What is TRANZFOR

Joint funded:IRSES Madam Curie Action Framework 7; MoRST, DIISR, AAS Supported by INRA, Scion, ISA, CSIRO, UKFR

Forests and climate change

• WP 1 - Genomics and tree breeding strategies

• WP 2 - Forest Models

• WP 3 - Environmental services

• WP 4 - Risk assessment

• WP 5 - Bioenergy

Australian climate change adaptation for forestry: current activities and future needs

Michael Battaglia

1950 - 2008

Australia is dry and getting drier…with consequences for our forests

1970 - 2008

By 2050, the percent change in the number of days with Very High or Extreme fire weather are:

• Number of ‘Very High’ fire danger days: +20-100%

• Number of ‘Extreme’ fire danger days: +100-300%

Lucas et al., 2007

With drying comes fire risk

Regional forest carbon stocks and fire impacts: a shift?

fire‘mature’forest

regrowth

CarbonStock(Mt)

Time (years)

Long-term decrease in carbon stock(net emission of CO2)

After Polglase pers. comm

Forest fires and water supply

Wildfires in 1939 have decreased stream flows to Melbourne by about 300 GL per year (40%) due to increased forest water use in just 65,000 ha of regenerating forest.

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

0 50 100 150 200

Forest age (yrs)

Annualcatc

hm

ent

runoff

(mm

)

95% confidencelimits

Kuczera, 1987

2009

500 mm x 65,000 ha= 325 GL

After Polglase pers. comm

NOW

2070Pinkard and Kriticos pers. comm

Climate-driven tree mortality in Australian plantations

On the increase – in Australia and elsewhere See Allen et al (2010) For Ecol Manage 259: 660–684 for global reviewAustralian plantations ‘ moderately vulnerable’ – IPCC

Late summer E. globulus plantations in WA

From McDowell et al.(2008) New Phytologist 178: 719–739

After White pers. comm

Relative to 1980 growth% change

< -10-9 - 01 - 10> 10

Relative to 1980 growth% change

< -10-9 - 01 - 10> 10

No mortality Assuming mortality

www.fwpa.com.au/Resources/RD/Reports

BiodiversityDistribution of species with mean annual temperature ranges < 1°C(Hughes et al. 1996)

Frequency distribution of mean annual T range for eucalypt species

Australian biome distribution at Last Glacial Maximum, present, and 2100 (600ppm CO2 scenario) using BIOME 4.0.(Steffen et al. 2009 Australia’s biodiversity and climate change. Summary for policy makers 2009)

Carbon markets and land-use changeProfitability of reforestation of cleared landscapes for carbon sequestration, expressed as equalised annual equivalents (EAE), under a carbon price of $20/t of CO2-e and the baseline commodity price scenario. Carbon plantings are economically viable when EAE > 0. The tree systems modelled are: a) Eucalyptus globulus; b) Eucalyptus cladocalyx and Eucalyptus camaldulensis blend; c) Eucalyptus kochii, and ; d) mixed environmental plantings. Crossman et al. 2010

a) b)

c) d)

National response .. some examples

• COAG National climate change action plan• Climate change and forest action plan• Support research to address major knowledge gaps (FFICCRF,

NCCARF)

• Other national response• National Biodiversity Conservation Strategy 2010-20• National water initiative and complementary state legislation• Sustainable yields studies and MDBC irrigation changes• Black Saturday Royal Commission Recommendations

Framework for what we do (in production forestry research)

• Better, more useful vulnerability assessments– not climate-centric but decision-centric– but has to be based on understanding forest

functioning as well as human systems• Identify and build adaptive capacity• Explore adaptation options and their different

dimensions• Social science to better understand adaptation

decisions (barriers, synergies)• Work with industry and policy partners to develop

pathways to adoption

Modified from pers. Comm. Howden

Relative to 1980 growth

% change< -10-9 - 01 - 10> 10

Activities – again a sample (related to production and carbon forestry)

Reviews:•NNCARF forest vulnerability review•NAFI Adaptation to climate change in Australia’s plantation industry review

Vulnerability assessments:•FWPA climate change and plantations impacts•BRS climate change and plantations•Water security, climate and land-use change– Lu Zhang &WfHC

Functioning and climate change:•Hawkesbury + UWS Face: elevated CO2, temperature, nutrients,water•FFICCRF Forest mortality project•Genetic flows in fragmented landscapes•Wood properties•OzFlux, Forest/biosphere-atmosphere interactions

Capacity building and carbon markets and biofuels:•FFICCRF carbon markets project•FASA sub-tropical and tropical germplasm / ALRTIG & ATSC•Sustainable biofuels project / Gen2 sustainable oil mallees

Industry focus after NCCARF review Pinkard et al. 2010

Domain of government investment

TRANZFOR: where we have been

• WP 1 - Genomics and tree breeding strategies• Virtual gene project (Wu-Cullity)• Altitudinal variation in water use Nothofagus (Bresson)• Genetic and environmental stability of the relationship between Water

Use Efficiency (WUE) and discrimination against Carbon 13 (Δ13C) (Douthe-Warren)

• WP 2 - Forest Models• Pinus pinaster (Fontes-Almeida)• Silvopastoral models (Battaglia-Palma)• Fast growing plantations and water (White-Cassella)• WP 3 - Environmental services• WP 4 - Risk assessment• Wind modelling (Gardiner-Finnigan)• Post fire recovery / Fire Paradox(Gomes-Moirea-Catry• WP 5 - Bioenergy• Harmonising sustainability frameworks (O’Connell-Tubby)

S,IC

E

CC,IC,I

SC

C

TRANZFOR: future missions

• Forest Mortality• Full carbon cycle /soils• GxExM for carbon forestry• Integrate approaches policy / adoption - lessons• Native forest resilience

• Detection and monitoring of change

• Multi-criteria decision making/land use

• Landscape connectivity – biodiversity and gene flows

• Biosecurity/Weeds • Urban forestry / periurban forestry?• Forest functioning and elevated CO2/ regulation of

photosynthesis/models of physiology

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