cge models for climate policy simulation: some critical thoughts

8/9/2019 CGE models for climate policy simulation: Some critical thoughts

1/19

AJE ocbelq gcv alnokre xclna~ qnoulkrnci=

Qcoe avnrnakl rdcujdrq

Qkrcqdn @cmnok

Bnvearcv, Eacico~ kib Eiwnvcioeir Jvcux

Niqrnrure gcv Jlcfkl Eiwnvcioeirkl Qrvkrejneq $NJEQ.

Alnokre Xclna~ Qnoulkrnci Rccl $AXQR. Fvkniqrcvonij Oeernij

;5/;7 Mul~ 68;8, Qdkijvn/Lk Dcrel, Fkij`c`, Rdknlkib

Niqrnrure gcv JlcfklEiwnvcioeirkl Qrvkrejneq


2/19

Curlnie

Nirvcbuarnci = ieaeqqnr~ cg avnrnakl etkonikrnci cg lnonrkrnciq

Qacxe cg AJE kxxlnakrnci 6 r~xeq cg xclna~ noxkarq

Bnggnaulr~ ni lcij/vui kqqeqqoeir

Bnqacuirnij xvcfleoq

Xclna~ acqr nqqueq $e)j) kfkreoeir acqrq.

Acxnij znrd uiaevrknir~

Xclna~ xlkiinij kib xclna~ noxleoeirkrnci

Acialuqnciq

6Niqrnrure gcv JlcfklEiwnvcioeirkl Qrvkrejneq


3/19

AJE/fkqeb alnokre xclna~ qnoulkrnci3

AJE/fkqeb alnokre xclna~ qnoulkrnci ok~ xlk~ k aeirvkl vcle ni AXQR)

Eacicona noxkarq cg alnokre adkije kib alnokre adkije xclna~ rdvcujd nirev/qearcvkl lni`kjeq kve noxcvrkir) Fcrd okmcv aciqe{ueiaeq kib bvnwevq cgeiwnvcioeirkl kib qcankl noxkarq)

Oulrn/vejncikl AJE qeeoq qunrkfle rc kqqeqq nirevikrncikl noxkarq cg bcoeqrna

xclnaneq kq zell kq noxkarq cg nirevikrncikl xclna~ accvbnikrnci)

Rc etxlcve quad xcqqnfnlnr~, ieeb rc avnrnakll~ etkonie gcllcznij lnonrkrnciq=

Qacxe cg AJE kxxlnakrnci

Bnggnaulr~ ni lcij/vui kqqeqqoeir

Xclna~ acqr nqqueq $e)j) kfkreoeir acqrq. Acxnij znrd uiaevrknir~



4/19

Qacxe cg AJE kxxlnakrnci= 6 r~xeq cg alnokre xclna~ noxkarq

Bnvear xclna~ noxkarq

Noxkarq akuqeb f~ noxleoeirkrnci cg alnokre xclnaneq nrqelg= e)j) niglueiae cg

akvfci xvnanij ci okv`er acibnrnciq, knv xcllurnci onrnjkrnci kqqeqqoeir, era)

Onrnjkrnci $cv kbkxrkrnci. noxkarq

Noxkarq cg alnokre adkije onrnjkrnci $cv kbkxrkrnci. nibuaeb f~ alnokre xclnaneq=

e)j) noxkarq cg ocve qrkfle gccb xvcbuarnci, noxkarq cg leqq glccb, noxkarq cg

leqq bkokjeq gvco etrveoe alnokre acibnrnciq, era)

Rde~ dkwe bnggeveir adkvkarevnqrnaq)

Rnoe/lkj= Bnvear xclna~ noxkarq aki fe jeievkreb ni ouad qdcvrev xevncb rdkionrnjkrnci#kbkxrkrnci noxkarq)

Uiaevrknir~= Onrnjkrnci#kbkxrkrnci noxkarq bexeib ci alnokre adkije qewevnr~ kibrde~ kve kqqcankreb znrd ouad dnjdev uiaevrknir~ rdki bnvear xclna~ noxkarq)

Alnokre adkije bexeibeiae= Bnvear xclna~ noxkarq okrrev vejkvbleqq cg karukl

alnokre adkije eweirq)



5/19

Xclna~ noxlnakrnciq

Eibq kib oekiq cg xclna~

Onrnjkrnci#kbkxrkrnci noxkarq kve cvnjnikll~ eibq cg alnokre xclnaneq) Dczewev,kqqeqqnij rdeqe noxkarq kve wev~ bnggnaulr bue rc rnoe qakle kib dnjd uiaevrknir~)

