cec cog model version 2.02-4!5!10

7/27/2019 CEC COG Model Version 2.02-4!5!10

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INSTRUCTIONS- Do not attempt to use Model before reading lines 3 - 27.

This model should not be used for a Start Year more than 10 years in the future because it is not

reasonable to forecast detailed plant performance and cost data beyond that point.

It is preferable to first read the COG Model's User's Guide, but the following instructions will allow you to use the Model.

Note: Model is designed to work with Excel 2000 and later versions. Some functions may not work with Excel 97.

INSTRUCTIONS FOR EXCEL VERSIONS 2001- 20031. If, when opening the model, Excel gives you the option to "Enable Macros" select this option.

If Excel gives you the message that the Macros are disabled, set security level to Medium. (Under Tools--> Options-->Security-->Macro Security, set security level to Medium)

Save, close and then reopen Model. If you do not enable the macros, the Model will not work correctly.

2.Go to INPUT-OUTPUTWorksheet and follow instructions for entering data and saving scenarios.

Standard Technologies can be selected in the "Input Selection" table.3.Read Levelized Costs in the "Output Results" table on theINPUT-OUTPUTWorksheet.

INSTRUCTIONS FOR EXCEL VERSIONS 20071.When opening the model, a message will appear just above the COG Model worksheet:

Security Warning Some active content has been disabled followed by a box with the word"Options"Click on that box and a window will open, with two options. Select the Enable this content option,

click on the Okay box, and the window will close thus activating the macros.

Save, close and then reopen Model. If you do not enable the macros, the Model will not work correctly.

2.Go to INPUT-OUTPUTWorksheet and follow instructions for entering data and saving scenarios.

Standard Technologies can be selected in the "Input Selection" table.3.Read Levelized Costs in the "Output Results" table on theINPUT-OUTPUTWorksheet.

MODEL STRUCTURE

The Worksheets are color coded to assist in understanding the model.Changes Tracks Model modifications using version numbers.

Instructions General Instructions & Model Description.

WEP Forecast Estimates Wholesale Electric Price Forecast

Adders Provides Adder Costs that can be entered exogenously for the combined cycle & simple cycle units.

Input-Output User selects Assumptions - Levelized Costs are reported along with some key data values.

Data 1 Plant, Financial, & Tax Data are summarized - User can override data for unique scenarios.

Data 2 Construction, O&M Costs are calculated in base year dollars.

Income Statement Calculates Annual Costs and Levelizes those Costs Using Revenue Requirement accounting

Income Cash -Flow Calculates Annual Costs and Levelizes those Costs Using Cash-Flow accounting

Plant Type Assumptions Summary of Data Assumptions summary for each Plant Type.

PTA - Average Average Plant Type AssumptionsPTA - High High Plant Type Assumptions

PTA - Low Low Plant Type Assumptions

Financial Assumptions Data Assumptions summary of all Financial Data.

General Assumptions General Assumptions summary such as Inflation Rates & Tax Rates.

Plant Site Air & Water Data Regional Air Emissions & Water Costs - Used by Data 2 Worksheet.

Overhaul Calcs Calculates Overhaul & Equipment Replacement Costs - Used by Data 2 Worksheet.

Inflation Calculates Historical & Forward Inflation Rates based on GDP Price Deflator Series - Used by Income Statement Workshe

Fuel Price Forecasts Fuel Price Forecast - Used by the Income Statement Worksheet.

Heat Rate Table Shows the regression and provides the Heat Rate factors.

Labor Table Calculates the Labor Cost components.

The data assumptions are primarily stored in three Worksheets: Plant Type Assumptions, Financial Assumptions andGeneral

use the INPUT-OUTPUTWorksheet to select assumptions, a macro will place the data you selected into the Data 1 and Data 2 Wo

Data 1 and Data 2 Worksheets will appear coded in the color that corresponds to the assumptions worksheet that it came from. Thepeform various calculations and then make that data available to the Income Statement Worksheet, which calculates all the releve

calculates a Present Value for each and finally calculates the Levelized Values which are sent to theINPUT-OUTPUTWorksheet. TW k h t t Fi d V i bl d T t l L li d C t Th l il bl b th $/kW Y d $/MWh Th INPUT

Protected Cells - Certain cells are "protected" to prevent inadvertentoverwriting by a user that might render the model unusable or inconsistent.

The protection password is "CEC".


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Cost of Generation Inputs

Combined Cycle Standard - 2

Turbines Duct Firin

Financial (Ownership) Assumptions (Select) Merchant Fossil Start Yea

Ownership Type For Scenarios Merchant Capital &

General Assumptions (Select) Default Insurance

Base Year (All Costs In 2009 Dollars) 2009 Ad Valore

Fuel Type (Accept Default) Natural Gas Fixed O&M

Data Source Aspen 5-23-09 Corporate

Fixed Cos

Start (Inservice) Year (Enter) 2009 Fuel & GHNatural Gas Price Forecast (Select) CA Average Variable O

Plant Site Region (Air & Water) (Select) CA - Avg. Variable C

Study Perspective (Select) To Delivery Point Transmis

Reported Construction Cost Basis (Select) Instant Total Lev

Turbine Configuration (Select) 2

Carbon Price Forecast(Select) No Carbon Price

Cost Scenario(Select) Mid-range

Tax Loss Treatment (Select) Loss Recovered in Single Year

Input CodingPlant Type Assumptions

Financial Assumptions Instant Co

General Assumptions Installed C

Data 1 & Data 2 Fixed O&M

Fuel Price Forecast Variable O

Instructions for Input Selection Capacity(Review Instructions Worksheet) 2009

Gross (De

1. Select Plant Type (C5,6) Net Capac 2. Select Financial (Ownership) Assumptions (C7) Net Capac

3. Select General Assumptions (C9) To Delive

4. Enter Start Year (C14)

5. Select Fuel Price - by Area (C15) Operation 6. Select Plant Site Region (C16) Scheduled

7. Select Location Perspective (C17) Forced Ou

8. Identify whether Costs are Instant or Installed (C18) Operation 9. Select Turbine Configuration; for CCs only. Equivalen10. REPEAT INSTRUCTIONS 1, 2 & 3. Capacity F

11. Read Output Results (F8- H17)Fuel Use

Instructions for Saving New Scenario Average (Saving New Seet of Assumptions) Fuel Use

Fuel Price

1. Click Save as New Scenario" Button.2. An Add New Scenario window opens up. Financial

Com

Capital &

Warning: Changing

these cells will

overwrite any

modifications you

have made to that

category of inputs.

Save inputs as a

New Scenario if you

Plant Type Assumptions(Select)

California Energy Commission


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3. Select the Scenario Type: Plant Type, Financial, or General Equity

4. Enter an appropriate Scenario Name Debt Financed5. Click the Add Button. Discount Rate6. The Scenario is stored on the respective worksheet as selected in step 3.

Inflation Rate F

Instructions for Recalling Saved Scenario Loan/Debt TerEquipment Life

1. Based on the Assumption made the Saved Scenario can be found in that drop down menu. Economic/Boo2. If the Scenario was saved as a Plant Type Assumption it will be stored in that drop down menu box. Federal Tax Lif

Like Wise, it is the same for any other Assumption selected. State Tax Life



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Levelized NPV 2009 2010 2

Fixed Costs $45 $374 $42 $42

Variable Costs $82 $675 $55 $61

Total Costs $127 $1,049 $96 $103 $

Levelized

2009 Levelized NPV 2009 2010 2

N/A Asset Rental Price $50 $411 $45 $46

N/A Fuel & O&M Costs $86 $708 $61 $65

$9.52 Total Costs $135 $1,118 $106 $110 $

$3.66

Energy

(GWh)

3,321.53,225.1

3,209.0

3,141.9

FOR REFERENCE ONLY: BASED ON ASSET RENTAL PRICE

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$/MWh

Capita

Financin

Construc

25%

Ad Val

Fixed O&

1%Corporate Taxes

(w/Credits)

Fuel & GHG

Emissions Costs60%

Variable O&M

3%

Levelized Cost ComponentsBy Percentage



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450

SCREENING CURVE - Start Year 200CreateScreening

Curve

California Energy Commission 1


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Cost of Generation Inp

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 202

$48 $49 $49 $50 $51 $5

$102 $106 $113 $117 $122 $12

$150 $154 $163 $167 $173 $17

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 202

$53 $54 $55 $56 $57 $5

$106 $109 $117 $121 $125 $12

$159 $163 $172 $176 $182 $18

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 202

Fixed Costs,$45 , 36%

d Cost Components



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inal 2009$)



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COG Model Version 2; 4/4/2010

Version Worksheet Cell(s)

v 2.00 ALL WORKSHEETS ALL

v 2.01 PTA Mid, Hi & Lo Cells 9G-9ICells 18G-18I

v 2.01 PTA Mid D44-I45

v 2.01 PTA Mid G15

v 2.01 PTA Mid, Hi, Lo Row 113

v 2.01 PTA Hi, Lo W36

v 2.02 Input-Output AM 54, etc

Created for IEPR 2009 and Updated for

online release


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to do PSA&W Data


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COG Modelers : Joel Klein , Paul Devers - CEC; Richard McCann - Aspen

ChangeUsed For 2009 IEPR Report "COMPARATIVE COSTS OF CALIFORNIA CENTRAL

STATION ELECTRICITY GENERATION," January 2010

Changed heat rate and capacity degradation for combined cycle units from .2% to .24%to reflect 4 year overhaul period

Update gas O&M costs to conform with "Data Responses for Gas Fired Technologies 6-4-09.xlsx" (revised that file to Data Responses for Gas Fired Technologies 9-28-09.xlsx)

Added regression for Heat Rate formula for non duct-fired combined cycle unit.

Linears removed as they are already accounted for in Instant Costs. Error is quite small.

Changed high Wind CF from 41% to 34%; Low Wind CF from 34% to 41%

Corrected Sensitivity Curve Title and run time error.


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Update ERC forecasts for ARB data


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EG

Comments on changes

http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CEC-200-2009-017/CEC-200-2009-017-SF.PDF

For CC duct-fired 70% CF= 3.9 yrs. For CC 75% CF = 3.6 yrs. Rounded off both to 4 years. Effect isneglible, but corrected for accuracy in documentation.

Deleted hard wired labor values as the model matches the file and the model is more transparent.

Formula was inadverdently replaced by singular number.

Envirionmental Adders are also redundant but very small and it simplifies the calculation and allowsfor the time when they are actually significant.

These values were transposed in the KEMA data and only recently noticed.

These problems were introduced by MS Office 2007.
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CEC-200-2009-017/CEC-200-2009-017-SF.PDFhttp://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CEC-200-2009-017/CEC-200-2009-017-SF.PDF


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Author Date

J Klein 26-Jan-10

J Klein 8-Sep-09

R McCann 28-Sep-09

J Klein 28-Sep-09

J Klein 29-Sep-09

J Klein 28-Jan-10

J Klein 5-Apr-10


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Cost of Generation Results

Plant Type Assumptions (Select)

Financial (Ownership) Assumptions (Select) Merchant Fossil

Ownership Type For Scenarios Merchant

General Assumptions (Select) Default

Base Year (All Costs In 2009 Dollars) 2009

Fuel Type (Accept Default) Natural Gas

Data SourceAspen 5-23-09

Start (Inservice) Year (Enter) 2009

Natural Gas Price Forecast (Select) CA Average

Plant Site Region (Air & Water) (Select) CA - Avg.

