centre for integrated energy research dramatic principles and participatory energy scenario design:...

Centre for Integrated Energy Research

DRAMATIC PRINCIPLES AND PARTICIPATORY ENERGY SCENARIO DESIGN: OBSERVATIONS

FROM 14 EUROPEAN CITIES

• Dr Paul Upham, University of Leeds• Dr Rita Klapper, Manchester Business School• Dr Sebastian Carney, Carbon Captured Ltd

Overview– Inductive research

approach– What makes for a good

scenario process? – The GRIP scenario process

(EU CO2 80/50 project)– Affective dimensions of

perception & learning– Principles of drama & myth– Recommendations



Project context• INTERREG

project 2008-10• 21 European

metropolitan regions

• Multi-tier GHG emissions inventorisation

• Scenario generation with real-time feedback


What makes for a good participatory scenario process?

Masini and Vasquez (2000) – 6 principles: humility, flexibility, rigorous back-up (data support), a willingness for continuous redesign of scenarios, stakeholder participation and an ethical and critical attitude

We discuss two broad design principles:• access to feedback on the consequences of scenario

assumptions (we use GRIP)• a supportive narrative structure (we use dramatic conventions)

The research design/approach is descriptive, interpretative and also abductive (think CSI or Holmes…)


Ham

burg

Rotte

rdam

Oslo Porto

Man

ches

ter

Napl

es

Stoc

khol

m

Stutt

gart

-100.0%

-90.0%

-80.0%

-70.0%

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3

Perc

enta

ge R

educ

tion


Hamburg

Glasgow

Rotterdam

Paris Oslo

MadridPorto

Helsinki

Mancheste

rTurin

Naples

Brusse

ls

Stockholm

Frankfurt

Stuttgart

Sacramento

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

BaselineScenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3

Rotterdam's figures are higher than others due to the petroleum refinineries in the city

Tonn

es C

O2

Per C

apit

a

Bruner and narrative• People learn not only through reasoning but also through ‘stories’• Stories are simply sequences of ideas; they may or may not be ‘true’• In a previous paper we focused on the cognitive aspect of learning• Here we focus on parallels between the scenario process and output

& dramatic structure


http://johnnyholland.org/2011/10/storyboarding-ux-part-1-an-introduction/


Technique of Drama (1863), Gustav Freytag


Aristotle in Poetics

• Plot is most important feature of a drama and provides structure

• Aim for a tightly constructed cause-and-effect chain of actions• Characters should be plausible and consistent• Simple plots involve a “change of fortune” (catastrophe)• Complex plots have “reversal of intention” (peripeteia) and

“recognition” (anagnorisis) connected to a catastrophe• There may be haramatia – an inevitability about a downfall• Katharsis – an eventual renewal as a result of the process• Spectacle is the least important feature but nonetheless

present. Also melody and chorus.


Plot: GRIP embodies causes and effects, plausible relationships and is highly structured

Characters: the scenario participants debate the likely actions of the human agents in their scenarios and fix this with assumptions

Learning and recognition: the scenario participants go through a day of journeying, ascendance, descent and climax, as plausibilities and implausibilities are debated and decided on

• The need to avoid Catastrophe, achieve “reversal of intention” (peripeteia) and “recognition” (anagnorisis) frame the process

• Inevitable downfall (haramatia) and Katharsis ? Tbc…


MADRID

Centre for Integrated Energy Research STOCKHOLM


In case you thought we were totally barking…

One can imagine integrating a calculator such as GRIP with narrative-support software such as Plotbuilder

http://www.plotbuilder.com/overview.html


ConclusionsIn common with a few others, we have emphasised the value of a narrative perspective of scenario development, to support learning, sense-making and plausibility

Here, though, we are more explicit in seeking to show the relevance of an enduring model of ideal dramatic form and also other mythology-focused narrative analysis

We see value in the narrative approach for the analysis of scenario processes, scenario output and also as a consideration in scenario design, with scope for further integrating scientific and imaginative methods


Thanks for listening – our contact details are:

[email protected]

[email protected] / [email protected]

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centre for integrated energy research dramatic principles and participatory energy scenario design:...

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