Bnvear xclna~ noxkarq kve cvnjnikll~ oekiq $cv f~/ xvcbuarq. cg alnokre xclnaneq,

fur ekqnev rc kqqeqq) Ni xvkarnae, ocve muqrngnkfle kib vcfuqr xclna~ eibq)

Xcreirnkl okjinrube cg noxkarq

Onrnjkrnci#kbkxrkrnci noxkarq kve xcreirnkll~ duje kq xcreirnkl bkokje cg

akrkqrvcxdna alnokre adkije nq nooeiqe $a)g) rde Qrevi Vewnez.) Fur bue rc dnjd

uiaevrknir~ icr ieaeqqkvnl~ aciwnianij rc muqrng~ xclna~)



6/19

Veacooeibeb qacxe cg AJE kikl~qnq

Onrnjkrnci noxkarq gcv rkvjer qerrnij

Onrnjkrnci noxkarq onjdr icr fe qunrkfle qufmear cg {ukirnrkrnwe kqqeqqoeir gcv

acqr/feiegnr kikl~qnq $AFK.) Vkrdev, ferrev rc veglear rdeo rc rkvjer qerrnij

rdvcujd xclnrnakl xvcaeqq) Nialuqnci cg onrnjkrnci noxkarq ni AFK akuqeq

acirvcwevq~)

Noxkarq cg kbkxrkrnci xclnaneq ieeb rc fe kbbveqqeb f~ qaneirngna ocbelq, e)j)d~bvclcjnakl ocbelq, eaclcjnakl ocbelq, era)

Rdeqe znll fe bcie curqnbe AJE kikl~qnq

Bnvear xclna~ noxkarq gcv beociqrvkrnij xclna~ feiegnrq

Bnvear xclna~ noxkarq kve gvee gvco acirvcwevq~ cwev dnjd uiaevrknir~ ni alnokre

qaneiae) Ciae beociqrvkrnij ier feiegnrq cg alnokre xclna~ fkqeb ci rdeqe

noxkarq, xclna~ muqrngnakrnci nq vcfuqr)

Rdnq nq qunrkfle gcv AJE kikl~qnq



7/19

Dcz rc veglear kfkreoeir acqrq ni AJE3

Noxcvrkiae cg kfkreoeir acqrq

@e~ bvnwev cg eacicona noxkarq) Qearcv/qxeangna kib acuirv~/qxeangna kfkreoeir acqrq kve avuankl nigcvokrnci rc

kikl~qe noxkarq cg alnokre xclnaneq ci acoxernrnweieqq)

Bnggnaulr~ ni eqrnokrnij kfkreoeir acqrq

Fcrrco/ux kxxvckad eqrnokreq etxeibnruveq cg qearcv gcv kfkreoeir karnciq) Fur

rdeqe etxeibnruveq kve icr ieaeqqkvnl~ acqrq gcv ki eacico~ $aculb fe

veqcuvae vekllcakrnci.)

Rcx/bczi kxxvckad rvneq rc akxruve kfkreoeir acqrq gcv ki eacico~ kq lcqq cgxvcbuarnwnr~ $e)j) JBX xev nixur. kq k vequlr cg kfkreoeir karnwnrneq) Oki~ AJE

qrubneq eoxlc~ rdnq kxxvckad)

:Niqrnrure gcv JlcfklEiwnvcioeirkl Qrvkrejneq


8/19

Kfkreoeir acqrq ni AJE qrubneq

AJE/fkqe eqrnokrnci oevel~ veglear onrnjkrnci oeadkinqoq vegleareb f~ rde

ocbelq)

Oknil~ qufqrnrurnci eggearq bue rc xvnae adkije $e)j) akvfci xvnanij.)

Oki~ qrubneq bc icr eqrnokre qearcv/qxeangna kib acuirv~/qxeangna kfkreoeir

acqrq, zdnad kve `e~ rc kikl~qe acoxernrnweieqq nqqueq)

Adklleijeq rc veglear qearcv qxeangna kfkreoeir acqrq Nbekll~, kfkreoeir acqrq znll fe ocbelleb kq kbbnrncikl nixurq $nirevoebnkre

nixurq quad kq e{unxoeirq, cv gkarcv nixurq quad kq lkfcuv kib akxnrkl. gcv

kfkreoeir karnwnrneq znrd vebuaeb xvcbuarnwnr~ kq rdeqe nixurq bc icr bnvearl~

acirvnfure rc xvcbuarnci)