Study Perspective (Select) To Delivery Point

Reported Construction Cost Basis (Select) Instant

Plant Capacity & Energy DataEffective

Capacity

(MW)

Gross Capacity (MW) 550.00 550.00Plant Losses 2.90%Net Capacity (MW) - Plant Side 534.05 534.05Transformer Losses 0.50%Net Capacity (MW) - Transmission Side 531.38 531.38

Transmission Losses 2.09%

Delivered Capacity (MW) 520.3 520.27Annual Capacity Degradation Rate 0.24%

STUDY PERSPECTIVE 520.27 520.27

Operational Performance Data Hours/Yr

Average Percent Output 100.00%Planned Percent of Year Operational 71.6% 6,273

Number Of Annual Starts 25Scheduled Outage Hours

OR Scheduled Outage Factor 6.02%

Modeled Scheduled Outage Factor 6.0% 527

Final Planned Operational Hours 6,273Forced Outage Rate (FOR) 2.24% 141

Operational (Service) Hours Per Year 6,132

Total Operating Hours Over Life Of Plant 122,640

Equivalent Availability Factor 91.87%

Net Capacity Factor (NCF) 70.00%


Turbines, Duct Firing

Do Not Enter Choices In Cells Below Shaded In Green. Use Cells On

Input-Output Worksheet To Enter Cases & Scenarios.

Fuel Use

California Energy Commission 1/22/2014 11:22 PM


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Annual Average Heat Rate (HHV)Adjusted for Capacity Factor 7,050 Btu/kWh

Adjusted Net Of Startup 7,039 Btu/kWh

Annual Heat Rate Degradation 0.24%

Fuel Consumption/Hour 3,871 MMBtu/HrStart Up Fuel Use 1,540 MMBtu/StartAverage Annual Fuel Use 23,776,830 MMBtu

Key InputsPlant Type AssumptionsFinancial AssumptionsGeneral Assumptions



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All Costs Are In Base Year Dollars

Base Year For Cost Data

Results SummaryFixed Costs

Variable Costs

Energy Costs (Incl . in Var. Costs)

Total Levelized Costs ($/MWh)

Capital Costs $/kW

Instant Cost (2009 Dollars)

Installed Cost (2009 Dollars)

Equity

DebtDiscount Rate (WACC)

Average

Annual

Energy

(GWh) Inflation Rate From Base Yr. To Start Yr.

3321.45 Inflation Rate From Start Year ForwardDebt Coverage Ratio - Minimum

3225.13 Debt Coverage Ratio - AverageLoan/Debt Term (Years)

3209.00 Equipment Life (Years):

Economic/Book Life (Years)

3141.93 Federal Tax Life (Years)State Tax Life (Years)

3141.93

Tax Information

Federal Tax =

CA State Tax =Total Tax Rate =

CA Avg. Ad Valorem Tax =Municipal in-lieu payment of property taxes

CA Sales Tax =

Tax & Production IncentivesEligible For BEITC

ITC Expiration

Eligible For Geothermal Depletion Allowance

Eligible For REPTC

PTC Expiration

Eligible For REPI

Efficiency REPI Expiration

Financial Information



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Business Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC)

48.4% BETC Limit ($)48.5% BETC Depreciation Adjustment

BETC Limit (% Of Remaining Taxes) BETC Calculation

Geothermal Depletion Allowance Percentage Depletion Limit (% Of Remaining Taxes)

Renewable Energy Production Tax Credit (REPTC) Duration REPTC Base Year REPTC In Start Year $/kWh

REPI Tier REPI Tier I Proportion Paid REPI Tier II Proportion Paid REPI Duration

REPI Base Year REPI In Start Year $/kWh

California Property Tax Solar CreditCalifornia Solar Initiative $/kWh CSI Duration (years)

Solar installed capacity forecast at time of constructionCalifornia Self-Generation Incentive Program



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2009

$45.32

$76.85

$67.45

$122.17

$1,078

$1,256

Capital Structure Cost of Capital

60.0% 14.47%

40.0% 7.49%10.46% 8.76%

1.76%

1.56%1.51.81220 12/31/2028

20

2020

35.0%

8.84%40.7%

1.10%Y

7.94%

Y

N

Y

N



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N

100%$0

N

N

0.000

19%18%

0.000

50 MW/kW



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Cost of Gener

Instant Capital Costs ($) Capital Constru

Financial Transaction Costs 0.0% Escalation in Capital Costs

Component Cost AFUDC Rate

Total Overnight Cost $561,550,000 Co

2004 (-5)2005 (-4)

2006 (-3)

2007 (-2)$0 2008 (-1)

2009 (0)

Total Component Cost $561,550,000 $584,948

Land Costs INPUT OVERRIDE

Acreage/MW Installed Cost (2009 Dollars)Acreage/Plant 25.00 Instant Cost (2009 Dollars)Additional Occupied Acreage Installed Cost (2009 Dollars)

Total Acres 25 Instant Cost (2009 Dollars)Cost Per Acre Installed Cost (2009 Dollars)

Acquisition Cost $0

Land Prep Costs/Acre Source Color Coding

Total Land Prep Costs $0 Plant Type Assumptions

Total Land Costs $0 Financial Assumptions

Development Costs General Assumptions Predevelopment Expenses Overhaul Calcs

Construction Insurance & Installation

Commitment Fee All Costs Are In Base

Total Development Costs $0 Unless otherwise note

Permitting Costs Base Year For Cost Da Local Building Permits

Environmental Permits $5,500,000 Study Perspective = To Emission Reduction Credits Costs $25,769,895

Total Permitting Costs $31,269,895

Interconnection Costs (Linears)

All connection costs

Transmission interconnection

Fuel / water / sewer costsTotal Interconnection Costs $0

Air Emission Controls Installation Costs $0

Total Air Emission Controls Costs $0

Water Treatment & Cooling Controls

Installation Costs $0Total Water Treatment & Cooling Controls Costs $0Total Environmental Controls Costs $0

Total Component Cost $561,550,000

INPUT OVERRIDE CAPITAL COST - InstantDEFAULT TOTAL CAPITAL COST - Instant $592,819,895

Environmental Impacts/Discharges

Air Emissions (Lbs/MWh) Tons/Yr $NOx 0.0760 122.55

VOC/ROG 0.3150 507.96

CO 0 0180 29 03

Emissions Fixe

Year

Capital Costs (N


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Cost of Genera

CO2 825.3750 1,330,970H2S 0.00

CH4NH3

SOx 0.009 14.51PM10 0.0420 67.73Air Emission Costs

Water Discharges[List of Pollutants]


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Cost of Gene

Maintenance Cost Detail Envi

Hours/Year Wages ROUTINE MAINTENANCE Medi

$164,282 Consumable Maintenance Costs Air E

2,080 $34.95 Period Or Units For Consumable Maintenance Costs Year Capit

2,080 $37.86 Oil Consumption Per Period (Gal) Con2,080 $29.28 Oil Price ($/Gal) Inst

2,080 $26.91 Oil Cost $0.00 AnnuConsumables Per Period (Filters Etc.) ($) Rep

Consumables Cost $0 Com

Consumable Maintenance Labor Per Period (Hrs) CalConsumable Maintenance Labor $0 Ann

Ann

Total Consumable Maintenance Cost Per Period (Incl. Labor) $1,146,178.11 Tota


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Cost of Generat

Forced Outage Hours/Year 141 Hrs Of Labor 0 Parts CostsTotal Unscheduled Maintenance Costs $0

Total Annual Maintenance $8,667,076 $/kW-yr $15.76

$/MWh $2.76


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1.763% Historical Inflation to escalate capital costs from Base Year to Start Year

1.562% Forward Looking Inflation for Annual Operating Costs

5/30/2006 GDP IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR

Updated by J Klein 2/25/09 based on Provided by Chris Kavalec on December 12, 2008 to

Year Annual

Cumulative Average Cumulative Average

2002 1.68% 0.827 2.76% 0.83 2.77%

2003 1.86% 0.841 2.94% 0.84 2.92%

2004 2.73% 0.856 3.15% 0.86 2.96%

2005 2.81% 0.880 3.26% 0.89 2.99%

2006 2.80% 0.904 3.41% 0.91 3.06%

2007 2.53% 0.930 3.71% 0.94 3.32%

2008 4.90% 0.953 4.90% 0.98 1.76%

2009 1.76% 1.000 1.76% 1.00 1.76%

2010 1.49% 1.015 1.49% 1.015 1.49%

2011 1.61% 1.031 1.55% 1.03 1.55%

2012 1.52% 1.047 1.54% 1.05 1.54%2013 1.60% 1.064 1.55% 1.06 1.55%

2014 1.55% 1.080 1.55% 1.08 1.55%

2015 1.60% 1.097 1.56% 1.10 1.56%

2016 1.62% 1.115 1.57% 1.12 1.57%

2017 1.61% 1.133 1.57% 1.13 1.57%

2018 1.61% 1.151 1.58% 1.15 1.58%

2019 1.59% 1.170 1.58% 1.17 1.58%

2020 1.58% 1.188 1.58% 1.19 1.58%

2021 1.59% 1.207 1.58% 1.21 1.58%2022 1.58% 1.226 1.58% 1.23 1.58%2023 1.57% 1.245 1.58% 1.25 1.58%

2024 1.57% 1.265 1.58% 1.26 1.58%2025 1.54% 1.284 1.58% 1.28 1.58%2026 1.53% 1.304 1.57% 1.30 1.57%2027 1.51% 1.324 1.57% 1.32 1.57%2028 1.49% 1.343 1.57% 1.34 1.57%2029 1.49% 1.363 1.56% 1.36 1.56%2030 1.47% 1.383 1.56% 1.38 1.56%2031 1.47% 1.404 1.55% 1.40 1.55%2032 1.47% 1.424 1.55% 1.42 1.55%

2033 1.47% 1.445 1.55% 1.45 1.55%2034 1.47% 1.467 1.54% 1.47 1.54%2035 1.47% 1.488 1.54% 1.49 1.54%

2036 1.47% 1.510 1.54% 1.51 1.54%2037 1.47% 1.532 1.54% 1.53 1.54%2038 1.47% 1.555 1.53% 1.55 1.53%2039 1.47% 1.578 1.53% 1.58 1.53%2040 1.47% 1.601 1.53% 1.60 1.53%2041 1.47% 1.624 1.53% 1.62 1.53%

2042 1.47% 1.648 1.53% 1.65 1.53%2043 1.47% 1.673 1.52% 1.67 1.52%2044 1.47% 1.697 1.52% 1.70 1.52%

From Start Year (2009)From Base Year (2009)


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2045 1.47% 1.722 1.52% 1.72 1.52%2046 1.47% 1.747 1.52% 1.75 1.52%

From: Lynn Marshall of CEC Demand Analysis OfficeYellow values are extrapolated by J Klein 6/11/06


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Ruben Tavares

Source Data My Calcs 2-9-2010

2009$=11980 45.75 0.4291981 47.26 0.443 3.29%

1982 47.28 0.443 0.05%

1983 49.17 0.461 3.98%1984 53.62 0.502 9.06%1985 56.70 0.531 5.75%1986 58.97 0.552 4.00%1987 62.55 0.586 6.06%1988 66.22 0.620 5.87%1989 69.05 0.647 4.28%1990 71.29 0.668 3.24%1991 73.88 0.692 3.63%

