors and affordable O&M

• Disclose more information about model so that users know what they are getting – Not just a simple validation

• Standards for modeling and decision making – better to move or save?

Filling the Gaps: Identifying opportunities and solutions• Roles and responsibilities – not just government

– Capabilities from all sectors– MACOORA is good opportunity to explore conops– And people still have to have confidence in the forecasts – social aspects– Heeding warnings comes with time – see it on the evening news

• Ensemble approach• Synergy between federal and commercial providers

– Pretty pictures versus state of the science• Robust standardized statistical approach

– USACE, NOAA– Model skill evaluation

• What are we actually going to provide– Who owns it and operates it– What level of detail

• Framework, conops• Communication – visualization and engagement of users

Filling the Gaps: Identifying opportunities and solutions• End to end –

– Data collection, metadata, data management– Atmospheric models for real time forcing– Real time forecast of total water including waves and runoff– Sea level rise and climate change– Mean water datum– Subsidence

• Verification and validation– LIDAR– Enough gages to validate– Variable changes in sea level

• Modeling and metadata– Temperature, flow, water quality – ecological, ecosystem