cfa institute · 2018. 3. 27. · the cfa institute research challenge is a global competition that...

CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Emirates

University of Sharjah

CFA Institute

The CFA Institute Research Challenge is a global competition that tests the equity research and valuation, investment report writing, and presentation skills of university students. The following report was submitted by a team of university students as part of this annual educational initiative and should not be considered a professional report.

Disclosures:Ownership and material conflicts of interest The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report does not hold a financial interest in the securities of this company. The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report does not know of the existence of any conflicts of interest that might bias the content or publication of this report.Receipt of compensationCompensation of the author(s) of this report is not based on investment banking revenue.Position as an officer or a directorThe author(s), or a member of their household, does not serve as an officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject company.Market making The author(s) does not act as a market maker in the subject company’s securities.Disclaimer The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources generally available to the public and believed by the author(s) to be reliable, but the author(s) does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. The information is not intended to be used as the basis of any investment decisions by any person or entity. This information does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. This report should not be considered to be a recommendation by any individual affiliated with CFA Society Emirates, CFA Institute, or the CFA Institute Research Challenge with regard to this company’s stock.

Basic Information RAK Ceramics (RAKCEC), is one of the largest ceramics brands around the world, which specializes in ceramic and gres porcelain wall floor and tiles, tableware, sanitary ware and faucets. RAK Ceramics was founded in 1989, and is operating in more than 150 countries in the Middle East, Europe, North Africa, and Asia, North and South America, and Australia. The company is listed publically in two stock markets, Abu Dhabi Stock market (ADX), and in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) in Bangladesh, and as a group it has a turnover of approximately 3.67 billion AED. The major shareholders of RAK Ceramics are Samina Capital owning 31.5%, Al Rajhi Holding Company owning more that 7%, and other retail investors owning more than 32%, and his Highness Sheikh Saud Al Qasimi owning 5.3%, and RAK royal family members.

Cost effective Management and Future Plans In the recent years, the company has been following a new cost effective strategy focusing on core business activities including the production of tiles, sanitary wares, table ware and faucets. RAK Ceramics has been cutting-out many of its noncore activities such as real estate, warehousing, and construction. The company is planning to double its production in India by opening another plant there to boost their production of core products in the Indian market with the goal of being number one Ceramics producer in India. The company has also closed two of its plants in Sudan and China respectively in order to save costs and to be more focused on their successful markets. Cost Effective Management strategy has helped RAK Ceramics to increase its gross profit, revenues, EBITDA, ROE, and net profit in 2017 and it is expected to grow more in the upcoming years.

Investment Summary We Issue a HOLD recommendation on RAK Ceramics (RAKCEC) with a target price of 3.13 AED representing an 11.8% upside from the closing price of 2.80 AED per share of January 9th, 2018. Our target price is based on a mix of the Discounted Cash Flow to Equity Model and EV/EBITDAR multiples, attributing 30% and 70% weights respectively to each method. Key drivers for our recommendation: Efficient Cost Management: Ever since Samina Capital became a main shareholder in the company, management has been implementing a cost effective strategy which has focused on core business activities. The company has also been succeeding at reducing raw material costs which is expected to lead to increased profits as their prices can become more competitive and attractive to customers in the industry. Exit from Non-Core Operations: The company’s shift in strategy in exiting core operations suggests positive prospects as this could lead to improved results in various areas of the firm. The redirected focus on core operations may lead to increased innovation in new products and improved performance in product lines and production processes. Additionally, by paying more attention to the main operations of the firm, management can redirect their efforts to reducing any existing inefficiencies in those areas in order to enhance performance. Financials: As per our forecasts revenues are expected to increase for the following year and then remain at a steady level with minor fluctuations, which supports our recommendation to HOLD. Additionally, according to IMF’s GDP forecasts the Middle East’s GDP is expected to increase from 1.3 to 3 over the next five years which is a positive indicator for the company as it has a large portion of market share in that region. Moreover, the company’s decrease in debt ratio over the next years is a positive indicator as the company moves away from excessive leverage. The company is also expected to increase dividends which is a good reason to HOLD.

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5%

5%9%

10%

71%

UAE (82m Sqm)Bangladesh (11.6m Sqm)India (11m Sqm)Iran (6m Sqm)China (5.5m Sqm)

Figure 5

Source: Company Website

UAE

Shareholder’s Name %Shares

Samena Co 19.06

Salem LTD 10.28

Government of RAS Al Khaimah 9.13

Al Qasimi Mohammed Ahmed 6.42

Limestone LLC 6.41

FAB investment LLC 6.12

Others 6.69

Number of Shares Available for Public 64.11

Ownership Type % Shares

Other 34.50

Holdling Company 29.67

Government 14.22

Individual 10

Unclassified 9.98

Investement Advisor 1.55

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4




Share’s Distribution

Figure 1


00.51

1.52

2.53

3.54

4.52/8

/15

4/8/15

6/8

/15

8/8/15

10

/8/15

12

/8/15

2/8

/16

4/8/16

6/8

/16

8/8/16

10

/8/16

12

/8/16

2/8

/17

4/8/17

6/8

/17

8/8/17

10

/8/17

12

/8/17

RAKStockPrice

Valuation Date Jan 9th 2018 Recommendation Hold Stock Exchange ADX

Current Price AED2.8 Target Price AED3.13 Sector Industrials

Ticker RAKCEC Upside 11.80% Industry Manufacturing

Business Description Being in a unique strategic geographical location that is seen to be a linkage point between Middle East, Africa, and Europe, RAK Ceramics took the ultimate advantage of this geographical perk and seized it by exporting 70% of the produced products to more than 150 countries in the world.This exporting strategy allowed RAK not only to hedge the financial and economical instability in the Middle East, but also the Real Estate industry collapse in the GCC countries and acquire a Revenue growth unmatchable to other major companies within the same industry. (Figure 4)

