Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 1

Chapter 3Developing Predictive Hypotheses

• Cognitive & Non Cog Abilities• Personality• Criteria

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 2

Conceptual & Operational DefinitionsPredictors & Criteria

• F. Kerlinger’s definitions– Concept or construct: What’s the difference?– Theory v. hypothesis: what’s the difference?

• Predictive Hypothesis: – Grounded in theory (explanation relationships)– Predictors & Criteria: defined at two levels:• conceptual & operational: What’s the difference?

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 3

• Predictors (KSAOs, other attributes)– (independent vars for experimental research)

• Give some examples with operational definitions

• Criteria (performance/results)– Outcomes (dependent vars for experimental research)

• Give some examples with operational definitions

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 4

Theory Building and Testing fig 3.1 p 53

• 1. Theory: – predictor construct (height) is related to – criterion construct (basketball ability)

• 2. Predictive hypothesis (testable):– predictor measure (height in inches) is related to – Criterion measure (number dunks in 2 minutes)

• 3. Predictor measure is valid measure of height• 4. Criterion measure is a valid measure of basketball ability• 5. Predictor measure is related to the Criterion construct

– (confirms prediction and supports theory)

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 5

Theory and Practice

• Specification of Population– For what populations does the theory hold?

• Why would this be important? • Give some examples,

– e.g. women in the military?– Geographical differences?

• Specification of time intervals– What’s the optimal timeframe for criterion

collection?• When and how long should the criterion?

– Give examples for jobs with different learning curves

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 6

• Specifying functional relationships– Linear• Give examples linear relationships

– Curvilinear • Give examples of curvilinear relationships

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 7

Criteria

• Criterion constructs– Inferring Constructs from Measures– A theory of Performance – Performance Components and Determinants– Contextual Behavior– Trainability

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 8

Predictors & Predictive Hypotheses

• Avoid “folklore theories”– Use standardized measures proven to work– E.g. Cognitive ability, which is usually superior to

non-cognitive measures. • Cognitive Factors (ability to think)

• perceive, process, evaluate, compare, create,• Understand, manipulate (ideas), reason

– 75 years of Factor Analytic studies

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 9

Cognitive

• 7 Primary Mental abilities (Thurstone, ‘38)– Verbal comprehension– Word fluency– Spatial ability– Perceptual speed– Numerical facility– Memory– Inductive reasoning

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 10

Cognitive Abilities

• General Mental Ability (GMA) intelligence– “Processes of • Acquiring,• Storing (memory)• Retrieving • Combining, (relationships)• Comparing, (relationships)• Using in context new concepts (abstraction)”

– (Humphreys, ‘79)

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 11

GMA

• Spearman’s (1927)“g”– Fluid intelligence (Gf)

• Basic reasoning

– Crystallized intelligence (Gc)• Acquired knowledge (e.g. vocabulary tests)

• Carroll (1993) using factor analytic studies– Three stratum model

• First order factors (several)• Second order factors (R. B. Cattell’s Gf, Gc)• Third order “g” (like Spearman’s)

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 12

Job Specific Ks & Ss

• O*Net – three occupational skills list– Basic– Cross functional– Occupation specific

• Think of some for the IO psychologist’s job

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 13

Personality Constructs

• Trait – habitual way of thinking or behaving in response to a variety of situations. – Value, goal, beh tendency to seek or avoid– Sometimes role specific– Called “work styles” “occupational values”

(O*Net)

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 14

Personality

• Five Factor Model (universal)– NEO (CANOE)

• Guion & Highhouse– Surgency (extravert, dominance, assertive)– Agreeableness (likeability, friendly)– Conscientiousness (responsible, dependable)– Emotional Stability – Open to experience (intellectance)

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 15

Personality

• Integrity and conscientiousness– Not engaging in counter-productive behavior• Stealing, • embezzlement• cheating customers• Others?

– Trustworthy– Work hard without surveillance

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 16

Personality

• Other traits (just a few)– Core Self-evaluation (Judge, Eraz, Bono)– Locus of Control (Rotter)• Smith, Trompenaars & Dugan (2007)

– PA/NA (positive/ negative affect) • Watson, Clark, Lee Tellegen (1988)

– GCOS• General Causality Scale Description (Deci & Ryan)

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 17

Personalitysome questions

• Are traits malleable?• Are they job specific?• How, if so should they be used in selection?• What needs to be done to improve their use?

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 18

Physical and Sensory CompetenciesWhat effect has ADA had?

• Physical Characteristics– At what cost are accommodations to the

workplace (for ADA?)• Find some examples?

– What role does human factors play?• Physical Abilities– Fleishman, Hogan (have studied them)– Are they important in sports?– Are they important in the military?

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 19

Non-Cognitive

• Emotional Intelligence (Goleman, ‘95)– Perceive, appraise, express emotions

• (Mayer & Salovey, ‘97)

– Lacks conceptual coherence– Not psychometrically sound– Redundant with other measures?• E.g. cognitive ability, personality traits?

– (Matthews, Roberts, & Zeidner, ‘04)

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 20

Experience, Education, Training

• Credentials are rarely useful – Unless based on a Job Analysis

• Some majors may be useful – If knowledge is comparable to professions• Can you think of some?

• Can competencies be assessed via testing?– What would Prometric say?

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 21

Team Selection Predictors

• Technical (often needed)• Stevens & Campion (‘94) Team KSAs

• Interpersonal & Self-management• The knowledge, skill, and ability requirements for teamwork

: Implications for human resource management (Michael J. Stevens Michael A. Campion, ‘94)

• Staffing Work Teams: Development and Validation of a Selection Test for Teamwork Settings (Stevens & Campion, ‘99)

• Selection in Teams: An Exploration of the Teamwork Knowledge, Skills, and Ability Test (McClough & Rogelberg, ‘03)

• Use of situational judgment tests to predict job performance: A clarification of the literature. (McDaniel, et al. ‘01)