cfc in brief - displacement in afghanistan: post-2014 origins, current situation and potential...

7/29/2019 CFC In Brief - Displacement in Afghanistan: Post-2014 Origins, Current Situation and Potential Flows, 25 February

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AFGHANISTAN IN-BRIEF

March 2013 Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises

Afghanistan In-BriefDisplacement in Afghanistan: Post-2014

Origins, Current Situation and Potential Flows

Rainer Gonzalez PalauAfghanistan Team Leader & Social and Strategic Infrastructure Desk Officer

rainer.gonzalez @cimicweb.org

This document provides an overview of the origins and current challenges of displacement flows by refugees and IDPs inAfghanistan. Furthermore, it presents, based on an open-source research, the potential flows that could occur inAfghanistan post 2014. Related information is available at www.cimicweb.org. Hyperlinks to source material arehighlighted in blue and underlined in the text.

istorically, severe fluctuations in displacement and population movement in Afghanistan correlate to

periods of armed conflict and political instability, according to the Overseas Development Institute.

These periods include: the Soviet invasion (197888); the Soviet withdrawal and the subsequent civil

war (198996); the Taliban rule (1996-2001); the post-9/11 US-led invasion (2001-2002); the defeat of the

Taliban and the establishment of an interim government (2002-2004); and the neo-Taliban insurgency (2004 to thepresent). Data compiled by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in 2009 suggests that76 per cent

of Afghansare displaced at least once in their lives.

The think tank STATT categorises the patterns that define displacement and population movement in Afghanistan

as economic migration, conflict-induced migration and elite migration. Economic migration is primarily from

rural to urban areas and from Afghanistan to neighbouring Iran and Pakistan. Some labour immigrants also

migrate to Central Asia and Gulf Countries, as well as Europe, North America and Australia. Migration from rural

to urban areas is unidirectional, permanent and involves entire families. Migration to Iran is most common among

Afghan men, many of whom make multiple journeys, earning income critical to support their families back home.

On the other hand, Afghan migration to Pakistan has historically been characterised as conflict induced, but has

also involved a strong economic incentive as a temporary destination. Conflict-induced migration has generated

more than three million Afghan refugees fleeing insecurity, mainly as an internally displaced persons (IDPs), but

also seeking refuge in neighbouring Pakistan and Iran. The situation in Pakistan is tense and uncertain; as the

Pakistani government, partly due to the countrys own security and economic troubles, applies an ambivalent

approach towards hosting the large number of Afghan refugees. In Iran, Afghan refugees suffer severe working

H
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conditions in the informal sector. Iranian authorities regard them as a burden, resulting in at least 150,000 forced

returns in 2011 alone, as well asrecurrent human rights violations, claims Human Rights Watch (HRW). Despite

the heavy flow of returning refugees between 2002 and 2008, voluntary repatriations led by the United Nations

High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) have steadily declined, given that many returnees struggle to rebuild

their lives while encountering worse and more uncertain living conditions than in their countries of asylum. Elite

migration has been overlooked during the last decade, with the only reliable data dating from 2000. Civil society

activists have voiced concerns over a growing number of skilled Afghans seeking asylum abroad. This brain

drain could further weaken the country, as those most qualified to rebuild the country are the ones most likely to

leave. The Parliamentary Commission on International Affairs has, for instance, reported that in the past eight

years, governmental officials, diplomats, journalists, athletes and students have not returned to Afghanistan after

visiting abroad.

According to a joint report by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan and the United Nations

Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, there are approximately 425,900 IDPs in Afghanistan,

including64 per cent children(0-18 years), of whom90 per centoriginate from rural communities. UNHCR says

thatcauses of internal displacementvary across regions; however, the most common causes are: armed conflict,

general insecurity, threats/intimidation, military operations, internal tribal conflict, cross border shelling,

extortion, forced recruitment, illegal-taxation and land disputes. Humanitarian organisations lack access to 95 per

cent of IDPS in southeast Afghanistan, 80 per cent of IDPs in northern Afghanistan and 55 per cent in north-

eastern Afghanistan.

Displacement Figures

The following section is a compilation of the most relevant figures that show displacement of refugees and IDPs

from and to Afghanistan during the last decade.

There are 1.9 million registeredAfghan refugeesand 1 million undocumented Afghans in Pakistan. In Iran, thenumber of registered refugees is around 1.4 million and the undocumented are at 1 million, according to the

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Approximately forty per cent ofAfghan refugeesin Pakistan live in refugee villages/camps and sixty per centin rural and urban areas. In Iran, only three per cent of Afghans live in rural areas, according to UNHCR.