RAK Tiles The company boasts of more than 6000 models of a different ceramic wall and floor tiles, Gres porcelain, and super-sized slabs. There are total 15 tile plants with 10 situated at UAE, two at India and one plant in Bangladesh, China, and Iran. 71 percent of total tile production takes place at UAE followed by 11 percent at Bangladesh. 9 percent production capacity occurs at Indian plants while both China and Iran contributes 5 percent of production (Figure 5). The company has achieved a number of product certifications to highlight its superior quality and conformation to regulatory laws. These certifications are:

• China Compulsory Product Certification, CCC • Certification of Scientific and Technical Center for Building, CSTB • FloorScore (Indoor Air Quality) • Saudi Standards, Metrology and Quality Org, SASO • Scientific and Industrial Research Institute of Malaysia, SIRIM QAS

RAK Sanitary Wares The company provides diverse bathroom products and fittings to cater to all economic strata and varied preferences. The product range includes accessories and bathroom furniture. Four Sanitaryware plants are there with two in UAE and one each at India and Bangladesh. 59 percent of sanitary ware production occurs at UAE followed by 29 percent at Bangladesh and least capacity of 12 percent at Indian plants. Various quality measures are associated with RAK sanitary wares with certifications from numerous trusted sources. The company managed to safeguard its world’s 4th largest tile producing position in 2016 (Figure 6).

RAK Tableware Around 20,000 hospitality organizations across the 140 countries use the RAK Ceramics tableware with renowned client lists including the famous JW Marriot, Hilton, Sheraton and Hyatt to name a few. Around 24 million pieces are produced annually, all of which are produced in UAE plant.

RAK Faucets Environmental friendly water fittings and faucets provide up to 60 percent water savings when usual consumption pattern is considered, making RAK faucets and fittings the best choice for water saving options. There is only one plant at UAE with 100 percent global production capacity

Expenses Breakdown Being a ceramic production generally, and one of the most productive ceramic producing companies specifically, RAK Ceramic’s expenses are considered high in amount and wide in categories. The expenses are under 4 main categories, which are cost of sale, Selling and Distribution, Administrative and General Expenses, and Finance Costs.

Cost of Sale Breaking down the expenses that alines with the production and construction process which is the cost of sale through the past few years, Raw Materials consumes more than 40 percent of the cost of sale, and this percentage is justified and reasonable for a company that produces Ceramics and other products from Raw Material. Workers and human labor expenses that converts

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12%

29%59%

UAEBangladeshIndian

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8

RAK Ceramic’s Revenue

090

0000

1800

000

2700

000

3600

000

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

E20

18F20

19F20

20F20

21F20

22F





Source: Bloomberg and Team Analysis

Figure 10

Figure 9

-10,000

10,000

30,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

9m17 2016 2015 2014

SellingandDistributionCosts

StaffCost FreightandTransportation PerformanceRebates Others

-

200,000.00

400,000.00

600,000.00

800,000.00

1,000,000.00

9m17 2016 2015 2014

CostofSale

RawMaterial DirectLabor LPGandNaturalGas PowerandFuel Others

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

9m17 2016 2015 2014

FinanceCost

InterestonBankLoans OtherCosts

the raw material into a product consumes and makes between 12 and 15 percent of the Cost of sale’s expenses. Liquefied Petroleum Gas, Natural Gases, Fuel and power used by machines, heating systems, and other machinery devices depreciates between 19.5 and 21 percent.Other expenses which varies between 17.5% and 26.6% contains costs like repair and maintenance, subcontractor’s fees, packing material expenses, and others. (Figure 7)

Selling and Distribution Costs RAK Ceramics nature of work and the service and products it provides makes the staff cost the highest expense in terms of selling and distributing, and the percentage varies between around 20% and 32%. The change in the percentage imply that more personnel have been hired since 2014 which implies that increasing work load required the employment of more staff. Freight and transportation is an integral part expenses for the majority of production companies, the transportation process is usually among countries and in other cases between continents, and for RAK Ceramics, transportation expenses shapes approximately between 28 and 38 percent of the selling and distribution expenses. Other expenses contains rental expenses, promotions, travel expenses and others, and these expenses makes 22percent on average of the total selling and distribution costs from the pas 4 years. (Figure 8).

Administrative and General Expenses Administrative expenses are related to the administration personnel, and the staff cost implies the importance of their role by the wages paid for them which varies between 38 and 49 percent of the total administrative and general expenses. Depreciation on plant, property, and equipment reached to the peak in 2015, which consumed 10% and decreased significantly in the following years, and became part of the other expenses.The same thing implied on loss on receivables that was an integral part of the general expenses in 2014 then decreased greatly and became part of other expenses. Other expenses are quite high, which is reasonable for the numerous categories that lies underneath, like legal fees, insurance, licenses, IT expenses and others. (Appendix 8)

Finance Costs The integral part and core section of the finance cost lies under the interest paid on loans taken from banks, which formed 65% of the finance costs during 2014, and 43.3% in 2016. The other costs include banks charges, loss on foreign exchange, and profit expense on islamic financing. The aforementioned payments configures at least 40% and maximum of 66% the past 4 years. (Figure 9)

Corporate Governance Shareholders Structure Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics PJSC (RAK Ceramics) consists of class A share with approximately 858.4 million shares outstanding. 81.2% of these shares are floating. In a 2016 Corporate Governance report, the top shareholder of RAK Ceramics is the Samena Limestone Co. owning 19.06% of the company. The second top shareholder is Limestone L.L.C owning 6.4%. The other shareholders own the rest of the shares which include individuals and institutions. It worths mentioning that according to the CFO, Samena Capital has acquired 31% of RAK’s Ceramics shares from H.H Sheikh Saud, the ruler of Ras Al Khaimah, and to this date, it has become the largest shareholder of RAK Ceramics. Moreover, the company has a holding named RAK Ceramics Bangladesh Ltd (RAKC) in which its valuation is valued at 179.9 million USD.

