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cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg 1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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Page 1: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg 1

The Pernicious Impact of Climate

Change A call for action-

NOW!A

PresentationBy

Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS.Chairman

And Sanjay Gadhalay

CEO Center For Climate Change and Environment Advisory

Page 2: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg 2

Lets all pray to the god’s that we do not let down the future generations of inhabitants of this planet as responsible custodians in our avarice and greed to exploit what we

have on hand !

Page 3: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

“Earth has enough for everyone’s need

but not for everybody’s greed”

MAHATMA GANDHI

Page 4: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

An Overall Backgrounder

What you wanted to know but were afraid to ask!

Page 5: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

Stake holders

Environment and the world

I/Me /myself

Us/Our society /friends /interdependents

The Vexatious Carbon Cycle – Circle of life

Page 6: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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The Elusive “Kyoto Protocol”The Elusive “Kyoto Protocol”

The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC), an international environmental treaty with the goal of achieving stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

• The Kyoto Protocol establishes legally binding commitment for the reduction of four greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride), and two groups of gases (hydrofluorocarbons and per fluorocarbons) produced by "annex I" (industrialized) nations, as well as general commitments for all member countries.

• As of January 2009 183 parties have ratified the protocol, which was initially adopted for use on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and which entered into force on 16 February 2005.  

• Under Kyoto, 36 industrialized countries agreed to reduce their collective green house gas (GHG) emissions by 5.2% from the level in 1990.

Page 7: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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Kyoto…Kyoto…

• The reason for the lengthy time span between the terms of agreement being settled upon and the protocol being engaged( adopted for use on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and which entered into force on 16 February 2005.) was due to terms of Kyoto requiring at least 55 parties to ratify the agreement and for the total of those parties emissions to be at least 55% of global production of greenhouse gases.

Page 8: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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Kyoto…what do they want?Kyoto…what do they want?

• Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from 280ppm before the industrial revolution to around 387ppm today.

• Environmentalists say that any new global deal on climate must restrict the growth of CO2 levels to 450ppm, though more pessimistic scientists say that the world is heading for 550ppm or even 650ppm.

• The only way to get to 350ppm or below is not only to have major cuts in CO2 emissions but also to draw CO2 out of the atmosphere through measures.

Page 9: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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ChinaChina accounts for accounts for 16% of the total global 16% of the total global emissions annuallyemissions annually and and 3 tonnes per capita.3 tonnes per capita.

USUS @20% is comparable with China on an absolute @20% is comparable with China on an absolute level but its level but its per capita emissionsper capita emissions are are 20 tonnes20 tonnes. .

India'sIndia's contribution at @4% stands at a mere contribution at @4% stands at a mere 1.1 1.1 tonne per capitatonne per capita and a meagre 4% in absolute terms and a meagre 4% in absolute terms on an annual basis.on an annual basis.

Kyoto –relative shares of damage …

Page 10: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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Kyoto –Directive UNFCC Kyoto –Directive UNFCC

• UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidelines that developed countries

should cut emissions by 25-40 per cent from 1990 levels by 2020 to keep

temperatures below a 2 C rise. 

• Else it’s a Loose Loose game –with the developing countries being the most

effected !

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• India and China, which have ratified the Kyoto protocol, are not obligated to reduce greenhouse gas production at the moment as they are developing countries; i.e. they weren't seen as the main culprits for emissions during the period of industrialization thought to be the cause for the global warming of today

Page 12: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

Key issues in Climate Change

Environmental

Personal

Social

Page 13: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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Key issues in Climate Change • Air /Water/Soil /Forests

– Availability – Quality – Seasons /Monsoons – Natural Disasters

• Quality of life – Water – Food– Health – Infrastructure and Livelihood /vocational issues– Safety

• Social and Political issues – Education and Awareness defining attitude– Actions in Day to day Life

Page 14: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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AIR POLLUTIONWHAT IS THE IMPACT ON

YOU ?

Page 15: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

How the Poisons in the Air Affect You

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHS) :Unburnt from diesel engines. Cause drowsiness, eye irritation, cough and are suspected to be cancer causing. There is no such thing as a safety level for PAHs.

Lead:A toxic metal that’s present in normal petrol and in the air as fine particles. Can affect the central nervous system, cause renal damage and hypertension. Children are three times more at risk than adults.

Brain Kidney Entire body

Lungs Respiratory Tract Nose/Eyes

A Areas Affected

Carbon Monoxide:Colourless and odourless, it comes from petrol vehicles, mostly two and three wheelers. Reduces the ability of blood to carry oxygen. Exacerbates heart disorders.

Oxides of Nitrogen:Formed during fuel combustion in motor vehicles and power stations. Convert to nitrogen dioxide, which leads to bronchial infections, clods, headaches and eye irritation. A recent spurt in fibrosis cases in Mumbai has been traced to these pollutants.