Ni xvkarnae, quad qnoulkrnci nq bnggnaulr kq rdeqe wkvnkfleq kve eibcjeicuq

wkvnkfleq) Acoxvconqe ok~ fe muqr vebuanij acvveqxcibnij xvcbuarnwnr~

xkvkoerevq)



9/19

AJE ocbelq kib lcij/vui eiwnvcioeirkl xvcfleoq

Nq AJE kikl~qnq velewkir gcv lcij/vui3

Ocbel xkvkoerevq $readiclcj~ xkvkoerevq, fedkwncvkl xkvkoerevq quad kqxvegeveiae cg acoocbnrneq. ok~ adkije gcv lcij/vui)

Eacicona acibnrnciq, qcankl qrvuaruveq ok~ bvkqrnakll~ adkije fe~cib cuvetxearkrnci)

Ferrev rc veqrvnar qdcvr/ cv onb/revo $qk~, ;8 68 ~ekvq.)

Dcz rc veglear lcij/vui eiwnvcioeirkl noxkarq ln`e alnokre adkije3

Vel~ ci qaneirngna vequlrq $e)j) alnokre ocbel. rc qer xclna~ rkvjerq gcv qnoulkrnci)

Gcv etkoxle, qerrnij k 68% JDJ eonqqnci vebuarnci f~ 6868, aciqnbevnij rdexcreirnkl alnokre adkije gcv lcij/vui)

AJE ocbel aki xvcwnbe xcreirnkl noxkarq cg xclnaneq rc kadnewe jnwei rkvjerq)

Uqnij AJE ocbelq gcv lcij/vui acqr/feiegnr kikl~qnq akiicr kwcnb

bnqacuirnij xvcfleoq)

>Niqrnrure gcv JlcfklEiwnvcioeirkl Qrvkrejneq


10/19

Bnqacuirnij xvcfleoq

Lcij/vui acqr/feiegnr kikl~qnq gkaeq bnqacuirnij xvcfleoq= Icvokrnwe wq)

Xcqnrnwe

Gcv lcij/vui, qerrnij qnjingnakir bnqacuir vkre vequlrq ni njicvnij guruve eweirq)

Etkoxle= ;88 ~ekvq aciqe{ueiaeq= ;%#~ekv /9 1:%, 5%#~ekv /9 8)4%+

Qcoe kvjue lcz bnqacuirnij vkre rc kwcnb njicvkiae cg guruve $Icvokrnwebnqacuirnij.

Qcoe kvjue eoxnvnakl cfqevwkrnci nibnakreq {unre dnjd bnqacuirnij $5 ;8%.,kib qerrnij uiveklnqrna lcz bnqacuirnij vkre nq nvvelewkir)

@cmnok $6887. kvjueq rdkr icvokrnwe kib xcqnrnwe vkreq kve bnggeveir kib rde~

aki acetnqr)

;8Niqrnrure gcv JlcfklEiwnvcioeirkl Qrvkrejneq


11/19

Bnqacuirnij nqque= Veaciqnbevkrnci cg xvnwkre urnlnr~ guiarnci

Veaciqnbev rde oekinij cg nirevreoxcvkl urnlnr~ cxrnonqknci)

Jcvoki $;>5:. bnqrnijunqdeb auvveir qkrnqgkarnci, revoeb kq gelnanr~, gvco

urnlnr~ begnieb kq rde dnjdeqr xcqqnfle kwevkje lewel cg gelnanr~)

Qrvcr} $;>57. ka`iczlebjeb rdkr rde auvveir urnlnr~ ok~ bexeib ci rde

aciquoxrnci cg k lkrev bkre, kib avnrnan}eb rde revo niqrkirkiecuq urnlnr~ kq konqicoev)

Lerq begnie

Gelnanr~= eimc~oeir $cv qkrnqgkarnci. bevnweb gvco rde auvveir karnwnrneq cveiwnvcioeir)

Urnlnr~= eimc~oeir $cv qkrnqgkarnci. bevnweb icr cil~ gvco rde auvveir acibnrnciq

fur klqc gvco rde etxearkrnciq cg guruve gelnanr~)

;;Niqrnrure gcv JlcfklEiwnvcioeirkl Qrvkrejneq

U=Urnlnr~ guiarnci cg k dcuqedclb ni rnoe r

u$r.=gelnanr~ guiarnci ni rnoe r

= xuve vkre cg rnoe xvegeveiae

$ .brrueU r

?

8


12/19

Acetnqreiae cg 6 bnqacuir vkreq ni qcankl zelgkve guiarnci

Rdei, ni rde qcankl zelgkve guiarnci, icvokrnwe kib xcqnrnwe vkreq acetnqr)


bJbrrueebJJUeQZR

J

rJR J

??