Corporate Governance Currently, the board of directors consists of 7 members; the Chairman (Non-Executive, Independent), 3 Non-Executive and Independent Directors, and 3 Executive Directors, in which the majority of the directors have met the asked requirements by SCA that concerns about Corporate Governance Rules and Corporate Governance Discipline Standards. The members were elected during the AGM held on 26 of April 2016 for a period of 3 years, but there is one member who has been in the board since 21 years; Sheikh Ahmed Bin Humaid Al Qasimi. The company consists of 4 committees, Nomination and Remuneration

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Revenue By Geography

10%

12%

22%56%

MEAsiaEuroRest of the World

Current Ratio

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

RAK Ceramics

! 1.34 1.86 1.62 1.97 1.82

Union ! 1.06 0.94 1.46 1.82 1.94

Saudi Ceramics

" 1.45 1.15 1.56 2.04 1.56

Fu Wang # 0.74 0.82 0.88 0.95 0.97

Villaroy and Boch

$ 1.87 1.67 1.59 1.85 1.96

Kajaria % 0.8 0.81 0.94 1.02 1.22

Figure 11

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 12


Figure 13


Figure 14

Positioning of GCC countries according to wage bill and projected change in non-oil primary balance 2015-2020

Country Risk Premium

UAE 8.80%

Saudi Arabia 7.28%

Bangladesh 9.24%

Committee, Executive Committee, Audit Committee & its Expert, and Insider Trading Committee.

Corporate Management Mr. Abdallah Massaad is the CEO of RAK Ceramics since June 2014, he has 21 years of experience in multiple fields such as ceramics manufacturing, management of sales, marketing products, and business leadership. He was invited as a marketing consultant for the company in 2004, and since 2006 he has formally joined as a Deputy CEO. In 2015, Mr. Massaad won multiple prestigious awards, the “International Business Stevie® Award for ‘Executive of the Year (Manufacturing)’, and ‘Industry CEO of the Year’ at the CEO Middle East Annual Awards 2015.” In the past, before joining RAK Ceramics, he was the General Manager of International Ceramics Company SARL (ICC) Lebanon. The CFO of RAK Ceramics is Mr. Pramod Kumar Chand who has joint RAK since June 2012. He has an extensive knowledge in the field of corporate finance, and that includes “treasury and working capital financing, project finance, venture capital, debt & equity capital market instruments, fundraising processes and general management”. He is also a member of the “Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (CA) and has been a rank holder and winner of the A. F. Ferguson award.” In summary, the company has been an excellent CFO with a high level of experienced executive since they have shown a solid background in the industry and working for the benefit of the company.

Sustainability and Social Responsibility RAK Ceramics considers sustainability as a core business element and has a clear obligation towards three important factors society, economy, and the environment. The company is one of the founding members of Emirates Green Building Council, that aids the growth of sustainable constructions in the UAE. The company has signed an agreement with the Environment Protection and Development Authority for to co-operate in defending and preserving the environment. Its activities involved in improving the energy efficiency, pollution reduction, enhancing the ecosystem and boosting the value of life for both the individuals in the communities it operates, and for its personnel. To add, the sanitary ware division in the company is committed in developing eco-friendly goods. In the end, the company is dedicated to protecting the environment, building a sustainable society, and to encourage novelty, originality, and innovative ideas through their CSR and sponsorship programs.

Industry Outline and Competitive Positioning Overview One may imagine that in the period of firm statistics and correspondence innovation development concludes the idea that the mechanical manufacturing transformation industry is simply a prior phase, a period when the manufacturing part had its most glowing days. Lately, the UAE’s Ministry of Economy reported that the nation hopes to expand the GDP growth of the assembling area from the present 11% to 20% by 2021 and 25% by 2025. It additionally plans to enhance its positioning in the worldwide manufacturing industry lists. With the nation's exceedingly effective exchange, transport and coordination center point and various free zone offices, the potential for manufacturing is enormous. The Central Bank of the UAE Governor Mubarak Rashid Al Mansouri said that the UAE’s non-oil division economy is relied upon to grow 3.1% this year and quicken to 3.5% in 2018.

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Figure 15

Figure 8

Source: World Bank and Team Analysis

Source; IMF

Free Cash Flow to Equity-1

250

125

250

375

500

2012

2014

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2018

2020

2022

2023

Free Cash Flow

-125

012

525

037

550

020

12

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2023

Figure 18

Figure 16

Source: IMF

Figure 17

Source: World Bank and Team Analysis

As Arabian Gulf countries walk inflexibly forward towards monetary development, the manufacturing division is accepting specific consideration. The area has a solid convention in high-tech industries. What's more, as oil costs stay beneath original financial investment levels; governments are sustaining these capacities through long-term development duties. For local makers, the way is clear. The GCC nations are quick in communicating with the world through a solid financial union, as this will fortify the position of the GCC worldwide and will empower individuals to take an interest in basic leadership on the worldwide financial guide. (Figures 17 and 18)

Drivers Shaping the Manufacturing Industry Consumer/Customer-Centric Focus - Supply chains are substantially more mindful of the consumer and client compared to any other time. RAK ceramics always look to understand their customers, design and study their experience and request feedbacks continuously. Demand Awareness - While there has been a decade run talk on the relative benefits of being "demand-driven" there is little inquiry that inventory network associations can profit by more noteworthy visibility into the pace of demand. While a few organizations will never utilize request signs to advise production line run techniques, the capacity to enhance oversee service performance and late phase assembly through improved knowledge into demand outlines and more exact inventory network estimates are clear. RAK ceramics took care of their working capital management in realizing demand awareness by initiating production changes that match the selected inventory and demand. Versatility - It is progressively basic for manufacturing supply chains that work in an environment portrayed by unpredictable request and complex supply to be able to react rapidly to unanticipated occasions. RAK ceramics serve clients in more than 160 countries through their operational networks in North/South America, North Africa, Middle East, Europe and Australia. RAK ceramics are known for their wide item extension and their capacity to deliver bespoke extents for both little and large-scale projects, empowering their customer’s thoughts and desires. Data-Driven - The requirement for store network associations to expand their knowledge is vital, as it is progressively inadmissible to "not know," especially when shoppers are more enabled with universal visibility. RAK ceramics are mostly driven by data that is collected and referred to advanced accurate IT technology in order to make their effective decisions. Ex: In 2016 RAK ceramics designed the 2016 IT strategy to support their value creation plan and their roadmap. Always On - Always on is a driver that explains the fact of always being connected to your customers through the internet and providing all related information about the company. RAK ceramic’s website is always available and continuously updated with new information on a daily basis. Also, their day always starts with reports and contacting the distributors, meeting all their clients in their offices in the most suitable time and even visiting their distributors. Digital Execution and Update - In the case of embracing present day archive administration procedures and innovation, every organization needs to be updated with the newest technology and appropriate knowledge to know how to reach their customers in an appropriate beneficial way. Ex: RAK ceramics won multiple international Stevie awards in 2015. Silver awards for most innovative company and a bronze award for “health, safety, environment program of the year”. And they only won these awards because of their utilization of wide range technologies at the state-of-art plants including digital printing, roll feed, anti-microbial developments, and many other advanced technologies.

