central highlandseconomic profile february 2016 snapshot · this profile provides a snapshot of the...

Central Highlands

Economic

ProfileFebruary 2016 SNAPSHOT

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ContentsRegion Overview .............................................................................................................................3

Population ........................................................................................................................................4

Non-Resident Population and Origin .............................................................................................5

Income and Families .......................................................................................................................6

Industry and Unemployment Rate .................................................................................................7

Output and Value-Added ................................................................................................................8

Local Expenditure and Regional Net Exports ................................................................................9

Summary Indicators and Gap Analysis ........................................................................................10

Gap Analysis ...................................................................................................................................11

Major Projects ................................................................................................................................12

Building Approvals .........................................................................................................................13

New Lot Sales and Median Price .................................................................................................14

Dwelling Sales and Median Price ................................................................................................15

Median Weekly Rent .....................................................................................................................16

Tourism Output ...............................................................................................................................17

Visitor Profile ..................................................................................................................................18

Business Activity and Labour Force..............................................................................................19

Central Highlands Development Corporation ..............................................................................20

AbbreviationsThroughout this profile a series of abbreviations has been utilised. These are summarised here

ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics

CH Central Highlands

CHDC Central Highlands Development Corporation

CHRC Central Highlands Regional Council

FITZROY SA4 Fitzroy Statistical Area Level 4

GRP Gross Regional Product

LGA Local Government Area

M2 Square Metres

QGSO Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

QLD Queensland

RTA Residential Tenancies Authority

TRA Tourism Research Australia

This profile provides a snapshot of the Central Highlands economic profile. For further information, the full version of this profile is available on Central Highlands Development Corporation’s website: www.chdc.com.au. The bibliography for all references is also outlined in the full version.

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The Central Highlands is a robust region that sits at the heart of Queensland’s resources and agricultural sectors.

Spanning almost 60,000km2, the Central Highlands region is just short of the size of Tasmania.

It includes a significant portion of Australia’s largest coal reserve, the Bowen Basin and is strategically located to service Australia’s newest mining province, the Galilee Basin. Coal mining is a staple ingredient in the region’s economy, even during softer global markets.

Sustained by irrigation sourced from water storage on the Nogoa and Comet rivers, the Central Highlands is also characterised by thriving farming industries, including beef, cotton, grapes and citrus.

Major freight routes intersect the region, including the north-south link between Charters Towers and northern New South Wales, identified as the inland transport alternative between Cairns and Melbourne.

Pristine natural attractions, such as Carnarvon Gorge and the Sapphire Gemfields, are driving an emerging tourism market.

A population of more than 30,000 and a median age of 31 help underpin the Central Highlands’ economic strength of a skilled, locally-based workforce.

OVERVIEW

Longreach

Brisbane

Rockhampton

CapellaTieri

SapphireGemfields Emerald

BauhiniaArcadia Valley

Rolleston

Springsure

BluffComet DingoDuaringa

Blackwater

Region Overview

Snapshot

CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ECONOMIC PROFILE FEBRUARY 20164

DEMOGRAPHICS

PopulationPOPULATION

The estimated resident population in Central Highlands as at 30 June, 2014 is 31,595 people. Between 2004 and 2014 the Central Highlands (estimated resident) population increased by 5,454 people (20.9%), with an average annual compound population growth of 1.9% between 2004 and 2014.

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Queensland Government population projections, 2013 edition (medium series) were released in March 2014.

Between 2016 and 2036, the population of Central Highlands is projected to increase by 10,430 people. The average annual projected population growth between 2016 and 2026 of 1.5% is lower than the average growth rates experienced over the previous 10 years (1.9%).

POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY AGE COHORT – CENTRAL HIGHLANDS

Source: ABS (2015c)

Source: QGSO (2014)

HIGHLIGHTS

■ Population growth of 1.9% per year from 2004 to 2014

■ Forecast population growth of 1.5% per year from 2016 to 2026

■ A population of 43,455 people by 2036

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NON-RESIDENT POPULATION

The estimated non-resident population in Central Highlands as at 30 June, 2014 is 3,380 people. The average annual non-resident population growth between 2006 and 2014 of 4.8% is significantly higher than population growth of 1.9% over the same period. Total average annual full-time equivalent population growth in Central Highlands between 2006 and 2014 was 2.1%.