Benzene: Cannot be seen, It’s part of unleaded petrol and is emitted from catalytic converters. A known carcinogen, it has been linked to lung cancer and leukemia and is said to damage the central nervous system. No safe limit: there just shouldn’t be any benzene around.

Sulphur dioxide:Colourless gas that is a part of diesel exhaust and factory emissions. Affects upper respiratory tract. Causes bronchial problems, nose blockage and a hacking cough.

Suspended Particulate Matter:Particles of dust and carbon, coated with toxic gases, all emanating from factory emissions and vehicle exhaust. They coat the lungs. Cause respiratory infections, persistent cough and throat irritation. Aggravate asthma.

Page 16: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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CHOKING ON DUSTLEVELS OF SUSPENDED PARTICULATE . MATTER IN MICRO GRAMS/CU.M

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500 DELHI

KANPUR

JAIPUR

AHMEDABAD

HYDERABAD

CALCUTTA

NAGPUR

MUMBAI

BANGALORE

CHENNAI

* NEERI Studies

Air quality in Urban Centres is a matter of concern in India. The graphs shows the status of major cities in India.

Page 17: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

Trends in Annual Average Concentration of SO2 in Residential areas of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata

Page 18: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

Trends in Annual Average concentration of NO2 in Residential Areas of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkota

Page 19: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

Trends in Annual Average concentration of RSPM in Residential Areas of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkota

Page 20: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

TOTAL HEALTH COST

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Page 21: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

PER CAPITA HEALTH COSTS

0

10

20

30

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Page 22: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

The dirty lungs of a patient from Delhi. The black spots shows deposition of carbon almost like a miner’s lung. It is as if people of Delhi are living in a mine. It shows that the person has been regularly inhaling polluted air with a lot of carbon particles which can come from burning of coal or from vehicular exhaust. In Delhi, diesel vehicles put out a lot of carbon soot and diesel use is nearly three times that of petrol. Damage to lungs, however, comes not so much from the carbon as much at it comes from exposure to sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and fine particles (less than 2.5 microns) which are present in diesel exhaust in a big way. If carbon from diesel exhaust is getting into the lungs as shown in this picture, then so are the deadly elements of diesel and petrol.

Page 23: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

•Diesel is more polluting than Petrol.

•Diesel pollutes through Nox, So2 and SPM. 95-100%

pollution comes from this.

•Particles of less than 1 micron in size emitted by diesel is

coated with highly Carcinogenic Polycyclic Aromatic

Hydrocarbons (PAH.)

The Dangers of Diesel usage

Page 24: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

Diseases Conclusively linked to Air pollution are :Hypertension, Renal (kidney) damage, Asthama, Cough, Increased heart disorders, Eye irritation, Disorder in Central Nervous System, Cancer,

Not much research is done on impacts ye but studies are planned .Indian Institute of Health and Family Welfare found soaring levels of lead around Hyderabad/Secunderabad/Cyberabad cities ranging between 17-32 microgram per decilitre. This will eventually impact and effect in lower IQ of children.

Page 25: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

Health costs due to ambient air pollution levels exceeding WHO guidelines in Indian

cities

Physicalimpacts

Costvaluation(million

US$)Premature deaths 40,351 170 - 1,615

Hospital and sickness requiringmedical treatment

19,800,00 25 - 50

Minor sicknesses (Includingrestricted activity days andrespiratory symptom days)

1,201,300,000 322 - 437

Total -- 517 - 2,102

Source: Carter Brandon and Kirsten Hommann. The Cost of Inaction;Valuing the Economy-wide Cost of Environmental Degradation inIndia, World Bank, Washington DC, mimeo.

Page 26: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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WATER QUALITY

Most of rivers, lakes in the country are polluted –

Sources of pollution are Industrial,Domestic, Agricultural runoff.

Available Water is deteriorating in quality due to:Biological contamination of surface water sources, Due to untreated or partially treated sewage, exceeds permissible limits at many locations. Overexploitation of ground-water,

Page 27: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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WATER QUALITY ..contd

Around 85 per cent of the rural population of the

country uses groundwater for drinking and

domestic purposes. High concentrations of

fluoride and arsenic in groundwater beyond the

permissible limits of 1.5 mg/l and 0.05 mg/l,

respectively poses health hazard.

In all, 19 states in India have been identified as

‘endemic’ areas for fluorosis, with an estimated 44

millions people impacted, and another 66 million

at risk. The scenario is the worst in the hard rock

terrain viz., granites.

Page 28: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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WATER QUALITY .contd 3

, Arsenic is a known carcinogen and is highly toxic.