1992 75.65 0.709 2.40%1993 77.73 0.728 2.74%1994 79.49 0.745 2.27%

1995 80.89 0.758 1.76%1996 82.25 0.770 1.68%1997 83.45 0.782 1.46%1998 83.68 0.784 0.28%1999 84.29 0.790 0.73%2000 85.44 0.800 1.36%2001 86.73 0.812 1.51%2002 88.18 0.826 1.68%2003 89.82 0.841 1.86%

2004 92.28 0.864 2.73%2005 94.87 0.889 2.81%2006 97.53 0.914 2.80%

2007 100.00 0.937 2.53%2008 104.90 0.983 4.90%2009 106.75 1.000 1.76%2010 108.34 1.015 1.49%2011 110.08 1.031 1.61%2012 111.76 1.047 1.52%

2013 113.54 1.064 1.60%2014 115.30 1.080 1.55%2015 117.14 1.097 1.60%

CA GSP Index


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2016 119.04 1.115 1.62%2017 120.96 1.133 1.61%

2018 122.90 1.151 1.61%2019 124.86 1.170 1.59%2020 126.83 1.188 1.58%2021 128.85 1.207 1.59%

2022 130.88 1.226 1.58%2023 132.93 1.245 1.57%2024 135.02 1.265 1.57%

2025 137.10 1.284 1.54%2026 139.20 1.304 1.53%2027 141.29 1.324 1.51%2028 143.41 1.343 1.49%2029 145.54 1.363 1.49%2030 147.68 1.383 1.47%

Source: Moody's Economy.com11/17/2008

Provided by Chris Kavalec on December 12, 2008 to Ruben Tavares


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GDPDeflator Fuel Price GHG Price

$/Mmbtu $/CO2e ton Preliminary 2009 IEPR (F

2009 1.76% $6.56 $0.00Inflation

Rate PG&E SCE SDG&E

2010 1.49% $6.97 $0.00 2002 1.7%2011 1.61% $7.29 $0.00 2003 1.9%2012 1.52% $7.87 $0.00 2004 2.7%2013 1.60% $8.28 $0.00 2005 2.8%2014 1.55% $8.74 $0.00 2006 2.8% 6.58 6.58 6.582015 1.60% $9.01 $0.00 2007 2.5% 5.92 5.92 5.922016 1.62% $9.68 $0.00 2008 4.9% 6.51 6.51 6.51

2017 1.61% $10.20 $0.00 2009 1.8% 6.44 6.57 6.352018 1.61% $10.91 $0.00 2010 1.5% 7.01 6.88 6.622019 1.59% $11.78 $0.00 2011 1.6% 7.28 7.26 7.00

2020 1.58% $12.23 $0.00 2012 1.5% 7.92 7.77 7.502021 1.59% $12.66 $0.00 2013 1.6% 8.33 8.20 7.902022 1.58% $13.64 $0.00 2014 1.5% 8.79 8.66 8.352023 1.57% $14.16 $0.00 2015 1.6% 9.15 8.88 8.462024 1.57% $14.77 $0.00 2016 1.6% 9.75 9.64 9.032025 1.54% $14.73 $0.00 2017 1.6% 10.35 10.08 9.622026 1.53% $15.35 $0.00 2018 1.6% 11.09 10.77 10.262027 1.51% $15.75 $0.00 2019 1.6% 12.02 11.60 11.02

2028 1.49% $16.15 $0.00 2020 1.6% 12.46 12.06 11.462029 1.49% $16.80 $0.00 2021 1.6% 12.85 12.52 11.902030 1.47% $17.46 $0.00 2022 1.6% 13.81 13.52 12.862031 1.47% $18.08 $0.00 2023 1.6% 14.35 14.02 13.34

2032 1.47% $18.73 $0.00 2024 1.6% 14.95 14.64 13.952033 1.47% $19.33 $0.00 2025 1.5% 14.90 14.59 13.902034 1.47% $19.95 $0.00 2026 1.5% 15.51 15.22 14.512035 1.47% $20.57 $0.00 2027 1.5% 15.92 15.62 14.882036 1.47% $21.27 $0.00 2028 1.5% 16.34 16.02 15.242037 1.47% $21.98 $0.00 2029 1.5% 16.98 16.66 15.862038 1.47% $22.72 $0.00 2030 1.5% 17.64 17.32 16.50

2039 1.47% $23.50 $0.00 2031 1.5% 18.25 17.95 17.102040 1.47% $24.30 $0.00 2032 1.5% 18.90 18.60 17.722041 1.47% $25.12 $0.00 2033 1.5% 19.50 19.21 18.302042 1.47% $25.96 $0.00 2034 1.5% 20.12 19.83 18.892043 1.47% $26.82 $0.00 2035 1.5% 20.73 20.45 19.482044 1.47% $27.72 $0.00 2036 1.5% 21.43 21.15 20.15

2045 1.47% $28.65 $0.00 2037 1.5% 22.13 21.86 20.832046 1.47% $29.61 $0.00 2038 1.5% 22.87 22.60 21.542047 1.47% $30.61 $0.00 2039 1.5% 23.65 23.39 22.29

2048 1.47% $31.64 $0.00 2040 1.5% 24.44 24.20 23.062049 1.47% $32.70 $0.00 2041 1.5% 25.25 25.02 23.842050 1.47% $33.80 $0.00 2042 1.5% 26.09 25.86 24.652051 1.47% $34.93 $0.00 2043 1.5% 26.94 26.73 25.482052 1.47% $36.10 $0.00 2044 1.5% 27.83 27.63 26.34


33/731

2053 1.47% $37.31 $0.00 2045 1.5% 28.75 28.56 27.23

2054 1.47% $38.57 $0.00 2046 1.5% 29.70 29.53 28.16

2055 $39.86 $0.00 2047 1.5% 30.69 30.54 29.122056 $41.20 $0.00 2048 1.5% 31.71 31.57 30.112057 $42.58 $0.00 2049 1.5% 32.76 32.65 31.132058 $44.01 $0.00 2050 1.5% 33.85 33.75 32.19

2059 $45.49 $0.00 2051 1.5% 34.97 34.90 33.282060 $47.02 $0.00 2052 1.5% 36.12 36.08 34.41

2061 $48.59 $0.00 2053 1.5% 37.32 37.30 35.582062 $50.22 $0.00 2054 1.5% 38.55 38.56 36.782063 $51.91 $0.00 2055 1.5% 39.83 39.87 38.032064 $53.65 $0.00 2056 1.5% 41.15 41.22 39.33

2057 1.5% 42.52 42.62 40.662058 1.5% 43.92 44.06 42.042059 1.5% 45.38 45.56 43.472060 1.5% 46.88 47.10 44.952061 1.5% 48.43 48.70 46.47

2062 1.5% 50.04 50.35 48.05

2063 1.5% 51.70 52.05 49.68Fuel Price Multiplier 1 2064 1.5% 53.41 53.82 51.372065 1.5% 55.18 55.64 53.112066 1.5% 57.01 57.53 54.922067 1.5% 58.89 59.48 56.782068 1.5% 60.85 61.49 58.712069 1.5% 62.86 63.58 60.702070 1.5% 64.94 65.73 62.762071 1.5% 67.10 67.96 64.892072 1.5% 69.32 70.26 67.10

2073 1.5% 71.61 72.64 69.382074 1.5% 73.99 75.10 71.732075 1.5% 76.44 77.65 74.17


34/731

inal 2007 IEPR) Gas Prices_2-25-09

SMUD LADWP IID CA AverageMid-rangeCA Avg.

High CAAverage

Low CAAverage Uranium

Mid-rangeUranium

6.58 6.58 6.58 6.58 6.58 8.96 5.41 0.54 0.545.92 5.92 5.92 5.92 5.92 8.00 4.80 0.63 0.636.51 6.51 6.51 6.51 6.51 8.74 5.22 0.75 0.75

6.52 6.80 6.80 6.56 6.56 9.13 4.74 0.63 0.637.13 7.06 7.06 6.97 6.97 9.86 4.74 0.65 0.657.35 7.44 7.44 7.29 7.29 10.45 4.75 0.68 0.68

8.09 7.97 7.97 7.87 7.87 11.39 4.95 0.72 0.728.48 8.38 8.38 8.28 8.28 12.10 5.06 0.75 0.758.93 8.86 8.86 8.74 8.74 12.88 5.21 0.79 0.799.32 9.03 9.03 9.01 9.01 13.36 5.26 0.82 0.829.82 9.78 9.78 9.68 9.68 14.44 5.55 0.85 0.85

10.44 10.30 10.30 10.20 10.20 15.32 5.76 0.88 0.8811.21 10.99 10.99 10.91 10.91 16.47 6.07 0.91 0.9112.18 11.82 11.82 11.78 11.78 17.86 6.46 0.94 0.94

12.61 12.29 12.29 12.23 12.23 18.63 6.63 0.97 0.9712.96 12.76 12.76 12.66 12.66 19.37 6.79 1.00 1.0013.91 13.76 13.76 13.64 13.64 20.95 7.24 1.02 1.0214.46 14.25 14.25 14.16 14.16 21.82 7.44 1.05 1.05

15.06 14.89 14.89 14.77 14.77 22.86 7.70 1.07 1.0715.01 14.84 14.84 14.73 14.73 22.86 7.61 1.10 1.1015.61 15.48 15.48 15.35 15.35 23.90 7.87 1.12 1.1216.03 15.88 15.88 15.75 15.75 24.60 8.01 1.15 1.1516.45 16.29 16.29 16.15 16.15 25.31 8.16 1.17 1.1717.09 16.94 16.94 16.80 16.80 26.39 8.43 1.20 1.2017.75 17.61 17.61 17.46 17.46 27.50 8.71 1.22 1.22

18.36 18.25 18.25 18.08 18.08 28.58 8.94 1.25 1.2519.01 18.91 18.91 18.73 18.73 29.69 9.19 1.28 1.2819.61 19.52 19.52 19.33 19.33 30.75 9.41 1.31 1.3120.23 20.15 20.15 19.95 19.95 31.84 9.64 1.34 1.3420.84 20.78 20.78 20.57 20.57 32.93 9.86 1.37 1.3721.53 21.49 21.49 21.27 21.27 34.15 10.12 1.40 1.40

22.24 22.21 22.21 21.98 21.98 35.39 10.38 1.43 1.4322.98 22.96 22.96 22.72 22.72 36.70 10.65 1.47 1.4723.76 23.76 23.76 23.50 23.50 38.08 10.94 1.50 1.50

24.55 24.58 24.58 24.30 24.30 39.50 11.23 1.53 1.5325.36 25.41 25.41 25.12 25.12 40.95 11.52 1.57 1.5726.19 26.26 26.26 25.96 25.96 42.46 11.81 1.61 1.6127.05 27.14 27.14 26.82 26.82 44.00 12.11 1.64 1.6427.93 28.05 28.05 27.72 27.72 45.61 12.42 1.68 1.68


35/731

28.85 29.00 29.00 28.65 28.65 47.28 12.74 1.72 1.72

29.80 29.98 29.98 29.61 29.61 49.03 13.07 1.76 1.76

30.78 30.99 30.99 30.61 30.61 50.83 13.41 1.80 1.8031.80 32.04 32.04 31.64 31.64 52.70 13.75 1.84 1.8432.85 33.13 33.13 32.70 32.70 54.64 14.11 1.88 1.8833.93 34.25 34.25 33.80 33.80 56.65 14.47 1.92 1.92