Non-Resident Population and Origin

HIGHLIGHTS

■ Average annual growth of the non-resident population of 4.8% has out-paced resident population growth of 1.9% from 2006 to 2014

■ When compared to Queensland, Central Highlands comprises a larger proportion of Aboriginal residents

■ Population growth in Central Highlands is being driven by arrivals from overseas, as well as other intrastate locations such as Rockhampton and Brisbane

DEMOGRAPHICS

Source: ABS (2015c) and QGSO (2015)

INDIGENOUS STATUS

Analysis of the Indigenous status of Central Highlands residents in 2011 compared to Queensland shows that there is a higher proportion of Aboriginals in Central Highlands (3.2%, compared to 2.8% in Central Highlands). Overall, the local Indigenous population accounts for 3.6% of the total Central Highlands population, which is in line with the Queensland proportion (also 3.6%).

Source: ABS (2012)


WEEKLY INDIVIDUAL INCOME

Analysis of individual income levels in Central Highlands in 2011 compared to Queensland shows that there is a significantly higher proportion earning $1,000 per week or more (38.3%, compared to 25.5% in Queensland).

Overall, 26.1% of persons earn a low income (less than $400 per week) and 24.7% earn a high income ($1,500 or more per week), compared to 34.6% and 11.8%, respectively in Queensland.

FAMILY COMPOSITION

Central Highlands comprises a higher proportion of couple families with children (52.9%) when compared with Queensland (42.8%), and a lower proportion of couple families with no children (36.9%) compared with Queensland (39.5%).

Overall, 9.1% of families are one parent families, and 1.0% are other families, compared with 16.1% and 1.7%, respectively for Queensland.

Income and Families

DEMOGRAPHICS

HIGHLIGHTS

■ Over 38% of Central Highlands residents earn $1,000 per week or more

■ Central Highlands comprises a higher proportion of couple families with children than the Queensland average

Source: ABS (2012)

Source: ABS (2012)

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EMPLOYMENT

Source: ABS (2012)

Industry and Unemployment Rate

HIGHLIGHTS

■ The Central Highlands has a total workforce of 16,710, with 72.8% of workers residing locally

■ Mining is the largest employer of both the resident (25.6%) and non-resident (56.9%) workforce

■ From 2014 to the year ending September Quarter 2015 the number of unemployed people has increased by 17.3%

■ The unemployment rate has increased from 1.7% in 2008 to 4.6% in the year ending September Quarter 2015

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

From 2008 to 2015, the unemployment rate in Central Highlands has ranged from a low of 1.7% in 2008 to a peak of 4.6% in the year to September 2015.

*Year to September Quarter 2015Source: Department of Employment (2015); ABS (2015b)


OUTPUT

Output data represents the gross revenue generated by businesses / organisations in each of the industry sectors in a defined region.

The output generated by the Central Highlands regional economy is estimated at $8.63 billion.

VALUE-ADDED

Value-added data represents the marginal economic value that is added by each industry sector in a defined region. Value-added can be calculated by subtracting local expenditure and expenditure on regional imports from the output generated by an industry sector, or alternatively, by adding the Wages & Salaries paid to local employees, the gross operating surplus and taxes on products and production. Value-added by industry sector is the major element in the calculation of Gross Regional Product.

The total value-added by the Central Highlands regional economy is estimated at $3.65 billion.

Output and Value-Added

INDUSTRY

HIGHLIGHTS

■ Mining contributes 60.4% of total output in Central Highlands

■ The Mining sector contributes 58.4% of total value-added for Central Highlands

Source: REMPLAN (2015)


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Local Expenditure and Regional Net Exports

LOCAL EXPENDITURE

Local Expenditure data represents the value of intermediate goods and services purchased by local industry sectors within the region. A high level of local expenditure on intermediate goods and services proportionate to total output is indicative of well-developed local supply chains and also that any expansion in this sector would typically deliver broad based benefits for the region’s economy.

