Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments (CISA)

Work to Support NIDIS

July 31st – August 1st, 2012Wilmington, NC

Regional Integrated Sciences & AssessmentsNOAA’s RISA program supports research that addresses climate sensitive issues in the following areas:

• Water• Fisheries• Wildlife• Agriculture• Public Health• Coastal Management

There are 11 regional programs, including Alaska and the Pacific.

Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments (CISA)

CISA works with a variety of stakeholders to incorporate climate information into water and coastal management, public health, and related decision-making processes.

Southeast Regional Climate CenterNC Sea Grant SC Sea Grant ConsortiumState Climate Offices (NC & SC)Federal, state, local agenciesPrivate sectorNon governmental organizations

Core focus areas:• Drought• Climate and watershed

modeling• Coastal climate• Health• Adaptation

CISA Project Partners• East Carolina University

• Water resources scenarios • National Integrated Drought Information System

• Planning meetings on drought and coastal ecosystems• NOAA, Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular

Research• Monitoring Carolina estuaries for Vibrio

• North Carolina State Climate Office• Drought research project

• South Carolina State Climate Office• Workshops for SC DNR staff working on wildlife action plans

• USGS, SC Water Science Center• Saltwater intrusion scenarios and tool

Dynamic Drought Index Tool (DDIT)• Map

Navigation Tools

• GIS Tools

• Metadata

Assessing Drought Indicators and Triggers

USDM KB

DI

Streamflow

Groundwater

PDSI

SPI6

CMI

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Frequency of Drought Class Severity Measured by Different Indices

Adapted from Mizzell (2009)

Communicating the Certainty of Drought Data

1 = Extreme drought with a large residual (Low certainty)2 = Extreme drought with a minimal residual (High certainty)3 = Extreme drought with a medium residual (Medium certainty)

• Project examined ways to communicate drought data, as well as its corresponding degree of certainty, and tested the effectiveness of different symbols.

• Results to be used in future work to develop decision support tools and maps.

Adapted from Fowler (2010)

• Pee Dee River and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway Salinity Intrusion Model (PRISM)

Assessing the Impact of Saltwater Intrusion in the Carolinas Under Future Climatic and Sea-Level Conditions

Adapted from Conrads (2011)

Understanding Needs for a Drought Early Warning System: Drought Impacts and Stresses on Coastal Ecosystems

• March 2010 workshop• 29 participants: researchers, resource managers, education-

outreach specialists – federal, state, local

• Concerns• Lack of data, knowledge, understanding: hydrological

processes, long-term biological or ecological data, appropriate management tools or actions

• Management: reactive, lack of integration, lack of awareness (public and local decision makers)

• Lack of funding to support monitoring, research

Needs and Preferences: Management• Empirical data that demonstrates drought-

related impacts

• Online decision-support tools to improve access to information

• Coordination or partnerships across organizations

• Public education and outreach – accessible and locally relevant information

Needs and Preferences: Scientific Information and Tools• Long-term datasets

• Science-based models to analyze and link hydrology, ecological impacts, socio-economic variables

• Information regarding climate variability and change impacts on river systems and ecosystems

• Forecasts to indicate estuarine salt water gradients

State of Knowledge Report

•Geographic scope

•About the research

The Impact of Drought on Coastal Ecosystems in the Carolinas

Key Themes and Findings• Coastal ecosystems are vulnerable to long-term

and recurrent severe droughts• Changes in freshwater inflows, salinity

• Difficulties in defining and measuring drought

• Some systems, processes, and locations have been well-studied and researched

• Estuarine systems• Salt marshes• Tidal freshwater forested wetlands• Non-alluvial wetlands

Literature Gaps and Research Needs

• Specific ecosystems and species

• Long-term studies and causal linkages

• Tools, models, and ecological indicators to research and monitor drought

NIDIS Pilot Project in the Carolinas

• Spring 2012• Identified interested organizations, agencies,

individuals• Informal meeting: NOAA in the Carolinas, March 2012• Steering Committee, May - present

• Scoping Workshop (July 31-August 1)• Identify concerns and needs• Identify and/or begin to prioritize key needs• Consider the types of activities needed to support a

drought early warning system: monitoring, applications, communications, related research