35.05 35.40 35.40 34.93 34.93 58.74 14.85 1.96 1.9636.20 36.60 36.60 36.10 36.10 60.89 15.23 2.01 2.01

37.39 37.83 37.83 37.31 37.31 63.13 15.62 2.05 2.0538.63 39.11 39.11 38.57 38.57 65.45 16.02 2.10 2.1039.90 40.43 40.43 39.86 39.86 67.86 16.44 2.15 2.1541.21 41.80 41.80 41.20 41.20 70.35 16.86 2.20 2.2042.57 43.21 43.21 42.58 42.58 72.94 17.30 2.25 2.2543.97 44.67 44.67 44.01 44.01 75.62 17.74 2.30 2.3045.42 46.18 46.18 45.49 45.49 78.40 18.20 2.35 2.3546.92 47.74 47.74 47.02 47.02 81.28 18.67 2.40 2.4048.46 49.36 49.36 48.59 48.59 84.27 19.15 2.46 2.46

50.06 51.02 51.02 50.22 50.22 87.37 19.64 2.51 2.51

51.71 52.75 52.75 51.91 51.91 90.58 20.15 2.57 2.5753.41 54.53 54.53 53.65 53.65 93.91 20.67 2.63 2.6355.17 56.37 56.37 55.45 55.45 97.36 21.20 2.69 2.6956.99 58.28 58.28 57.32 57.32 100.94 21.75 2.75 2.7558.86 60.24 60.24 59.24 59.24 104.65 22.31 2.81 2.8160.80 62.28 62.28 61.23 61.23 108.50 22.89 2.88 2.8862.81 64.38 64.38 63.28 63.28 112.49 23.48 2.94 2.9464.88 66.56 66.56 65.41 65.41 116.62 24.08 3.01 3.0167.01 68.81 68.81 67.60 67.60 120.91 24.70 3.08 3.0869.22 71.13 71.13 69.87 69.87 125.35 25.34 3.15 3.15

71.50 73.54 73.54 72.22 72.22 129.96 25.99 3.22 3.2273.85 76.02 76.02 74.64 74.64 134.74 26.66 3.29 3.2976.29 78.59 78.59 77.15 77.15 139.69 27.35 3.36 3.36


36/731

HighUranium

LowUranium

GassifiedCoal

Mid-Range

GassifiedCoal

High

GassifiedCoal

Low

GassifiedCoal Solar Steam

0.54 0.54 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.550.63 0.63 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.470.75 0.75 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68

0.74 0.53 1.80 1.80 3.13 1.310.74 0.57 2.10 2.10 3.65 1.530.78 0.59 2.15 2.15 3.74 1.57

0.83 0.62 2.20 2.20 3.82 1.600.87 0.64 2.24 2.24 3.90 1.640.92 0.67 2.29 2.29 3.99 1.670.94 0.69 2.34 2.34 4.07 1.710.96 0.73 2.39 2.39 4.15 1.740.99 0.76 2.43 2.43 4.23 1.781.01 0.80 2.48 2.48 4.31 1.811.04 0.84 2.52 2.52 4.39 1.84

1.06 0.88 2.57 2.57 4.47 1.881.10 0.89 2.61 2.61 4.55 1.911.14 0.90 2.66 2.66 4.62 1.941.17 0.91 2.70 2.70 4.70 1.97

1.21 0.93 2.75 2.75 4.78 2.001.25 0.94 2.79 2.79 4.85 2.041.29 0.95 2.84 2.84 4.95 2.081.33 0.96 2.90 2.90 5.04 2.111.36 0.98 2.95 2.95 5.14 2.161.40 0.99 3.01 3.01 5.23 2.201.44 1.00 3.06 3.06 5.33 2.24

1.49 1.02 3.12 3.12 5.42 2.271.54 1.03 3.17 3.17 5.52 2.311.58 1.05 3.23 3.23 5.62 2.361.63 1.06 3.29 3.29 5.72 2.401.68 1.07 3.35 3.35 5.82 2.441.73 1.09 3.41 3.41 5.93 2.49

1.78 1.10 3.47 3.47 6.04 2.531.84 1.12 3.53 3.53 6.14 2.581.89 1.13 3.60 3.60 6.26 2.62

1.95 1.15 3.66 3.66 6.37 2.672.01 1.17 3.73 3.73 6.48 2.722.07 1.18 3.79 3.79 6.60 2.772.13 1.20 3.86 3.86 6.72 2.822.20 1.21 3.93 3.93 6.84 2.87


37/731

2.26 1.23 4.00 4.00 6.96 2.92

2.33 1.25 4.08 4.08 7.09 2.97

2.40 1.27 4.15 4.15 7.22 3.032.47 1.28 4.22 4.22 7.35 3.082.55 1.30 4.30 4.30 7.48 3.142.63 1.32 4.38 4.38 7.62 3.20

2.71 1.34 4.46 4.46 7.75 3.252.79 1.35 4.54 4.54 7.90 3.31

2.87 1.37 4.62 4.62 8.04 3.372.96 1.39 4.70 4.70 8.18 3.433.05 1.41 4.79 4.79 8.33 3.503.14 1.43 4.87 4.87 8.48 3.563.24 1.45 4.96 4.96 8.63 3.623.33 1.47 5.05 5.05 8.79 3.693.43 1.49 5.14 5.14 8.95 3.753.54 1.51 5.24 5.24 9.11 3.823.65 1.53 5.33 5.33 9.28 3.89

3.76 1.55 5.43 5.43 9.44 3.96

3.87 1.57 5.53 5.53 9.61 4.033.99 1.59 5.63 5.63 9.79 4.114.11 1.62 5.73 5.73 9.97 4.184.23 1.64 5.83 5.83 10.15 4.264.36 1.66 5.94 5.94 10.33 4.334.49 1.68 6.04 6.04 10.52 4.414.63 1.71 6.15 6.15 10.71 4.494.77 1.73 6.26 6.26 10.90 4.574.91 1.75 6.38 6.38 11.10 4.665.06 1.78 6.49 6.49 11.30 4.74

5.21 1.80 6.61 6.61 11.50 4.835.37 1.83 6.73 6.73 11.71 4.915.53 1.85 6.85 6.85 11.92 5.00


38/731

Hydro Tidal Wind Methane Manure BiomassBiomass

HighBiomass

High

$2.00 $2.00 $3.00$2.04 $2.04 $2.55$2.08 $2.08 $2.60

$2.12 $2.12 $2.65$2.16 $2.16 $2.70$2.20 $2.20 $2.75$2.24 $2.24 $2.80$2.28 $2.28 $2.85$2.33 $2.33 $2.91$2.37 $2.37 $2.96$2.41 $2.41 $3.02

$2.46 $2.46 $3.08$2.51 $2.51 $3.13$2.55 $2.55 $3.19$2.60 $2.60 $3.25

$2.65 $2.65 $3.32$2.70 $2.70 $3.38$2.75 $2.75 $3.44$2.81 $2.81 $3.51$2.86 $2.86 $3.58$2.91 $2.91 $3.64$2.97 $2.97 $3.71

$3.03 $3.03 $3.78$3.08 $3.08 $3.86$3.14 $3.14 $3.93$3.20 $3.20 $4.00$3.26 $3.26 $4.08$3.33 $3.33 $4.16

$3.39 $3.39 $4.24$3.45 $3.45 $4.32$3.52 $3.52 $4.40

$3.59 $3.59 $4.48$3.65 $3.65 $4.57$3.72 $3.72 $4.65$3.79 $3.79 $4.74$3.87 $3.87 $4.83


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$3.94 $3.94 $4.92

$4.01 $4.01 $5.02

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

GasPrices($/mm

Btu)

Preliminary 2007 IEPR Gas Prices

PG&E

SCE

SDG&E

SMUD

LADWP

IID

CA Average


40/731

BiomassLow

No

CarbonPrice

Carbon

PriceLow

Carbon

PriceHigh

$0.00 $5.00 $60.00$0.00 $5.00 $60.00$0.00 $5.00 $60.00$0.00 $5.00 $60.00$0.00 $5.00 $60.00$0.00 $5.00 $60.00$0.00 $5.00 $60.00

$1.75 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.53 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.56 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00

$1.59 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.62 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.65 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.68 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.71 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.74 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.78 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.81 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00

$1.85 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.88 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.92 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.95 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00

$1.99 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.03 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.07 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.11 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.15 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.19 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.23 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00

$2.27 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.31 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.36 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.40 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.45 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.49 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00

$2.54 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.59 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.64 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00

$2.69 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.74 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.79 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.85 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.90 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00


41/731

$2.95 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00

$3.01 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00

2036 2041


42/731

2009 Dollars

PG&E SCE SDG&E SMUD LADWP IIDCA -Avg.

2002 0.832003 0.842004 0.862005 0.892006 0.91 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.202007 0.94 6.32 6.32 6.32 6.32 6.32 6.32 6.322008 0.98 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62

2009 1.00 6.44 6.57 6.35 6.52 6.80 6.80 6.562010 1.01 6.91 6.78 6.53 7.03 6.96 6.96 6.872011 1.03 7.06 7.04 6.78 7.13 7.22 7.22 7.07

2012 1.05 7.57 7.43 7.17 7.73 7.62 7.62 7.522013 1.06 7.83 7.71 7.43 7.97 7.88 7.88 7.792014 1.08 8.14 8.02 7.73 8.27 8.20 8.20 8.102015 1.10 8.34 8.09 7.71 8.50 8.23 8.23 8.212016 1.12 8.74 8.64 8.10 8.81 8.77 8.77 8.682017 1.13 9.13 8.90 8.49 9.22 9.09 9.09 9.012018 1.15 9.63 9.35 8.91 9.74 9.55 9.55 9.482019 1.17 10.28 9.91 9.42 10.41 10.10 10.10 10.07

2020 1.19 10.48 10.15 9.64 10.61 10.34 10.34 10.292021 1.21 10.64 10.37 9.86 10.74 10.57 10.57 10.492022 1.23 11.26 11.03 10.49 11.35 11.22 11.22 11.132023 1.25 11.52 11.26 10.72 11.62 11.45 11.45 11.37

2024 1.26 11.82 11.58 11.03 11.91 11.77 11.77 11.682025 1.28 11.61 11.36 10.83 11.69 11.56 11.56 11.472026 1.30 11.89 11.67 11.13 11.97 11.88 11.88 11.772027 1.32 12.03 11.80 11.24 12.11 12.00 12.00 11.902028 1.34 12.16 11.93 11.35 12.24 12.12 12.12 12.022029 1.36 12.45 12.22 11.63 12.54 12.43 12.43 12.322030 1.38 12.75 12.52 11.92 12.83 12.73 12.73 12.62

2031 1.40 13.00 12.79 12.18 13.08 13.00 13.00 12.882032 1.42 13.27 13.06 12.44 13.34 13.27 13.27 13.152033 1.45 13.49 13.29 12.66 13.57 13.51 13.51 13.382034 1.47 13.72 13.52 12.88 13.79 13.74 13.74 13.602035 1.49 13.93 13.74 13.09 14.00 13.96 13.96 13.822036 1.51 14.19 14.01 13.34 14.26 14.23 14.23 14.08