Regulations Manufacturing consistency includes the specialized, legitimate and corporate prerequisites, controls and practices makers must agree with a specific end goal to deliver and advertise items. The danger of resistance has turned into an undeniably significant worry as of lately, especially for manufacturers with operations in various nations and regions.

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Relative ValuationAmount in

million AED

EV/EBITIDA 6.54

Projected EBITIDA 2018 659

Enterprise Value 4306

Total Debt 2263

Cash &Cash Equivalents 345

Market Cap 2388

Outstanding Shares 858

Price Relative Valuation 2.78

Weight of relative Valuation 70%

FCFE ValuationAmount in

Million AED

PV FCFE 1352.1

Terminal Value 2035.3

Equity Value 3387.4

Current Oustanding Shares 858.4

Price FCFE Valuation 3.95

Weight FCFE Valuation 30%

Cost of Equity

Risk Free Rate 2.617%

BETA 0.6727

Market Risk Premium 6.88%

CAPM 7.25%

UAE Country Risk Premium 8.8%

Adjusted CAPM 16.04%


Figure 21



Figure 20

Target Price 3.13

Figure 19

Valuation Our valuation arrives at target price of 3.13 driven by 30% of our FCFE model price of 3.95 and 70% EV/EBITDA multiple analysis price of 2.78. The assigned 70% was based on the fact that FCFE model has a huge impact on the terminal value. We think that it is more accurate to give the more weight to the relative valuation because of the availability of competitors in the market allowing us to build more deep analysis. Moreover, the availability of competitors allowed us to work on the changes in business cycle. (Figure 18 and 19)

Essential Valuation of The Free Cash Flow to Equity FCFE We have selected this model to forecast its future free cash flow and free cash flow to equity in order to determine the target price for RAK Ceramics. And based on the forecast that we have made to both FCF and FCFE they have shown us that both are growing at a rate of 4.8%, and this value has been calculated using the GDP of the countries the company is currently operating. It is also worth mentioning that we have made the forecast for both FCF and FCFE till the year 2023. Therefore, based on our calculations and analysis for the FCFE Valuation, we have come up with an estimated price at 3.95. (Figure 19) Cost of Equity was deduced using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) method. The CAPM value (7.25%) was then adjusted by adding the country risk premium of the UAE (8.80%). Risk free rate value was sourced from Bloomberg (2.617%). Beta (0.6727) was computed using a regression analysis model for 4 years starting from the beginning of 2014 till the end of 2017, weekly Stock prices for both RAK and ADX index were taken into account therefore leading us to calculate beta afterwards by using the regression analysis model. (Figure 20)

Terminal Growth Value We have forecasted the GDP values of multiple countries till the year 2023, the company is currently operating in multiple countries. We have obtained an average GDP growth rate to the year 2023 of 4.8%, this is because based on our projections we believe that these countries will grow overtime which will then affect the company.

Peer Review This peer review compares RAK Ceramics with competitors in five countries where it functions. It compares major ceramic producing companies with a comparable size higher and lower than that of Ceramics in terms of market capitalization rate.We focused our comparison on the various financial ratios starting with liquidity ratio and ending with Debt ratio. We based our Financial Ratio comparison on a single ratio from each Financial category in order to have a closer insight about the RAK Ceramics performance and results being compared to other companies. Regarding the Liquidity Ratio, Operating Cash Flow for RAK ceramics had the third highest OPCF between all the other competitors. Over the years, RAK Ceramic’s operating cash flow was not steadily moving in any direction. But instead, it had a slight volatility of values from year 2014 to 2017. This means that the general business activity for RAK ceramics was not consistent over the years. The Market Ratio indicates that the amount of dividend per share RAK distributes has decreased compared to what it used to distribute in the previous years, while compared to competitors, it seems to be in a steady position. The Profitability Ratio, ROA signifies huge dip downwards in the year 2016. This was because of decreased sales in India and Saudi Arabia. The decrease in Saudi replicates the noteworthy failure in government project spending and business sentiment. Lower sales in India reflect the company’s initial stages in the course of rebuilding its senior management team and the impact of demonetization on the economy in the fourth quarter of 2016. The Asset Turnover implies that RAK is having a drawback in terms of activity, the decline signifies an issue either in the production or the management of assets. This decline is relative to previous years, despite the fact that compared to competitors in its region, RAK has higher Asset Turnover. A high debt ratio means a higher interest on the debt taken, higher risk, and limited sources of borrowing

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Figure LK

ROE Comparison

-0.2

3.1

6.4

9.7

1320

12

2013

2014

2015

2016

RAK ADX Ind Avg

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 22

Operating Margin Comparison

4.5

67.