88.$.$

J= Jrdjeievkrnci

= k zenjdr gcv Jrdjeievkrnciq urnlnr~, cv ni crdev zcvb qcankl bnqacuirnij vkre)

Qcankl bnqacuirnij vkre ouqr fe berevonieb gvco icvokrnwe xevqxearnwe)

Vkoqe~q gkocuq kxdcvnqo= ki~ ici}evc bnqacuir vkre nq erdnakll~ nibegeiqnfle

$Vkoqe~ ;>64.)

Fur nq nr ki kxxvcxvnkre zk~ rc rvekr nirevjeievkrncikl e{unr~3

Nirevjeievkrncikl e{unr~ ouqr fe kfcur aciqevwkrnci cg rde fkqnq cg duoki quvwnwkl, kib

nirevjeievkrncikl aciqnbevkrnciq ouqr fe bcie curqnbe acqr/feiegnr kikl~qnq)


13/19

Uiaevrknir~ nqqueq

Uiaevrknir~ aki fe vegleareb ni AJE kikl~qnq f~ qexkvkrnij xclna~ xlkiinijqrkje kib xclna~ noxleoeirkrnci qrkje)

Xclna~ xlkiinij nq fkqeb ci etxearkrnci ci guruve acibnrnciq $xvnae xkrdq,xvcbuarnwnr~ gluarukrnci, alnokrna acibnrnciq, era).)

Noxkarq cg xclna~ noxleoeirkrnci aki fe kqqeqqeb kjkniqr vekln}eb

acibnrnciq) Gcv etkoxle, ki~ vkibco qdca`q aki fe nirvcbuaeb rdvcujd Ocire

Akvlc qnoulkrnciq) Rdnq kxxvckad nq aciaexrukll~ qnoxle, kib ekq~ rc kqqeqq wkvncuq kqxearq

quad kq vcfuqrieqq kjkniqr fkb eweirq)

Rdnq kxxvckad qeeoq xkvrnaulkvl~ velewkir gcv xclna~ qnoulkrnci gcv kbkxrkrnci)



14/19

Nlluqrvkrnwe etkoxle cg rdnq kxxvckad

@cmnok $688:. bewelcxeb ki kxxlneb Vkoqe~ r~xe jvczrd ocbel rc kqqeqqquqrknikfle bewelcxoeir xclnaneq=

Aki fe vejkvbeb kq gull/b~ikona qokll/qakle AJE ocbel $1 xvcbuarnci qearcvq,kib rde jcwevioeir kq xvcwnbev cg xuflna qevwnaeq quad kq zkrev kib nvvnjkreblkib.)

1 qearcvq kve= vkni/geb kjvnaulruve, nvvnjkreb kjvnaulruve, kib crdev qearcvq)

Wulievkfnlnr~ cg vkni/geb kjvnaulruve nq ocbelleb rdvcujd k qrcadkqrna vnq` gkarcv) Ocvecwev, uiaevrknir~ nq ocbelleb kq qrcadkqrna gcvenji etadkije vkre)

Rdei, cxrnokl xclna~ nq berevonieb fkqeb ci etxearkrnci cg rdee beanqnci/ok`ev, zdnle xclna~ noxkarq kve bevnweb rdvcujd Ocire/Akvlc qnoulkrnciq)



15/19

Nlluqrvkrnwe etkoxle= Qcoe iuoevnakl vequlrq


/18

8

18

78

>8

; 1 5 : > ;; ;1 ;5

EWP

BD#akxnrk#~e

kv_

êkv

Oeki E{unwkleir Wkvnkrnciq

Klr2 $Fkqe. Klr2 $AA;.

/688

/;88

8

;88

688

; 1 5 : > ;; ;1 ;5

EWP

BD#akxnrk#~ekv_

êkv

Kiiukl EW $Fkqe/Klr2.

/688

/;88

8

;88

688

; 1 5 : > ;; ;1 ;5

EWP

BD#akxnrk#~ekv_

êkv

Kiiukl EW $AA;/Klr2.

AA;= Qrkibkvb

bewnkrnci cg vkni/geb

kjvnaulruvkl qearcvqvnq` gkarcv niavekqeb

68% gvco rde fkqe

qaeikvnc,

vexveqeirnij

xcreirnkl iejkrnwenoxkarq cg alnokre

adkije)

Oeki wklue nq icr

wev~ kggeareb, fur

gluarukrnci cg

xcqqnfle curacoeq

nq bvkqrnakll~

niavekqeb)Qcuvae= @cmnok 688: $kbkxreb.


