1

CBIA EPC New England Energy Supply Outlook

Thomas SantaSanta Energy Corporation

October 18th, 2013

2

New England Energy Supply Outlook

• NE Market Overviews– Natural Gas– Distillate Fuel– Electricity

• National Outlook• Conclusions

3

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Industrial Gas

Commercial Gas

Total Gas

Residential Gas

Nat

ural

Gas

% S

hare

of O

Il/Ga

s Mar

ket

Connecticut Natural Gas Market ShareSource: USDOE-EIA

4

Volume USDOE/EIA

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Residential

Oil (Gal) 520,078,000 460,374,000 534,600,000 450,853,000 418,346,000 Gas (CCF) 433,480,000 429,350,000 439,950,000 427,290,000 447,190,000 Gas (Eq_GAL) 320,806,498 317,750,000 325,594,765 316,225,451 330,952,888

CommercialOil (Gal) 111,648,000 93,350,000 90,979,000 85,802,000 87,188,000 Gas (CCF) 359,630,000 376,660,000 397,310,000 406,560,000 448,320,000 Gas (Eq_GAL) 266,152,166 278,755,596 294,038,087 300,883,755 331,789,170

Industrial Oil (Gal) 28,459,000 8,857,888 24,138,000 9,527,000 8,290,000 Gas (CCF) 227,940,000 225,390,000 245,850,000 241,170,000 259,140,000

Gas (Eq_GAL) 168,692,058 166,804,874 181,946,751 178,483,213 191,782,310 Total

Oil (Gal) 660,185,000 562,581,888 649,717,000 546,182,000 513,824,000 Gas (CCF) 1,021,050,000 1,031,400,000 1,083,110,000 1,075,020,000 1,154,650,000 Gas (Eq_GAL) 755,650,722 763,310,469 801,579,603 795,592,419 854,524,368

State of ConnecticutOil & Natural Gas Consumption by Sector

5

Monthly Average Natural Gas Flows North into New England on Algonquin Transmission Pipeline

6

Annual Average Henry Hub Spot Natural Gas Prices1990-2040 (2011 Dollars per Million Btu)

7

Henry Hub Natural Gas Price

8

Spectra AIM Project- Nov. 2016450,000 mcf/day

9

Tennessee Gas PipelineCT Expansion Project – 72,000 mcf/Day - Due Late 2016TGP Northeast Expansion- 0.5-1.7Bcf/Day- Dec. 2016Wright to Dracut- 0.5-1.0Bcf/Day- TBD 2017

10

2013 New England Natural Gas Supply AdditionsDeep Panuke- 300,000mcf/day

11

2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

New England Distillate StocksOctober 2005-2013 (Barrels x 1000)

12

Monthly Heating Oil and Brent Crude Oil PricesDollars Per Gallon

13

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Connecticut 3,000 500 500 500 500 15 Maryland 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 Maine 3000-5000 3000-5000 3000-5000 50 50 15 Massachusetts 3,000 500 500 500 500 15 New Hampshire 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 New Jersey 2000-3000 500 500 15 15 15 New York 15 15 15 15 15 15 Pennsylvania 3,000 3,000 3,000 500 500 500 Rhode Island 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Vermont 20,000 500 500 500 500 15

Heating Oil Sulfur Requirement by State 2013-2018Sulfur Content in PPM

14

Natural Gas’s Annual Share of Total Electricity Sales in New England

15

Vermont Yankee’s Percent of New England Electricity Sales

16

Unit Name Operating (OP)/Renewed License Date

License Expiration

DateReactor Type

Electrical Output (MWe)

(a)

Reactor Vendor/Type

Millstone 2 September 26, 1975/November 28, 2005 July 31, 2035 Pressurized

water 884Combustion Engineering

(vendor)

Millstone 3 January 31, 1986/November 28,2005

November 25, 2045

Pressurized water 1,227 Westinghouse/

four-loop

Pilgrim June 8, 1972/May 29, 2012 June 8, 2032 Boiling water 685 General Electric/

type 3

Seabrook OP: March 15, 1990 March 15, 2030 Pressurized water 1,295 Westinghouse/

four-loop

Vermont Yankee

March 21, 1972/March 21, 2012 March 21, 2032 Boiling water 510 General Electric/

type 4

New England Nuclear Fleet- 2013

17

Current Spot Prices Oct 2013- Delivered to large commercial userDollars Per million BTUs

Natural Gas Propane Heating Oil $-

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

18

19

U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas by Source1990-2040 (trillion cubic feet)

20

Weekly U.S. Net Imports of Total Petroleum Products

21

4-Week Average U.S. Exports Propane & Propylene

22

Conclusions

• New England rapidly adjusting to the new US supply equation

• The Ct state government aggressively promoting a mono-fuel state

• Connecticut in a precarious energy supply position through 2016

• Oil/Gas/ Propane cost relationships will not hold at current levels.

23Santa Energy Corporation

Thank You!