charts - monetary policy meeting - november 2021
TRANSCRIPT
CHARTSMONETARY POLICY MEETING
3 NOVEMBER 2021
Monetary Policy Report 3/21, overall picture
2Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Output gapPolicy rate
Inflation (CPI) Inflation (CPI-ATE)
-9
-6
-3
0
3
-9
-6
-3
0
3
2015 2018 2021 2024
-1
0
1
2
3
-1
0
1
2
3
2015 2018 2021 2024
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
2015 2018 2021 2024
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
2015 2018 2021 2024
Number of infected per day
3
Registered infected per 100 000 population. Seven-day moving average.
2 Mars 2020 – 2 November 2021
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21
US
Euro area
UK
Sweden
Norway
Hospitalisations
4
Number of Covid patients in hospital per 100 000 inhabitants.
22 January 2020 - 31 October 20211)
1) 28 October for the UK, 22 October for Norway and 24 October for France and Denmark.
Sources: ourworldindata.org and Norges Bank
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21
US UK
France Norway
Denmark
Vaccination coverage
5
Share of fully vaccinated. Percent.
15 December 2020 – 2 November 2021
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21
US Germany UK
Sweden France Italy
Denmark Spain Norway
GDP forecast for trading partners1)
61) Thirteen trading partners. Export weights.
Sources: Consensus Economics, IMF, and Norges Bank
Index. 2019 = 100. 2019 – 2024
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
MPR 3/21
Consensus forecast October
Consensus forecast September
IMF October
PMI for trading partners
7
Diffusion index. January 2018 – September 2021
PMI servicesPMI manufacturing
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2018 2019 2020 2021
US
Euro area
UK
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2018 2019 2020 2021
US
Euro area
UK
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
PMI manufacturing
8
PMI manufacturing delivery times. Under 50 = longer delivery times.
January 2005 – October 2021
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
US
Euro area
UK
Sweden
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
Consumer pricesTwelve-month change. Percent. January 2018 – September 2021
Headline CPICore CPI
Source: Refinitiv Datastream 9
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2018 2019 2020 2021
US Euro area
UK Sweden
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2018 2019 2020 2021
US Euro area
UK Sweden
Oil and gas spot and futures prices
10
Oil. USD per barrel. Natural gas. USD per MMBtu
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Gas (l.h.s.)
Oil (r.h.s.)
Futures prices 2 November 2021
Futures prices MPR 3/21
Money market rates for trading partners
11
Three-month money market rates for Norway’s trading partners.
Percent. 2015 Q1 – 2024 Q4
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
-0,5
0
0,5
1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Forward rates MPR 3/21
Forward rates 2 November 2021
Policy rates in selected countries
12
Policy rates and estimated forward rates1). Percent. January 2015 –
December 2024. 2 November 2021 (solid line) and MPR 3/21 (dashed line)
1) Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.
2) ECB deposit facility rate.
Sources: Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
-1
0
1
2
3
-1
0
1
2
3
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
US
UK
Euro area²⁾
Sweden
Long-term sovereign yields
13
Ten-year government bonds. Percent. 1. Jan 2020 – 2. Nov 2021
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21
US UK
Germany Sweden
Norway
Source: Bloomberg
MPR 3/21
Global equity markets
14
Index. 1 January 2020 = 100. 1 January 2020 – 2 November 2021
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21
US Europe
UK China
Emerging economies
MPR 3/21
Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
15
January 2019 – November 20211)
1) Projections for 2021 Q3 – 2021 Q4.
Source: Norges Bank
100
110
120
130
140
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21
I-44 Projections MPR 3/21
MPR 3/21
Stronger krone
Three-month money market premiumPercentage points. Five-day moving average.
1 January 2015 – 31 December 20241)
1) Projections for 2021 Q3 – 2024 Q4.
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Projections MPR 3/21MPR 3/21
16
Banks’ residential mortgage rates
17
Nominal, floating interest rate. January 2019 – November 20211)
1) Banks’ outstanding mortgage and deposit rates through August 2021. Policy rates and quoted rates up
until 2 November 2021.
Sources: Finansportalen, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21
Outstanding mortgages Deposits Quoted rates Policy rate
Credit growth
18
C2. Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – September 20211)
Non-financial enterprises
mainland NorwayHouseholds
1) Projections for September 2021 – December 2021.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2015 2017 2019 2021
MPR 3/21
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2015 2017 2019 2021
MPR 3/21
Mainland GDP
19
Monthly and three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.
March 2020 – August 20211)
1) Projections for September 2021 – December 2021.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21
Monthly growth
Projections 3/21
Rolling three-month growth
Expected output growth next quarter
20
Business cycle barometer for manufacturing and mining. Net values.
Seasonally adjusted. 2007 Q1 – 2021 Q3
Source: Statistics Norway
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Fiscal policy
21
2000-2022. Structural non-oil deficitShare of trend GDP for mainland Norway.
PercentIn billions of 2022 NOK
Source: Ministry of Finance
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
National Budget 2022
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
National Budget 2022
Goods consumption
22
Seasonally adjusted volume index. January 2015 – August 20211)
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1) Projections for September to December 2021.
Source: Statistics Norway
Consumer confidence (CCI)
23
Index. May 2007 –– October 2021
Source: ForbrukerMeteret from Opinion
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
CCI Average
House prices
24
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – October 20211)
1) Projections for September 2021 – December 2021.
Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no, Real Estate Norway and Norges Bank
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
House prices Projections MPR 3/21
House prices in selected Norwegian cities
25
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – October 2021
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
NorwayOsloTrondheimBergenStavanger and vicinityTromsøKristiansand
Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Real Estate Norway and Finn.no
Building permits issued for housing startsIn thousands of housing units. January 2000 – September 2021
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
2020
2019
Average (2000-2019)
26
Unemployment
27
Share of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.
January 2015 – October 20211)
1) Projections for September 2021 – December 2021.
Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Registered unemployment
Projections MPR 3/21
Registered fully unemployed
28
Unadjusted. In thousands. Week 18 - week 42 20211)
1) Projections week 38 to 52. The numbers are interpolated where weekly numbers are missing. In week 42 NAV did
not publish numbers for furloughs, due to technical changes in the data.
Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
May-21 Aug-21 Nov-21
Total
Furloughs
Ordinary
Projections MPR 3/21
CPI and indicators of underlying inflation
29
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – September 20211)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Indicators² CPI
CPI-ATE Median
Inflation target Projections MPR 3/21
1) Projections for September 2021 – December 2021.
2) The band shows the highest and lowest values for CPIM, CPIXE, 20% trimmed mean, weighted median, CPI-XV and CPI common.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI-ATE by supplier sector
30
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – September 20211)
1) Projections for September 2021 – December 2021.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Imported goods
Domestically produced goods andservicesProjections MPR 3/21
30
Electricity spot and futures prices
31
Øre/kWh. January 2010 – December 2024
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
0
40
80
120
160
200
0
40
80
120
160
200
2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
Norway
Germany
Futures prices 2 Nov 21
Futures prices MPR 3/21