It is perhaps the only human carcinogen for which there is adequate evidence of carcinogenic risk by both inhalation and ingestion (Centeno et al. 2002; Chen & Ahsan 2004). The occurrence of Arsenic in groundwater was first reported in 1980 in West Bengal in India. Apart from West Bengal, arsenic contamination in groundwater has been found in the states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and Assam. Arsenic in groundwater has been reported in 15 districts in Bihar, 9 district in Uttar Pradesh, 8 districts in West Bengal and one district each in Chhattisgarh and Assam

Page 29: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

HAVE A GLASS OF

WATER

IT CONTAINS TRACES OFTOXIC DICHLORO-DIPHENYL TRICHLOROETHANE (DDT) 203.00 ng/lTOXIC BENZENE HEXA CHLORIDE (BHC)218.83 ng/lTOXIC DIELDRIN 30.44 ng/l; CHROMIUM 0.01 ng/lTOXIC ENDOESULFAN 51.30 ng/l

IRON 8.20 ng/l; NICKEL 0.02 ng/l; ZINC 0.60 ng/l; CADMIUM 0.01 ng/l

Do you still want to have a glass of water

80% of the diseases are water born but pitiably Sewage is treated partially in only 3-5 tons in A.P. waterstress is increasing due to wasteful water use, ground water depletion, pollution and improper re-charging & harvesting schemes. This water famine/stress will double in next 30 years.

Page 30: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

Annual Soil Loss 5,334 million tonnes

Shifted about 61% (much deposited in rivers)

Lost to sea29%

Deposited in dams10%

India has lowest per capita land availability in the World but still losses it freely.

Page 31: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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The Land Loss-where ?

Estimated at National Level causes :• Water logging 3.08 Million Ha • Soil alkalinisation and salinisation 2.4 Million Ha • Mining operations• Large dams and urbanisation has diverted couple of millions of

hectares of agricultural land for non-agricultural purpose• Mineral Mining … production (in rupees) has increased nearly 50 fold

in the last 30 years several million hectares of good crop and forest lands have been destroyed by mining operations and hundreds of villages have been depopulated

• Administration and Governance based :Absence of effective afforestation and unscientific water and land management practices under Command Areas of major projects

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The Trend in AP

• Closely tracks the National trend • According to a World Bank study in India land

degradation accounts for between 4.0 percent and 6.3 percent productivity loss in total agricultural output every year - which amounts to US $1.5 - 2.4 billion.

• Irrigation projects and Water shed projects with political rather than scientific rationale

• Command area of most of the large dams in A.P. are increasingly becoming saline, waterlogged and alkaline apart from reservoirs getting stilted up. This reduces their life and lowers productivity of the land.

Page 33: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

FORESTS ROLE:

Filter the air and moderate local climate.

Factors such as temperature, humidity, wind, speed and rainfall. Store carbon which otherwise might contribute to global warming.

Affect flow of water on and in the ground.

Serve as moisture reservoirs.

Contribute to soil production and prevent soil erosion,

Provide habitat for a huge range of living organisms.

Provide much needed oxygen, timber, medicines.

Help in preventing floods, drought, water logging, salinisation and alkalisation.

Page 34: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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Change in the Forest Cover of India

Page 35: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

WATER BALANCE OF A NATURAL SHOLA FOREST

Rain 1345 mm

Transportation 540 mm (40%)

Interception ( 35%)

Runoff 335 mm (25%)

Infiltration 217 mm/hr

Role of ForestsRole of Forests

Forests play an extremely important role in controlling floods by

reducing and/or regulating water runoff;

increasing infiltration of water into the soil; and,

reducing soil erosion and landslides

Page 36: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

Government flood control measures mainly consist of dams and embankments.

All these efforts have failed to control floods.

Dams have themselves become an important cause of floods.

Embankment have disrupted the natural drainage system in flood plains.

Deforestation and siltation of rivers has also compounded problem.

NATURAL DISASTERSFLOOD - PRONE AREA

(million hectares)

Page 37: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

SOCIAL IMPACT OF EMBANKMENTS

Embankments encourage human occupation of the flood plains by instilling a false sense of security. When rivers in spate breach the embankments a tidal wave hits the villages nearby

Page 38: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF EMBANKMENTS

Unembanked river

Unembanked river in flood

Embanked river in flood

Higher flood levels due to reduced flood plain and increased siltation

Rise in river bedReduced natural fertility

Page 39: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

The Causes of Drought

Overexploitation of forests

Overexploitation of Grazing lands

Overexploitation of Ground water

Neglect of tanks

Inequitable distribution of canal irrigation water

Drought is the combined result of the neglect and over-exploitation of common environmental resources - essentially the systems that provided a cushion against the problems caused by dry periods

Page 40: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

The Impact of DroughtThe Impact of DroughtAcute Acute Shortages Shortages of Fodderof Fodder

Sharp Decline in Sharp Decline in Agricultural Agricultural ProductionProduction

Acute Acute ShortagesShortages

of Drinking of Drinking WaterWater

Acute Acute ShortagesShortages

of Alternative of Alternative OccupationsOccupations

Page 41: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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Drought Prone Areas of India

Page 42: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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States under Drought Prone Area Programme

Page 43: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

•Cyclone are another types of Natural disaster which is on the rise.

