Causality Loop

The Risk of Human Activity

Brandon Gustafson

General Description

• Given Population• Participates in

activities which increase welfare

• Goods and Services are in demand to provide for these activities

• Goods and services require materials

General Description

• Materials flow causes pollution of varying concentrations

• Pollutants at varying concentrations have varying effects

• Each effect posses different risks to humans

General Description

• These risks in turn effect our welfare

• Our welfare being effected causes us to develop policy for action

• These actions lead to a changes in our activity

The Risk of Human Activity

Key Features

• The entire process functions in a loop

• Each action is connected to overall welfare

• Overall welfare affects future action

• Ideally an equilibrium is reached between increased welfare from action and decreased welfare from risk

Example

• People like to consume electricity

• They use it to increase their personal utility or welfare everyday

• To meet the demands power companies have to generate enough electricity

California Electricity

• 33.9 Million people used 78 TWh of electricity in 2000 in California

• 61.9 kWh per dollar ($) GSP• Or, 2300 kWh per person

California Pollution

• Raw materials such as coal and other fossil fuels flow to power production plants

• Pollution is produced• Pollution per kWh is listed below for 8 major

pollutants

CO2

lbs/kWh

NOx

lbs/kWh

SO2

lbs/kWh

Hg

lbs/kWh

PM10

lbs/kWh

PM2.5

lbs/kWh

VOC

lbs/kWh

CO

lbs/kWh

California 1.185 0.000963 .000319 1x10-10 0.000020 0.000019 0.000061 0.000401

California Concentration

• Table depicts the amount of pollution per person• This type of pollution can lead to concentration

levels of as much as 10 ppb in smoggy LA

CO2

lbs

NOx

lbs

SO2

lbs

Hg

lbs

PM10

lbs

PM2.5

lbs

VOC

lbs

CO

lbs

California 2725.5 2.2149 0.7337 2.3x10-7 0.046 0.0437 0.1403 0.9223

California Effects

• The effects of these pollutants are mild and severe

• Respiratory problems to simply impaired visibility

• Especially the young, the old, and the asthmatic

California Risks

• The risk depends on the person

• Each year 50,000 people are estimated to have died from air pollution

• Those with lung conditions already are at the greatest risk

• Although, we are all at elevated risk at these concentrations

Welfare to Action

• Reduced health and death reduce welfare

• Reduced welfare spurs action

• Governmental agencies set pollution limits

• California Air Resources Board website goes online

Types of Actions

• To increase welfare and/or reduce risk

• Reducing the population would reduce risk

• Reducing activity will decrease risk but also decrease welfare

• Use less materials

• Output lower concentrations of pollutants

• Output pollutants that have less effect and associated risk

Summary

• The Causation Loop of Human Activity is a self-balancing cycle

• Human welfare is adjusted up and down respectively by increased human activity which leads to increased risk

• Ideally an equilibrium is reached by action and counter action

• There are many ways that people are working on to react to the current situation