2037 1.53 14.44 14.27 13.59 14.51 14.49 14.49 14.342038 1.55 14.71 14.54 13.85 14.78 14.77 14.77 14.612039 1.58 14.99 14.83 14.13 15.06 15.06 15.06 14.90

2040 1.60 15.27 15.11 14.40 15.34 15.35 15.35 15.182041 1.62 15.55 15.40 14.68 15.61 15.64 15.64 15.462042 1.65 15.83 15.69 14.96 15.89 15.93 15.93 15.752043 1.67 16.11 15.98 15.23 16.17 16.23 16.23 16.042044 1.70 16.40 16.28 15.52 16.46 16.53 16.53 16.33

Natural Gas Utility Service Area - Constant


43/731

2045 1.72 16.69 16.59 15.81 16.75 16.84 16.84 16.63


44/731


45/731


46/731


47/731


48/731

Levelized 2009 NPV

Total Levelized Cash Flow Income $/kW-Yr $727.67 $6,007Generation GWh 3,321.572 27,418.7

Capacity Contract Price $/MWh $42.92 $354

Tolled Fuel Price $/MWh $77.89 $643Revenue $MM $400.22 $3,304Revenue $/kW-Yr $727.67 $6,007

Fixed O&M Costs $/kW-Yr $9.52 $79BOE Property Tax Depreciation Factor

Ad Valorem $/kW-Yr $11.36 $94Insurance $/kW-Yr $8.35 $69

Fixed Operating Expense $29.23 $241

Fuel Price $/MMBtu

Fuel Price Truncated $/MMBtu $9.67 $80

Fuel Use MMBtu 23,776,830 196,271,637Fuel Costs $/kW-Yr $418.13 $3,452GHG Emission Permit Price $/CO2e ton

GHG Emission Rate CO2e lbs/MWH

GHG Emission Permit Costs $/kW-Yr Var O&M Costs $/kW-Yr $20.88 $172

Variable Operating Expense $/kW-Yr $439.01 $3,624Transmission Service $/kW-Yr $29.74 $245

Total Operating Expense $/kW-Yr $497.98 $4,111Net Operating Income $/kW-Yr $229.69 $1,896

Book Depreciation

Principal $/kW-Yr $31.06 $256Interest $/kW-Yr $21.37 $176

Debt Payment $/kW-Yr $52.42 $433Debt Coverage Ratio

Spark Spread Btu/KWh

Spark Spread $MM $18,604.41 $153,575Assessed ValueAccumulated Depreciation $464.38 $3,833

Levelized Cashflow CalculationBefore Tax Income $/kW-Yr $229.69 $1,896

Computed State Taxes $/kW-Yr $12.35 $102 Tax Loss Carryforward

State Taxes $/kW-Yr $12.35 $102Sales Taxes $/kW $10.94 $90

CSI $/kW-Yr SGIP $/kW

Computed Federal Taxes $/kW-Yr $44.50 $367 Tax Loss Carryforward


49/731

Federal Taxes $/kW-Yr $44.50 $367

Tax Production Deduction Rate 50% of W-2 Wages

TDMA $/kW-Yr $0.19 $2Geothermal Depletion Allowance (GDA) $/kW-YrBEITC (Tax Credit) $/kW

REPTC (Tax Credit) $/kW-Yr REPTC (Tax Credit) PTC

REPI $/kW-YrTotal Taxes Net Credits & Incentives $/kW-Yr $56.84 $469

Net (After-Tax) Income $/kW-Yr $172.85 $1,427Net(After-Tax) Equity Income $753.76 -$753.76Equity Return on Investment $116.89 14.47%

$724.14Book Depreciation Rate 100.00%

Book Depreciation $62.81 $519

Fed Tax Depreciation Rate 100.00%

Fed Tax Depreciation $68.65 $567

State Tax Depreciation Rate 100.00%

State Tax Depreciation $68.67 $567

Fixed Debt (Principal) $/kW-Yr $31.06 $256Variable O&M $/MWh $3.46 $29Transmission Service $/MWh $4.93 $41(Initial calculations for tax credits only to avoid circular reference)

Tax On Return On Equity (for ITC & GDA) $74.99 $619

Difference Level ROE vs. Cash Flow -$14.41 -$119

Capital & Financing - Construction $/kW-Yr $172.85 $1,427Insurance $/kW-Yr $8.35

a orem - r .xe - r .Fuel & GHG Emissions Costs $/kW-Yr $418.13Variable O&M $/kW-Yr $20.88Transmission $/kW-Yr $29.74Corporate Taxes (W/Credits) $/kW-Yr $56.84

Levelized Revenue RequirementsFixed $/MWh $45.32 $374Variable $/MWh $81.75 $675Total $/MWh $127.08 $1,049

EBDITA $694.07 $5,729

YearsMACRS Tax Tables 3 100.00%

(Fiscal year convention) 5 100.00%7 100.00%

10 100.00%

15 100.00%20 100.00%

YearsMACRS Tax Tables 100.00% 3


50/731

(Mid-year convention) 5

7101520

TDMA Deduction Rate Schedule

State Tax Depreciation 150% Decl. Bal.

BOE Condition Percent Good Factor 10- 2006 (R-3 Survivor Curve) 15

20304050

Contract Price Escalation

FLAGS: LOOK FOR RED

BALANCING CHECKS: Look for "Error" in Col C

Confirm

BothRevenues OK $727.67minus Fixed O&M Costs $9.52

minus Property Taxes $11.36

minus Insurance $8.35minus Fuel $418.13

minus Variable O&M Costs $50.62

Equals Operating Income $229.69Fed State

Operating Income $229.69 $229.69 minus Interest Expense $21.37 $21.37 minus Depreciation $68.65 $68.67 minus Other Deductions $0.19

minus State Taxes $12.35

Equals Taxable Income $127.14 $139.66

Both

Operating Income $229.69 Minus Interest Expense $21.37 Minus Principal Repayments $31.06 Minus (state taxes + federal taxes) $56.84

Equals After tax cash flow (ROE) OK $120.42

Magnitude of Error if there is one:$14.41

Straight Line


Turbines, Duct Firing

Checking Al

Levelized $/kW-Yr


51/731

Uses What If: Data Table function Cash Flow OutputTarget: Net NPV(Invest - Return)

Initial Year Contract Price

Target: Net NPV(Invest - Return)Initial Yr Contract $/MWH 40% $50

41% $5142% $5344% $54

45% $5646% $5747% $5948% $6049% $6251% $6352% $6553% $6654% $68

55% $6956% $7158% $7259% $7360% $7561% $7662% $7864% $7965% $8166% $82

67% $8468% $85

69% $8771% $8872% $9073% $9174% $9375% $9476% $9578% $9779% $9880% $100

81% $10182% $10384% $10485% $10686% $10787% $10988% $11089% $11291% $11392% $115

93% $11694% $11895% $119


52/731

96% $120

98% $122100% $125

Revenue change/($/MWH)


53/731

1 1 1 1 1 1

1 2 3 4 5 6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$566.03 $587.30 $605.44 $634.30 $656.35 $680.523,372.600 3,364.525 3,356.470 3,348.433 3,340.416 3,332.419

38.72 39.30 39.93 40.53 41.18 41.8253.59 56.71 59.28 63.65 66.89 70.50

$311.31 $323.01 $332.99 $348.87 $361.00 $374.29566.03$ 587.30$ 605.44$ 634.30$ 656.35$ 680.52$

8.30 8.48 8.65 8.83 9.01 9.2097% 94% 91% 87% 84% 80%

13.38 13.23 13.06 12.74 12.54 12.187.54 7.66 7.77 7.90 8.02 8.14

$29.22 $29.36 $29.49 $29.46 $29.57 $29.53

$6.56 $6.97 $7.29 $7.87 $8.28 $8.74

$6.56 $6.97 $7.29 $7.87 $8.28 $8.74

23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830$283.71 $301.21 $315.24 $340.14 $357.99 $378.02

825 827 829 831 833 835

$18.52 $18.86 $19.20 $19.55 $19.91 $20.27

$302.23 $320.07 $334.44 $359.69 $377.90 $398.2926.368 26.849 27.339 27.838 28.346 28.863

357.82 376.27 391.27 416.99 435.82 456.68$208.20 $211.02 $214.18 $217.31 $220.54 $223.84

$27.29 $29.33 $31.53 $33.89 $36.43 $39.16$37.65 $35.61 $33.41 $31.05 $28.51 $25.78

64.94 64.94 64.94 64.94 64.94 64.943.21 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45

7,015 6,712 6,521 6,141 5,932 5,710

$23,659 $22,583 $21,888 $20,563 $19,817 $19,027$1,256 $1,193 $1,131 $1,068 $1,005 $942

$63 $126 $188 $251 $314 $377

$208.20 $211.02 $214.18 $217.31 $220.54 $223.84

$6.75 $7.80 $8.85 $9.87 $10.88 $11.87

$6.75 $7.80 $8.85 $9.87 $10.88 $11.87$99.75

$24.31 $28.14 $31.89 $35.57 $39.20 $42.77


54/731

$24.31 $28.14 $31.89 $35.57 $39.20 $42.77

6% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%$1,066,138 $1,088,203 $1,110,725 $1,133,713 $1,157,177 $1,181,126

0.12 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19

$31.06 $35.94 $40.74 $45.45 $50.07 $54.64

177.15 175.08 173.44 171.87 170.46 169.20112.21 110.14 108.50 106.93 105.53 104.26

5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%

63 63 63 63 63 63

7.50% 6.93% 6.42% 5.94% 5.49% 5.08%

94 87 81 75 69 64

7.50% 6.94% 6.42% 5.94% 5.49% 5.08%

94 87 81 75 69 64

27.29 29.33 31.53 33.89 36.43 39.163.02 3.08 3.15 3.21 3.28 3.35 4.30 4.39 4.48 4.57 4.67 4.76

74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99

58.28 52.56 46.14 39.59 32.75 25.68

$177.15 $175.08 $173.44 $171.87 $170.46 $169.20$7.54 $7.66 $7.77 $7.90 $8.02 $8.14

. . . . . .. . . . . .$283.71 $301.21 $315.24 $340.14 $357.99 $378.02

$18.52 $18.86 $19.20 $19.55 $19.91 $20.27$26.37 $26.85 $27.34 $27.84 $28.35 $28.86$31.06 $35.94 $40.74 $45.45 $50.07 $54.64

$41.56 $42.08 $42.65 $43.20 $43.78 $44.35$54.78 $60.73 $63.33 $67.84 $71.11 $74.77$96.34 $102.81 $105.98 $111.04 $114.90 $119.13

271 337 403 469 535 601

66.66% 22.23% 11.12%40.00% 24.00% 14.40% 10.53% 11.07%28.56% 20.41% 14.58% 10.41% 8.51% 8.77%20.00% 16.00% 12.80% 10.24% 8.19% 6.56%

10.00% 9.01% 8.10% 7.29% 6.56% 5.91%7.50% 6.93% 6.42% 5.94% 5.49% 5.08%

1 2 3 4 5 633.33% 44.45% 14.81% 7.41%


55/731

20.00% 32.00% 19.20% 11.52% 11.52% 5.76%

14.29% 24.49% 17.49% 12.49% 8.93% 8.92%10.00% 18.00% 14.40% 11.52% 9.22% 7.37%5.00% 9.50% 8.55% 7.70% 6.93% 6.23%3.75% 7.22% 6.68% 6.18% 5.71% 5.29%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