•They bring with them rising wind storms and inundation by tidal

waves.

•Coastal erosion gets aggravated due to this phenomena.

•Evidence of permanent land submergence along Indian coast is

substantial.

•The global warming is threatening permanent submergence of many

of the coastal cities of the world including India.

Cyclones –A natural Disaster common to the Coastal corridoor.

Page 44: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

Climate Change

Climate change reflects abnormal variation to hurt climate and subsequent affect on other parts of the earth, such as in the ice capes over duration ranging from decades to millions of years.

In recent usage climate change usually refers to changes in modern climate or global warming.

Since industrial revolution began about 150 years ago, human activities have added significant quantities of green house gases to the atmosphere. This could lead to greater warming which in turn can impact accelerated climate change.

Page 45: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

Climate Change –GHG gasses

Between Pre-industrial period and 2005, global atmospheric concentration of GHG gasses increases have been as follows :

Carbon dioxide : 280 ppm to 379 ppm,

Methane : 715 ppb to 1774 ppb

Nitrous oxide : 270 ppb to 309 ppb

Reference (IPCC 2007).

IPCC Report 2007 predicts global temperature raise by 2 - 4.5oC by the end of this century.

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India’s share in Global CO2 Emissions

Page 47: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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Possible impact of climate change on India. Vulnerable

Represent an additional stress on ecological and

socioeconomic systems that are already facing

tremendous pressures due to rapid urbanization,

industrialization and economic development.

With its huge and growing population, a 7500-km long

densely populated and low-lying coastline, and an

economy that is closely tied to its natural resource base,

India is considerably vulnerable to the impacts of climate

change.

Page 48: Cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg1 The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay

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Possible impact of climate change on India

The various studies conducted in the country have shown that:

• The surface air temperatures in India are going up at the rate of 0.4oC

per hundred years, particularly during the post-monsoon and winter

season.

• Using predictive models, its concluded that mean winter temperatures

will increase by as much as 3.2oC in the 2050s and 4.5oC by 2080s,

due to Greenhouse gases.

• Summer temperatures will increase by 2.2oC in the 2050s and 3.2oC in

the 2080s.

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Possible impact of climate change on India .. contd

• Extreme temperatures and heat spells have already become common

across India specially in the plains of the North ,leading to loss of

human life.

• In 1998 alone, 650 deaths occurred in Orissa due to heat waves.

• Erratic Seasonal weather patterns

• Delayed Monsoons

• Floods and Droughts simultaneously in different parts of the Country.

--Water wars in MP /UP droughts in Assam , floods in AP , Bihar

• Food insecurity

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• Climate change has had an effect on the Monsoons.

• India and indian Economyu is heavily dependent on the monsoon to meet its agricultural and water needs, keeping 70%of its population in Rural areas Employed enabling Social Sustainability and also for protecting and propagating its rich biodiversity.

• Subtle changes have already been noted in the monsoon rain patterns

• by scientists at IIT, Delhi. They also warn that India will experience a decline in summer rainfall by the 2050s,

• summer rainfall accounts for almost 70% of the total annual rainfall over India and is crucial to Indian agriculture.

• Relatively small climatic changes can cause large water resource problems, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions such as northwest India.

• This will have an impact on agriculture, drinking water and on generation of hydro-electric power.

Possible impact of climate change on India .Cont...

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Possible impact of climate change on India .Cont...

• Apart from monsoon rains, India uses perennial rivers, which originate

and depend on glacial melt-water in the Hindukush and Himalayan

ranges.

• Since the melting season coincides with the summer monsoon season,

any intensification of the monsoon is likely to contribute to flood

disasters in the Himalayan catchment.

• Rising temperatures will also contribute to the raising of snowline,

reducing the capacity of this natural reservoir, and increasing the risk

of flash floods during the wet season.

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• Increased temperatures will impact agricultural production,

• Higher temperatures reduce the total duration of a crop cycle by inducing early flowering, thus shortening the ‘grain fill’ period.

• The shorter the crop cycle, the lower the yield per unit area.

• A trend of sea level rise of 1 cm per decade has been recorded along the Indian coast.

• Sea level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water in the Indian Ocean is expected to be about 25-40 cm by 2050.

• This could inundate low lying areas, drown coastal marshes and wetlands, erode beaches, exacerbate flooding and increase the salinity of rivers, bays and aquifers.

Possible impact of climate change on India .Cont...

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• Deltas will be threatened by flooding, erosion and salt

intrusion.