59

10.5

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Operating Margin ADX index

Price / EPS Comparison

013

.75

27.5

41.2

555

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Price/EPS Adx index

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 23

Figure 24

Source: Bloomberg

opportunities, and these can summarize RAK’s debt ratio. The debt ratio is increasing for the past couple of years, and they tend to have higher debt compared to their competitors, which simplifies that revenues generated from assets are not enough to pay off expenses. (Appendix 6)

Financial Analysis Revenue As of the annual report of 2016, RAK Ceramics PJSC has 18 subsidiaries, a number of which have additional subsidiaries. Moreover, RAK Ceramics PJSC and its subsidiaries have joint control over several other entities. The company’s revenue growth rates seem to have been turbulent over the past few years. Additionally, revenue growth rates do not seem to show much of a pattern in corresponding with the UAE’s GDP growth changes except in 2012 where a significant high revenue growth rate is seen matching with a high UAE GDP growth rate for that year. Following strong growth rates in previous years, a steep decline was seen as of 2009, as a repercussion of the financial crisis. Revenue growth rates appear to still be struggling with lower growth rates seen every year since 2013. 2016 was a particularly tough year for the company’s revenue growth, with the KSA and India being significant contributors to the falling percentages. The former was affected by slower momentum due to weaker liquidity in the construction sector and simultaneous cutbacks on project spending plans, while the latter was impacted by weaker sales performance and volume.

In 2017 revenue growth seemed to be on a rebound with a growth rate of 17.49% from 2016 as RAK Ceramics appears to have succeeded in its plan to revive

revenue growth, with higher revenues being achieved relative to 2016 and the previous five years. This appears to be due to cutting back investments on non-core and non-performing business operations and redirecting investments towards core business growth. These factors altogether have resulted in encouraging outcomes on revenue growth.

Key Financials The EBITDA margin was on a general decline over the previous five years, with an average of 19.4%. According to our expectations, the company is expected to have achieved an EBITDA margin of 18% for the year-end of 2017 and EBITDA is forecasted to increase to around 20% in the next 5 years which is not a substantial increase. As per the company’s 2017 Q3 results tile margins are higher than they have been in 3 years at 28.4%, which may be explained by increased product offerings as well as lower input costs. The company also achieved an EBITDA margin of 21.1% as of Q3 of 2017, which is the highest in 5 years. A similar trend is seen in the operating income margin with a small increase to be seen in coming years. The company’s return on assets (ROA) is on an increase after a fall in 2016 and it is forecasted to be on increase until 2019 before it declines again. As for revenue growth revenue seems to be on a mostly steady but insubstantial increase following 2017. The debt ratio appears to be on a decline up to 2019 with a subsequent increase seen for the years after. (Appendix 4)

Cash Generation The company seems to have a model that generates cash soundly, as average collection period has been 106 days on average in the previous 5 years and days payables outstanding have been 271 days on average in the previous five years (Appendix 3). The gap between the two enables the availability of cash within

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Revenue Growth

2016 - 2017 2015 - 2016 2014 - 2015 2013 - 2014 2012 - 2013 2011 - 2012 2010 - 2011

17.49% -9.99% -7.74% -4.30% 10.97% -5.19% 0.43%

Source: Company and Team Analysis

Figure 25

the firm. However, the company seems to use it less on short-term investments and more on inventory and investment properties.

Capital Expenditure The company’s main area of capital expenditure is plant and machinery, which reflects the vast number of plants and the large volume of production that the company undertakes. Additionally, a large amount goes towards investment properties.

Capital Structure The company’s average debt-to-capital ratio for 2017 and the previous 5 years is not too high at 1.19, but our Altman Z-Score analysis (Appendix 7) indicates that the company does not seem to be doing well in terms of leverage as the average score for the previous 5 years is 1.79 which is below 1.81. This is negative considering the weight the Z-Score has with investors in deciding whether to purchase stock.

Investment Risks Business and Operational Risks BOPR 1: Capacity expansion plans and already existing land in India. (Impact: Medium/Probability: High) In a report issued by Reuters, the company plans to double the production capacity in 2018 by building a third plant in India. The company’s is to increase the growth of the company, standing out in the competition, and increase their market share. Mitigation: Because operating expenses, revenue, and staffing will grow, the company needs to make sure they have fully insured themselves, and so they need to meet with their insurance brokers regularly to make sure that they fully backed-up. Although it is very exciting to expand, it is important to note that the company must not neglect other customers and give them the feeling that they are ignored, therefore the company must dedicate teams and employees to focus on not just expansion but maintaining the business as a whole in order to fully grow.

BOPR 2: Sanctions (Impact: High/ Probability: Medium) Since there has been a severe aggression between the US and Iran, RAK may suffer major consequences cause of these imposed sanctions as it can hinder the profitability of the company. If these sanctions continue the unit in Iran will suffer considerably in terms of profitability and may shut down because they are having difficulties in keeping up with the supply and demand. Mitigation: Keeping a close eye and monitor the situation as the company may need to close it down and liquidate its assets in Iran as soon as possible as a way to reduce their losses.

BOPR 3: Competition and low-cost products (Impact: Medium/Probability: Medium).

Since RAK Ceramics is competing locally and globally to be one of the best ceramic companies to provide the best quality products, it will be under the watchful eye of many competitors. Companies are competing to deliver their products to the clients at a low cost, it is possible that they get their raw materials for manufacturing at a very low cost which gives them an advantage over RAK in terms of pricing its products. Mitigation: The management should set up a team from each department, they can also hire external experts like suppliers, gather data and do market research on what are the competitors currently doing and how do they stand out. To add, the company should invest more in research and development activities to keep track of the market trend. Doing so, will help the company to topple the competition in their favor.

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Financial Risks FR: Currency Risk (Impact: Low/Probability: Low) Since the company’s major exports are mainly to European countries and they also import a lot of raw materials. They are exposed to this kind of risk as unexpected gains or losses may occur because of the economic and political events that are occurring nowadays. For example, the day when the UK left the EU, the Brexit event that have occurred in 2016, may have a toll not just the EU but also the US. The EU may suffer and collapse, or it may profit from this situation in the future. Mitigation: RAK Ceramics can hedge the risk by engaging in multiple forward and future currency contracts, another alternative is the exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Also, actively managing liquidity, reducing operating costs, and improving their performance can help in reducing this risk.