3% 6% 6% 6% 9% 9%

7.50% 6.94% 6.42% 5.94% 5.49% 5.08%5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%

1 2 3 4 5 60.92 0.83 0.75 0.66 0.57 0.490.95 0.91 0.86 0.80 0.75 0.700.97 0.94 0.91 0.87 0.84 0.80

0.99 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.910.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.951.00 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97

1.76% 1.49% 1.61% 1.52% 1.60% 1.55%

Confirm

Both Both$124.86 Revenues Error $713.26$1.67 minus Fixed O&M Costs $9.52$1.99 minus Property Taxes $11.36$1.46 minus Insurance $8.35

$73.19 minus Fuel $418.13$8.86 minus Variable O&M Costs $50.62

$37.68 Equals Operating Income $215.28Fed State Fed

$37.68 $37.68 Operating Income $215.28$3.74 $3.74 minus Interest Expense $21.37

$12.02 $12.02 minus Depreciation $68.65 minus Other Deductions $0.19

$1.94 minus State Taxes $11.07

$19.96 $21.925 Equals Taxable Income $114.00

Both Both

$37.68 Operating Income $215.28$3.74 Minus Interest Expense $21.37$5.44 Minus Principal Repayments $31.06

$124.86 Minus (state taxes + federal taxes) Error $50.97

$19.59 Equals After tax cash flow (ROE) Error $111.88

($8.54)

Checking Alg

Levelized

orithm

Levelized $/MWh

Combined

Cycle


56/731

Installed $/kW NPV Equity Return$754 -$754

$92.31 $92.31

$1,069 1$1,032 2

$995 3$958 4

$921 5$884 6$847 7$810 8$772 9$735 10$698 11$661 12$624 13

$587 14$550 15$513 16$476 17$439 18$402 19$365 20$328 21$291 22$254 23

$216 24$179 25

$142 26$105 27

$68 28$31 29-$6 30 $92.31

-$43 31-$80 32

-$117 33-$154 34-$191 35

-$228 36-$265 37-$302 38-$339 39-$377 40-$414 41-$451 42-$488 43-$525 44-$562 45

-$599 46-$636 47-$673 48


57/731

-$710 49

-$747 50-$821 51

-$25.23


58/731

1 1 1 1 1 1 1

7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

$696.16 $729.69 $756.89 $792.12 $834.00 $858.18 $881.553,324.440 3,316.480 3,308.540 3,300.618 3,292.716 3,284.832 3,276.968

42.49 43.17 43.87 44.58 45.29 46.00 46.7372.69 77.84 81.95 87.42 94.02 97.69 101.22

$382.89 $401.33 $416.29 $435.66 $458.70 $472.00 $484.85696.16$ 729.69$ 756.89$ 792.12$ 834.00$ 858.18$ 881.55$

9.39 9.58 9.78 9.99 10.19 10.40 10.6277% 73% 69% 65% 61% 57% 53%

11.96 11.57 11.15 10.72 10.26 9.78 9.278.27 8.40 8.53 8.67 8.80 8.94 9.08

$29.62 $29.55 $29.47 $29.37 $29.25 $29.12 $28.97

$9.01 $9.68 $10.20 $10.91 $11.78 $12.23 $12.66

$9.01 $9.68 $10.20 $10.91 $11.78 $12.23 $12.66

23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830$389.32 $418.41 $441.11 $471.78 $509.09 $528.66 $547.34

837 839 841 843 845 847 849

$20.64 $21.02 $21.40 $21.79 $22.19 $22.60 $23.01

$409.97 $439.42 $462.51 $493.58 $531.28 $551.26 $570.3529.390 29.927 30.473 31.029 31.596 32.172 32.759

468.98 498.90 522.45 553.97 592.12 612.55 632.07$227.18 $230.79 $234.45 $238.15 $241.87 $245.63 $249.47

$42.09 $45.25 $48.64 $52.28 $56.20 $60.41$22.84 $19.69 $16.30 $12.66 $8.74 $4.53

64.94 64.94 64.94 64.94 64.94 64.943.50 3.55 3.61 3.67 3.72 3.78

5,637 5,334 5,145 4,891 4,609 4,512 4,430

$18,739 $17,690 $17,022 $16,144 $15,175 $14,820 $14,518$879 $817 $754 $691 $628 $565 $503$440 $503 $565 $628 $691 $754 $817

$227.18 $230.79 $234.45 $238.15 $241.87 $245.63 $249.47

$12.85 $13.71 $14.33 $14.98 $15.66 $16.36 $17.10

$12.85 $13.71 $14.33 $14.98 $15.66 $16.36 $17.10

$46.29 $49.56 $51.63 $54.00 $56.44 $58.97 $61.65


59/731

$46.29 $49.56 $51.63 $54.00 $56.44 $58.97 $61.65

9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%$1,205,571 $1,230,522 $1,255,990 $1,281,984 $1,308,517 $1,335,598 $1,363,241

0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22

$59.14 $63.27 $65.97 $68.99 $72.09 $75.33 $78.75

168.04 167.52 168.48 169.16 169.78 170.29 170.72103.10 102.58 103.54 104.22 104.84 105.36 170.72

5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%

63 63 63 63 63 63 63

4.70% 4.42% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46%

59 56 56 56 56 56 56

4.70% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46%

59 56 56 56 56 56 56

42.09 45.25 48.64 52.28 56.20 60.413.41 3.49 3.56 3.63 3.71 3.78 3.86 4.86 4.96 5.07 5.17 5.28 5.39 5.50

74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99

18.44 10.12 -0.70 -11.06 -21.30 -31.38 -150.90

$168.04 $167.52 $168.48 $169.16 $169.78 $170.29 $170.72$8.27 $8.40 $8.53 $8.67 $8.80 $8.94 $9.08

. . . . . . .. . . . . . .$389.32 $418.41 $441.11 $471.78 $509.09 $528.66 $547.34

$20.64 $21.02 $21.40 $21.79 $22.19 $22.60 $23.01$29.39 $29.93 $30.47 $31.03 $31.60 $32.17 $32.76$59.14 $63.27 $65.97 $68.99 $72.09 $75.33 $78.75

$44.95 $45.57 $46.20 $46.83 $47.46 $48.09 $48.74$76.91 $82.16 $86.30 $91.83 $98.53 $102.13 $105.57

$121.86 $127.73 $132.50 $138.66 $145.99 $150.23 $154.32

667 733 800 866 933 999 1066

8.75%6.55% 6.55% 6.56% 6.55%

5.90% 5.91% 5.90% 5.91% 5.90% 5.91% 5.90%4.70% 4.42% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46%

7 8 9 10 11 12 13


60/731

8.93% 4.46%6.55% 6.55% 6.56% 6.55% 3.28%5.90% 5.90% 5.91% 5.90% 5.91% 5.90% 5.91%4.89% 4.52% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

4.70% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46%5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%

7 8 9 10 11 12 130.41 0.33 0.26 0.21 0.16 0.12 0.090.64 0.59 0.53 0.48 0.42 0.37 0.320.77 0.73 0.69 0.65 0.61 0.57 0.53

0.89 0.87 0.85 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.760.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.870.97 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.93

1.60% 1.62% 1.61% 1.61% 1.59% 1.58% 1.59%

State

$215.28$21.37$3.35

###########

$190.57

rithm vs. Income_Rev_Req

$/kW-Yr


61/731


62/731


63/731

1 1 1 1 1 1 1

14 15 16 17 18 19 20

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

$928.74 $955.71 $987.27 $990.02 $1,021.69 $1,043.98 $1,066.363,269.122 3,261.295 3,253.486 3,245.697 3,237.925 3,230.173 3,222.439

47.47 48.21 48.97 49.72 50.49 51.25 52.01108.78 112.96 117.93 118.04 123.06 126.51 129.99

$510.81 $525.64 $543.00 $544.51 $561.93 $574.19 $586.50928.74$ 955.71$ 987.27$ 990.02$ 1,021.69$ 1,043.98$ 1,066.36$ -$

10.84 11.06 11.29 11.52 11.76 12.01 12.2649% 45% 41% 37% 33% 30% 27% 24%

8.74 8.19 7.61 7.01 6.37 5.91 5.439.22 9.36 9.51 9.66 9.81 9.96 10.12

$28.80 $28.62 $28.41 $28.19 $27.95 $27.88 $27.80

$13.64 $14.16 $14.77 $14.73 $15.35 $15.75 $16.15 $16.80

$13.64 $14.16 $14.77 $14.73 $15.35 $15.75 $16.15

23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830$589.80 $612.00 $638.71 $636.63 $663.42 $680.84 $698.33

852 854 856 858 860 862 864

$23.43 $23.86 $24.29 $24.73 $25.19 $25.65 $26.11

$613.23 $635.86 $663.00 $661.36 $688.61 $706.49 $724.4433.357 33.966 34.586 35.218 35.860 36.515 37.181

675.39 698.44 726.00 724.77 752.42 770.88 789.42$253.35 $257.27 $261.27 $265.25 $269.27 $273.10 $276.94

4,180 4,094 3,988 4,066 3,966 3,926 3,889

$13,664 $13,353 $12,976 $13,198 $12,840 $12,682 $12,531$440 $377 $314 $251 $188 $126 $63 ($0)$879 $942 $1,005 $1,068 $1,131 $1,193 $1,256

$253.35 $257.27 $261.27 $265.25 $269.27 $273.10 $276.94

$17.45 $17.79 $18.15 $18.50 $18.85 $19.19 $19.53

$17.45 $17.79 $18.15 $18.50 $18.85 $19.19 $19.53

$62.88 $64.13 $65.40 $66.67 $67.95 $69.17 $70.36


64/731

$62.88 $64.13 $65.40 $66.67 $67.95 $69.17 $70.36

9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%$1,391,455 $1,420,253 $1,449,647 $1,479,650 $1,510,273 $1,541,530 $1,573,435

0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26

$80.32 $81.92 $83.54 $85.17 $86.80 $88.37 $89.89

173.03 175.35 177.72 180.08 182.47 184.73 187.05173.03 175.35 177.72 180.08 182.47 184.73 187.05

5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%

63 63 63 63 63 63 63

4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.47%

56 56 56 56 56 56 56

4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46%

56 56 56 56 56 56 56

3.94 4.02 4.11 4.19 4.28 4.37 4.46 5.61 5.73 5.85 5.97 6.09 6.22 6.35

74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99

-163.99 -177.10 -190.32 -203.49 -216.73 -229.75 -242.87

$173.03 $175.35 $177.72 $180.08 $182.47 $184.73 $187.05$9.22 $9.36 $9.51 $9.66 $9.81 $9.96 $10.12

. . . . . . .. . . . . . .$589.80 $612.00 $638.71 $636.63 $663.42 $680.84 $698.33

$23.43 $23.86 $24.29 $24.73 $25.19 $25.65 $26.11$33.36 $33.97 $34.59 $35.22 $35.86 $36.51 $37.18$80.32 $81.92 $83.54 $85.17 $86.80 $88.37 $89.89

$49.39 $50.04 $50.71 $51.37 $52.03 $52.69 $53.35$113.19 $117.25 $122.11 $121.94 $126.82 $130.06 $133.32$162.58 $167.30 $172.82 $173.30 $178.85 $182.75 $186.67

