chapter1 "world challenges place of the city", smart city summer course, aust, 2015

Smart City Solu-on and Implementa-on AUST Summer Course

Chapter 1 : World challenges & Place of the City

Professor Isam SHAHROUR

Isam.shahrour@univ-‐lille1.fr

Q1 : Major world challenges?

Q2 : Place of the City ?

2 Ques-ons

1.   World popula-on growth 2.   Protec-on of natural resources 3.   Pollu-on 4.   Urbanisa-on 5.   Socio-‐economic challenges 6.   Sustainability

Major world challenges

1. World Popula-on Growth

UN High

UN Medium

UN Low

10 Billions

16 Billions

6 Billions

World Popula-on Growth

Consequences of the popula-on growth

Increase in: •  Consump)on of natural resources (Energy,

water, raw materials…) •  Food demand •  Pollu)on (air, soil, water,..)

Increase demand for : •  New construc)ons (housing, services, industry,…) •  Infrastructures (roads, energy, water,

communica)on, waste collec)on and treatment,..)


•  Adap)ng exis)ng infrastructures to today requirements.

Increase demand for services: -‐  Educa)on, -‐  Health, -‐  Transporta)on -‐  Culture, Entertainment, -‐  Customized services (old people,..)


Resources : •  Water •  Energy •  Air •  Raw materials

2. Protec-on of natural resources

Availability to consumers •  Quan)ty •  Quality •  Transport / Logis)c •  Accessibility (poverty)


Major menaces •  World popula)on growth •  Limited resources •  Over exploita)on


•  Pollu)on •  Provision security

Energy challenges

OECD : Organiza-on for Economic Co-‐opera-on and Development

Energy supply Security

Other blackout : •  Italy (2003):

$ 55 billions •  Indonesia (2005)

$ 100 billions

US Blackout (2003) •  50 Million people •  24 hours for full recovery •  Cost: $6 to $10 billion

hWp://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2013/08/30/blackout-‐risk-‐tool-‐puts-‐price-‐tag-‐on-‐power-‐reliability/

“Our grids are old and our equipment is aging,” said Robin Luo, vice president and blackout model project manager at Har]ord Steam Boiler.

US, the yeraly cost of electrical outages = $ 150B

Water stress

hWp://www.conserva)onsolu)ons.com/water-‐resources.html

Water Chalenges

Water stress evolu-on

Source: Le Monde diploma)que

(% Water withdrawal of the total available water)

1 billion of the world popula-on do not have access to drinking water service (major health risk,..)

Water Chalenges

Water Chalenges 2.4 billion of the world popula-on do not have access to sewage water service (health and flood risks,..)

Water leakage : •  20% of the water supply •  in some ci-es about 40%

Pollu-on -‐  Air -‐ Water -‐  Soils

Food

3. Pollu-on Origin:

-‐  Buildings (Hea)ng/cooling, ligh)ng,..)

-‐  Transporta)on -‐  Industrial ac)vity -‐  Agriculture

Food

3. Pollu-on Menaces: •  Health •  Life quality •  Biodiversity

•  Climate change •  Global Warming

Air pollu-on Buildings, Transport, industry

Air pollu)on map Popula)on concentra)on map

Source: USGCRP (2009)

Greenhouse emission

Air pollu-on impact

Kills 2.1 millions / year Economic cost: Europe (2009) : € 170 billion

Soil and water pollu-on

Soil and water pollu-on Industrial ac-vity -‐ Brownfields

France : Brownfield repar--on

4. Urbanisa-on Urban planning

-‐  City Design (spa)al organiza)on) -‐  Infrastructures -‐  Public space -‐  Housing

Consequences : -‐  Life quality -‐  AWrac)veness -‐  Social stability

-‐  Economic ac)vity -‐  Social Ac)vity -‐  Slums

Food

4. Urbanisa-on

Challenges : •  Investment (new infrastructures) •  Adap)ng exi)ng infrastructures to today

requirement •  Innova)on in technology & management

Slums issue

The world’s slum popula)on is projected to increase from 780 million in 2000 to somewhere between 900 and 1, 500 million in 2020.

Slums issue Neza-‐Chalco-‐Itza, Mexico City, 4 Million one of the largest slums in the world.

