Understanding CHANGE

Where does change come from in our societies?

Change agents: Human interventions, free-will

Zeitgeist: Determinism, the ‘invisible hand’

Contingency: The ‘synchronisation’ of circumstances

What are the consequences of change?

Anticipated or unanticipatedEvidence that the person intended these consequences or not?

Direct or indirectDoes the change directly causes that impact or not?

Desirable or undesirable Are the effects positive for the stakeholders?*

Rosa "Lee" Louise Parks

U.S. Congress:“Mother of the Civil Rights Movement”

Famous for her refusal on December 1, 1955 to give up a bus seat to a white man when ordered to do so by the bus driver

• An unfair system• Not the first woman to do it• Not the first time she did it• An activist for 12 years• Husband supported her high-school

studies• Dec 4th is formed the Montgomery

Improvement Association (MIA) leaded by Martin Luther King

• “Montgomery Bus Boycott” unexpected response (381 days)

• Sparked many other segregation protests in the USA

• Many black churches were dynamited

Change agents are product of their

time/society

They 'trigger' changes but, ultimately, societies collectively decide if/when changes occur

1893: World’s Exposition (Chicago), fascinated by a German chocolate-making exhibit

Purchased and shipped the equipment to Lancaster to produce chocolates

Hershey built a chocolate factory in Derry, PA (dairy farms)

Experimented with many flavours (onion, beet...) Hershey specialized in the affordable “nickel” bar Became the first nationally marketed product of its

kind sold in grocery stores, newsstands, and vending machines

Built a residential town for the workers, a school for orphan boys, a medical center, an amusement park -today this city is named Hershey, Pennsylvania

Only selected information gets revealed...

Who were the first customers? Who sold him the chocolate

equipment in Chicago? Who bought the Lancaster Caramel

Company for 1million? Who invested money on his

businesses after 10 years of bankruptcy?

Who discovered penicillin?

a) Ernst Boris Chainb) Alexander Flemingc) Howard Walter Floreyd) all of the abovee) none of them

“In 1929, I published that it would be useful for the treatment of infections with sensitive microbes, but few people paid any attention up to 1936.

Chain and Florey took up the investigation and succeeded... beyond the wildest dreams I could possibly have had in those early days”

Penicillium notatum Westl.

Richard Westling (Swedish professor) discovered it in 1911 but did not publish its antibacterial power Penicillin is not the first antibacterial, but the first antibacterial not antileucocytic (harmless) Fleming saw its potential but was unable to produce a stable strain Chain and Florey (Oxford) successfully treated mice and published in 1940, the world was at war Huge investments enabled industrial production

Results: about 450,000 for "Alexander Fleming"

Results: about 108,000 for "Ernst Chain"

Results: about 97,800 for "Howard Florey"

Results: about 6,420 for "Richard Westling"

Unexpected consequences

Rosa Lee Parks

Milton Hershey

Alexander Fleming

Unexpected consequences

Rosa Lee Parks Overwhelming positive response in many cities

Milton Hershey Part of the obesity epidemics in children & diabetes

Alexander Fleming Bacteria resistance to penicillin from 'underdosing'

Diffusion of innovations

Diffusion

Process by which A new idea is communicated Or spread in a social group And becomes an innovation

Diffusion is a type of social change Diffusion is behind ________________

Diffusion

M-payment is not yet diffused in Mexico, so it's still a good idea, not an innovation!

Diffusion

Herorat.org: training and using rats to sniff landmines in Africa is an innovation! (training process, adoption scheme)

The designed environment has an important role in social

change: it creates opportunities and incentivates certain

behaviours over others

Diffusion

“The process by which new ideas become real solutions”

Solutions available to social groups Adoption or rejection decisions Consequences

Diffusion is uncertain

Hard to predict how people will respond (future)

Hard to interpret the reasons behind their choices (past)

Most new ideas/products are not diffused and

adopted rapidly

Even when they have obvious, proven advantages

$500 dollars

Diffusion curves

Sigmoid function S-shape curves

time: cumulative adoption

number of adopters

Diffusion curves

‘Tipping point’ At about 10 to 25% adoption*

‘Inflection point’ At about 75 to 90% adoption*

(Hard to distinguish start/end)

time: cumulative adoption

types of adopters

The S-shape curve

Once a few adopt, they tell others about the innovation and the number of adopters per unit of time takes off (word of mouth)

Until the market potential decreases, influence becomes redundant and adoption slows down

Critical mass

Point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation’s further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining

That means:“Diffusion continues no matter what”

Adopter categories

Early adoptersMass adoptersLate adoptersLaggards

(avoid clichés)

Enabling strategies

Target opinion leaders Shape individual’s perceptions of the

innovation Target early adopters first, but do not

focus only on them Provide incentives for adoption Promote negotiation and interpretations Any design strategies?

Different external influences

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Different aggregate influence

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same end result

Constant critical mass,different end result

“Zeitgeist”German for “spirit of the time”

The intellectual and cultural 'climate' of an era

Some experts attribute innovation to this “social order” that demands and values new solutions

Zeitgeist

Rosa Lee Parks

Milton Hershey

Alexander Fleming

Zeitgeist

Rosa Lee Parks Mass-media, democracy, social changes, politics

Milton Hershey Middle class, mass production, supermarkets

Alexander Fleming War, research, bacteriology, chemistry, medicine

www.google.com/trends

“What you see here is a cumulative snapshot of interesting queries people

are asking over time that perhaps reveal a bit of the human condition”

“Zeitgeist”

Refers to the “climate” of an era including:

• Shared problems and issues• Shared beliefs and values• Open questions and debates• A particular state of technology• Comparison and acceptance of ideas

(but be careful interpreting the results!)

“Zeitgeist” in innovation

• Multiple discoveries or inventions (telephone, ADN)• Focus on a set of problems (household appliances in USA late XIX century)• “Spillover” effects: one innovation leads to many more• Patents, licensing and VC (venture capital) (dot-com bubble in 1999)• “Fertile ground” processes (Sushi-ito)• Competitions’ topics and judges (agendas)• Market, culture and aesthetic trends• Funding and media attention

Characteristicsof innovations

Characteristics of innovations

Relative advantage ● Perceived as a better solution

Compatibility ● Perceived as consistent with values & experience

Complexity ● Perceived as difficult to understand and use

Trialability ● Experimented with on a limited basis

Observability ● Results are visible to others

Adaptability ● Value adapts to users' perceptions

Evidence shows that innovations that diffuse rapidly have:

- greater perceived advantages- greater compatibility- greater trialability- greater observability- greater adaptability- less complexity

Trialability

Observability

Compatibility

Complexity

Adaptability

- individual activity-

Write down how could you address the characteristics of innovations, diffusion and unexpected consequences in your Design Studio project...