1133 1199 1266 1333 1400 1467 1533

5.91% 5.90%4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.47%

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


65/731

5.90% 5.91% 2.95%4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 2.23%

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46%5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210.06 0.04 0.010.28 0.24 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.11 0.10 0.080.49 0.45 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.27 0.24

0.74 0.72 0.69 0.67 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.570.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.760.92 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86

1.58% 1.57% 1.57% 1.54% 1.53% 1.51% 1.49% 1.49%


66/731


67/731


68/731

2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038

-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

21% 19% 16% 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5%

$17.46 $18.08 $18.73 $19.33 $19.95 $20.57 $21.27 $21.98 $22.72


69/731

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30


70/731

2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

0.05 0.03 0.010.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.05

0.54 0.51 0.48 0.46 0.43 0.40 0.38 0.35 0.330.74 0.73 0.71 0.69 0.67 0.65 0.63 0.61 0.590.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.76

1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47%


71/731


72/731


73/731

2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047

-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

3% 2%

$23.50 $24.30 $25.12 $25.96 $26.82 $27.72 $28.65 $29.61 $30.61


74/731

31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39


75/731

2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044

9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

0.03 0.02

0.31 0.28 0.27 0.24 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.170.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.47 0.45 0.43 0.410.75 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.69 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63

1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47%


76/731


77/731


78/731

2048

-$

$31.64


79/731

GDA

ITC

PTC

40


80/731

2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054

9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

0.15 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.020.39 0.37 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.30 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.240.62 0.60 0.58 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.52 0.50 0.49 0.47

1.47%


81/731


82/731


83/731


84/731


85/731

2055 2056 2057 2058 2059 2060 2061 2062 2063 2064

9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59

0.23 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.12 0.10

0.45 0.44 0.42 0.41 0.39 0.38 0.36 0.35 0.33 0.32


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2065 2066 2067 2068 2069 2070 2071 2072 2073 2074

9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69

0.09 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.010.31 0.30 0.28 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.21 0.20


91/731


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95/731

2075 2076 2077 2078 2079 2080 2081 2082 2083 2084

9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79

0.19 0.17 0.16 0.14 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.80 0.07 0.05


96/731


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2085 2086

9% 9%

80 81

0.04 0.02


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DO NOT DELETE COLUMS OR ROWS, USE DELETE KEY OR CLEAR CONTENTS COMMAND

Cell Name (DO NOT

CHANGE) Parameter

Combustion

Turbine - 49.9

MW

Combustion

Turbine - 100 MW

Source Reference Aspen 5-23-09 Aspen 5-23-09

BaseYr Base Year 2009 2009

FuelType Fuel Natural Gas Natural Gas

Plant SizeGrossMW Gross Capacity (MW) 49.9 100

SiteLoadPct Plant-side Uses & Losses % 3.40% 3.40%

AnnCapDegredationRate Annual capacity degradation rate 0.05% 0.05%

DebtTerm Loan/Debt Term 12 12BookLife Economic/Book Life 20 20FedTaxLife Federal Tax Life: 15 15StateTaxLife State Tax Life: 15 15

Fuel UseAvgHeatRate Heat Rate 9266 9266StartUpFuel Start up fuel use 139.72 280

AnnualStarts No. of annual starts 120 120

HeatRateDegredation Heat Rate Degradation 0.05% 0.05%

Construction Costs by YearYears Out from On-Line Date

Year0 Cost %/Year 0 100.0% 100.0%

Year1 Cost %/Year - 1 0.0% 0.0%Year2 Cost %/Year - 2 0% 0%Year3 Cost %/Year - 3 0% 0%Year4 Cost %/Year - 4 0% 0%

Year5 Cost %/Year - 5 0% 0%Years Out from On-Line Date 100% 100%

MonthYear0 Months under construction Yr 0 9 9

MonthYear1 Months under construction Yr -1 0 0



MonthYear4 Months under construction Yr -4 0 0MonthYear5 Months under construction Yr -5 0 0

Operational Info.PlannedPctYrOp Planned % of Year Operational 5.3% 5.2%

Reference Target Capacity Factor 5.0% 5.0%

AverageOutputPct Average Output During Operation 100% 100%

EquipLifeYears Equipment Life 20 20

MajorOverhaulInterval Overhaul Interval in Hrs 876 876SchdOutageHours eduled & Maintenance Outage Hours

EnterSchdOutageFactor Maintenance Outage 2.72% 3.18%ForcedOutageRate Forced Outage Hours/Year 5.56% 4.13%

Operations CostsFixedOMPerkWYrUserInput User Input Fixed O&M ($/kW-Yr)TotalVariableOMPerMWhUserIn User Input Var. O&M ($/MWh) $4.17 $4.17

Full Time Equivalent (FTE) Employees


186/731

ManagerFTE Managers 0.8 0.8

PlantOperatorFTE Plant Operators 2.3 2.3

MechanicsFTE Mechanics 0.6 0.6

LaborerFTE Laborers 0 0SupportStaffFTE Support Staff 0.5 0.5

Hours/Year

ManagerHrs ManagersPlantOperatorHrs Plant Operators 2,080 2,080MechanicsHrs Mechanics 2,080 2,080LaborerHrs Laborers 2,080 2,080SupportStaffHrs Support Staff 2,080 2,080

SalaryManagerSalary Managers $164,282 $164,282

PlantOperatorWage Plant Operators $34.95 $34.95

MechanicsWage Mechanics $37.86 $37.86LaborerWage Laborers $29.28 $29.28SupportStaffWage Support Staff $26.91 $26.91

Fixed O&M

InsurancePct Insurance = 0.60% 0.60%OverheadMultiplier Overhead Multiplier 1.5926 1.5926NonlaborFixedOM Non-labor Fixed O&M Costs inc. ODC $10.89 $10.89

Other Operating CostsWaterConsumptionAF Consumption (AF/MWh) 0.0011 0.0011

MakeUpWater Make Up Water

System Delivery CostsTransmissionLosses Transmission Losses 2.09% 2.09%TransServiceCostPerMW Transmission Serv $/MWWheelingChargesPerkWh CAISO Wheeling Charges $/MWH $4.30 $4.30SchedulerCosts Scheduler Costs $/MWH

Capital Cost DetailComponent Cost 1,277 1,204

ComponentCost1 Item 1 63,722,300 120,400,000ComponentCost2 Item 2

ComponentCost3 Item 3

ComponentCost4 Item 4

ComponentCost5 Item 5ComponentCost6 Item 6ComponentCost7 Item 7ComponentCost8 Item 8ComponentCost9 Item 9ComponentName1 Label for Item 1 Total Overnight C Total Overnight CoComponentName2 Label for Item 2

ComponentName3 Label for Item 3

ComponentName4 Label for Item 4ComponentName5 Label for Item 5ComponentName6 Label for Item 6ComponentName7 Label for Item 7ComponentName8 Label for Item 8ComponentName9 Label for Item 9

% Costs for MaterialsTechnology_Cost_Escalation Technology Cost Escalation

Financial Transaction Costs


187/731

Development Costs

PredevelopmentExpense Predevelopment ExpensesConstructionInsurance Construction Insurance & InstallationCommitmentFee Commitment Fee

Land CostsAcrePerMW Acreage/MW

AcrePerPlant Acreage/Plant 8.0 8.0AdditionalAcreage Additional Occupied Acreage

CostPerAcre Cost per AcreLandPrepCostPerAcre Land Prep Costs/Acre

Permitting CostsLocalBuildingPermitCost Local building permitsEnvironmenalPermitCost Environmental permits 400,000 2,000,000

Interconnection Costs

LinearsCost All connection costsTransmissionCost Transmission interconnectionFuelWaterSewerConnectionCos Fuel / water / sewer costs

Maintenance Cost Detail ($)Consumable Maintenance Costs

ConsumableMaintenancePeriod Consumables Period Year Year

OilConsumptionPerPeriod Oil per period

OilPrice Oil Price ($/gal.)ConsumablesCostPerPeriod Consumables CostConsumableLaborPerPeriod Consumables LaborTotalConsumableCostPerPerio Total Consumables Cost 0 0

Annual Maintenance CostsMaintenanceCost1 Maintenance Cost 1 69,462 139,203

MaintenanceCost2 Maintenance Cost 2




MaintenanceCost6 Maintenance Cost 6MaintenanceCost7 Maintenance Cost 7MaintenanceCost8 Maintenance Cost 8MaintenanceName1 Maintenance Cost Label 1 e & consumables ce & consumablesMaintenanceName2 Maintenance Cost Label 2MaintenanceName3 Maintenance Cost Label 3MaintenanceName4 Maintenance Cost Label 4MaintenanceName5 Maintenance Cost Label 5

MaintenanceName6 Maintenance Cost Label 6

MaintenanceName7 Maintenance Cost Label 7

WellField CostsWellFieldCostsAnnual WellField CostsWellCleanOut Well clean outWellPumpMaintenance Well pumps maintenanceWellChemicals Brine chemicalsWellMisc Misc.

Annual Routine MaintenanceMajor Overhauls

MajorOverhaulLabor Major Overhaul Labor


188/731

MajorOverhaulReplacementCos Major Overhaul Replacement

Minor OverhaulsMinorOverhaulItem1 Annual Cost Item 1

MinorOverhaulItem1Hrs Hrs to Item 1 Job:MinorOverhaulItem2 Annual Cost Item 2MinorOverhaulItem2Hrs Hrs to Item 2 Job:

MinorOverhaulItem3 Annual Cost Item 3 (incl labor)MinorOverhaulItem3Hrs Hrs to Item 3 Job:

Unscheduled MaintenanceUnschdMaintenancePartsCost Parts Costs

Environmental Control CostsMedia & Technology

Air EmissionsControl Technology (eg SCR)

AirControlInstallCost Installation CostAirControlAnnualLabor Annual LaborAirControlAnnualConsumables Annual ConsumablesAirControlReplacementCost Replacement Cost

AirControlComponentLife Component LifeWater CoolingControl Technology (eg wastewater)

WaterControlInstallCost Installation Cost

WaterControlAnnualLabor Annual Labor

WaterControlAnnualConsumabl Annual Consumables

WaterControlReplacementCost Replacement CostWaterControlComponentLife Component Life

Solid Waste DisposalNon hazardous material

NonHazardTonsPerYear Tons per YearNonHazardCollectionCost Collection and hauling ($/ton)NonHazardTippingCost Landfill tipping fees ($/ton)

Hazardous materialsHazardTonsPerYear Tons per Year

HazardCollectionCost Collection and hauling ($/ton)

HazardTippingCost Landfill tipping fees ($/ton)

Byproduct Revenues and CostsByproduct 1

Byproduct1LbsPerkW Annual production (units/kW)Byproduct1ProcessingCostPerL Processing costs ($/unit)Byproduct1ShippingCostPerLb Shipping costs ($/unit)Byproduct1RevenuesPerLb Revenues ($/unit)

Environmental Impacts/DischargesAir Emissions per MWH

LbsNOx NOx 0.279 0.279LbsVOC VOC/ROG 0.054 0.054LbsCO CO 0.368 0.368LbsCO2 CO2 1,080.2 1,080.2LbsH2S H2SLbsCH4 CH4LbsNH3 NH3LbsSOx SOx 0.013 0.013LbsPM10 PM10 0.134 0.134


189/731

Water DischargesWaterDischargeList [List of pollutants]

WaterDischargeThermal Thermal

WaterDischargeInstreamFlows Instream flowsTax Incentives

ApplyBETC Investment Tax Credit N N

BETCPct Investment Tax Credit PercentBETCDepreciation Tax Depreciation AdjustmentBETCExpires Investment Tax Credit Expiration

ApplyREPTC ewable Energy Production Tax Credit N NREPTC Energy Production Tax Credit Amount

REPTCBaseYr REPTC BaseYr

REPTCDuration nergy Production Tax Credit Duration

REPTCExpires REPTC Expiration Year

EligibleGeothermalDepletion e for Geothermal Depletion Allowance N NApplyGeothermalDepletion pply Geothermal Depletion Allowance N NGeothermalDepletionPct Geothermal Depletion Rate FactorGeothermalDepletionLimit eothermal Depletion Limit on Income

REPITier REPI TierREPI REPIREPIBaseYr REPI BaseYr

REPIDuration REPI Duration

REPIExpires REPI Expiration

SolarPropTax CA Solar Property Tax Exemption

CSI_PBI CA Solar Initiative PBICSIDuration CSI Duration (years)SGIPRebate SGIP Rebate $/kW

Legacy EntriesInstallation Costs

Derate FactorEquipment Life (Hours):

Labor Escalation CostReplacement Interval

Replacement Parts Labor (hrs)

Maintenance IntervalMaterials/Supplies

Labor (hrs) Oil Change Interval (hrs)

Oil Filter Price (hrs) Oil Capacity (gal.)