The total local expenditure estimate for Central Highlands is $1.515 billion.

REGIONAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS

Regional Imports data represents the value of goods and services imported into the defined region by businesses / organisations in each of the industry sectors. Another way of defining imports is as an outflow of money from the region. The total regional imports estimate for Central Highlands is $3.465 billion.

Regional Exports data represents the value of goods and services exported outside of the region that have been generated by industry sectors within the region. The total regional export estimate for Central Highlands is $5.763 billion.

INDUSTRY

HIGHLIGHTS

■ Of the total $1.515 billion of local expenditure in Central Highlands, the Mining sector contributes 63.2%

■ The Mining sector contributes 61.3% of total regional imports and 84.3% of total regional exports in Central Highlands

■ The difference between Regional Imports and Regional Exports represents a net value attributable to the local economy which positively influences Gross Regional Product. Central Highlands imports $3.465 billion and exports $5.763 billion of goods and services. The net export value for Central Highlands is $2.298 billion




SUMMARY INDICATORS

Central Highlands accounts for:

● 24.4% of Fitzroy SA4 and 1.3% of Queensland’s GRP● 24.3% and 1.4% of Queensland’s output● 25.1% and 1.3% of Queensland’s value-added● 37.6% and 5.7% of Queensland’s regional exports● 31.5% and 3.4% of Queensland’s regional imports.

Summary Indicators and Gap Analysis

IMPORT REPLACEMENT OPPORTUNITIES

Imports reflect demand in the area’s economy for goods and services not supplied locally and therefore represent ‘Gaps’ in local supply chains. Imports from the rest of Australia may indicate opportunities for import replacement, increased value-adding and supply chain development. Supply of these goods and services is currently feasible in the Australian context and may provide a guide to realistic, high value strategic opportunities to further develop the local economy. The total replacement of imports with local production is improbably however it may be possible to capture a proportion of this escape expenditure.

Total imports by industry sectors in Central Highlands from the rest of Australia are estimated at $3.161 billion.

INDUSTRY

HIGHLIGHTS

■ Central Highlands accounts for 24.4% of the Fitzroy SA4 GRP

■ The region accounts for 1.3% of Queensland’s GRP

■ The ‘Mining’ sector imports $2.05 billion (66.1%) of goods and services for input to production from the rest of Australia, the ‘Construction’ sector imports $349.1 million, accounting for 11.0% of industry imports, and the ‘Manufacturing’ sector imports $118.902 million from outside of Central Highlands



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INDUSTRY

Gap AnalysisEXTERNAL INDUSTRY SECTORS SUPPLYING TO THE REGION

In order to identify potential gaps within the region, REMPLAN data has been applied at the 45 industry sector level. The local industry sectors import a total of $3.161 billion of goods and services from the rest of Australia, conversely industry sectors in the rest of Australia supply $3.161 billion of goods and services to the local industries as part of the process of production.

HIGHLIGHTS

■ Industry sectors within Central Highlands import $354.087 million from the ‘Professional, Scientific & Technical Services’ sector, $272.441 million from the ‘Exploration & Mining Support Services’ sector, and $226.587 million from the ‘Metal & Metal Product Manufacturing’ sector from the ‘rest of Australia’



Based on available information, there is currently $13.8 billion in known major project investment currently underway or planned for short term development in Central Highlands.

Mining and energy projects account for over $9 billion of known projects, while water and sewerage account for $4.5 billion.

Moreover, known projects that are located outside of the Central Highlands Region of Significance that will still have significant economic benefits to the region approximate $23.2 billion.

