catherine thomasson, md physicians for social responsibility

Climate Change and Conflict

Catherine Thomasson, MD

Physicians for Social Responsibility

Risk Factors for Conflict

• Competition for scarce resources• Migration• Partial social structures/gov’t control• Demographic & economic inequities • Gender inequality, youth bulge/unemployment• Abundance of lootable resources

Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013

3

How Climate Change Affects Environmental Resources

Climate Change

Deforestation

Degradation of farm land

erosion, nutrient depletion,

compacting, salinization, loss to urbanization

↑ runoff rates

Changed hydro cycles

transpiration rates, soil moisture, precipitation

patterns

Erosion, silting

More frequent droughts,

floods

Sea level riseExtreme weather

events

Infestation

Reduced irrigation capacity

Overuse, pollution of

water supplies

Coastal flooding, damage

water, food

Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999


Water Availability

• 2.3 billion people live in water stressed areas

• 1.7 billion live in water scarce areas*

By 2025: 3.5 billion people projected to live in water stressed areas• 2.4 billion in water

scarce areas*

By 2100: 1/3 world risk of extreme drought**


*UNEP // **Burke et.al. Journal of Hydrometeorology Sept. 2006

Food Supply and Climate Change

• Grain yields by 10% for every 1°C in global average surface T°

• 2°C to 3°C likely; 3°C to 5°C possible• Therefore 20% to 30% likely;• 30% to 50% possible

5Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013

Syria

• Pop: 22 million• Size of N. Dakota• Hot and dry in summer, rainy and mild in winter• Was a middle income developing country• 11% below the poverty line (0.06% less than U.S.)• 10% of pop in 2007 were refugees (Iraqi, Palestinian,

Lebanese)• Repressive government/some corruption

7

Syria Vegetation Health Index

http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/bgdocs_Erian_Katlan_&_Babah_2010.pdf

From 2006 to 2011:• 60 percent of land affected by

drought • 1 million in 2007 with (75%)

crop loss• Herders sold animals for 60-

70% below original price• Required wheat importation

for first time.• Sandstorms were happening

up to twice a week.

Drought drives significant percentage of 1.3 million who lost 75% of crop in 2007 off land to cities.

Did this cause the civil war?

Global Food Production

Individual Food

SupplyDistribution

Access

CLIMATE CHANGE

AdaptationResilience vs Vulnerability

The Global Food System and Climate Change

Global Food

Supply

ResourcesLandWaterEnergySoilLabor

SectorsAgricultureLivestockWild FisheriesAquaculture

Global Food Production

SectorsAgricultureLivestockWild FisheriesAquaculture

ResourcesLandWaterEnergySoilLabor

Meat consumption PopulationTechnology ConflictPolicies Poverty/InequalityEconomic Development IncomeFood Prices Food Aid

Social, Political & Economic Factors

?


S M Hsiang et al. Science 2013;341:1235367

Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict

• 60 quantitative studies• Associations between

climate variables and conflict over time

Climate and Interpersonal Violence

S M Hsiang et al. Science 2013;341:1235367

Hsiang conclusions: Personal Violence/Crime

and Climate

• More violent behavior in high temperature climates.

• In low-income settings, extreme rainfall events that adversely affect agricultural income are associated with higher rates of personal violence and property crime.

• High temperatures associated with increased property crime, but most with violent crimes

Group-Level Violence and Political Instability

• Intergroup political conflict increases in low-income areas with• Low water availability• Very low temperatures• Very high temperatures.

• Political conflicts often have a direct link a to climate-induced changes in income.

• Reports of effect of climate on conflict is relatively standard: consistent with 35 studies of modern data

and 28 other studies of intergroup conflict.

Slide c/oCL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013

• Kenya: deforestation less rain and more run-off water scarcity hundreds killed in inter-ethnic water wars

• Most water conflict has been intra-national

Gleick’s typology of historicalwater conflicts:

• Control of Water Resources: water supplies or access are at the root of tensions

• Military Target: where water resources/systems are targets of military actions by nations or states

• Military Tool: water resources/systems used as a weapon during a military action

• Political Tool: water resources/systems themselves used for a political goal

• Terrorism: water resources/systems are targets or tools of violence or coercion by non-state actors

• Development Disputes: water resources/systems are a major source of contention/dispute in context of economic development


www.pacinst.org

Environmental Scarcity and Conflict

Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of

Public Health, 2013

Population growth

“Demand-induced scarcity”

Unequal resource access

“Structure-induced scarcity”

Increased environmental

scarcity

Migration, expulsion

Decreased economic

productivity

Weakened states

Ethnic conflicts

Coups d’état

Deprivation conflicts

Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999

↓ water, food

“Supply-induced scarcity”

A Case Study: GazaSupply-induced Scarcity:• Almost all freshwater comes from groundwater• Annual rainfall = 70 - 140 million cubic meters

• 60% of that becomes runoff to Mediterranean or is lost to evaporation

• Only 40% left to recharge single freshwater aquifer• Aquifer is shallow, >90% is contaminated by sewage, agricultural

runoff, and saltwater

• 50-60 million cubic meters = sustainable supply


Consumption of Groundwater in Gaza

Demand-induced scarcity:• Consumption: 3x natural

supply• Population increases


Structural Scarcity• Strict quotas on Palestinian consumption

• Frozen at 1967 levels

• Palestinians: 137m³/person—Israelis: 2000m³/person

• Palestinians prohibited from drilling new wells or repairing

water/sewer infrastructure

• Uneven pricing schemes• Palestinians pay 20 times what Israeli settlers pay for water

• Neighborhood desalination provide fresh drinking water to ~20%

population; rest buy bottled drinking water

Families pay 1/3 their monthly income for waterSlide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013

Dept of Defense Study 2013:• Climate impacts are observable,

measurable, real, and having near and long-term consequences”

• Failure to anticipate and mitigate these changes, the report states, “increases the threat of more failed states with the instabilities and potential for conflict inherent in such failures.”

Environmental Peacemaking

• Scarce resources can be used as a tool

• Cooperate to manage environmental resources • transform insecurities and

• create more peaceful relationships between parties in dispute

• overcome political tensions

• promoting interaction, confidence building, and technical

cooperation -Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Woodrow Wilson International Center

for ScholarsSlide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013

Join Together for Change

www.PSR.org 202-667-4260

Minerva Initiative of the U.S. PentagonEngage scientific community to identify

• Regions of high risk• Elements of climate change related risk

• Food, water, migration, disaster, population, disease• Elements of resilience

• What allows communities faced with catastrophe to NOT devolve into conflict?

• How can the US assist in fostering these elements to prevent future conflict


catherine thomasson, md physicians for social responsibility

Documents

time slide

social responsibility

water scarce areas

global food system

pollution of water

damage water

c likely

c possible