Market Risk MR: Increasing costs of raw materials (Impact: High/Probability: High) Based on our analysis, the cost of raw materials, direct labor, etc.. from the year 2014 to 2016 has been increasing, add to that the operation, administrative, and finance expenses have been increasing over the years and we believe that these expenses will grow in the future. Mitigation: The company may need to cut down costs by increasing the price for selling its products, reduce the number of staff members, they may also need to look for other suppliers to get their materials at a lower cost.

�9

Low

Prob

ability

RiskMatrix

Medium High

Impact

Low

Med

ium

High

Financial Risk1

BOPR 1

BOPR3 BOPR2

MarketRisk1

Source: Company and Team Analysis

Figure 26

�10

Balance Sheet

Consolidated data 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F

Assets

Cash & Cash Equivalents 494,757 499,518 448,346 363,470 424,460 217,559 308,580 387,103 466,020 539,114 612,107

Net Accounts Receivable 936,380 891,849 916,515 911,630 838,323 951,577 937,697 944,184 945,687 949,551 947,842

Net Stated Inventory 1,034,814 1,115,693 1,139,391 1,141,156 1,179,320 1,169,856 1,152,792 1,160,767 1,162,615 1,167,365 1,165,263

Other Current Assets 943,859 1,288,108 906,580 834,928 614,905 768,763 757,549 762,790 764,004 767,125 765,744

Net Property, Plant & Equipment

1,039,267 1,168,980 1,247,957 1,247,801 1,226,534 1,303,554 1,284,539 1,293,426 1,295,485 1,300,778 1,298,436

Intangible Fixed Assets 57,433 70,815 69,747 68,388 90,112 63,278 62,355 62,787 62,887 63,144 63,030

Other Fixed Assets 805,487 644,333 1,271,339 1,414,402 1,382,600 1,336,978 1,317,476 1,326,591 1,328,703 1,334,131 1,331,729

Total Assets 5,311,997 5,679,296 5,999,875 5,981,775 5,756,254 5,811,566 5,820,989 5,937,648 6,025,400 6,121,207 6,184,152

Liabilities

Loans 1,531,364 909,342 801,409 323,186 305,695 701,914 691,675 696,460 697,569 700,419 699,158

Creditors 595,693 656,732 439,577 427,512 342,954 558,235 550,092 553,898 554,780 557,046 556,044

Other Current Liabilities 415,037 473,617 866,069 897,311 1,029,688 711,941 701,556 706,410 707,534 710,425 709,146

Long Term Debt 437,026 914,791 770,388 1,309,706 1,307,929 1,203,281 1,185,729 1,193,932 1,195,832 1,200,718 1,198,556

Other Non Current Liabilities

222,730 85,379 87,619 86,608 89,908 136,011 134,027 134,954 135,169 135,721 135,477

Total Liabilities 3,201,850 3,039,861 2,965,062 3,044,323 3,076,174 3,311,381 3,263,079 3,285,654 3,290,884 3,304,329 3,298,381

Equity

Capital 743,202 743,202 817,522 817,522 858,398 810,810 798,983 804,511 805,791 809,084 807,627

Retained Earnings 1,138,339 1,345,699 1,394,015 1,307,371 990,262 1,059,657 1,138,395 1,222,659 1,302,906 1,379,419 1,450,900

Other Shareholder Funds 228,606 550,534 823,276 812,559 831,420 629,717 620,531 624,824 625,819 628,376 627,245

Total Equity 2,110,147 2,639,435 3,034,813 2,937,452 2,680,080 2,500,185 2,557,910 2,651,994 2,734,516 2,816,878 2,885,771

AppendixAppendix 1

�11

Common-Size Balance Sheet


Assets

Cash & Cash Equivalents 9.3% 8.8% 7.5% 6.1% 7.4% 3.7% 5.3% 6.5% 7.7% 8.8% 9.9%

Net Accounts Receivable 17.6% 15.7% 15.3% 15.2% 14.6% 16.4% 16.1% 15.9% 15.7% 15.5% 15.3%

Net Stated Inventory 19.5% 19.6% 19.0% 19.1% 20.5% 20.1% 19.8% 19.5% 19.3% 19.1% 18.8%

Other Current Assets 17.8% 22.7% 15.1% 14.0% 10.7% 13.2% 13.0% 12.8% 12.7% 12.5% 12.4%

Net Property, Plant & Equipment 19.6% 20.6% 20.8% 20.9% 21.3% 22.4% 22.1% 21.8% 21.5% 21.3% 21.0%

Intangible Fixed Assets 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

Other Fixed Assets 15.2% 11.3% 21.2% 23.6% 24.0% 23.0% 22.6% 22.3% 22.1% 21.8% 21.5%

Total Assets 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Liabilities

Loans 28.8% 16.0% 13.4% 5.4% 5.3% 12.1% 11.9% 11.7% 11.6% 11.4% 11.3%

Creditors 11.2% 11.6% 7.3% 7.1% 6.0% 9.6% 9.5% 9.3% 9.2% 9.1% 9.0%

Other Current Liabilities 7.8% 8.3% 14.4% 15.0% 17.9% 12.3% 12.1% 11.9% 11.7% 11.6% 11.5%

Long Term Debt 8.2% 16.1% 12.8% 21.9% 22.7% 20.7% 20.4% 20.1% 19.8% 19.6% 19.4%

Other Non Current Liabilities 4.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%

Total Liabilities 60.3% 53.5% 49.4% 50.9% 53.4% 57.0% 56.1% 55.3% 54.6% 54.0% 53.3%

Equity

Capital 14.0% 13.1% 13.6% 13.7% 14.9% 14.0% 13.7% 13.5% 13.4% 13.2% 13.1%

Retained Earnings 21.4% 23.7% 23.2% 21.9% 17.2% 18.2% 19.6% 20.6% 21.6% 22.5% 23.5%

Other Shareholder Funds 4.3% 9.7% 13.7% 13.6% 14.4% 10.8% 10.7% 10.5% 10.4% 10.3% 10.1%

Total Equity 39.7% 46.5% 50.6% 49.1% 46.6% 43.0% 43.9% 44.7% 45.4% 46.0% 46.7%

�12

Income statement


Net sales 3,168,1343,514,8043,289,646 3,108,579 2,793,078 3,285,601 3,231,387 3,248,190 3,246,911 3,253,295 3,239,412