Major Projects

INDUSTRY

HIGHLIGHTS

■ The Development Register outlines projects that can be sourced. As such, it does not capture all of the investment in the region

■ Mining investment projects account for $8.065 billion of total investment projects in the Central Highlands

■ Total project investment, including projects outside of the Central Highlands Region of Significance, currently stands at $37.012 billion

Source: CHDC (2015)

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There were 37 new dwelling approvals in 2014-15, a decrease of 152 dwellings from the previous 12 months, comprising 35 houses and 2 “other” (unit) dwellings. Central Highlands dwelling approvals appear to be cyclical, peaking in 2012-13. Over the 10 year period from 2004-05 to 2014-15, separate house approvals have accounted for approximately 77% of total dwelling approvals. The highest levels of unit approvals occurred in 2011-12 (46%).

The total value of building approvals during 2014-15 is $738.4 million. The value of residential building approvals peaked in 2012-13 at $3 billion. The value of ‘non-residential’ approvals has generally accounted for approximately 40% of the value of total building approvals.

Building Approvals

HOUSING

HIGHLIGHTS

■ Separate house approvals have accounted for approximately 77% of total dwelling approvals from 2004-05 to 2014-15

■ The value of non-residential approvals has generally accounted for approximately 40% of the value of total building approvals

Source: ABS (2015)

Source: ABS (2015)


MEDIAN PRICE

New Lot Sales and Median Price

HOUSING

HIGHLIGHTS

■ The median price for vacant land in Central Highlands in 2015 is $126,000. Data is not available for the median price of packaged house and land sales for the same period

Source: QGSO (2015b)

The median sales price of vacant land has been decreasing from 2014 to 2015 after peaking in 2013 with $160,000. The median value of packaged house and land sales has also decreased in 2014, after decreasing in 2012 and 2013 with $458,000.

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DWELLING SALES

There were a total of 199 new and established detached and attached dwelling sales in 2015 within Central Highlands, of which 90% were detached house sales. Detached housing sales have accounted for the majority of dwelling sales activity within the region, accounting for approximately 84% of all dwelling sales.

Dwelling Sales and Median Price

MEDIAN PRICE

HOUSING

HIGHLIGHTS

■ Dwelling sales peaked in 2012, with a total of 1,070 sales

■ The median sales price in 2015 for detached houses is $240,000 compared to $265,000 for units and townhouses



Both the detached and attached dwelling markets experienced a peak in median sales price in 2013, with $440,000 and $370,000, respectively. The median sales price for both detached and attached dwellings has decreased from 2013 to 2015, by 45% and 28%, respectively.


Regional data has been sourced from the Queensland Residential Tenancies Authority for median rental data from June Quarter 2011 to December Quarter 2015 for:

● Units/Flats – two and three bedroom; ● Houses – three and four bedroom; and ● Townhouses – three bedroom.

Median rents in Central Highlands have continued to decrease from the December Quarter 2012 to the December Quarter 2014, after peaking in the June Quarter 2012.

Median Weekly Rent

HOUSING

HIGHLIGHTS

■ Within Central Highlands, four bedroom houses are experiencing the highest rental rates, followed by three bedroom product for all dwelling types (houses, units/flats and townhouses). Two bedroom units/flats provide the lowest rental option

■ From June 2011 to December 2012 the median weekly rent in Central Highlands was consistently higher than the surrounding Rockhampton and Gladstone Regions. This can be attributed to a high demand for short term accommodation driven by the resources sector over this time

■ Rents dropped in comparison to the Rockhampton and Gladstone Regions from December 2012 to 2015; this can be attributed to a reduction in demand for short term accommodation in Central Highlands

Source: RTA (2016)

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TOURISM

Tourism is not identified as a separate industry sector in the National Accounts data, instead tourism is an amalgam of activities across various industry sectors such as retail, accommodation, cafés and restaurants, and cultural and recreational services. The Tourism Module in REMPLAN estimates the total value of tourism for the local economy.

TOURISM OUTPUT

The estimated output generated by tourism for each industry sector has been deducted and consolidated into a separate tourism sector. The total output estimate for Central Highlands is $8.63 billion, with Tourism contributing $193.159 million.

OUTPUT ATTRIBUTABLE TO TOURISM

Tourism output has been estimated to be $193.159 million. The following graph shows the gross revenue generated by businesses and organisations in Central Highlands to service demand generated by tourists to the area.