• Loss of coastal mangroves will have an impact on fisheries.

• The major delta area of the Ganga, Brahmaputra and Indus

rivers, which have large populations reliant on riverine

resources will be affected by changes in water regimes, salt

water intrusions and land loss.

Possible impact of climate change on India .Cont...

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• Increase in temperatures will result in shifts of lower

altitude tropical and subtropical forests to higher altitude

temperate forest regions, resulting in the extinction of

some temperate vegetation types.

• Decrease in rainfall and the resultant soil moisture stress

could result in drier teak dominated forests replacing sal

trees in central India.

• Increased dry spells could also place dry and moist

deciduous forests at increased risk from forest fires.

Possible impact of climate change on India .Cont...

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Health and Lifestyle

• Medical Science suggests that the rise in temperature and change in humidity will

adversely affect human health in India.

• Heat stress could result in heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heal stroke, and damage

physiological functions, metabolic processes and immune systems.

• Increased temperatures can increase the range of vector borne diseases such as

malaria, particularly in regions where minimum temperatures currently limit pathogen and

vector development.

Possible impact of climate change on India .Cont...

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India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change –The mitigation plan

National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) outlines existing

and future policies and programmes addressing climate mitigation and

adaptation.

The Plan was launched in the year 2008 and identifies eight core

National Missions through 2017 and directs Ministries to submit

detailed implementation plans to the Prime Minister’s Council on

climate change.

There is a thrust towards Collaborative and

Integrative efforts to address these problems to resolve in a inclusive

manner

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India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change

The eight core Missions are

National Solar Mission

National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency

National Mission on Sustainable Habitats.

National Water Mission

National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Eco System

National Mission for a Green India

National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture

National Mission on Strategic Knowledge acquisition and

propagation for Climate Change.

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The Ozone Hole

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For nearly a billion years, ozone molecules in the atmosphere have

protected life on Earth from the effects of ultraviolet rays.

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•The ozone layer resides in the stratosphere and surrounds the entire Earth.• UV-B radiation (280- to 315- nanometer (nm) wavelength) from the Sun is partially absorbed in this layer. As a result, the amount of UV-B reaching Earth’s surface is greatly reduced.

• UV-A (315- to 400-nm wavelength) and other solar radiation are not strongly absorbed by the ozone layer.

•Human exposure to UV-B increases the risk of skin cancer, cataracts, and a suppressed immune system.• UV-B exposure can also damage terrestrial plant life, single cell organisms, and aquatic ecosystems.

Human Health impact of Ozone layer Depletion

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The Global Total Ozone Change

(graphical)

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• Satellite observations show a decrease in global total ozone values over more than two decades.

The graph compares global ozone values (annual averages) with the average from the period 1964 to 1980.

• Seasonal and solar effects have been removed from the data. On an average, global ozone decreased each year between 1980 and the early 1990s.

• The decrease worsened during the few years when volcanic aerosol from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991 remained in the stratosphere.

Now global ozone is about 4% below the 1964- to-1980 average.

Estimated Ozone Change ..upto 2004

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•The graph compares ozone changes between 1980 and 2004 for different latitudes.

• The largest decreases have occurred at the highest latitudes in both hemispheres because of the large winter/spring depletion in polar regions. •The losses in the Southern Hemisphere are greater than those in the Northern Hemisphere because of the Antarctic ozone hole.

• Long-term changes in the tropics are much smaller because reactive

halogen gases are less abundant in the tropical lower stratosphere.

Estimated Ozone Change ..upto 2004

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Environmentally Sound and Sustainable Development (ESSD)

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A graphic presentation of the long term benefits accruing from Environmentally Sound and Sustainable Development (ESSD) as against the short-sighted perspective of current development models.

GN

P

Current Development Pattern

Environmentally sound and sustainable development

Time

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The Government Policy Rollout

What is the local administration and governmental approach ? Understanding ?

Concern ?Are we being served ?

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POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Environmental protection to be given higher prioritythan now. Presently it accounts only 2% of the total plan

outlay.

1. Environment policy is to be a statutory requirement.

2. PCB need to be strengthened to have tighter enforcement. It also need be allowed a free hand in enforcing law against defaulters.

3. Future industrial estates to be located only after zoning exercise. Industrial estates should have common conveyance and treatment and storage facilities.

4. Periodic assessment and reporting of state of environment should be an important activity of Govt.

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5. Solid and Bio-medical Waste Management need to be put on more scientific footing. This requires some major decisions by Government with both financial and regulatory implications. Privatisation of collection and safe disposal need to be encouraged.

6. Automobile pollution requires some strong action on part of Transport Department. Legal framework is available, only enforcement need to be stepped up.

7. Legislation on abstraction of ground water need to be implemented vigorously.

8. All Coastal line needs massive effort to implement coastal zone Management Plan and CRZ Regulations, which is not being done effectively now.

