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cbrn - assessing the threat

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May 15, 2003 Chemical-Biological-Radiological-Nuclear terrorism *  Assessing the Threat Yaron Schwartz and Ophir Falk Within the gamut of terrorism’s longtime familiar perils, the events of 11 September 2001 constituted a shift in the paradigm of the character of terrorist attacks: it is currently no longer a speculation whether terrorists are consciously willing to kill thousands of innocent people in the wake of their attacks. The equation Capabilities + Intentions = Probable Threat has now become less ambiguous, for 9/11 clearly demonstrated that the terrorists’ intentions to cause damage of epic proportions constitute a clear and present danger. In that respect, this paradigm shift is a “wake-up call” for facing the real threat of Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN)-Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) terrorism. In the past, the essence of terrorism was to disseminate fear and make a political statement through violence. It was a political act designed to influence an audience, thus levels of violence were calculated so as to draw attention but not to be so high as to alienate supporters or trigger overwhelming response from authorities. That continues to be a main theme of “common” or “old-school” terrorism. However, in so- called postmodern or mega-terrorism, the aim is to maximize the number of casualties . [1] This reflects a fundamental shift in the goal of terrorists, from trying to make a  political statement through violence, to combining that pretext with the maximization of damage to the target as an additional or often primary goal . Such terrorists may be motivated by nihilistic ethnic or religious considerations, among others. A Department of Defense report suggested that as many as 25 countries have or are in the process of acquiring weapons of mass destruction. [2] CIA Director George Tenet testified before the US congress that terrorists currently rely on conventional explosives by-and-large, but that a number of groups are seeking chemical, biological, radiological strike capacity (al-Qaeda stands out as the most familiar example). [3] Conversely, Dr. David Franz—former Commander of the U.S. Army Medical Institution for Infectious Diseases—argued that “an effective, mass-casualty producing attack *  This paper was published on the website of the Internation al Policy Institute for Counter- Terrorism (ICT). More information can be obtained by contacting [email protected]  

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