OutputHIGHLIGHTS

■ The Tourism sector contributes 2.2% of total Central Highlands output

■ The ‘Accommodation & Food Services’ sector contributes 68.0% of total tourism related output




Source: CHRC (2016)

PASSENGERS

From 2010-11 to 2014-15, the number of passengers through Emerald Airport peaked in 2012-13 with a total of 310,640 passengers. Since 2012-13, the number of passengers through the airport has been decreasing, by -15% to 2013-14 and by -12% to 2014-15. The six months to December 2015 has seen 113,128 passengers through Emerald Airport; this is less than the same period in 2014 (124,811 people) and 2013 (140,024 people).

Visitor Profile

TOURISM

HIGHLIGHTS

■ The Tourism sector contributes 6.4% to total Central Highlands employment

■ Central Highlands typically has more domestic day visitors to the region than domestic overnight and international visitors

■ During each year from 2010-11 to 2014-15, passenger numbers through Emerald Airport have typically peaked in the June/July period

■ The six months to December 2015 has seen a total of 113,128 passengers through the airport

VISITOR PROFILE

The visitor profile provides data for Central Highlands for four year average to 2013.

Source: TRA (2014)

AVERAGE LENGTH OF STAY

The following data has been sourced from Tourism Research Australia, Tourism in Local Government Areas for 2013 for Central Highlands. Within Central Highlands, the average length of stay for international visitors is 19.4 nights, while the average length of stay of domestic overnight visitors is 4.1 nights. Domestic overnight visitors spend an average of $389 per trip and $95 per night, compared to $797 and $41, respectively for international visitors.

Source: TRA (2014)

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TRENDS

BUSINESS ACTIVITY

As at June 2014, there are 3,223 businesses operating in Central Highlands. The largest number of registered businesses are in the ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector (1,129), followed by ‘Construction’ (459).

Business ActivityHIGHLIGHTS

■ 3,223 businesses operating in Central Highlands

■ The largest number of registered businesses are in the ‘Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing’ sector

■ The Central Highlands labour force has peaked in the year to September Quarter 2015 with a total of 18,519 people

Source: ABS (2015a)

LABOUR FORCE

The estimated number of people employed in Central Highlands in the year to September 2015 is 17,675 people. Since 2008, the labour force has increased by 3,253 people, the number of employed people has increased by 2,669 people and the number of unemployed people has increased by 584 people.

*Year to September Quarter 2015 Source: Department of Employment (2015)

This economic profile has been prepared by REMPLAN in partnership with the CHDC. All figures and data presented in this document are based on data sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), and other government agencies. Using ABS datasets, the regional economic modelling software ‘REMPLAN Economy’, has been applied to generate industrial economic data estimates. This document is provided in good faith with every effort made to provide accurate data and apply comprehensive knowledge. However, REMPLAN does not guarantee the accuracy of the data nor the conclusions drawn from this information.

Central Highlands

Development Corporation

Central Highlands Development Corporation (CHDC) is a not-for-profit organisation, proactively supporting regional economic growth and tourism. Our primary role is to facilitate, coordinate and promote economic and tourism development initiatives and opportunities in the Central Highlands region.

This role is further reflected in the CHDC’s core business goals:

1. Advocate for sustainable regional and economic growth2. Proactively market and promote the Central Highlands as a ‘region of choice’3. Enhance workforce development4. Support business development, innovation and capacity5. Support community organisations to develop skills and knowledge6. Sustain, refresh and grow our organisation

Business and community partnerships are critical to the delivery of these goals. If you have any queries about the economic profile, the Central Highlands region, or any issues related to regional economic growth, do not hesitate to contact the CHDC via the details below.

Central Highlands Development CorporationPO Box 1425, Emerald QLD 4720T (07) 4982 4386F (07) 4982 4068E [email protected] www.chdc.com.au

THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION IS THE LEAD ECONOMIC AND TOURISM DEVELOPMENT AGENCY IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.

(07) 5689 1499 / (03) 5444 4788www.remplan.com.au

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