9. Organic fertilizers & pesticides need to be more popularised to reduce contamination of food ad water.

Environmentally Sound Policy Initiatives ….what we can do and influence

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10. Activation of District Environment Committees, and setting up of Inter Departmental Co-ordination Committee at state level with Chief Secretary as

theChairman.

11. Intensive drive for soil conservation and ground water recharging schemes by involving public and farmers.

12. Land use planning and its strict implementation. Lakes to be protected from encroachments and land use conversion. No residential or industrial activity be allowed within a radius of 10 kms of its catchment area.

13. Ecological approach to flood management than engineering solutions are better ways of tackling floods.

14. A massive greening of the country and Forest Conservation Policies to be perused. Compensatory afforestation should be must for every development activity including Government’s.

Environmentally Sound Policy Initiatives ….what we can do and influence

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15. Fuel wood demand is to be substituted by alternate source of energy and action plan in this regard is needed and implemented.-Agencies working on various initiatives

16. Scientific land water management practices under the command area of all major irrigation projects.

17. Energy conservation may save as much as 40% of power generated. Energy efficient engines/motors only be allowed to be sold in the market. A minimum of 20% of conservation from forest land be imposed on each industrial/commercial user by legal instrument.

18. All the 8 Missions under National Action Plan for climate change have to be implemented as per the time schedule being tracked at the PMO.

Environmentally Sound Policy Initiatives ….what we can do and influence

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19.Better International co-operation for convincing and forcing the developed world for better environmental compliance.Indian commitment to align to UNFCC and lead discussions into Copenhagen this year ..as a a thought and action leader –being looked forward to .

20.An intensive drive for environmental education , sensitivity and

awareness throughout the nation and state, need to be launched.

Environmentally Sound Policy Initiatives ….

what we can do and influence

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Time to wake up

Act now or else !!

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Future shape of things to come if we don’t “Act Now” will be:

• Polluted Air to breath.• Polluted and scarce water to drink.• Polluted food leading to health hazards and genetic

changes.• Degraded land and reduced per unit of production.• Increase in drought and floods and other natural disasters.• Spurt of diseases.• Low life expectancy.• Strain on health care system.• Reduced human productivity and low GNP/GDP.

The heavy environmental debt we create today will be passed on to our future generation which they will be never able to repay. Do we want to burden them with this ?

Choice is in the hand of the people and the Govt. they form !.

Dangers of further delay –huge socio/political /human /livelihood impacts

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Climate change poses threats to India beyond the sphere of environment as passages opened up by the melting snows in the northern Himalayas could be used by terrorists to infiltrate into the country

Eminent environmentalist RK Pachauri.

Climate Change and Terrorism

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Our Actionable points

What can I/we do to do my bit !!

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We need to take Charge NowLook at ourselves as the “karta “

• Solution is Within us !!• No amount of Govt. intervention will completely

solve the problem. • Self-realization and conservation/protection

measures at each individual level will help in saving this planet.

• Self adoption of Mitigation and conservation practices

• Stop talking and act !

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ISR –individual Social ISR –individual Social ResponsibilityResponsibility

• Individual social responsibility is interlinked with corporate social responsibility. An individual (employee) has to contribute his best to fulfill the corporate social responsibility for its economic social and environmental goals (triple bottom line). Without individual contribution company cannot achieve its goals.

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Your life style and carbon emissionYour life style and carbon emission

For instance your action in using an

• Choice of transportation –Public vs personal , walking and cycling vs Scooter/car etc

• Choice of Deposable vs Reusable -bags /glasses e.g• Air conditioner (2.5 tonne) emits 3 kilograms of carbon dioxide (CO2),

• A microwave oven generates 1.3 kg of CO2

• A geyser emits 3.3 kg of carbon, an hour.

• A car that gives a mileage of 10 kilometers per liter of petrol leaves 232 grams of CO2 per km.

• Your computers, music stereo systems, TVs, DVDs, fans, vacuum cleaners, dish washers, radio sets, iPods, hair dryers, washing machines, refrigerators, bread toasters, blenders, mixers, electrical rice cookers, heaters, electric stoves and electric shavers, motor cycle, cars and your travel on aero plane

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How else you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?How else you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?

• The United Nations urged the world to kick its addiction to carbon dioxide on World Environment Day, and said everyone must take steps to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to fight climate change. It recommends the following for anyone keen to shrink their carbon footprint.

• Wake up with a traditional wind-up alarm clock, not an electronic one: save almost 48 grams (g) of carbon dioxide (Co2) each day.

• Brush with a a non-electric toothbrush; avoid nearly 48 g of Co2 emissions

• Replace a 45-minute workout on a treadmill with a jog in a nearby park; save nearly 1kg of carbon.