Other revenues 57,586 64,794 136,045 52,099 51,864 56,845 62,304 68,287 74,845 82,033 89,911

Total revenues 3,225,7203,579,5983,425,691 3,160,678 2,844,942 3,342,446 3,293,691 3,316,477 3,321,757 3,335,328 3,329,324

Cost of Goods Sold -1,844,709-2,084,211-1,868,159 -1,767,454 -1,626,784 -1,871,770 -1,844,467 -1,857,227 -1,860,184 -1,867,784 -1,864,421

Other Operating Items -700,843-903,543-888,141 -753,856 -721,823 -869,036 -790,486 -795,955 -797,222 -800,479 -799,038

EBITDA 680,168591,844 669,391 639,368 496,335 601,640 658,738 663,295 664,351 667,066 665,865

Total Deprec., Amort. & Depletion -143,023-146,726-205,279 -198,045 -208,732 206,371 218,690 229,870 242,186 255,053 268,478

Operating Income 537,145445,118 464,112 441,323 287,603 395,269 440,049 433,426 422,165 412,012 397,386

Unusual/Exceptional Items -56,250-4,847 -54,241 -24,648 -89,480 -50,137 -49,405 -49,747 -49,826 -50,030 -49,940

Earnings Before Interest & Tax 480,895440,271 409,871 416,675 198,123 345,132 390,643 383,679 372,339 361,982 347,446

Financial Revenue 21,656 20,903 17,250 6,352 3,370 3,852 3,157 4,174 5,119 6,031 6,907

Financial Expenses -119,506-89,958 -66,675 -51,746 -41,000 -52,565 -54,708 -54,494 -54,726 -54,881 -54,943

Financial P/L -97,850-69,055 -49,425 -45,394 -37,630 -48,713 -51,551 -50,320 -49,607 -48,850 -48,036

Other non Oper./Financial Inc./Exp. -136,906-79,596 -55,299 -38,592 113,830 92,586 91,235 91,866 92,013 92,389 92,222

Earnings before tax 246,139291,620 305,147 332,689 46,663 203,833 247,857 241,492 230,719 220,744 207,188

Income taxes -22,138-19,336 -23,448 -22,371 -15,821 -16,307 -37,178 -16,904 -16,150 -15,452 -14,503

Earnings after tax 224,001272,284 281,699 310,318 30,842 187,527 210,678 224,588 214,569 205,292 192,685

Minority interest -920 10,112 -2,778 -28,964 -35,762 -14,038 -13,834 -13,929 -13,951 -14,008 -13,983

Net Profit 223,081282,396 278,921 281,354 -4,920 173,488 196,845 210,659 200,618 191,283 178,702

Appendix 2

�13

Appendix 3

Common-Size Income Statement

Income statement

Consolidated data

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F

Net sales 98.2% 98.2% 96.0% 98.4% 98.2% 98.3% 98.1% 97.9% 97.7% 97.5% 97.3%

Other revenues

1.8% 1.8% 4.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7%

Total revenues

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Cost of Goods Sold

-57.2% -58.2% -54.5% -55.9% -57.2% -56.0% -56.0% -56.0% -56.0% -56.0% -56.0%

Other Operating Items

-21.7% -25.2% -25.9% -23.9% -25.4% -26.0% -24.0% -24.0% -24.0% -24.0% -24.0%

EBITDA 21.1% 16.5% 19.5% 20.2% 17.4% 18.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%

Total Deprec., Amort. & Depletion

-4.4% -4.1% -6.0% -6.3% -7.3% 6.2% 6.6% 6.9% 7.3% 7.6% 8.1%

Operating Income

16.7% 12.4% 13.5% 14.0% 10.1% 11.8% 13.4% 13.1% 12.7% 12.4% 11.9%

Unusual/Exceptional Items

-1.7% -0.1% -1.6% -0.8% -3.1% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5%

Earnings Before Interest & Tax

14.9% 12.3% 12.0% 13.2% 7.0% 10.3% 11.9% 11.6% 11.2% 10.9% 10.4%

Financial Revenue

0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Financial Expenses

-3.7% -2.5% -1.9% -1.6% -1.4% -1.6% -1.7% -1.6% -1.6% -1.6% -1.7%

Financial P/L -3.0% -1.9% -1.4% -1.4% -1.3% -1.5% -1.6% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% -1.4%

Other non Oper./Financial Inc./Exp.

-4.2% -2.2% -1.6% -1.2% 4.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%

Earnings before tax

7.6% 8.1% 8.9% 10.5% 1.6% 6.1% 7.5% 7.3% 6.9% 6.6% 6.2%

Income taxes

-0.7% -0.5% -0.7% -0.7% -0.6% -0.5% -1.1% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.4%

Earnings after tax

6.9% 7.6% 8.2% 9.8% 1.1% 5.6% 6.4% 6.8% 6.5% 6.2% 5.8%

Minority interest

0.0% 0.3% -0.1% -0.9% -1.3% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4%

Net Profit 6.9% 7.9% 8.1% 8.9% -0.2% 5.2% 6.0% 6.4% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4%

�14

• Rak ceramics was the “super brand” for many consecutive years.

• Because of their advanced computer application and system application products, they have won multiple awards.

• RAK ceramics leads the way as the world’s largest ceramic manufacturer.

• Operates in almost 160 countries. • Compared to its competitors, it has

a better-diversified portfolio of product.

• RAK ceramics is now facing many regional and national competitions.

• Their competitors are now offering their products at a lower price for people in order to earn market shares.

• They can use their overall distribution and system and after that extend to different parts of the world.

• Due to its high brand equity it has, they can look for further mergers. This would probably give the brand a more powerful situation and help it extend to many other markets.

• Being the world’s leading ceramic makers, they are always under the eyes and pressure of making decisions.

• The brand is yet to set up its essence in rising economies.

