Chad McNutt and Lisa Darby NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory/Climate Program Office

NIDIS Background

Southeast Drought Outlook Forum (Dec. 1)

NIDIS ACF Pilot Update Meeting (Dec. 2)

Public Law 109-430 (The NIDIS Act 2006)

• “Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to managing drought risks and impacts”

• “better informed and more timely drought-related decisions leading to reduced impacts and costs”

NIDIS Objectives• Coordinating national

drought monitoring and forecasting systems

• Providing an interactive drought information clearinghouse and delivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)

• Designing mechanisms for improving and incorporating information to support coordinated preparedness and planning

Missouri

Oklahoma

Montana

Chesapeake Bay

NIDIS Early Warning Systems PilotsHighlighted-first round prototypes;

Others-Regional DEWS & transferability

Southeast

Colorado River Basin

California

Columbia River Basin

Great Plains

Great Lakes

Tennessee Valley

NIDIS ACF Pilot Drought Early Warning Information System in

Review

Southeast Drought Outlook Forum

November 18, 2010 Albany December 1, 2011 Lake

Lanier• Observed and predicted state

of climate system in the SE• Implications of SE Outlook on

ACF

•Discussion of short-term and long-term vulnerabilities

Albany in Nov 2010 – strong La Nina, forecast for it to cont. throughout the winter did verify• Impact on rainfall across ACF

generally as expected• Impact on temperatures

across ACF not as expected: AO/NAO led to unusually cold December; some return to above-normal temperatures in Jan/Feb

Spring impacts were largely La Nina-like

Review of 2010 Outlook Forum-D. Zierden

There has been some short-term improvement in conditions over the past 60-90 days, which has helped ameliorate some of the drought impacts

2011-2012 winter and spring recharge in the ACF Basin will be crucial in determining the persistence and intensity of drought conditions

Current Conditions-V. Murphy

Lanier Calculated Inflows vs Rainfall Surplus/Deficits (Climate Division 2 and 3)

La Nina has redeveloped and is expected to persist throughout the winter• AO/NAO continues to be erratic and difficult to

predict

Expected La Nina impacts for this winter:• Better chance for warmer-than-normal

temperatures• Better change for drier-than-normal precipitation

Bottom line: drought likely to persist in ACF

Winter Outlook-M. Halpert

Winter Outlook-M. Halpert

3-Month Temperature Outlook

3-Month Precipitation Outlook

Forecast for the primary recharge period (winter and spring) for ACF Basin is as follows:• Greatest likelihood is for

below-normal inflows into Lake Lanier

• Greatest likelihood is for below-normal streamflow in the Flint, Chattahoochee, and Apalachicola Rivers

There is some uncertainty in these outlooks • Factors other than La Nina

can become dominant over short periods (e.g., AO/NAO)

La Nina & ACF Recharge-J. Dobur

Lake Lanier Inflows

Upper Flint

Lower Chattahoochee

Apalachicola

Historical Data – December – February Period

La Nina will continue through the winter But, this La Nina is weaker than last winter’s Slight odds of a third winter of La Nina conditions in 2012-2013 (“triple

delight”) Any return to El Nino in 2012 would likely benefit ACF (but historically,

more reliable impact would be in other drought-stricken areas such as Texas)

La Nina Forecast-K. Wolter

3yr La Niña 2yr La Niña

Lake Lanier – 3 Month Forecast-B. Crane

2011 Observed Elevations10th Percentile Hydrology25th Percentile Hydrology50th Percentile Hydrology

Top of Conservation

NIDIS ACF Pilot Update Meeting Results & Next Steps

Committees keep working• Education & Outreach• Data Committee

Webinars (~monthly)• USACE collaborate with NIDIS for drought

calls

How are we providing early warning?• Issue Drought Watch advisory• Distribute fact sheets

Thank you

Southeast Climate Outlook Forum

ENSO Status

Current Conditions

Effects of ENSO

3-Month Seasonal Forecast

Impacts&

Vulnerability

New Climate Water Efforts• Skillful drought and flood outlooks

for a range of climate time-scales based on process understanding of watershed-scale hydrologic budgets

• Regional drought monitoring tools and impact assessments

• Hydroclimate information system enhancements such as inputs into watershed plus state and local drought plans and operations