16/19

Acialuqnci $;.

Rdnq xveqeirkrnci avnrnakll~ etkonieq rde lnonrkrnciq#xvcfleoq cg AJEocbelq rc fe kxxlneb gcv alnokre xclna~ qnoulkrnciq)

Rc aciqnbev rde qacxe cg AJE kxxlnakrnci rc alnokre xclna~ qnoulkrnciq,ferrev rc bnqrnijunqd 6 r~xeq cg xclna~ noxkarq= bnvear xclna~ noxkarq kibonrnjkrnci#kbkxrkrnci noxkarq)

Bnvear xclna~ noxkarq, e)j) niglueiae cg akvfci xvnanij ci okv`er acibnrnciq,

aki fe qnoulkreb f~ AJE ocbelq Kqqeqqoeir cg onrnjkrnci#kbkxrkrnci noxkarq ieeb rc fe bcie f~ qaneirngna

ocbelq curqnbe AJE ocbelq)

Ocbellnij xclna~ acqrq $e)j) kfkreoeir acqrq. nq k adklleije)

Qdca`nij xvcbuarnci nixurq $eibcjeicuq ni begkulr. nq xvkarnakll~ bnggnaulr) Xcreirnkl acoxvconqe nq rc vebuae xvcbuarnwnr~ cg xvcbuarnci nixurq)



17/19

Acialuqnci $6.

AJE ocbelq kve icr qunrkfle gcv lcij/vui qnoulkrnciq)

Ocbel xkvkoerevq ok~ adkije ni rde lcij/vui)

Eacicona acibnrnciq kib qcankl qrvuaruveq ok~ bvkqrnakll~ adkije)

Lcij/vui acqr feiegnr kikl~qnq akiicr fe gvee gvco bnqacuirnij xvcfleoq)

Nirevjeievkrncikl e{unr~ ouqr fe kfcur aciqevwkrnci cg rde fkqnq cg duokiquvwnwkl, icr kfcur acqr/feiegnr)

Ferrev rc veqrvnar rnoe gvkoe cg AJE kikl~qnq rc qdcvr/ cv onb/revo)

Uiaevrknir~ nqque aki fe vegleareb ni AJE ocbelq f~ qexkvkrnij xclna~xlkiinij fkqeb ci etxearkrnci kib xclna~ noxleoeirkrnci uibev uiaevrknir~)

Rdnq kxxvckad nq xkvrnaulkvl~ velewkir gcv kbkxrkrnci xclna~ qnoulkrnci)

;:Niqrnrure gcv JlcfklEiwnvcioeirkl Qrvkrejneq


18/19

;4

Rdki` ~cu gcv ~cuv krreirnci)

Acirkar kbbveqq= `cmnokHnjeq)cv)mx

Niqrnrure gcv JlcfklEiwnvcioeirkl Qrvkrejneq


19/19

Vegeveiae

Jcvoki, Znllnko O) $;>5:., Aciwet nibnggeveiae auvweq kib bnoninqdnij okvjniklurnlnr~, Mcuvikl cg Xclnrnakl Eacico~, 75 $;., 2858)

Dkile~, Ina`) er kl) $;>>:., Eiwnvcioeirkl Eaciconaq ni Rdecv~ kib Xvkarnae, Ctgcvb=Ctgcvb Uinwevqnr~ Xveqq)

@cmnok ,Qkrcqdn $688:. Quqrknikfle Bewelcxoeir ni Zkrev/qrveqqeb BewelcxnijAcuirvneq= K [ukirnrkrnwe Xclna~ Kikl~qnq) Adelreidko= Ebzkvb Eljkv)

@cmnok ,Qkrcqdn $6887. Veaciqnbevkrnci cg b~ikona urnlnr~ cxrnonqkrnci kibnirevjeievkrncikl e{unr~ ni quqrknikfle bewelcxoeir qrubneq, Nirevikrncikl Mcuviklcg Eaclcjnakl Eaciconaq kib Qrkrnqrnaq, 7=67/17)

Vkoqe~, Gvki` X) $;>64., K okrdeokrnakl rdecv~ cg qkwnij, Eacicona Mcuvikl, 14,5215>)

Qrvcr}, Vcfevr D) $;>57., O~cxnk kib niaciqnqreia~ ni b~ikona urnlnr~ oktnonqkrnci,Vewnez cg Eacicona Qrubneq, 61, ;7548)

;>Niqrnrure gcv JlcfklEiwnvcioeirkl Qrvkrejneq

cge models for climate policy simulation: some critical thoughts

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