Oil Added per Day (gal.) Fuel Filter Interval

Fuel Filter Price Labor (hrs) Labor/day


190/731

Water Consumption (AF/year) Annual Air Consumables

Annual Water Consumables

Financing CostsEquity Fee

Title InsuranceSR Debt Arrangement Fee

Legal ClosingBanking Due Diligence Exp.

Insurance Consultant FeeService Time to Scheduled Outage (Hours)

Days per Schd. OutageService Time to Maintenance Outage (Hours)

Day per Main. Outage

Cost $/LbNOx

VOC/ROGCOCO2H2SCH4NH3

SOxPM10

Cost $/LbNOx

VOC/ROGCO

CO2

H2SCH4NH3SOx

PM10Water Supply 197 197Variable O&M 9.1419 9.1419


191/731

TO DELETE VALUES

Combustion

Turbine -

Advanced

Combined Cycle

Standard - 2 Turbines,

No Duct Firing

Combined Cycle

Standard - 2 Turbines,

Duct Firing

Combined Cycle

Advanced (H

Frame)Aspen 5-23-09 Aspen 5-23-09 Aspen 5-23-09 Aspen 5-23-09

2009 2009 2009 2009

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural Gas

200 500 550 8003.40% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%0.05% 0.24% 0.24% 0.24%

12 12 12 1220 20 20 2015 20 20 2015 20 20 20

8550 6940 7050 6,470560 1400 1540 2240120 25 25 25

0.05% 0.24% 0.24% 0.24%

75.0% 75% 75% 75%

25.0% 25% 25% 25%0% 0% 0% 0%0% 0% 0% 0%0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0%100% 100% 100% 100%12 12 12 12

3 12 12 120 0 0 00 0 0 0

0 0 0 00 0 0 0

10.4% 76.7% 71.6% 76.7%10.0% 75.0% 70.0% 75.0%

100% 100% 100% 100%20 20 20 20

876 14839 14839 14839

3.18% 6.02% 6.02% 6.02%4.13% 2.24% 2.24% 2.24%

$16.33 $7.17$3.67 $3.02 $3.02 $2.69


192/731

0.8 2.6 2.7 3.42.3 13.6 14.3 17.70.6 2.8 2.9 3.6

0 0.5 0.5 0.60.5 3.5 3.7 4.6

2,080 2,080 2,080 2,0802,080 2,080 2,080 2,0802,080 2,080 2,080 2,0802,080 2,080 2,080 2,080

$164,282 $164,282 $164,282 $164,282$34.95 $34.95 $34.95 $34.95

$37.86 $37.86 $37.86 $37.86$29.28 $29.28 $29.28 $29.28$26.91 $26.91 $26.91 $26.91

0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60%1.5926 1.5926 1.5926 1.5926$10.22 $2.13 $2.13 $1.85

0.0011 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009

2.09% 2.09% 2.09% 2.09%

$4.30 $4.30 $4.30 $4.30

801 1,044 1,021 957

160,200,000 522,000,000 561,550,000 765,600,000

0 0 0

Total Overnight Cost Total Overnight Cost Total Overnight Cost Total Overnight Cost


193/731

8.0 25.0 25.0 25.0

4,000,000 5,000,000 5,500,000 8,000,000

Year Year Year Year

0 1,116,407 1,146,178 1,786,252

495,133 7,325,550 7,520,898 10,422,567

ance & consumables Annual maintenance Annual maintenance Annual maintenance


194/731

0.099 0.070 0.076 0.0640.031 0.208 0.315 0.0180.190 0.024 0.018 0.056996.7 814.9 825.4 758.9

0.008 0.005 0.009 0.0050.062 0.037 0.042 0.031


195/731

N N N N

N N N N

N N N NN N N N

1222591.6

0.005

48


196/731

00

197 197 197 1979.1419 1.2058 1.2034 1.2058


197/731

Integrated

Gasification

Combined Cycle

(IGCC)

AP 1000 PWR

Nuclear

Biomass - Co-

gasification IGCC

(2018)

Biomass - Direct

Combustion W/

Fluidized Bed

Biomass - Direct

Combustion

W/Stoker BoilerKEMA 5-23-07 KEMA 5-23-08 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09

2009 2009 2009 2009 2009

Gassified Coal Uranium Biomass Biomass Biomass

300 960 30 28 386.00% 2.20% 3.50% 6.00% 4.00%0.05% 0.20% 0.05% 0.10% 0.10%

15 20 15 12 1220 40 20 20 2015 20 5 5 520 30 20 20 20

7580 10,400 10500 10500 11000

0.10% 0.20% 0.20% 0.15% 0.15%

80% 2% 75% 80% 80%

20% 2% 25% 20% 20%0% 6% 0% 0% 0%0% 14% 0% 0% 0%0% 20% 0% 0% 0%

0% 56% 0% 0% 0%100% 100% 100% 100% 100%12 12 12 12 1212 12 6 6 6

0 12 0 0 00 12 0 0 0

0 12 0 0 00 48 0 0 0

84.2% 88.9% 81.5% 92.4% 92.4%80.0% 86.5% 75.0% 85.0% 85.0%

100.0% 100% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%40 40 20 20 20

0 0 0 0 0

15.00% 11.12% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%5.00% 2.72% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00%

$52.35 $147.70 $150.00 $99.50 $160.10$9.57 $5.27 $4.00 $4.47 $6.98


198/731

0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60%

2.09% 2.09% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%39,000 $39,000 $39,000

$4.30 $4.30 $4.30 $4.30 $4.30

3,128 3,950 2,950 3,200 2,600

938,397,400 3,792,249,600 88,500,000 89,600,000 98,800,000

Total Overnight Co Total Overnight C Total Overnight Cost Total Overnight Co Total Overnight Cos


199/731

0 0 0 0 0


200/731

0.220 0.000 0.074 0.074 0.0750.009 0.000 0.009 0.009 0.012

0.079 0.000 0.029 0.079 0.105

153.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.063 0.000 0.020 0.020 0.034

0.031 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100


201/731

Y N Y Y Y

30% 30% 30% 30%15% 15% 15% 15%2014 2014 2014 2014

N N Y Y Y$0.001 $0.011 $0.010 $0.010 $0.0102006 2008 2008 2008 2008

10 8 10 10 102009 2013 2013 2013

N N N N NN N N N N

2 2 2$0.021 $0.021 $0.0212008 2008 2008

10 10 102017 2017 2017


202/731


203/731

Geothermal -

Binary

Geothermal -

Dual Flash Hydro - Small Scale Hydro - Upgrade

Ocean - Wave

(2018)KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09

2009 2009 2009 2009 2009

Steam Steam Hydro Hydro Tidal

15 30 15 80 405.00% 5.00% 10.00% 5.00% 1.00%4.00% 4.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.00%

20 20 20 20 2030 30 30 30 30

5 5 5 5 520 20 30 30 30

0% 0% 0% 0% 0.00%

40% 40% 100% 100% 100%

40% 40% 0% 0% 0%20% 20% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0%0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0%100% 100% 100% 100% 100%12 12 12 12 1212 12 0 0 12

6 6 0 00 0 0 0

0 0 0 00 0 0 0

92.3% 96.4% 32.0% 32.0% 91%90.0% 94.0% 30.4% 30.4% 26.0%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 30.2%30 30 30 30 30

0 0 0

4.00% 4.00% 9.40% 9.40% 9.40%2.50% 2.50% 5.10% 5.10% 5.10%

$47.44 $58.38 $17.57 $12.59 $36.00$4.55 $5.06 $3.48 $2.39 $12.00


204/731

0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60%

5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%$254,000 $254,000 $74,000

$4.30 $4.30 $4.30 $4.30 $4.30

4,046 3,676 1,730 771 2,587

60,690,000 110,280,000 25,950,000 61,680,000 $103,465,807

Total Overnight Total Overnight Co Total Overnight Cost Total Overnight CoTotal Overnight Cost


205/731


206/731

0.000 0.191 0.000 0.000 0.0000.000 0.011 0.000 0.000 0.0000.000 0.058 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.000 0.026 0.000 0.000 0.0000.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000


207/731

Y Y Y N Y

30% 30% 30% 30%15% 15% 15% 15%2014 2014 2014 2014

Y Y Y N Y$0.021 $0.021 $0.010 $0.0102008 2008 2008 200810 10 10

2013 2013 2013 2013

Y Y N N NY Y N N N

15% 15%50% 50%

1 1 1$0.021 $0.021 $0.0212008 2008 200810 10 10

2017 2017 2017

0 0

1 1260000 260000

0.005 0.005


208/731

25000 250000 00 0

250000 120000


209/731

Solar - Parabolic

Trough

Solar - Parabolic

Trough with

storage

Solar -

Photovoltaic

(Single Axis) Wind - Class 3/4 Wind - Class 5KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09

2009 2009 2009 2009 2009

Solar Solar Solar Wind Wind

250 250 25 50 10022.40% 29.40% 22.40% 0.10% 0.10%

0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 1.00% 1.00%

15 15 15 20 2020 20 20 30 30

5 5 5 5 520 20 20 30 30

0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

100% 100% 100% 95% 95%0% 0% 0% 5% 5%0% 0% 0% 0% 0%0% 0% 0% 0% 0%0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0%100% 100% 100% 100% 100%12 12 12 12 12

0 0 0 6 60 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0

32% 78% 32% 99% 99%27.0% 65.0% 27.0% 37.0% 42.0%

85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 38.3% 43.5%20 20 20 30 30

2.20% 2.20% 0.00% 1.39% 1.39%1.60% 1.60% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%

$68.00 $68.00 $68.00 $13.70 $13.70$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $5.50 $5.50

7/27/2019 CEC COG

cec cog model version 2.02-4!5!10

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