Ethnically, the majority of Afghan refugees in Pakistan are Pashtun (85 per cent), whereas those seeking refugein Iran are Hazaras and Tajiks (70 per cent), adds UNHCR.

The largest demographic group of Afghan refugees in Pakistan includes children up to nine years old, anindication of the high growth rate among the Afghan refugees, according to a joint report by UNCHR and the

World Bank. In Iran, fifty per cent of the registered refugees are younger than eighteen years. Each year, the

Afghan population in Pakistan increases at a higher rate than the number of individuals repatriated to

Afghanistan from its neighbouring country.

Since 2002, more than5.7 millionAfghan refugees have returned to Afghanistan, 4.3 million of them with theassistance of UNHCR (Figure 1). The major flow of refugees occurred during the period 2002-2008, but

overall figures for returnees during the last years have declined due to worsening economic and security

prospects and difficulties with reintegration.Kabul and the eastern provinceshave been the destinations for 20

per cent of returnees (Figure 2).

In terms ofethnic groups, 56 per cent of the returnees were Pashtuns, 25 per cent Tajiks, 8 per cent Hazarasand 11 per cent other ethnicities, according to UNHCR.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&cad=rja&ved=0CHkQFjAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hrw.org%2Fnews%2F2002%2F02%2F25%2Fafghan-refugees-mistreated-exile-afraid-go-home&ei=yOciUffrH-n_yQHRnYCQBQ&usg=AFQjCNHPuSYBec6HWtOd3etpQAcRyj0jVg&sig2=0QI33tFyIGvvoDKKpA0NYw&bvm=bv.42553238,d.aWchttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&cad=rja&ved=0CHkQFjAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hrw.org%2Fnews%2F2002%2F02%2F25%2Fafghan-refugees-mistreated-exile-afraid-go-home&ei=yOciUffrH-n_yQHRnYCQBQ&usg=AFQjCNHPuSYBec6HWtOd3etpQAcRyj0jVg&sig2=0QI33tFyIGvvoDKKpA0NYw&bvm=bv.42553238,d.aWchttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&cad=rja&ved=0CHkQFjAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hrw.org%2Fnews%2F2002%2F02%2F25%2Fafghan-refugees-mistreated-exile-afraid-go-home&ei=yOciUffrH-n_yQHRnYCQBQ&usg=AFQjCNHPuSYBec6HWtOd3etpQAcRyj0jVg&sig2=0QI33tFyIGvvoDKKpA0NYw&bvm=bv.42553238,d.aWchttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&ved=0CD0QFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fsiteresources.worldbank.org%2FINTLAC%2FResources%2FFactbook2011-Ebook.pdf&ei=T-ciUf_dFoT4yQGWpYHoBA&usg=AFQjCNGzWXaLxrxk1S5OykndS_Sk8YPM2w&sig2=x8FEHFwUf27PJrDZSdnGLA&bvm=bv.42553238,d.aWchttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&ved=0CD0QFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fsiteresources.worldbank.org%2FINTLAC%2FResources%2FFactbook2011-Ebook.pdf&ei=T-ciUf_dFoT4yQGWpYHoBA&usg=AFQjCNGzWXaLxrxk1S5OykndS_Sk8YPM2w&sig2=x8FEHFwUf27PJrDZSdnGLA&bvm=bv.42553238,d.aWchttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&ved=0CD0QFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fsiteresources.worldbank.org%2FINTLAC%2FResources%2FFactbook2011-Ebook.pdf&ei=T-ciUf_dFoT4yQGWpYHoBA&usg=AFQjCNGzWXaLxrxk1S5OykndS_Sk8YPM2w&sig2=x8FEHFwUf27PJrDZSdnGLA&bvm=bv.42553238,d.aWchttp://tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/9184-civil-society-activists-fear-afghan-exodushttp://tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/9184-civil-society-activists-fear-afghan-exodushttp://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/AF/UNAMAMidYearReport2012.pdfhttp://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/AF/UNAMAMidYearReport2012.pdfhttp://afg.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/default/files/UNHCR%20IDP%20Report%202012.pdfhttp://afg.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/default/files/UNHCR%20IDP%20Report%202012.pdfhttp://afg.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/default/files/UNHCR%20IDP%20Report%202012.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://afg.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/default/files/UNHCR%20IDP%20Report%202012.pdfhttp://afg.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/default/files/UNHCR%20IDP%20Report%202012.pdfhttp://afg.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/default/files/UNHCR%20IDP%20Report%202012.pdfhttp://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/MHB%20August%202012.pdfhttp://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/MHB%20August%202012.pdfhttp://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/MHB%20August%202012.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTSOCIALDEVELOPMENT/Resources/244362-1265299949041/6766328-1265299960363/WB-UNHCR-IDP_Full-Report.pdfhttp://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTSOCIALDEVELOPMENT/Resources/244362-1265299949041/6766328-1265299960363/WB-UNHCR-IDP_Full-Report.pdfhttp://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/50000-afghan-refugees-voluntarily-return-afghanistan-yearhttp://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/50000-afghan-refugees-voluntarily-return-afghanistan-yearhttp://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/50000-afghan-refugees-voluntarily-return-afghanistan-yearhttp://www.unhcr.org/50ab463b6.htmlhttp://www.unhcr.org/50ab463b6.htmlhttp://www.unhcr.org/50ab463b6.htmlhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/50ab463b6.htmlhttp://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/50000-afghan-refugees-voluntarily-return-afghanistan-yearhttp://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTSOCIALDEVELOPMENT/Resources/244362-1265299949041/6766328-1265299960363/WB-UNHCR-IDP_Full-Report.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/MHB%20August%202012.pdfhttp://afg.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/default/files/UNHCR%20IDP%20Report%202012.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://afg.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/default/files/UNHCR%20IDP%20Report%202012.pdfhttp://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/AF/UNAMAMidYearReport2012.pdfhttp://tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/9184-civil-society-activists-fear-afghan-exodushttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&ved=0CD0QFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fsiteresources.worldbank.org%2FINTLAC%2FResources%2FFactbook2011-Ebook.pdf&ei=T-ciUf_dFoT4yQGWpYHoBA&usg=AFQjCNGzWXaLxrxk1S5OykndS_Sk8YPM2w&sig2=x8FEHFwUf27PJrDZSdnGLA&bvm=bv.42553238,d.aWchttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&cad=rja&ved=0CHkQFjAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hrw.org%2Fnews%2F2002%2F02%2F25%2Fafghan-refugees-mistreated-exile-afraid-go-home&ei=yOciUffrH-n_yQHRnYCQBQ&usg=AFQjCNHPuSYBec6HWtOd3etpQAcRyj0jVg&sig2=0QI33tFyIGvvoDKKpA0NYw&bvm=bv.42553238,d.aWc