Consolidated data 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average

Average Collection Period 118 108 93 102 107 110 106

Average Payables Outstanding 389 421 274 242 155 146 271

Appendix 3

Key Financials 2017E 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F

EBITDA Margin 18.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00%

ROA 2.99% 3.38% 3.55% 3.33% 3.12% 2.89%

Revenue Growth 17.49% -1.46% 0.69% 0.16% 0.41% -0.18%

Dividend per Share 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20

Debt Ratio 60.28% 53.53% 49.42% 50.89% 53.44% 56.98%

Appendix 4

Appendix 5

�15

Peer Comparison

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Operating Cashflow Liquidity Ratio

RAK Ceramics ! 0.05 0.08 0.04 0.06 0.08

Union ! 1.98 2.58 11.17 0.00 0.00

Saudi Ceramics " 0.33 0.55 0.44 0.40 0.14

Fu Wang # 0.08 0.00 0.01 -0.03 0.06

Villeroy and Boch $ 0.39 0.59 1.10 0.69 1.62

KAJARIA % 0.35 0.31 0.70 0.76 1.13

Div Per Share Market Ratio

RAK Ceramics ! 0.17 0.17 0.24 0.29 0.15

Union ! 0.09 0.07 0.10 0.12 0.11

Saudi Ceramics " 1.84 2.20 1.47 1.96 0.98

Fu Wang # 0 0 0 0 0


KAJARIA % 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.14

ROA Profitability Ratio

RAK Ceramics ! 4.04 5.14 4.78 4.7 -0.08

Union ! 3.55 2.89 5.47 6.95 5.54

Saudi Ceramics " 10.28 11.56 10.65 9.04 0.77

Fu Wang # 9.04 4.03 2.92 2.35 8.52


KAJARIA % 9.51 10.78 11.18 12.84 13.3

Asset Turnover Activity Ratio

RAK Ceramics ! 0.60 0.62 0.52 0.51 0.49

Union ! 0.42 0.38 0.40 0.46 0.41

Saudi Ceramics " 0.57 0.57 0.54 0.51 0.42

Fu Wang # 0.59 0.51 0.50 0.44 0.53


KAJARIA % 1.57 1.54 1.55 1.43 1.41

Debt Ratio

RAK Ceramics ! 0.60 0.54 0.49 0.51 0.53

Union ! 0.11 0.11 0.08 0.08 0.10

Saudi Ceramics " 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.42 0.41

Fu Wang # 0.22 0.24 0.20 0.25 0.19


KAJARIA % 0.68 0.63 0.51 0.48 0.45

Appendix 6

�16

Adminstrative and General Expense

2017 2016 2015 2014

Staff Cost 74765 (47.6%) 83799 (47.2%) 81612 (35%) 84622 (38.8%)

Impariment Loss on Assets - - 48400 (20.8%) -

Impariment Loss on Recievables - - - 38735 (17.8%)

Others 82311 (52.4%) 93766 (52.8%) 102825 (44.2%) 94769 (56.6%)

Altman Z-Score AnalysisInput Variables 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Current Assets 3,409,810 3,795,168 3,410,832 3,251,184 3,057,008 3,365,434

Current Liabilities 2,542,094 2,039,691 2,107,055 1,648,009 1,678,337 2,353,129

Total Liabilities 3,201,850 3,039,861 2,965,062 3,044,323 3,076,174 3,311,381

Total Assets 5,311,997 5,679,296 5,999,875 5,981,775 5,756,254 5,811,566

Retained Earnings 1,138,339 1,345,699 1,394,015 1,307,371 990,262 1,059,657

Net sales 3,168,134 3,514,804 3,289,646 3,108,579 2,793,078 3,285,601

Operating Income 537,145 445,118 464,112 441,323 287,603 395,269

Market Capitalisation 795,227 2,333,656 2,452,568 2,853,154 2,103,077 2,317,700

Working Capital 867,716 1,755,477 1,303,777 1,603,175 1,378,671 1,012,305

Derived Variables 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

X1. Working Capital/ Total

Assets0.16 0.31 0.22 0.27 0.24 0.17

X2. Retained Earnings/ Total

Assets0.21 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.17 0.18

X3. EBIT/ Total Assets

0.10 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.07

X4. Market Capitalization/ Total Liabilities

0.25 0.77 0.83 0.94 0.68 0.70

X5. Sales/ Total Assets

0.60 0.62 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.57

Altman Z-Score 1.58 2.04 1.89 1.95 1.59 1.67

*The formula is Altman Z-Score = (1.2*X1) + (1.4*X2) + (3.3*X3) + (0.6*X4) + (1.0*X5).

Appendix 7

The Altman Z-Z-Score Analysis indicates a company’s financial health, and consequently, the probability of default. With the specified formula the indicator shows a score, in which below of 1.8 means that the company has a high probability of default and a score that is near 3.00 means that the company’s default probability is low. Result: Considering the financial information for the period 2013-2017 RAK Ceramics has a high probability of default.

Appendix 8

�17

• References (Damodaran, 2018) • (n.d.). Retrieved from The World Bank: http://www.worldbank.org/ • (n.d.). Retrieved from Investopedia: https://www.investopedia.com/ • Bloomberg. (2018, January). US. • Damodaran, A. (2018, January). Country Default Spreads and Risk Premiums. Retrieved from Damodoran: http://

pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html • Financial Reports. (2012 - 2017). Retrieved from RAK Ceramics - Investor Relations: http://corporate.rakceramics.com/

investors/financial-statements/ • Brexit Consequences: For UK, EU, and U.S. . (n.d.). Retrieved from The Balance: https://www.thebalance.com/brexit-

consequences-4062999 • Carvalho, S. (n.d.). UAE's RAK Ceramics plans capacity expansion in India: CEO. Retrieved from Retuers: https://

in.reuters.com/article/rak-ceramics-ceo/uaes-rak-ceramics-plans-capacity-expansion-in-india-ceo-idINKBN1DT1GE?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FINbusinessNews+%28News+%2F+IN+%2F+Business+News%29

•

Appendix 9; EndNotes

http://corporate.rakceramics.com/investors/financial-statements/




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