Slums issue

hWp://homemakersindia.net/2015/05/17/slum-‐redevelopment-‐plans-‐to-‐change-‐mumbai-‐landscape/

Mumbai’s Slum More than one million

hWp://www.weforum.org/projects

United Na-on

hWps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_issues_in_Germany#The_Hood

Absolute poverty (World Bank): People living on less than $1.25 per day. Measured in interna)onal dollars, adjusted for: •  Price level in the country (PPP adjustment) •  Price changes over )me.

Poverty

Absolute poverty evolu-on

Poverty

% of the world popula-on by level of income

Globaliza-on, the free market

Unemployment

Labor costs : operator Hour

25$

1 $

Unemployment rate in Europe (2011)

Unemployment

Consequences on •  Economy •  Social cohesion •  prosperity •  Poli-cal stability

Popula-on ageing

•  Re-rement funding •  Health and social care •  Customized services

Age dependency ra-o (%) : people older than 64/ people between 15-‐64

Popula-on ageing

Lebanon : ?

Par-cipatory governance

Food

Socio-‐economic challenges

Need for innova-on in •  The economic model •  Services •  Customized services (old people,..) •  Governance model

Menaces : •  Deteriora)on of the life quality •  Social instability

•  Spa-al and -me scales •  Environmental, social and economic

interac-on

6. Sustainability issue

Spa-al scale

Household World

Interac-on

Life Quality

Time

Future genera-on

Time scale

1

2

3

Sustainability: Environmental, social and economic interac-on

Video :

A1 Urbaniza)on and the evolu)on of ci)es across 10,000 years -‐ Vance Kite A2 Mexico City's Urban Sprawl A3 Popula)on explosion causes poverty crisis A4 Water, The World Water Crisis A5 UN Water Video A6 Aver)ng the climate crisis -‐ Al Gore

Q& : Major world challenges?

Q2 : Place of the City ?

2 Ques-ons

•  High concentra)on of the world popula)on

•  Concentra)on of the economic ac)vity •  High energy consump)on •  High pollu)on emission •  High risk to disasters

Place of the City ?

Concentra-on of the world popula-on

•  55% of the World popula-on •  France ( > 80%) • Lebanon 85% • 2050 : 70 of the World popula-on

By 2030 : •  400,000 km2 will be constructed for urban

use (doubling the world’s built urban area) •  Nearly 2 billion new urban residents •  Urban popula)ons of South Asia and Africa

will double

Developing countries : center of urban transforma-on

Ci-es with more than 1 millions inhabitants

Concentration in large cities

The light Map

Concentration in large cities

United States

Asia

Popula-on density in the world

(Habitant/hectare)



Place of the City ?

The City : •  70% of the world GDP … •  600 metropolis generate 60% of the world GDP •  95% of the popula)on growth in the developing countries

Concentra-on of the economic ac-vity



Place of the City ?

The City : •  70% of the total energy consump)on •  75% of the electrical energy consump)on

Energy consump-on

Energy consump-on and urban popula-on density

Transport

Industry

Buildings

Tokyo (2005)

Mexico (2006)

London (1999)

Shanghai (2007)

Urban Transport Time lost at rush hour (minutes /hour)

Land Use and Urban Transport

•  Access to jobs depends on loca)on and transport services

•  Low income ci)zens can spend 15-‐25% of their income on transport (as much as housing)

•  In some ci)es, ci)zens spend up to 2 hours for the daily work transport



Place of the City ?

The City : 80% of the greenhouse emission

Pollu-on emission

Pollu-on emission

London

Ile de France: greenhouse emission



Place of the City ?

High risk to disasters

Flood Risk (380 millions)

Earthquake Risk (283 millions)

Storms Risk (157 millions)

VIDEOS

A7 Deadly Natural Disasters Caught on Video A8 Why are ci)es so important in assessing global energy? A9 Jonas Eliasson How to solve traffic jams ? A10 America's Fastest Shrinking Ci)es A11 Natural disasters and urban areas Professor David Sanderson,

Conclusion

•  Degraded environment (air, soil, water, ....) •  limited natural resources •  Increasing consump)on of resources •  Popula)on ageing •  Financial crisis

Conclusion •  Concentra)on in ci)es (metropolitan ....) •  Increase demand for infrastructure •  Increase demand for buildings

•  Increase demand for services

•  Unadapted Infrastructure and buildings to today requirement

•  Lack of funding (financial crisis)

Thank you

chapter1 "world challenges place of the city", smart city summer course, aust, 2015

Education

air water

billions usblackout2003

billions indonesia2005

water energy air rawmaterials

transportaon culture

waterstress hwp

austsummercourse chapter1

millionsyear economiccost