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Furthermore, UNCHR says that, of the returnees, 40 per cent have not reintegrated into their homecommunities, but rather have chosen to settle innew locations, mainly large urban areas.

Figure 1. Returnees assisted by UNHCR

Source: Solutions Strategies for Afghan Refugees to Support Voluntary Repatriation, Sustainable Reintegration and Assistance to

Host Countries, UNHCR, May 2012.

An estimated 1.84 million returnees have failed to reintegrate, facing problems with access to land, shelter,services and livelihoods, writes UNHCR. Experience has shown that duration of displacement influences

successful reintegration. The majority of the Afghan refugees have been in exile for more than 25 years and

half of them have never lived in Afghanistan. For these groups, access to land and housing is particularly

difficult. An estimated 15 per cent of the population have become secondary migrants.

Figure 2. 2012 Returnees by Destination in Afghanistan

Source: UNHCR Afghanistan Update on Voluntary Repatriation and Border Monitoring, UNHCR, May 2012.

Characteristics of Displacement and Population Movement in Afghanistan

Pakistan isnot a signatoryto the 1951 Geneva Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and does not have

any other national refugee legal framework in place. The Tripartite Agreement between UNHCR and the

governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan protects Afghan refugees in Pakistan. The recent 31 December 2012

expiration deadline of the Proof of Registration cards was extended until 31 June 2013, reports The Pakistan

Tribune. The Afghan government and UNHCR expressed the need to extend theTripartite for three more years, a

decision which is on hold awaiting deliberations and inter-ministerial consultations within the Pakistani

