catalyzing energy breakthroughs for a secure american futureproduction consumption million china...
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Catalyzing Energy Breakthroughs for a Secure American Future
Production
Consumption
Million barrels pe
r day
U.S. became a net oil
importer in the 1940s
U.S. became a net oil
importer in the 1940s
China became a net oil
importer in the 1990s
China became a net oil
importer in the 1990s
Both countries now import around half of their oil
Energy security is an increasing concern
Source: Energy Information Administration
Geographical & Resource Constraints
Spending $1B/day to import oil
Population Density
Energy Use
Energy use and population do not correlate
Invent Affordable Clean Energy TechnologiesInvent Affordable Clean Energy Technologies
+
Make Locally
+
Sell Globally
=
American Jobs & Economic Security
How do we win the future?
Pace and Scale of Innovation: 1900‐2000
Artificial Fertilizers & Green Revolution
Polio VaccinationAirplanes
Electrification Nuclear Energy
Transistor & Integrated Circuits Fiber Optic & Wireless Communication Internet
Space
Algae CelluloseCornSugarcane
PhotosyntheticBiofuels
Less than 1% efficient
Advanced Research Projects Agency • Energy
20 40 60 80 100 112
Venezuela Heavy Oil
Deep Water
ArcticSugarcane
EtOHOil Sands (Mining)
Oil Sands (In‐situ)
GTL
CTL
Corn EtOH
Million Barrels of Oil Equivalent per day (MBOE/d)
Tota
l Pro
duct
ion
Cos
t ($/
BO
E)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Source: Analysis based on information from IEA, DOE and interviews with super-majors
Production Cost, per barrel
Biofuels in a Petroleum Context
Marginal Conventional Oil
Oil Shale
Electrofuels
Non‐photosyntheticMicrobes
Sour Crude
Electricity
H2
>10X moreefficient
OPX Biotechnology & North Carolina State University
Plants Engineered to Replace Oil (PETRO)
79 GJ/ha‐yr
Corn
Today
160 GJ/ha‐yr$50/BOE
Future?
Batteries for Electrical Energy Storage for Transportation (BEEST)
Electric cars with longer range and lower life‐cycle cost than gasoline cars
Chicago
St. Louis
300 miles
Lithium‐Oxygen
Metal‐AirMagnesium‐Ion
Lithium‐Sulfur
Lithium‐Ion, Flow Battery
All ElectronBattery
BEEST Competition
2X increasein energy density
3X reduction in cost
BEEST Targets
Lithium‐Oxygen Battery from PolyPlus
Steve Visco
Natural Gas Transportation
?
Clean and Inexpensive ElectricityScaling without subsidies
Sunshot
2017
15‐20¢ 5‐20¢
4‐10¢
NGCC
10‐15¢
Clean Coal
6‐13¢
Nuclear
10‐15¢
Geothermal
Heat Engine Efficiency
5 cents/kWh
Advanced Research Projects Agency • Energy
Aging Infrastructure
“average generating station was built in the 1960s using even older technology.
“average age of a substation transformer is 42, 2 years more than…life span.”Source: Galvin Electricity Initiative
2009 Report Card for America's Infrastructure
Grid‐Level Power Conversion & Storage
10,000 lbs 100 lbs
Today Future
AndSmart!
Cree Inc, North Carolina
$100/kWh $100/kWh
Use anywherein the worldCity University,New York
Advanced Research Projects Agency • Energy 20
• Negligible storage – just in time delivery of power
• Centrally controlled
• Negligible control of path – Joules are indistinguishable
Delivering Electricity
Not the internetCan we ControlPower Flow?
Current Learning Curve
NOWTime
Cost ($)/Performance
ARPA‐E Innovation
ARPA‐E Competition Among Portfolio of Approaches
Supply DemandTransmission & Distribution
Courtesy: Lawrence Livermore National Lab.
How do we measure success?
2013‐15
Beyond 2020
$100M from private sector within 1 year
6 technologies $24M from ARPA‐E
R&D to overcome technology barriers
Private Sector
Fierce Urgency of Now
Envision Engage Evaluate Establish ExecuteInternalResearch& Program Idea
ScientificWorkshop& InternalDebate
Thorough Technical Review
Award Selection & Contracting
Hands‐on Active Project Management
6‐8 months6‐8 months
Speed and Efficiency
Streamlining Innovation Ecosystem:Where is the bottleneck?
US & Global Buyer• Businesses• Consumers• US Gov’t
<$10M(2‐5 yrs)
$10‐100M(5‐10 yrs)
$100M‐1B(>10 yrs)
>$1B
Regulatory Hurdles
Manufacturing Maturity/Scaling
Business Maturity
Tech. R&D
Pilot
Mass Production
SmallBusiness
LargeBusiness
Public/Private Investment &Gov’t Incentives
Private Investment/ Gov’t Loan Guarantees
Capital Markets
Technology Maturity
Advanced Research Projects Agency • Energy
ARPA-E’s Connective Tissue
26
DoD-ARPA-E Partnership•ARPA-E technologies can help DoD in making it more energy efficient•DoD can be first adopters and provide testbed for ARPA-E technologies
Starting a Consortium on Stationary Energy Systems
Energy Ecosystem (>2000 people)• Scientists and engineers• Technology entrepreneurs• CEOs & CTOs of small & large businesses
• Investment community• Other DOE offices & federal agencies
• Congress members & staff• White House staff• NGOs• State regulators and energy R&D representatives
Technology Showcase•100 ARPA‐E funded technologies•100 technologies ARPA‐E could not fund