• Heat bread rolls in a toaster, not an oven, for 15 minutes; save nearly 170g f Co2.

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• Take the train rather than the car to the office: a distance of as little as 8 km can save 1.7kg of CO2.

• Shut down your computer and flat screen during the lunch break and when you leave work: this cuts Co2 emissions generated by these appliances by one-third.

• Install a water-saving shower head. This will save 10 liters of water per minute and halve CO2 emissions of a three-minute hot shower.

• Switch from regular 60-Watt light bulbs to energy saving compact fluorescent lamps.

• Dry clothes on a washing line instead of a tumble dryer: knock 2.3kg of CO2 off your total.

• Pack a light suitcase: world savings of 2million tonnes of CO2 a year are possible if every airline passenger cuts their baggage to below 20kg and buys duty free goods on arrival.

How else you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?How else you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?

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How you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?How you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?

• Use energy efficient appliance in your house and use CFL bulb which will reduce less power consumption and less emissions. Use energy efficient computers and modern automatic electrical system, which switch off lights when you are not in the room.

• Use solar water heater, with this your co2 emissions are zero as you are using renewable energy. Renewable energy like solar and wind energy are best to reduce carbon foot prints. The unit cost of energy production is costlier in case of solar energy and wind energy but they are green energies.

• Use public transport or shared transports with your colleagues when you go to office, this will reduce your emission levels.

• Use bicycle to commute nearby places.

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How you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?How you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?• Plant trees,(Carbon sink) plants will absorb carbon dioxide

from the atmosphere through carbon sequestration and this will reduce Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, reduce your individual carbon foot prints and reduce climate change.

• A tree gives direct and indirect benefit. Trees are natural sink to pollutants especially Carbon dioxide.

• A 50 year old tree generates Rs.5.30 Lakhs worth of oxygen. Recycles Rs.6.50 Lakhs worth of soil fertility and controls soil erosion. Creates Rs.10.50 Lakhs worth of air pollution control. Provides shelter worth of Rs.5.30 Lakhs to birds & animals. Besides it provides food, flowers, fruits, fiber, medicines, oils lumber etc. Of course the elegant beauty to the world.

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• Evangelise/ Educate employees ,family members , relatives and general public to practice eco friendly practices (green practices) in day to day life, this will help lessen emission and save planet.

• Reduce, Recycle and Reuse -The 3 important Rs are to be practised if one wants to individually contribute towards carbon foot prints.

How else you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?How else you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?

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• Use a clothesline instead of a dryer• According to the US Dept of Energy an electric dryer can use

between 1800-5000 watts of power. You can save this energy when you air dry your clothes out.

• Start a carpool• Star a carpool with your friends. Sharing a ride will reduce

carbon dioxide emissions.• GO vegetarian once a week• Eat one less meat-based meal a week will help not only the planet

but also your diet. It requires 2,500 gallons of water to produce one pound of beef.

• Save wood and paper• Return unwanted mail and ask for your name to be removed from

the mailing list. Use email for your bills.• Buy fresh foods instead of frozen• Use fresh foods and save energy. Frozen food uses 10 times more

energy to produce.

How else you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?How else you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?

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How you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?How you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?

• Recycle plastic• Recycling plastic saves twice as much energy as burning it in an incinerator.• Switch off electric appliances before going on holiday• Going on holiday. Unplug as many electric appliances as possible, to save

electricity, before going on vacation.• Take a shorter shower• Every two minutes you save on your shower can conserve more than ten gallons

of water.• Recycle glass• Recycled glass reduces related air pollution by 20% and related water pollution

by 50%.

• Use CFC free productsUse CFC free productsUse CFC free products. ChloroFluoroCarbons destroy the ozone layer, which Use CFC free products. ChloroFluoroCarbons destroy the ozone layer, which protects us from harmful UV rays.protects us from harmful UV rays.Plant more treesPlant more treesPlant more trees. A single tree can absorb one ton of carbon dioxide over its Plant more trees. A single tree can absorb one ton of carbon dioxide over its lifetime.lifetime.

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Clean AC filter every monthClean AC filter every monthClean AC filter every month. A dirty air filter reduces airflow. Clean Clean AC filter every month. A dirty air filter reduces airflow. Clean filters enable the unit to cool down quickly and use less energy.filters enable the unit to cool down quickly and use less energy.Reuse shopping bagReuse shopping bagReuse your shopping bag. When shopping, it saves energy and waste Reuse your shopping bag. When shopping, it saves energy and waste to use a reusable bag instead of accepting a disposable one in each to use a reusable bag instead of accepting a disposable one in each shop.shop.Avoid drinking bottled waterAvoid drinking bottled waterAvoid drinking bottled water. Where possible, avoid bottled water as Avoid drinking bottled water. Where possible, avoid bottled water as it has large environmental and economic costs associated with plastic it has large environmental and economic costs associated with plastic bottles and transport.bottles and transport.Strengthen public transport systemsStrengthen public transport systemsStrengthen public transport systems. Make public transport safe, Strengthen public transport systems. Make public transport safe, convenient and affordable. Take care in selecting vehicles to minimize convenient and affordable. Take care in selecting vehicles to minimize their impact on emissions.their impact on emissions.