government. However, further extensions of the Tripartite Agreement are unlikely as public statements by
http://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/4ac49fa39.htmlhttp://www.unhcr.org/4ac49fa39.htmlhttp://www.unhcr.org/4ac49fa39.htmlhttp://www.unhcr.org/50ab463b6.htmlhttp://www.unhcr.org/50ab463b6.htmlhttp://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/hrrpt/humanrightsreport/index.htm#wrapperhttp://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/hrrpt/humanrightsreport/index.htm#wrapperhttp://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/hrrpt/humanrightsreport/index.htm#wrapperhttp://tribune.com.pk/story/502665/refugee-repatriation-as-deadline-looms-refugees-literally-face-the-boot/http://tribune.com.pk/story/502665/refugee-repatriation-as-deadline-looms-refugees-literally-face-the-boot/http://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/afghanistan-pakistan-and-unhcr-discuss-voluntary-repatriation-afghan-refugeeshttp://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/afghanistan-pakistan-and-unhcr-discuss-voluntary-repatriation-afghan-refugeeshttp://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/afghanistan-pakistan-and-unhcr-discuss-voluntary-repatriation-afghan-refugeeshttp://www.irinnews.org/Report/95937/PAKISTAN-Pressure-mounts-on-Afghan-refugeeshttp://www.irinnews.org/Report/95937/PAKISTAN-Pressure-mounts-on-Afghan-refugeeshttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.irinnews.org/Report/95937/PAKISTAN-Pressure-mounts-on-Afghan-refugeeshttp://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/afghanistan-pakistan-and-unhcr-discuss-voluntary-repatriation-afghan-refugeeshttp://tribune.com.pk/story/502665/refugee-repatriation-as-deadline-looms-refugees-literally-face-the-boot/http://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/hrrpt/humanrightsreport/index.htm#wrapperhttp://www.unhcr.org/50ab463b6.htmlhttp://www.unhcr.org/4ac49fa39.htmlhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdf


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Source: adapted from Afghan Migration in Flux, STATT Synapse, Issue 10, January 2010.

Pakistani officials and pressures from Pakistani police over Afghan refugees have significantly increased during

the last two years, writes IRIN. Iran is signatory to the Geneva Convention on refugees; however the country

continues to deport undocumented Afghan migrants on the grounds that they areeconomic migrants. Meanwhile,

Iran provides assurances to UNHCR that they willcommit to asylum spaces.

In light of the complex situation affecting the region as a whole and the uncertainty and volatility of the

forthcoming transition process, the governments of Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan, with the support of UNHCR,

initiated a quadripartite consultative process in 2011. The backbone of the consultative process is the

implementation of the Solutions Strategy for Afghan Refugees (SSAR) to support voluntary repatriation,

sustainable reintegration and assistance to host countries. The multilateral SSAR framework seeks to sustain an

international focus on humanitarian issues during the upcoming transition in Afghanistan. The experience of the

quadripartite consultative process has led the three governments to agree to establish a Quadripartite Steering

Committee that will guide the overall implementation of the SSAR. This Committee will also coordinate follow-

up, mobilise resources, and manage the new multi-donor trust fund. The Steering Committee will meet

periodically to review and discuss implementation of the Strategy at the sub-regional level, and seek participation

as needed from relevant stakeholders, donors, and development and bilateral actors. The committee has not met

since meeting in Abu Dhabi on 31 January 2013. It is important to highlight that the SSAR may not have a

preventive or mitigating mechanism in place in case of a reverse scenario, e.g. a large scale influx of Afghan

refugees migrating to Iran and Pakistan in post-2014 due to the deterioration of the economic, political and

security environments in Afghanistan.

Displacement post-2014

Based on potential scenarios of political and economic turmoil within Afghanistan and its neighbouring countries,

STATT foresees thedisplacement flowsshown in Figure 3.

Figure 3. Potential Displacement Flows in Afghanistans Post 2014

AFGHANISTAN

Internal displacement is likely to be thebiggest reaction to economic and political

instability.

Movement by lower socioeconomichouseholds will be to more secure pockets

within the country.

Internal movements are likely to placestrain on urban employment markets

alongside the reduction of assistance. Most of the migration will be out of the

south and southeast due to greaterinstability.

IRAN

The deterioration of the Iranian economy,which will have severe effects on the

informal sector where Afghan labour is

prominent, will generate less interest on the

Afghans to migrate to Iran.

Pressure on immigrants and refugees byIranian authorities will restrict their

ambitions to medium-term or permanent

residency in Iran.

Under a stable scenario in Iran, Afghanmigrants will remain static in the medium

and long-term. In case the Iranian economyopens, it would attract large number of

Afghans.

If political and economic turmoil aggravatesin Iran, Afghan population would go back

temporarily to Afghanistan and a large

number of Afghan migrants could be pushed

towards Europe and Turkey.

PAKISTAN

Pakistan has become a less attractivedestination for medium and long-term

residency, even for Pashtuns, due to

economic and political deterioration.

Afghan refugees will rarely return toAfghanistan in large numbers. In fact, the

number of refugees heading to Pakistan will

increase, driven by tradition and seeking

safety.

