ceteris paribus spatial complexity spatial equilibrium
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CETERIS PARIBUS SPATIAL COMPLEXITY SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM. Peter Nijkamp 28 November 2006 “As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.” - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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CETERIS PARIBUSCETERIS PARIBUS SPATIAL COMPLEXITY SPATIAL COMPLEXITY SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM
Peter Nijkamp28 November 2006
“As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality they are not certain; and asfar as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.”
(Albert Einstein)
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A new challenge
• What is the space-economy?
• First law of geography (Tobler)
• Gravity law (Newton)
• Simplicity versus complexity
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Ceteris paribus and the space-economy
• Complex discovery tour and simple assumptions
• Cf. maps and models
• Abstraction
• Ceteris paribus (1311!)
• Marshall’s partial equilibrium analysis
• Partial cause-effect relationships (Black Box)
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Spatial interaction in open systems• Space time interaction
• Spatio-temporal autocorrelation• Connectivity in network structures
• Evolution and dissipative structures (Prigogine)
• Endogeneity and causality specification
• Complex spatial dynamics and ceteris paribus
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Spacial-economic complexity
• Principles of complexity theory• Path dependency versus feedbacks• Bifurcation, catastrophe, chaos, synergetics• Complex solution trajectories• Drivers: resilience
sustainabilityevolutionary principles- Volterra-Lotka- predator-prey- May- symbiosus- niche- self-organisation
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• Search for behaviourial paradigm- optimizer- bounded rationality- learning principles (survival)- simulation
Spacial-economic complexity (2)
“Learning is …..a growth, where every act of knowledge develops the learner, thus making him capable of constituting ever more and more complex objectivities.”
(Husserl)
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Principles of spacial-economic equilibrium• Mathematical rigor ‘rigor mortis’• CGE• Lösch
IsardLeontief
• Kaldor’s Okun Memorial lecture
• Interactive economics?
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The methodology of spatial economics revisited• Evolutionary ecology• Specification analysis• Artificial intelligence
- computational neural networks- self-organised criticality- adaptive learning models
• Counterfactional analysis• Value transfer / meta-analysis• Micro-behavioural basis• Modelling as cognitive science?
“The mecca of the economist lies in economic biology.”(Alfred Marshall, 1896)