How else you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?How else you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?

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Defrost old fridges and freezers regularlyDefrost old fridges and freezers regularly. Even better is to replace them with newer models, which all have automatic defrost cycles and are generally up to twice as energy-efficient as their predecessors.

Stop household burning of rubbishStop household burning of rubbish. Household burning of rubbish adds to emissions and risks releasing toxic chemicals into the atmosphere.

Shade your homeYou can reduce air-conditioning energy use by as much as 40% by shading your home's windows and walls.

How else you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?How else you reduce carbon foot prints as an individual?

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Consumerism and Rich people to Consumerism and Rich people to blame for carbon emission: Studyblame for carbon emission: Study

• The study by a group of researchers from the Princeton University comes at a time when the developed and developing countries are yet to agree on carbon emission caps, which would help in tackling climate change.

• Most of the world's emissions come disproportionately from the wealthy citizens of the world, irrespective of their nationality.

• Wealth is related to Consumerism ..so Consumerism is actually the real culprit ..we need to change attitude !

• It is estimate that in 2008, half of the world's emissions came from just 700 million people.

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Bill of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (the Bill).Bill of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (the Bill).

• Emission allowances

• The key feature of the Bill is the issue of ‘Emission Allowances’ to those who emit GHGs . The emitters include electricity generators, fuel producers and importers, natural gas distributors, geological sequestration sites to trap carbon dioxide and stationary industrial sources.

• They will have to hold as many emission allowances as are required to cover their emissions. The allowances will be issued free by the Secretary, Energy and may cover the requirements of the emitters fully to start with.

• Thus, in 2012, a total of 4,770 million allowances would be issued and this figure would go up to 5,391 in 2016. But from 2017 onwards there will be a progressive reduction in the number of such free allowances, shrinking to 1,035 million in 2050.

• The emitters would get less and less free allowances as the years go by and the balance will have to be made good by procuring allowances from the market. Failure to hold the requisite number of allowances corresponding to the emissions would invite stiff penalties.

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Bill of the American Clean Energy and Bill of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (the Bill).Security Act of 2009 (the Bill).

• Renewable credits

• To encourage energy generation from renewable sources, such generators would be given “Renewable Energy Credits” (RECs), which can be traded in the market. Every year, a retail supplier of electricity generated from conventional sources such as coal, in addition to his normal obligation to hold enough emission allowances, will have to surrender to the Secretary, Energy, a prescribed number of RECs.

• Thus in 2012, he will have to surrender RECs equivalent to 6 per cent of the energy sold and the figure would go up to 25 per cent in the years 2025 to 2039. Needless to say, the RECs will have to be procured either directly from their holders or from the market.

• The Bill is indeed a comprehensive attempt to green the US energy scene and demonstrate to the world community the US’ intentions to adopt “measurable, verifiable and reportable” steps to cut back the country’s GHG emissions in a phased manner and help achieve, by 2050, a level of mitigation that would, hopefully, keep the global temperature rise to within 2 degrees Celsius.

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Non conventional energy optionsNon conventional energy options

• To be exercised-example Solar/Sun energy from Sahara Desert may To be exercised-example Solar/Sun energy from Sahara Desert may light up Europe’s homeslight up Europe’s homes

• There is plenty of sun and plenty of space in the deserts of North Africa. An area of 65,000 square kilometers – could meet the energy needs of the entire world. And 125 kilometers by 125 kilometers would be enough for Europe.

• Solar thermal power makes use of parabolic mirrors to collect sunlight to create heat which is used to produce steam to drive turbines and electricity generators. Using high voltage direct current transmission lines, the energy could then be transferred to Europe where.

• It could supply 15 per cent of the continent's electricity needs by 2020.400 billion Euro project Desertec track www.clubofrome.com

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Technology of the future: Solar thermal power plants with panels reflecting light up to a central tower – the Mojave Desert , California/Spain /Africa

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Back to our Vedas..

Karmanye vaadhika raste ,maa phaleshu kadachana

maa karma phalhethur bhooma mateh sangostwakarmini ...

Om shanti shanti Shanti ….

• Do your duty without having an eye on the fruits of the same if actions are right results also will follow ..

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Act on it to mitigate the effects of climate change and environmental degradation

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Center for Climate Change and Environment Advisory

(CCCEA)Presented by

Dr. Vp Jauhari –Chairman and DG Sanjay Gadhalay -CEO

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