Afghan new and already registered refugeesin Pakistan will move away from

borderlands to other parts of Pakistan, far

from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and theFederally Administered Tribal Areas.

70% of Afghan migrants in Pakistan haveborn and raised there, therefore, migrationback to Afghanistan is rather unlikely.

OVERSEAS

Over the next years, it expected a large number of Afghans lookingfor long-term residency in the Middle East, North America, Europe

and Oceania. They will be engaged in fraudulent family, marriage or

education arrangements and will work illegally.

Other Diasporas in East Asia and Africa will flourish. Afghans from the diaspora will rarely return to Afghanistan.

CENTRAL ASIA

Tajiks could use Tajikistan as a country of refuge in smallnumbers. Migration to Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan is

unlikely as barriers to immigration there are strong.

Central Asia could be used as a transit space to migrateeither to Europe or Russia.
http://www.statt.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/STATT-Synapse-Issue-10-Afghan-Migration-in-Flux.pdfhttp://www.statt.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/STATT-Synapse-Issue-10-Afghan-Migration-in-Flux.pdfhttp://www.statt.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/STATT-Synapse-Issue-10-Afghan-Migration-in-Flux.pdfhttps://webmail.cimicweb.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=2S1HX6pmxUy8uTsS_CLOB_zgvQxm-M9IlUhQhxfByJcXi8hw4KMp6-c1ADD5iwpWHLVr8XRsZxI.&URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.state.gov%2fdocuments%2forganization%2f186669.pdfhttps://webmail.cimicweb.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=2S1HX6pmxUy8uTsS_CLOB_zgvQxm-M9IlUhQhxfByJcXi8hw4KMp6-c1ADD5iwpWHLVr8XRsZxI.&URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.state.gov%2fdocuments%2forganization%2f186669.pdfhttps://webmail.cimicweb.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=2S1HX6pmxUy8uTsS_CLOB_zgvQxm-M9IlUhQhxfByJcXi8hw4KMp6-c1ADD5iwpWHLVr8XRsZxI.&URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.state.gov%2fdocuments%2forganization%2f186669.pdfhttp://reliefweb.int/report/iran-islamic-republic/unhcr-chief-welcomes-iran-commitment-maintain-asylum-spacehttp://reliefweb.int/report/iran-islamic-republic/unhcr-chief-welcomes-iran-commitment-maintain-asylum-spacehttp://reliefweb.int/report/iran-islamic-republic/unhcr-chief-welcomes-iran-commitment-maintain-asylum-spacehttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://unhcr.org.ir/en/news/Article.php&id=1345&d=2013.01http://unhcr.org.ir/en/news/Article.php&id=1345&d=2013.01http://www.statt.net/2013/01/afghan-migration-in-flux/#more-2719http://www.statt.net/2013/01/afghan-migration-in-flux/#more-2719http://www.statt.net/2013/01/afghan-migration-in-flux/#more-2719http://www.statt.net/2013/01/afghan-migration-in-flux/#more-2719http://unhcr.org.ir/en/news/Article.php&id=1345&d=2013.01http://www.unhcr.org/afghanistan/solutions-strategy.pdfhttp://reliefweb.int/report/iran-islamic-republic/unhcr-chief-welcomes-iran-commitment-maintain-asylum-spacehttps://webmail.cimicweb.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=2S1HX6pmxUy8uTsS_CLOB_zgvQxm-M9IlUhQhxfByJcXi8hw4KMp6-c1ADD5iwpWHLVr8XRsZxI.&URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.state.gov%2fdocuments%2forganization%2f186669.pdfhttp://www.statt.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/STATT-Synapse-Issue-10-Afghan-Migration-in-Flux.pdf


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March 2013 Page 5

Conclusion

Historically, Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan have been countries of displacement; all three have been the source

and host for refugees and IDPs. During the last decade, displacement in the region has escalated with 5.7 million

refugees returning to Afghanistan while conflict has driven thousands of IDPs from their homes. These

displacement flows pose challenges for the Afghanistan government and the international and humanitarian

agencies providing assistance to refugees and IDPs. As coalition forces withdraw and international aid starts

drying up, Afghanistan and its neighbours will be tested in their capacity to handle displacement in the coming

years. Depending on Afghanistans progress toward stabilisation and the unfolding of political and economic

dynamics in Pakistan and Iran, the region could experience significant displacement flows in both directions

(from/to Afghanistan and to/from neighbouring countries). Of particular concern is the potential revocation of

refugee cards in Pakistan and Iran, which could spawn large amounts of returnees in the short-term into

Afghanistan thereby, straining the absorption capacity and resources of the government and international agencies.